Who knows? Biden’s campaign was dead in the water after the “Dog-faced pony soldier” comment until he blew away the competition in SC. I’m not about to discount the Palmetto State even though their track record is pretty poor with the Dems.
Here in Kansas, Democratic state senator Barbara Bollier is attempting to focus on the voting record of her opponent, Congressman Roger Marshall. But Marshall’s ads are focusing on one issue, which is, of course, abortion.
Interestingly, Marshall’s ads in the primary campaign were all about him being in lockstep with Trump. But I have yet to hear Trump’s name mentioned in his ads during the general campaign.
Cunningham in NC is running a very good race. He is hammering Tillis on connection to big Pharma and high drug prices. He is also playing up his Army service in the middle east recently. He only served one term in state legislature so not much of a record. If Tillis loses it will be less than 5 points.
Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point Bollier doesn’t run a few “Marshall is Trump’s best friend” ads. Could likely help her with the suburban semi-pro-life women who need to find a reason to vote Democrat again (after they helped put Laura Kelly into the governor’s mansion).
Big batch of senate polls with six weeks to go. It will be interesting to see what effect the supreme court seat has on these races. September probabilistic senate forecast thread coming later today.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 658 LV | Doug Jones 34% | Tommy Tuberville 52% | R + 18% |
| Arizona | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 600 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 1298 RV | Mark Kelly 44% | Martha McSally 36% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 653 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 42% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 RV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 44% | D + 6% |
| Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 46% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Monmouth University | 420 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 48% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 855 LV | Mark Kelly 52% | Martha McSally 35% | D + 17% |
| Arizona | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 800 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 46% | D + 2% |
| Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 907 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 40% | D + 9% |
| Colorado | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 613 LV | John Hickenlooper 49% | Cory Gardner 42% | D + 7% |
| Georgia | 9/12/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 43% | Even |
| Georgia | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1406 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 43% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | University of Georgia | 1150 LV | Jon Ossoff 45% | David A. Perdue 47% | R + 2% |
| Iowa | 9/14/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Selzer & Co. | 658 LV | Theresa Greenfield 45% | Joni K. Ernst 42% | D + 3% |
| Kentucky | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1164 LV | Amy McGrath 41% | Mitch McConnell 53% | R + 12% |
| Kentucky | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 746 LV | Amy McGrath 37% | Mitch McConnell 52% | R + 15% |
| Maine | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1183 LV | Sara Gideon 54% | Susan M. Collins 42% | D + 12% |
| Maine | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 663 LV | Sara Gideon 49% | Susan M. Collins 44% | D + 5% |
| Maine | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 663 LV | Sara Gideon 44% | Susan M. Collins 40% | D + 4% |
| Maine | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Sara Gideon 46% | Susan M. Collins 41% | D + 5% |
| Maine | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Sara Gideon 49% | Susan M. Collins 42% | D + 7% |
| Michigan | 9/12/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 930 LV | Gary C. Peters 51% | John James 35% | D + 16% |
| Michigan | 9/10/2020 - 9/15/2020 | EPIC-MRA | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 45% | John James 41% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 600 LV | Gary C. Peters 42% | John James 40% | D + 2% |
| Michigan | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1376 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 40% | D + 7% |
| Minnesota | 9/12/2020 - 9/17/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 718 LV | Tina Smith 51% | Jason Lewis 36% | D + 15% |
| Mississippi | 8/28/2020 - 8/30/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Mike Espy 40% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 41% | R + 1% |
| Montana | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 625 LV | Steve Bullock 44% | Steve Daines 45% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Kaiser Family Foundation | 1172 RV | Cal Cunningham 41% | Thom Tillis 37% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Cal Cunningham 42% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 9/12/2020 - 9/15/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1092 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 11% |
| North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 653 LV | Cal Cunningham 42% | Thom Tillis 37% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 9/16/2020 - 9/18/2020 | Emerson College | 717 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 43% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 1604 LV | Cal Cunningham 47% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 9% |
| North Carolina | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Harper Polling | 612 LV | Cal Cunningham 44% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 6% |
| South Carolina | 9/10/2020 - 9/14/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 969 LV | Jaime Harrison 48% | Lindsey Graham 48% | Even |
| South Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 764 LV | Jaime Harrison 45% | Lindsey Graham 46% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 8/20/2020 - 8/25/2020 | The Tyson Group | 906 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 44% | R + 2% |
| Texas | 9/15/2020 - 9/18/2020 | YouGov | 1129 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 41% | John Cornyn 46% | R + 5% |
| Texas | 9/11/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Morning Consult | 2616 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 39% | John Cornyn 45% | R + 6% |
Time for Dem contributors to stop pouring money into Kentucky and redirect it to Iowa, Maine and the Carolinas where it will matter much more. In fact, the most bang for the buck may be in Mississippi, where Mike Espy must be running one heckuva campaign.
A state-wide poll in MS that’s a statistical tie is amazing. Unfortunately, there are no other polls in that state, so we don’t know if that’s an outlier or an accurate view of that election.
There are other Mississippi polls. That’s just the only one from the last week.
Here’s all of them…
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 8/28/2020 - 8/30/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Mike Espy 40% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 41% | R + 1% |
| Mississippi | 7/30/2020 - 8/9/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 600 LV | Mike Espy 42% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 47% | R + 5% |
| Mississippi | 5/27/2020 - 5/28/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 871 V | Mike Espy 41% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 49% | R + 8% |
| Mississippi | 5/4/2020 - 5/7/2020 | Impact Management Group | 606 LV | Mike Espy 31% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 58% | R + 28% |
| Mississippi | 3/10/2020 - 3/12/2020 | The Tyson Group | 600 LV | Mike Espy 28% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 54% | R + 26% |
| Mississippi | 2/26/2020 - 2/28/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 RV | Mike Espy 43% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 53% | R + 10% |
| Mississippi | 1/3/2020 - 1/7/2020 | Chism Strategies | 618 LV | Mike Espy 36% | Cindy Hyde-Smith 44% | R + 8% |
Most of those are from last spring or earlier. While those are of interest to historians, they aren’t an indicator of what’s happening in the race right now. Even the one recent poll was taken last month, so it’d be better if we had some from earlier this month. I hope other polsters will note this result and do some more polling in Mississippi. It’s a state that’s usually written off as being safe Republican, but perhaps this year it isn’t.
Also of note in Mississippi is that this race is a rematch of sorts.
In 2018 there was non-partisan special election on election day where the top two finishers competed in a runoff on November 27. Those top two finishers were Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy.
Espy lost by 7 points but his 46.4% was the best finish for a Democrat in a Mississippi senate race since the 80’s when southern Democrats were a pretty conservative lot.
There was also a regular senate race in MS in 2018 that didn’t feature these two. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker won that by 19 points.
I live in MS, and he’s not, actually. At least, his last campaign was not particularly well-organized or social-media-savvy, and I was hoping we would get a different, stronger candidate this year. But Espy wanted to run again, and nobody wanted to go up against him except this one dude who’s a fringe-left, perennial candidate type.
He’s doing as well as he is because Cindy Hyde-Smith is really, embarrassingly bad, and because between COVID and BLM, there’s a lot of energy and anger on the Democratic side; and honestly, he probably still won’t close the gap. (The problem with Mississippi is that although the numbers gap between Democrats and Republicans actually isn’t all that big, there are very few places for a Democratic candidate to pick up more votes than the 42% or so they usually do. Virtually all of the black voters and the small handful of white liberals are voting for Democrats already; the rest of the white people will never, ever vote for a Democrat under any circumstances; pretty much the only possible growth areas are people who don’t usually vote and young people voting for the first time, and those are hard groups to turn out.)
Miss is 40% black but they cannot elect a black guy/girl to major office. I guess the problem is turnout for black voters?
Even if they all turned out, and the relative handful of white liberal Mississippians voted unanimously with them, it’s still hard to get 50% +1 votes.
And see:
This argues that McConnell is showing weakness, not strength, in acting as he does:
A party confident of victory at the polls, even with the help of a convoluted system which gives a conservative minority an inherent edge, doesn’t suggest that millions of ballots shouldn’t count nor infer that a friendly Supreme Court is necessary for it to retain power.
Republican professionals know that the next decade or so looks very grim.
True and true.
Maybe he should reflect on why people hate him.
He sucked up to a guy once described this way.
“He’s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot,” the senator says. “You know how you make America great again? Tell Donald Trump to go to hell.”
LOL. As someone tweeted last year, “Well, Sen. Graham, you can’t say you didn’t warn you.”
Five weeks.
Fun fact: the most recent poll in the 538 database where Thom Tillis (R-NC inc.) was in the lead (+1) was released on June 19th. There have been 51 polls released since then.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 9/20/2020 - 9/23/2020 | Harstad Strategic Research Inc. | 602 LV | Al Gross 45% | Dan Sullivan 46% | R + 1% |
| Arizona | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Ipsos | 565 LV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 41% | D + 9% |
| Arizona | 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Mark Kelly 55% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 12% |
| Arizona | 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 701 RV | Mark Kelly 50% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 5% |
| Arizona | 9/15/2020 - 9/20/2020 | ABC News/The Washington Post | 579 LV | Mark Kelly 49% | Martha McSally 48% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Change Research | 262 LV | Mark Kelly 51% | Martha McSally 43% | D + 8% |
| Arizona | 9/15/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Data for Progress | 481 LV | Mark Kelly 47% | Martha McSally 38% | D + 9% |
| Arizona | 9/25/2020 - 9/28/2020 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 500 LV | Mark Kelly 48% | Martha McSally 45% | D + 3% |
| Georgia | 9/14/2020 - 9/16/2020 | GBAO | 600 LV | Jon Ossoff 49% | David A. Perdue 48% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 41% | David A. Perdue 43% | R + 2% |
| Georgia | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 44% | David A. Perdue 44% | Even |
| Georgia | 9/16/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 523 LV | Jon Ossoff 38% | David A. Perdue 41% | R + 3% |
| Georgia | 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 RV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 48% | R + 6% |
| Georgia | 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Jon Ossoff 43% | David A. Perdue 48% | R + 5% |
| Georgia | 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 50% | R + 8% |
| Georgia | 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 | YouGov | 1164 LV | Jon Ossoff 42% | David A. Perdue 47% | R + 5% |
| Georgia | 9/23/2020 - 9/27/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1125 LV | Jon Ossoff 49% | David A. Perdue 48% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 969 LV | Jon Ossoff 48% | David A. Perdue 46% | D + 2% |
| Georgia | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 969 LV | Matthew Lieberman 39% | Kelly Loeffler 39% | Even |
| Georgia | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 969 LV | Raphael Warnock 49% | Kelly Loeffler 39% | D + 10% |
| Georgia | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 969 LV | Matthew Lieberman 38% | Doug Collins 44% | R + 6% |
| Georgia | 9/26/2020 - 9/29/2020 | Civiqs | 969 LV | Raphael Warnock 49% | Doug Collins 44% | D + 5% |
| Iowa | 9/16/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 501 LV | Theresa Greenfield 42% | Joni K. Ernst 40% | D + 2% |
| Iowa | 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 RV | Theresa Greenfield 47% | Joni K. Ernst 47% | Even |
| Iowa | 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Theresa Greenfield 49% | Joni K. Ernst 46% | D + 3% |
| Iowa | 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Monmouth University | 402 LV | Theresa Greenfield 48% | Joni K. Ernst 47% | D + 1% |
| Kansas | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 883 LV | Barbara Bollier 40% | Roger Marshall 40% | Even |
| Kansas | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 883 LV | Barbara Bollier 42% | Roger Marshall 42% | Even |
| Kentucky | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 807 LV | Amy McGrath 39% | Mitch McConnell 46% | R + 7% |
| Kentucky | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 807 LV | Amy McGrath 41% | Mitch McConnell 48% | R + 7% |
| Maine | 9/20/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Moore Information | 500 LV | Sara Gideon 42% | Susan M. Collins 42% | Even |
| Maine | 9/17/2020 - 9/23/2020 | Colby College | 847 LV | Sara Gideon 45% | Susan M. Collins 41% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Ipsos | 637 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 43% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 9/14/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Data for Progress | 455 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 42% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 9/17/2020 - 9/19/2020 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 400 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 42% | D + 8% |
| Michigan | 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Change Research | 568 LV | Gary C. Peters 50% | John James 44% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 9/8/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Baldwin Wallace University | 1001 LV | Gary C. Peters 46% | John James 41% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 9/19/2020 - 9/23/2020 | Marist College | 1082 RV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 43% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 9/19/2020 - 9/23/2020 | Marist College | 799 LV | Gary C. Peters 49% | John James 44% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 9/23/2020 - 9/25/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1047 LV | Gary C. Peters 47% | John James 47% | R + 0% |
| Minnesota | 9/21/2020 - 9/23/2020 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 800 LV | Tina Smith 49% | Jason Lewis 41% | D + 8% |
| Minnesota | 9/20/2020 - 9/24/2020 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | Tina Smith 45% | Jason Lewis 35% | D + 10% |
| New Hampshire | 9/17/2020 - 9/25/2020 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 657 LV | Jeanne Shaheen 56% | Corky Messner 37% | D + 19% |
| North Carolina | 9/11/2020 - 9/16/2020 | Ipsos | 586 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 44% | D + 4% |
| North Carolina | 9/18/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Change Research | 579 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 43% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 9/18/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Meredith College | 705 RV | Cal Cunningham 43% | Thom Tillis 42% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 921 LV | Cal Cunningham 49% | Thom Tillis 43% | D + 6% |
| North Carolina | 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 | YouGov | 1213 LV | Cal Cunningham 48% | Thom Tillis 38% | D + 10% |
| Oklahoma | 9/17/2020 - 9/20/2020 | Amber Integrated | 500 LV | Abby Broyles 30% | James M. Inhofe 46% | R + 16% |
| South Carolina | 9/21/2020 - 9/24/2020 | brilliant corners Research & Strategies | 608 LV | Jaime Harrison 45% | Lindsey Graham 43% | D + 2% |
| South Carolina | 9/22/2020 - 9/25/2020 | YouGov | 1080 LV | Jaime Harrison 44% | Lindsey Graham 45% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 9/17/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Quinnipiac University | 1078 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 42% | John Cornyn 50% | R + 8% |
| Texas | 9/15/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Data for Progress | 726 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 38% | John Cornyn 40% | R + 2% |
| Texas | 9/16/2020 - 9/22/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 653 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 37% | John Cornyn 43% | R + 6% |
| Texas | 9/18/2020 - 9/25/2020 | University of Massachusetts Lowell | 882 LV | Mary Jennings Hegar 40% | John Cornyn 50% | R + 10% |
| Virginia | 9/9/2020 - 9/21/2020 | Christopher Newport University | 796 LV | Mark R. Warner 52% | Daniel M. Gade 39% | D + 13% |