BTW the magic number to end the day instantly is 24 today. You are currently at 15.
Yeah. Still it might work for a turn or two.
Thanks for pointing that out. 
Actually I think the odds are the same in this case - still 50% for the Miller to block when there are precisely two Mafia left.
No way am I criticising you! 
I throw out ideas too and I think that’s by far the best Town strategy.
However, when we are near the end of the game, there may only be a turn or two left. :eek: So we need to consider our priorities now…
See post 2530.
Autolycus is ‘thinking’ about his defence.
For 19 hours…
I do intend to announce who I will be investigating. I don’t know right now, but will probably choose from** Lakai**, Pygmy Rugger, and Aguecheek. I am looking at the cases being made against each, so if you have an opinion let me know.
I disagree. the other beat cop can investigate just as well without knowing what pima will be doing. Also, as I’ve said before, I think it’s best if we don’t reveal any more Masons unless we have to. They’re going to be more powerful during the endgame, and outing them at this point only gives the Mafia a bigger pool to attack, and the Doctor a bigger pool to defend.
Meh, any of those 3 are fine. If you find one more suspicious then another do what you feel like. We have about 10 hours I believe, so just make sure you announce whomever with 4-6 hours left. Just in case one is a mason or something and decides to claim before you waste a night.
Put me in the pima-announcing-his-investigation-target camp for the reasons given. My only addition would be that if the target is a mason, then **Pleonast ** *should * step in before the investigation is wasted.
Otherwise, I am firmly in the Pleonast-should-not-reveal camp because a guaranteed mafia lynch over the next two days is worth it.
Although I do like the idea of investigating from a small handful like this, but not announcing specifically which one you’ll be targeting tonight.
Honestly, the only reason I can see for **pima ** not telling us who he’s going to investigate is for the benefit of the mafia. It might waste another cop’s investigation…if I’m missing something, let me know. Otherwise, I suggest investigate Pygmy Rugger.
Well, not really. I am not sure whether it is a better idea for Beat Cop II to: (1) investigate the same person as pima, to allow for result confirmation; or (2) to specifically avoid investigating the same person, as a way of generating additional information. Whichever Beat Cop II prefers, though, having pima announce a target beforehand gives Beat Cop II the chance to choose from those options, rather than just firing blindly and hoping things work out.
If pima does tell us, and it is a Mason, it would be better for the mob. I’ll await JSexton’s thoughts on the matter, him and I have had a similar conversation earlier about this. It’s not good to out a Mason if we don’t have to. The only time we have to his if they’re about to get lynched.
Well if you or anyone knows any magical defense I could put up I’d like to hear it. I myself have no idea what I can do since you guys are so damn suspicious of me. So I’m ready to die peacefully then spend my last few hours flailing around. Especially I’m about to head out to work and wont get back till this day is over and I’m a dead man.
At least you guys killed the guy with the freaking pinky ring first.
Lynch Autolycus. My only hope is he’s the SK. Slim chance of that. I’ll see you all in my farewell post where I shall chastise you all for completely failing to understand what I was doing yesterday.
True. If both those options are good options, however, then it doesn’t matter and they can confer in the morning. If the scum target them overnight, it doesn’t matter, because they won’t be able to report their investigations. That’s why I think a small handful of suspects is best. It gives the best of both options you list, and doesn’t absolutely have to out a Mason.
Again, JSexton, please correct me if I’m wrong, but at this point it’s better to “waste” an investigation on a Mason than to out another one, knowing that we probably have only 2-3 left?
Do what you need to do, but I think a number of us thought you were a townie, and that is all. I know I did. I know a number of others did. Its why you didn’t get lynched yesterday.
Unfortunately for you, a cop investigated you and you came up SK. Sure he could be wrong. However 50/50 odds are odds most of us would bet on. I agree with you that there is little you could say that would stop the Vig kill now. Sorry about that if it does turn out you are town.
He does raise something of a good point though. Say Autolycus is the SK and not the Godfather? Do we have a backup target for BM?
On a different note, why the asking for what JSexton has to say? JSexton is not some sort of guru, and IMO is currently one of the least trusted players in this game. He has made a claim that can only be verified by his death, so until that happens I don’t trust him. At all. So to put it bluntly JSexton will have to be very persuasive to change my mind. YMMV.
Let Pimaspinner investigate whom he pleases. I think he should tell us so the other beat cop can investigate someone else (I don’t think its worth it to investigate twice at this time, but the cops can do as they see fit). If his target is a mason then that target can choose to out themselves, and then have Pleonast confirm/deny. Or not. At this point we have to put some trust into our power roles, and let them play the game as they see fit.
Unless I am misreading the rules, if Autolycus is the SK, there will be no target for Blaster Master at all, because he will not longer be the Vigilante - he becomes ordinary town upon the death of the Serial Killer. NAF: is this correct?
I strongly agree with every word of this.
We need a backup target.
My question to him is of general game strategy. Regardless of his affiliation, I see him as the kind of guy who would answer honestly in the pursuit of fighting ignorance. The point I’m currently trying to make does not concern specific people (just a specific role), and I asked JSexton twice to be sure he’d see it, since he is one of the more experienced players of this game.
I agree with the list, I’m pretty much equally suspicious of Lakai and Aguecheek; I think the suspicion of Pygmy Rugger, while understandable, is not nearly as strong or justifiable. I would recommend you target one between the two, and the other beat cop investigate the other, but I will resign to your choice regardless.
This is correct. A backup target is not necessary; I will lose my powers immediately upon Autolycus’s death if he is the SK and not the GF. Similarly, at this point, if neither **Fern Forest ** or Autolycus is the SK, because I think most of the town considers me just about 100% confirmed, if we think we’ve found the SK, then it makes little difference if we lynch or I target.
Well, assuming my math earlier is correct, if you are the SK, that’s a 56.25% [p(I(SK)|SK)] chance you would have come up as the SK, and if you weren’t, a 6.25%[p(I(SK)|~SK)] chance. That is, now that you HAVE come up as SK, we can conclude that the probability that you’re the SK based only on that reading is 90% [P(SK|I(SK))]. Add to that all of the research that pimaspinner provided and, well, I can’t think of a thing you could say that would help you. I’m convinced you’re not mafia, as I was yesterday, but the odds are just too high that you’re the SK to ignore.
Ah, very good point. I also believe this is correct after re-reading the rules. If the SK dies so does the VIG killing ability.
Therefore the point is moot.
**Pygmy Rugger **, ah I see. Just a general “how to play this game” question. Ok I suppose. Still though we are playing this game, and whatever he says must be taken in the context of this game. Again YMMV.