U.S. Senate races 2020

Not for long, I’m guessing. As information security threats at Citigroup go, a big ol’ red flag just went up there.

Quinnipiac, a pretty well regarded pollster, just came out with a Maine poll showing Gideon ahead of Collins by 12 points. For whatever that’s worth.

More good news that I can’t bring myself to believe. That would be terrific if Susan was tossed out on her “very concerned” butt.

Still need one more. Could be Cunningham in NC. How’s Joni Ernst doing in Iowa?

I believe the table could be set for Dems to pick up another one or two in 2022, midterm curse be damned.

Whoops, Quinnipiac also now has Jaime Harrison dead even with Lindsey Graham. That’s just too sweet to dream about.

Why can’t I find Senate or House predictions on fivethirtyeight? Does he only model the presidential race?

Look no further. 538 Senate polls are here.

538 typically does both a house and senate forecast and I have no reason to believe this year will be different.

In 2018 the senate model came out 9/12. I started a thread about it.

Right, but no MODEL (yet?) that uses those polls, and possibly other factors, to predict the likelihood of Democratic control of the Senate.

As Lance Turbo mentioned, two years ago they did initiate such a model, at about this time in the cycle. (If that’s what Jacknifed Juggernaut was looking for - he-she also mentioned raw polls, which as you pointed out are in the 538 site already).

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The same pollster that has Collins 12 points down also has McConnell 12 points up. The latter makes me confident in the former. I never believed McConnell was in trouble. McGrath made him sweat a bit for once but he’s a good political strategist as much as I dislike him. McConnell knows how to leverage his power and when to scurry into the shadows. While Trump was screwing up all summer he kept a distance.

Sorry, should have been clearer. Yes, I meant the actual expected Democratic and Republican composition of the Senate, and confidence interval.

Got it!
I’d like to see a 538 model, myself. Perhaps they decided not to run one this year?

Look at McConnell’s and McGrath’s favorables/unfavorables in that poll. He’s slightly underwater (44/46) but she’s much more so (34/47). I also read a quote from her campaign manager that they put more stock in the Quinnipiac poll in August that only showed Mitch up by five — well of course you do, bud!

I’m sure 538 will put out senate and house forecasts this year. It’s one of the things they are known for and they have had the ‘machinery’ to do so in place since 2008.

I guess using the predictions for the tipping point senate seats in Maine and North Carolina is as close as we get to a model this year.

Senate model in progress per Tweet from 9/12…

Maybe out in time for the September probabilistic senate forecast thread which I should start soon.

Got it - thanks.

Weird that this came up today…

Senate forecast?

I just see a lot of small boxes.

I see drum emojis.

Or angry little monsters.