O rly?
I don’t know if that is all that cowgirl has based her suspicions on, since she didn’t link or quote the “smoke and mirrors” posts she was talking about. But Autolycus’s “noise” posts were, well, pretty darn noisy and apparently more memorable in my mind than any that Pygmy Rugger posted. Plus, if pimaspinner is right about him being Godfather, it would explain why he wasn’t afraid of bringing an investigation into his role.
If he is the beat cop, he should come out and say it instead of trying to be coy. Because if he sits and waits until the last minute, we’re going to be scrambling for another target, and no one is going to have time to do in-depth analysis.
On the plus side, if he is the beat cop, he appears to be hinting about MadTheSwine now.
[RP-OFF]
I’m going to karaoke very soon and will post my defense of this nonsense GF accusation later, so in like 3-5 hours or so. I dont think any defense will satiate the bloodlust of the lynch mob, but I’ll try o_o;
[RP-ON]
whines But I can’t wait 3-5 hours. I’m going to bed in two. 
Well in that case, clearly you have to get 27 votes and lynch me immediately 
Hehe, I believe what you think is a hint towards MTS being scum is what I think the hint is to him be a cop.
Swine to pig to cop.
Personally, Autolycus, I hope your defense is in your mobtalk. I just want to see how long and indepth you can go with it. Oh, and that it doesn’t involve a ladle 
I’m allowed one vote per personality, right? That’s 128 votes right there.
From the seven votes for Blaster Master at that time, besides myself, we have:
Queuing: the town is fairly confident he’s not scum
hocow: ??? suggested as serial killer
pimaspinner: pretty much confirmed as cop
Arizona Teach: ???
Gadarene: Confirmed
Winston Smith Confirmed
3-4 people the town is pretty confident in right now. I don’t see how including me in a group like that shows anything.
I’m not sure how closely you read the Day Two [del]clusterfuck[/del] debate, but those five people “Blaster Master, Gadarene, Queuing, and zuma” were making quite a few accusations with little information, and it turns out it’s because some of them were so “pro town” that it started to get a little out of hand. The reason people stopped voting for me was (and I see it’s been explained by Kat upon preview) because it was based on me thinking a couple people said they were going to be out of town for the weekend.
I did not say BM came up with the “Vig conditional idea”. I said that BMcame up with the Vig conditional ideas that were being voted on at the time (see the quote below where he defined what the conditional was that he proposed us voting on). Also, at that time, several current confirmed townies were building their own cases against BM. You have to remember, day two was basically a [del]clusterfuck[/del] giant FoS orgy, and we didn’t have quite the information that’s available to us now.
BTW, did you bring those nachos?
Odd nothing. They don’t like it when I don’t show up to work and they block the board at work. And I had a big test today so I left right away and didn’t read the board this morning.
Oh. Good, we killed three scum. This means I no longer have to worry to much about pissing you guys off and getting myself killed by you guys hurting the town in the process. I take back my retraction yesterday, I wasn’t acting suspicious. You guys were acting paranoid. I was thinking like a member of team town, you guys were thinking of my actions through the idea that I wanted to keep myself alive no matter what. This was exacerbated by the fact that I give bad explanations. It’s one of my big flaws. When I explain things I often leave out critical things because I assume people know the things that I know. Not unless they’re mind readers. And so they think me odd. It often takes me a day or two of thinking till I get a good grasp of how to explain what my reasoning was.
I’m going to discuss the three suspicious things I did yesterday. Note how you guys kinda did it anyway. Although I fully admit you guys did it for differing reasons.
My first suspicious activity was to play out some odds. I listed a group of 5 people who I said were selected for the purity of their scuminess. And lo and behold the first mobster to go down under the lynch system was from my group. The odds are simply what they are. **brewha **asked how I could use them and then I showed him. If it turns out that a few more of those I mentioned are scum, take a look at brewha, he may have been trying to protect them.
Next I suggested offing FCOD by the VG which is what you guys ended up doing. A VG kill is a short blunt instrument. Take a look at the death of Winston Smith. He didn’t know for certain he was going to die until night set and he was unable to defend himself. In fact he may have been certain he was going to live and only find out when it’s too late to do anything about it. And what about the other conditional kill, Queuing? What if he was a power role? He might have been forced to claim even if he actually wasn’t going to die that night.
On the other hand a lynching is an instrument of finesse, or at least it should be. The time limit is set and you know what is going to happen and when. This puts people under a lot of pressure. From that pressure interesting things happen. A lynch allows the town the most information from any kill. No second guessing whether or not things really went down they way we asked them to go down. We do it and we know.
So we have two instruments of death that we get to direct. Each has its own strengths and weaknesses. With deaths we want differing things out of them. Today you guys are doing the smart thing. I’ve come back scum. If you trust that it’s better to leave my death to the VG while you go ahead and use the finesse and pressure of a lynch kill to try and get another mobster. It’s easier to get mobsters with lynching then with the vigilante. That was my reasoning there.
Lastly I suggested a plan that we lynch JSexton. People flipped. And yet that is exactly what you guys were in the process of doing before he claimed. From very early on chhrisk was suspected by more and more townfolk. And yet I defended from from early on with increasing certainty as I began to feel it more and more likely that the mafia was pushing what they saw as an easy free kill. When FCOD claimed and the town was quite likely about to be stuck flailing around for a person to kill I had my idea. I took my gauntlet and threw it down at the feet of those that suspected him. My thinking was you guys think he’s scum, I say he ain’t. I’m willing to put my life on the line and I expect you guys to do the same. So go ahead and kill him. If I’m wrong and he’s scum then kill me. You’ll get a 1 for 1 trade and it’s in the towns favor and I’m happy. If I’m right, then kill the person who I felt was most scummy in his pursuit because I’m very certain he’s scum and that the town will get a 1 for 1 trade and it will be in the town’s favor.
14 hours after I posted this extremely controversial plan and had, according to you guys, began to act extermeley suspiciously JSexton had gone from having 4 votes (FCOD, suburban plankton, rysto, sturmhauke: source # 2008) to having 17 (post 2154). You guys still selected to lynch him over me. I suggested he be lynched because you guys wanted to.
Naturally he would have been very suspicious of my actions since he doesn’t know what I am and may (now we know definitely) have been quite unwilling to trade his life for that of a scum. If my preferred target was scum then I assume the mafia would have been against it too. But for the town, why be so certain of JSexton’s scuminess on your own but in the shape of my plan worry that he’s town?
Unfortunately for me I am bad at explaining myself and was ashamedly cowed into seeing things your way by the wall of noise put up against my idea. But after thinking about it for a few day or so I now think my idea was a pretty good one. For the town.
Of course it all falls apart if JSexton were to claim a power role like he did. And I can’t say that it would have gone as well as it did if I had the blessings of a silvered tongue. Surely in that alternate universe we also would have unvoted JSexton but as to what happened afterwards who can say. All I can say is that I completely disagree with you folks that I was acting in the worst interest of the town. With the information I had and with the mood of the town at the time I proposed three ideas that were beneficial to the town.
Ok, now I can die in peace. Oh, am I the SK? No. Thankfully no since it’s almost a guaranteed loss. Have I been trying to hide in plain sight like I’ve been suspecting of Autolycus? I have not. It looks like our beat cop finally got one wrong. Is it better for the town to take the chance and kill me tonight at Blaster Master’s hands? I suppose so. The scum content of the town has gone from a probable 26% to to 31% to 24%. And you have a possible two other kills that might go the town’s way. Take long hard looks at brewha and Sturmhauke when I die. They may have been trying to take down easy town kills like **JSexton **and apparantly myself.
Now to read all the posts you guys made while I was composing this.
Ok, I am done reading through what FCOD posted. A lot of it was vote counts, as pointed out by cowgirl. Anyway I did it so here goes:
Post 240
-defends kivvik as pleonast voted her, FOS pleonast
Post 263
-votes for autolycus due to mobtalk
Post 270
-points out fallacy of ideas of why the 1st 3 were killed
Post 278
-confused by chrisk
Post 347
-responds to pima FOS with a joke. GJ by Pima to cover it by making fun of FCOD name
Post 427
-unvote autolycus, votes enfant
- posts a trust list:
I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek
Post 593
-votes chrisk
-points out caerieD’s mistake
-posts another trust list:
I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don’t trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek
Post 624
-asks pima why he is always being suspicious of him, lucky that FCOD didn’t push for a pimaspinner kill at night
Post 631
-defense of some accusations from Fern and pimaspinner, mostly asking why he is so suspicious of him. Another bullet dodged by the good folks here
Post 709
-responds to a vote from fretful porpentine for FCOD. Vote came for supposed bandwagon jumping (auto/EF/Chrisk)
-Post 751 posts a vote list (one of many to come)
-expresses anger at chrisk for leaving the game.
Post 871
-unvotes chrisk, votes for PR
Post 896
-again wonders about pimaspinner
Post 942
-anger at FF for talking to much and for trying to influence votes, again a vote count
Post 1198
-unvote PR, votes for me, vote count
Post 1268
-agrees with starvingbutstrong plan in regards to day 2 killing of conditional kills
There were a number of posts in between these 2, however they all dealt with the conditional kill arguments with Zuma, and whom to kill on those conditions.
Post 1732
-FOS at Jsexton
-explanation of voting record, nothing to big here
Post 1754
-votes JSexton
The remaining posts are arguments with JSexton about whether or not the Vig kill was worth it, his fake role claim, etc.
What do I get out of this? For one, we are lucky the FCOD is not more persuasive and didn’t go after Pimaspinner sooner. Secondly, more scum having public fights with JSexton. I suppose this could be a smoke screen, but JSexton is somewhat backed in a corner. He has claimed, he says he is the doctor. We can believe him until the odds become more in our favour, drastically so ( I would say somewhere around 2 suspected scum left depending on how long it takes us). So I don’t think it is, and it really doesn’t matter right now.
Lastly, I look at FCOD’s trust lists, with no explanation as to how he come to these, are once again:
I trust: Rysto, glee, myself
I distrust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, Queuing, and Aguecheek (post 427)
followed in post 593
I trust: Menocchio, Rysto, glee
I don’t trust: Blaster Master, Queuing, Aguecheek
It can easily be explained why Menecchio made it to the second list, he is the crumb. Rysto has been town trusted since the very beginning. Lo and behold what name appears again? glee.
I don’t see why glee had all of this mafia attention. Glee was never even on my radar, and as far as I can tell, no one but confirmed scums radar either. What is up with that?
Aguecheek also makes the distrust list (as do I) both times. No reasons are given, but we know that I made it on like 10 distrust lists, so that could explain me, but why aguecheek?
It was possible that FCOD was the serial killer, unlikely but possible. If you’re wrong then NAF spins a dial and whatever comes up comes up.
Why would it hurt to talk about who you suspect is the GF?
Well, let’s see. Things Aguecheek did before post 427:
Post 363
-Voted for sturmhauke
-FoS-ed Autolycus
-Discussed Night 1 victims
Post 400
-Discussed the Serial Killer
-Discussed Night 1 victims
Post 404
-Got voted for by sturmhauke
Post 421
-Got distrusted by Fretful Porpentine
Ok now I’ve caught up and see you’ve addressed this already.
I must say it is very interesting to see people analyze my posts so carefully. It’s kinda like hearing your voice on tape.
Ok, first you say I made votes with poor reasoning. The first thing you cite is my first vote on day one for Queuing. Can you show me any other vote on day one that was made with better reasoning than mine?
The second post you cite was my accusation of pimaspinner. In my defense, he did throw suspicion on **FCOD **without much reasoning. I had every right to call him on that.
My third post that lacks good reasoning was made by Fern Forest. Check your links.
Then you bring up my faulty reasoning from day 1 again. It obviously sucked because I was wrong. I defended **Autolycus **because I thought **Queuing **was more suspicious. Now freaking **Queuing **and Blaster Master are suspicious of me because of this post. Seriously, these guys are like the Mafia’s lap dogs. One person posts vague suspicion and their posts carries it throughout the town.
Don’t forget that your former self voted for Enfant Terrible. What I find suspicious is that you fell for the same reasoning I did and are now suspicious of me for it.
Why was I not included in the list of posters that made a “zillion and one” posts? It think it was because I did not make a “zillion and one” posts.
Actually, I’m suspicious of you for entirely different reasons. I FOSed you yesterday based on my analysis of nesta’s patterns. It turns out that one of the other individuals I FOSed for the same reasons, kivvik, was scum, so I’m going to hope I may have been onto something. Seriously, you like ARE the mafia.
Here is what you came up with based on nesta’s patterns:
These criteria for spotting mafia are so vague that you can apply them to pretty much anyone. Plus, now the mafia has a nice handbook of how to avoid Blaster Master’s suspicion.
Is this really what you are using to FOS me?
Okay… let’s review then, shall we?
Like nesta and kivvik, you failed to make a vote on day one.
You voted to lynch Pleonast with shaky reasoning. You point out the bandwagon from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible, and then say Pleonast is more suspicious for supporting and improved version of chrisk’s idea? Why didn’t you just vote for chrisk?
A defense of Autolycus (our current GF suspect); granted, it was against my faulty reasoning, and it was appropriately addressed by zuma later, but you made no attempt to address the reasoning.
Then you “reluctantly” change your vote to chrisk, still pushing for Pleonast, when the whole reason you didn’t like Pleonast was because he supported chrisk. ???
Then you change your vote back to **Pleonast ** and FOS me.
Another vague defense of Autolycus and another FOS at me, Pleonast, Storyteller, and sturmhauke.
Here’s an example of a seemingly helpful but doesn’t really add anything post.
Then you defend FCOD, and point the FOS at Pleonast and me again.
Then you switch your vote AGAIN, this time to try and start the clock on me.
Then you question why I role-claimed. ???
Then you try andagain to keep the FOS on me even after the plan was established to test my claim.
Then you support VIGing Zuma.
Then a vague defense of Aguecheek, another individual high on many people’s scum lists right now.
Then, a vote for pimaspinner.
Then you FOS pimaspinner AGAIN, and essentailly support random FOSing.
This is your only vote for mafia, and only AFTER he was outed by pimaspinner.
And after push the FCOD thing REALLY hard for several posts, you claim we don’t have enough time to get the Suburban Plankton train going and should just vote for Fern Forest.
So, what do I see in ALL of your posts? Several are either completely contentless or of the “seemingly helpful, but not really type” like vote counting. ALL of your votes, except for the one for FCOD AFTER he was outted, were for what are now 100% confirmed non-mafia (100% townie, if you don’t include Fern Forest, who is either townie or SK, which is still in the mafia’s favor). You defended **Autolycus ** (suspected GF), FCOD (confirmed mafia), Suburban Plankton (confirmed mafia), and Aguecheek (higher on most people’s scum list than you are). You chastized Suburban Plankton for his idea in a manor that seems more consistent with “you fool, they’re FOSing you, STOP IT!” than “I really think we should vote for you”. Why didn’t you vote **Suburban Plankton ** after that, oh so convincing, performance? THEN, to top it all, you get hyper defensive when people FOS you, without getting even a single vote? If you really aren’t mafia, then you shouldn’t have much of a problem at all with people suggesting that you be investigated… as the investigation should, more likely than not, exonerate you of your mafia charges.
If I didn’t think that lynching Autolycus today was most in the town’s favor, I’d vote for you. Maybe we can just get to that tomorrow?
First thanks for your in-depth analysis of Flying Cow’s posts.
N.B. Is there an easy way to search this thread for all posts by one player? I only found a thread search for each time a keyword is mentioned…)
Next I’d like to look at one point you raise - about me. 
Flying Cow posted 427 on day 1 and 593 on day 2. At that early point in the game, we had no success in identifying Mafia.
My list at that time trusted 9 players who had posted good analysis and distrusted poor posts (Winston + Autolycus) plus random votes for me (Smitty).
I assume that Flying Cow was using the same idea, because:
- otherwise it might lead to suspicion of being Mafia
- there’s no need for one Mafia to publically post their suspicions of a key Citizen when they have all night to discuss it privately.
Well, like I said I usually need to think about something awhile before I really understand it.
Am I the serial killer? No and shame on you guys for believing that. Ignore the fact that I talked about it a LOT. So much so that in fact some people were beginning to get sick about the SK talk. Ignore that.
Last night I suggest you guys go ahead with the **JSexton **lynch and offered my life as a conditional. What serial killer in his right mind would make such a large risk? As the SK I would have no more certainty of JSexton’s association then any other citizen. It would be a rather large gamble to bet the entire game on **JSexton **being a citizen. And not only that, betting it on the one guy the town is the most suspicious of.
But not only that, after it became apparant that my plan was not going to followed I argued that I was a better lynch then JSexton. I argued that I was damaged and **JSexton **was a better player and that the town would be better off lynching me yesterday. Unless I lost my mind yesterday no way am I the serial killer.
Could I be a mobster? A mobster could very well have made the odds post. A mobster would have known whether or not **JSexton **and **Sturmhauke **were citizens and proposed a plan that would kill them both. When that plan went sour would a mobster have argued that he should be killed instead of the player he knew was a citizen? If I was a mobster I would have only made the first play if **JSexton **was town and only made the second playif **JSexton **was mafioso. It doesn’t make sense.
Only one scenario makes sense. I was a citizen who was very convinced that **JSexton **was town. And because it was for the betterment of town I was willing to trade the life of the most suspicious citizen at that time for the person I thought was acting the most suspicious. And then when that failed pushed for my own lynching for pissing you guys off and tried to save the life of the guy I felt was innocent.
So I think that kills pimaspinner’s arguement that **Autolycus **is the GF. The mob would be foolish to risk the GF on such a ploy. We could have very well lynched him on the first day. But he probably is scum. As I said a long time ago, I think he’s here to distract us. He’s the little dancing monkey and while we all stand around and stare they sneak up behind us a pick our pockets. I will gladly vote for him when we’re ready to end this day.
On the advanced search page you can put a persons name on the right hand side and then select to show as posts. Probably should click on the forum MPSIMS while you’re at it.