I don’t pull down the data set for House polls right now because it is so spotty that I don’t find it useful for any of my projects. That may change in the future.
In the meantime you can easily filter 538’s page to just the race you’re interested in and bookmark that link…
wonder why they bother to poll in states like Idaho where Jesus would probably lose if he ran as a Dem
I know Silver has said in the past that those polls are actually very useful for calibrating models and validating polls in other states. For example, if parts of Colorado are like Idaho demographically then changes in Idaho polling from 2016 to now could help validate changes in Colorado.
I think it also helps validate national polling (a 5-point swing nationally should show up in a smaller swing in Idaho once you account for state demographics).
Which races should we be looking at as the tipping point for the senate, assuming a Biden victory? It seems like the Maine and North Carolina races are probably the most critical, with Arizona and Colorado as the safer bets and Iowa and Montana as the “sugar on top” races. Does that sound about right to you all?
Here’s my PredictIt derived senate thermometer from yesterday, and it agrees with you pretty much bang on. One weird difference is that PredictIt has holding Michigan a little less likely than flipping Colorado and Arizona.
So a 50-50 Senate, with VP Harris as the deciding vote? I’ll take that in a heartbeat.
Be careful what you wish for. A 50-50 split gives the Ds nominal control of the Senate, but unless they ditch the legislative filibuster it doesn’t mean much on policy. And if they did manage to dump the filibuster, now every individual Democratic Senator from Bernie Sanders to Joe Manchin is the deciding vote whose particular desires need to be accommodated. Schumer would have his hands full trying to keep the caucus united.
Agreed, that crafting legislation in a 50-50 Senate will be problematic. But: having the (barest of) majority means that the D’s chair all committees, decide what to investigate and who to subpoena, and best of all: will get President Biden’s* judicial nominees through.
*god willing, please, let it happen, good lord willin’ and the creek dont rise, amen.
51/49 wouldn’t be any better in this regard. It’s definitely time for the filibuster to go. Sure, it means a Democratic minority in the senate could no longer hinder bad Republican legislation. But that’s a very minor benefit. If McConnell or any future Republican leaders really wanted to pass some legislation, assuming a Republican house and POTUS, they would get rid of the filibuster.
I don’t see Democrats reaching 60 senate seats any time soon. Probably not in my lifetime (born in 1977) my daughter’s lifetime (born 2001) and probably not even any potential grandchildren’s lifetime.
Let’s assume Democrats get both senate seats in every state Biden is currently favored in, however slight. That would still be only 26 states / 52 senate seats, and getting to just that point would be a very heavy lift. That would mean two D senators from states like FL, NC, PA, and WI. It would take 4 more states having two Democratic senators each to reach 60. The next four closest states, according to the snake model up at 538, would be Ohio, Georgia, Texas, and Iowa. I can’t imagine a scenario where both senators from that many states, including places like Georgia and Texas, could all go blue. It’ll probably be many decades, if ever, before we reach that point. So yes, getting rid of the filibuster is key.
A 50-50 senate under president Biden allows Schumer to call for a vote on nominees.
A 49-51 senate under Biden allows McConnell to do whatever the fuck he wants regarding nominees. RBG could retire on day one of Biden’s presidency, and Mitch could just leave that seat open until the Dems control the senate or there’s another Republican president.
Getting to 50-50 with a Biden win is huge.
nm nm nm
I know this is a Senate thread, but some interesting goings on in GA-14, where QAnon conspiracist and Republican candidate for U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Democratic opponent has suddenly dropped out of the race for “personal and family reasons.” According to the Georgia Secretary of State, it’s too late to put another D on the ballot. And on top of that, the incumbent in the seat (who chose not to run again) suddenly announced that he’s going to resign early in October.
I can’t help but think there’s something going on here. I wonder if threats from insane QAnon cultists played a role in one or both decisions.
The NC seat up this year was held by Helms for 30 years. Since he retired in 2002 three people have held the seat for 1 term
Liz Dole, Kay Hagan, and now Tillis. If the trend continues Tillis loses this year.
the other NC senate seat has also had several people serve 1 term. East, Sanford, Faircloth,Edwards. Burr is in the seat now since 2004 but he’s not running in 2022.
Yes, that whole thing happening in GA is fishy. I hope someone is looking into it.
In better news, one big QAnon site got shut down after its owner’s identity was discovered:
According to the article, the guy works as an information security analyst at Citigroup. WTF.
Seven weeks until E-day! Jim Inhofe breathes a sigh of relief.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8/30/2020 - 9/4/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 830 LV | Mark Kelly 53% | Martha McSally 38% | D + 15% |
| Arizona | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 470 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | YouGov | 1102 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 7% |
| Arizona | 9/10/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 684 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 5% |
| Colorado | 8/28/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 800 LV | John Hickenlooper 52% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 10% |
| Colorado | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | John Hickenlooper 51% | Cory Gardner 46% | D + 5% |
| Georgia | 8/20/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 1616 RV | Jon Ossoff 40% | David A. Perdue 47% | R + 6% |
| Georgia | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 48% | David A. Perdue 47% | D + 1% |
| Iowa | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Theresa Greenfield 45% | Joni K. Ernst 50% | R + 5% |
| Maine | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Sara Gideon 48% | Susan M. Collins 47% | D + 1% |
| Maine | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Sara Gideon 44% | Susan M. Collins 43% | D + 1% |
| Maine | 9/4/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Citizen Data | 600 LV | Sara Gideon 49% | Susan M. Collins 41% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 967 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 38% | D + 12% |
| Michigan | 9/1/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 44% | John James 41% | D + 3% |
| Michigan | 9/2/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Gary C. Peters 48% | John James 40% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 876 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 46% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Gary C. Peters 45% | John James 41% | D + 4% |
| Minnesota | 9/4/2020 - 9/7/2020 | SurveyUSA | 553 LV | Tina Smith 47% | Jason Lewis 36% | D + 11% |
| Minnesota | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 814 LV | Tina Smith 49% | Jason Lewis 40% | D + 9% |
| Minnesota | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | YouGov | 1031 LV | Tina Smith 47% | Jason Lewis 40% | D + 7% |
| Montana | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Steve Bullock 47% | Steve Daines 50% | R + 3% |
| New Jersey | 9/4/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Emerson College | 500 LV | Cory A. Booker 52% | Rik Mehta 28% | D + 24% |
| North Carolina | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 951 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 37% | D + 10% |
| North Carolina | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 442 LV | Cal Cunningham 51% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 7% |
| North Carolina | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Cal Cunningham 42% | Thom Tillis 39% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 9/7/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1046 LV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 45% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 893 RV | Cal Cunningham 46% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 787 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 46% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 9/10/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SurveyUSA | 596 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 40% | D + 7% |
| Oklahoma | 9/2/2020 - 9/8/2020 | SoonerPoll.com | 486 LV | Abby Broyles 33% | James M. Inhofe 57% | R + 24% |
| Texas | 9/1/2020 - 9/2/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 743 V | Mary Jennings Hegar 40% | John Cornyn 44% | R + 4% |
| Virginia | 8/28/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 693 LV | Mark R. Warner 55% | Daniel M. Gade 38% | D + 17% |
I like seeing Texas at only R +4. I can’t help but wonder what things would look like if Beto was running for Senate. IMHO the race would be closer, with potential for a reverse coattail effect. Texas would probably be lean slightly blue at this point. If only Beto had run for Senate 
.
Yeah, my niece in Austin would definitely have wanted him to.
Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but I’m getting more and more skeptical of a D takeover of the Senate. Particularly as the Presidential race tightens, picking up four seats (sorry, Doug Jones) is gonna be a haul. AZ and CO look solid, but the next tier is a coin flip. ME is going to be a nail biter. For as much of a battering as she has taken, Collins still does have some reputation as an independent politician. I expect she’ll outpace Trump by a 2-3 points, and he only lost Maine by three points in 2016 (with Gary Johnson taking 5%). NC is looking surprisingly good in the recent polling, but do not underestimate the depths to which North Carolina Republicans will stoop to secure victory. The state party has embraced no-holds-barred power politics in a way that would make Mitch McConnel blush (OK, Mitch blushing is not physically possible but I needed an analogy).
I’m rather amazed at how Cunningham keeps polling in NC. Is Tillis really that despised by the citizenry of the state? If so, what did he do? I have to admit I’ve been puzzled about this for weeks.