UBS Calls the World Cup: And the Winner Is ...

Italy, toppling Brazil in the final after the Netherlands and Argentina lose in the semis, assuming one believes an investment bank’s opinion about the World Cup. :dubious: Having said that, the UBS simulation did correctly forecast about 90% of semifinal winners in the nine most recent World Cups when it was backtested, according to the article.

Italy’s my team, so I’m quite happy to accept this prediction.


Using the BBC Predictor

That would take the following set of results in the group stages:

Group A - Germany 2nd
Group B - Sweden 1st, England 2nd
Group C - Argentina 1st, Holland 2nd
Group D - Doesn’t matter
Group E - Italy 1st
Group F - Brazil 1st
Group G - France 1st
Group H - Spain 1st

Personally I think that there’s very little chance that Germany will come second in their group, I think that Poland will likely take 2nd, and Germany will come top.

In addition to that, I don’t think a German team that can only come 2nd in Group A can possibly beat a Swedish team who win Group B.

Anyway, their simulation is inaccurate. Wayne Roooooo-ney is back on the England squad for the second round. Re-run the sim UBS!