Jeez, couldn’t you have found any more Kentucky polls than that, Lance? 
Seriously, thanks.
Vermin Supreme is providing an alternative to Kennedy or Markey.
I think I’ve mentioned it before, but I’ll say it again. 538 makes their data available to anyone so I have written scripts to download their csvs and turn them into databases that I can query against. My scripts can output the results of those queries as markdown tables, so I’m happy to post a table like the one above in response to a reasonably polite request. It’s a handful of clicks and probably takes less than a minute.
We really appreciate it!
There’s a brand new margin of victory market at PredictIt for the MA Senate Dem primary (Markey - Kennedy).
Markey 10%+ is the leading bet out of the gate. Not a great sign for Kennedy.
That primary is five days from now.
If a 20 year veteran combat pilot can’t beat Moscow Mitch then he’s there for life or as long as he wants.
Thanks mainly to McConnell’s declaring the Delivering for America Act DOA in the senate, and also for his Senate Leadership Fund weighing in on the McSally vs. Kelly campaign here in Arizona, I have just donated $100 to Amy McGrath’s* campaign.
Unfortunately, there was no place to leave a comment on McGrath’s donation site but I did leave McConnell a message about what I’d done and why. Maybe he’ll have a stroke.
*How many Irish are in the senate, anyway?
Poll-ee moly! Nine weeks to go.
Weak week for polling. Both are partisan pollsters on top of that.
MA senate primary is today.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 8/27/2020 - 8/28/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 638 V | Al Gross 43% | Dan Sullivan 43% | Even |
| Michigan | 8/14/2020 - 8/23/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1048 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 48% | R + 2% |
And down goes Kennedy! Honestly, he never had a real argument besides “I’m a Kennedy.” Which obviously doesn’t have the punch that it used to.
Sure looks like it. Here’s NPR’s coverage:
Fox News has Kelly up by 17 in Arizona and Cunningham by six in NC among likely voters. Fox News!
You just made my day, flurb.
Say what you will about Fox News the propaganda outlet (oh, look! I just did!), but the Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw&Co Research polling is well-rated by 538 and has tended towards a slight Democratic lean.
You mean a reality lean.
A little of Column A, a little of Column B…
Dallas Morning News/UT-Tyler poll has Cornyn up over Hegar by 11 among likely voters, which is a slight tightening. Lots of undecided and lots of voters who have no idea who either of them are. Still, with the start of early voting in Texas just five weeks away it would take a minor miracle for Hegar to overcome that gap.
Eight weeks until E-day.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 858 RV | Mark Kelly 55% | Martha McSally 38% | D + 17% |
| Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 772 LV | Mark Kelly 56% | Martha McSally 39% | D + 17% |
| Colorado | 8/21/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Morning Consult | 638 LV | John Hickenlooper 48% | Cory Gardner 39% | D + 9% |
| Idaho | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Spry Strategies | 600 LV | Paulette E. Jordan 28% | James E. Risch 53% | R + 26% |
| Michigan | 8/11/2020 - 8/15/2020 | Hodas & Associates | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 53% | John James 39% | D + 14% |
| Michigan | 8/28/2020 - 8/29/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 897 V | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 39% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/1/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Tarrance Group | 569 RV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 46% | D + 1% |
| Minnesota | 8/30/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Harper Polling | 501 LV | Tina Smith 43% | Jason Lewis 41% | D + 2% |
| Minnesota | 9/3/2020 - 9/4/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 877 V | Tina Smith 49% | Jason Lewis 41% | D + 8% |
| New Hampshire | 8/28/2020 - 9/1/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 1889 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 54% | Corky Messner 36% | D + 18% |
| New Hampshire | 8/28/2020 - 9/1/2020 | University of New Hampshire | 1889 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 53% | Don Bolduc 37% | D + 16% |
| New Mexico | 8/26/2020 - 9/2/2020 | Research & Polling Inc. | 1123 LV | Ben Ray Luján 49% | Mark Ronchetti 40% | D + 9% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 8/30/2020 | East Carolina University | 1101 LV | Cal Cunningham 44% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 0% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 804 RV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 40% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 722 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 RV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 45% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 45% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Monmouth University | 401 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 46% | Even |
| Texas | 8/20/2020 - 8/25/2020 | Data for Progress | 2295 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 40% | John Cornyn 46% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 8/28/2020 - 9/2/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 1176 RV | Mary Jennings Hegar 24% | John Cornyn 34% | R + 10% |
| Texas | 8/28/2020 - 9/2/2020 | University of Texas at Tyler | 901 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 28% | John Cornyn 39% | R + 11% |
How come Minnesota Senate isn’t getting more attention? The polling shows a fairly close race, yet I’m not hearing anybody talk about it as a potential R pickup.
It’s obviously not the senate, but Lance_Turbo - any chance you could add IN-05 to your updates when there’s a new poll? That’s my district, and it looks to be pretty close (traditional red district, Susan Brooks is leaving, and the Republican challenger is an odd self-funding Ukrainian business woman). I’d like to finally be voting for a winner here!