Bullock in Montana is doing a little better than I’d feared (33% chance, according to 538’s model), but Kelly in Arizona isn’t quite the shoo-in I was hoping he would be at this point (I think 538 gives him a 76% chance).
Second poll out now that shows Harrison neck and neck with Graham in South Carolina
Greenfield is leading Ernst by 12% in Iowa! Biden is only leading Trump by just 2% in the same poll in Iowa so maybe some ticket splitting there?
In spite of the polling, I just haven’t been able to accept that Graham is in real trouble in South Carolina. Sure his numbers are softer than they should be with Republican voters and Harrison is raising a ton of money, but it’s freaking South Carolina. I figured the race will poll close through early October but Graham will start pulling ahead as Republicans come home.
But I see that McConnell’s PAC is dumping $10 million in SC to buttress him. With everywhere they’re playing defense, I can’t imagine a calculating son of a bitch like Mitch doing so unless he really thinks this seat could go to the Democrats.
The libertarian party candidate dropped out and immediately endorsed Graham. Must have been a tactically agreed move. The libertarian ran for the same job in SC against Tim Scott in 2016 and only got 2%. Insignificant in 2016 but could have been the difference if he stayed in and took away some conservative voters.
I’ll need to see some more polls backing up the big Greenfield lead in Iowa before my skepticism recedes but I’m happy to see her staying very much in that contest.
At this point in the campaigns, though, Iowa feels like a better pickup opportunity than South Carolina. SC just isn’t urbanized and well educated enough yet.
“Tactically agreed move” = what exactly did state Republicans promise him/threaten him with. . .
In NC Cunningham sexted someone other than his wife. Don’t think he can win now
Yeah what the fuck is it with North Carolina Dem Senate candidates who can’t keep their erections under control? First Edwards, now this guy!
God dammit. This could be big. We may never know for sure, but in a month it might be pretty clear that this is what prevented the Dems from achieving a majority in the Senate.
Well, he couldn’t have asked for a better news cycle for this to come out . . .
Good point. Kind of like Chappaquiddick and the moon landing.
That NC thing is just so tame by today’s standards (consenting adults – and just mildly intimate texting) that I’m skeptical it will have any significant impact. But we’ll see.
So far all the reporting I see is from the hard right conservative sites. I’m skeptical that anyone that would even consider voting for Cunningham will see it.
I just searched “Cunningham” on Google - nothing else. When did Politico, the Washington Post, NBC and the Detroit Free Press become hard right?
You are right.
I used the terms “Cunningham sexting scandal“, that’s what turned up only the right wing site.
and Tillis tested positive for CV
I don’t know. In this political climate, I don’t know if “told a woman he wanted to kiss her” even moves the needle. What does Tillis say – people who cheat on their spouses are unsuitable to hold high political office?
You didn’t think he could before.
I said if he was ahead in polls in Oct. he had a chance to win. His chance of winning just went way down. If he was running in the NE or CA this might not matter. But it’s still the Bible belt here. For people on the fence this just gave them a good reason to stick with Tillis. Especially religious folks.
I tend to agree that his chances are hurt, regardless of how hypocritical Republicans are. Malfeasance and issues or moral turpitude seem to hurt Dems a lot worse.
It’s not that voters will hold Tillis in higher regard; rather, the concern is that voters who might be on the fence and leaning toward voting for a challenger might be more indecisive. I could see some voters saying “Okay, well I’ll vote for Biden and balance that out by voting for Tillis.”