Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
281

[QUOTE=chrisk]
Okay, based on an idea that StarvingButStrong had in the werewolf commentary thread, I’m proposing an Open Detection System
[/QUOTE]

I’m not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

If we do decide to do this, I hope it goes without saying that Cops should never reveal power roles. If you investigate a mason, then you say that they’re a vanilla townie. The last thing we want is to give the Mafia ideas of who to kill.

282

Even if they get the same answer, they don’t know if it’s correct.

283

Damn, things are moving fast. I’m going to have to look into taking a leave of absence from work so that I can keep up with the thread.

First things first…RIP Captain Carrot, dnooman and One and Only Wanderers. we hardly knew ye. (Except, of course, that some of us knew you quite well from last time. But that doesn’t count. Or does it?)

Certainly a different start from last time. We had the good fortune then of knocking off the big, bad wolf right from the start. this time, we’re down three before we even get the ball. I get the feeling that this game is going to be quite a bit more “bloodthirsty”, if you know what I mean. Everyone knows what to expect this time around, either because they’ve been through it once, or because they watched the rest of us. And with the new rules, the bodies are going to be flying fast and furious.

I can understand the point you make in the first half of that statement, but I don’t see how the second half follows. Maybe it’s just because I am one of the returning players, but I’d like to have a slightly better reason for lynching someone. Also, if your reasoning is that returning players are being targeted because of their experience, remember that most of the “new” players were following the last game as well, so they also know who the returning players are. They would be just as likely to come to the same conclusion (that dnooman is too dangerous to the Mafia to let live).

We either need to come up with a good reason to lynch someone, or just pick at random (this being the first day). Picking someone because they have or have not played before just strikes me as “wrong”.

Now, if you’ll all excuse me, I’ve got a spreadsheet to work on.

284

[QUOTE=brewha]
Here’s how I interpret this post. (replace all “he” with “she” if applicable)

He’s saying that he’s a noob. What he means is underestimate me while I kill you in your sleep.

He’s saying that he’s sad for townie deaths, but he just wants to make sure you think that he is sad a presumed a townie himself.

Me? I was just too happy to have survived the night to have much immediate remorse for our fallen.

Too eary for me to vote, but I’m pointing the FOS at MonkeyMensch
[/QUOTE]

I’m a noob in the sense of this being my first game. On the other hand I followed the first game seriously closely, and am a fairly sharp tack (who isn’t?)

Anyway, I’m puzzled along with Rysto re the Vig’s targeting an experienced player. But other than puzzlement I got nuttin’, honey.

285

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
Am I missing something? Didn’t you just guarantee your death tonight? I’m new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

  1. You’re actually a Cop.
  2. You’re not a Cop, but you’re not Mafia either.
  3. You’re in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you’re not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn’t matter to them if you’re actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you’ll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

I have to be missing something…

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

I think his idea was that we all do it. Then if a cop is killed, we can look back at his claims and see if that gives us information. (It certainly would if he was a Detective, less so - as I just explained - if he was a beat cop.)

However, as Rysto points out, anyone making a claim the Mafia know is untrue (e.g. claiming a Mafioso is a Citizen) simply proves they are not the Detective.
The Mafia want to kill the Detective far more than Citizens, so this doesn’t benefit the Town.

P.S. If I were Mafia and only ChrisK claimed, I would leave him alone. Then the Town would lynch him for me.

286

[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
What??? I don’t think that is a good idea at all. Who would that benefit except scum?
[/QUOTE]

Ok, here’s the theory behind the idea: the Cops need a way to give us their findings without giving away their status. That way, if they’re killed before they role-claim, the Town still has the benefit of their information. Typically the idea is that they put subtle hints in a few of their posts.

The suggestion is that a whole bunch of players give out information as if they were a Cop. No one is supposed to act on the information because it’s of unknown veracity. If a whole bunch of players do this, then the idea is the Mafia has no idea who is actually a Cop and who is lying to provide cover to a real Cop. If a real Cop is killed, though, it will be easy to see what their information was. As I just posted above, I’m rather unsure of the idea for several reasons.

287

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
Am I missing something? Didn’t you just guarantee your death tonight? I’m new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

  1. You’re actually a Cop.
  2. You’re not a Cop, but you’re not Mafia either.
  3. You’re in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you’re not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn’t matter to them if you’re actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you’ll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

I have to be missing something…

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

I think he is Mafia and trying to get the Doc to waste a protect on him.If 1 or 2 are true, the Mafia will certainly leave him alone and we waste the kill anyhow.Contrary to my earlier post about lynching a returning player,and as much as I think sturmhauke and Winston Smith are Mafia.I gotta cast my vote for chrisk.

288

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
Even if they get the same answer, they don’t know if it’s correct.
[/QUOTE]

No, but their chances are mathematically better. (The same answer twice is 75% likely to be correct, rather than 50% for a single. If the cops get even a single ‘bad guy’ answer, they can both try the same guy the next day as well…)

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]

…this time, we’re down three before we even get the ball.

[/quote]

There’s a ball? :eek:
Damn, I need to reread the rules! :slight_smile:

289

Another question about the beat cops, apologies if this has been asked before, but I couldn’t find it:

So … let’s say a beat cop asks to investigate a player who is a Citizen, but this time around the cop is wrong. Can the player under investigation show up as a Citizen anyway (since role assignment is random), or can he or she show up as anything BUT the ordinary Citizen he or she really is? In other words, if the cop is wrong, does this mean that he or she is as likely to be right as anyone else taking a stab in the dark, or always wrong?

I’m still trying to wrap my head around the implications in either case, but it seems to me that if the first rule applies, one should trust the beat cop’s results since there is a better than 50-50 chance that they are right; whereas in the second case, I’m not so sure. (It also seems to me that if a player comes up as anything other than a Citizen, it’s most likely a false positive – but my math skills are rusty.)

290

[QUOTE=glee]

How does this help the town? :confused:
Can’t you find a better ice-breaker? :smack:

[/QUOTE]

It takes 10 to lynch. You are in no danger at this point. As I said, it was a random vote, and throwing out random votes at the beginning of the game is a very common thing. You shouldn’t take offense. Unless you have something to hide…

291

[QUOTE=Rysto]
I’m not entirely sure about this system. The trouble is, non-Cops are very quickly going to out themselves to the Mafia by making incorrect role claims. Even worse, unless every single person participates, the ODS will give the Mafia a smaller pool of players in which to look for the Cops.

If we do decide to do this, I hope it goes without saying that Cops should never reveal power roles. If you investigate a mason, then you say that they’re a vanilla townie. The last thing we want is to give the Mafia ideas of who to kill.
[/QUOTE]
Since Beat Cops don’t get reliable information, an incorrect claim doesn’t necessary reveal the false claimer as an ordinary Citizen. Also, the Detective (or anyone else) could intentionally give false info, to mislead the Mafia. But I don’t like the idea anyway: the Mafia are better placed to make use of the information by combining it with what they already know.

Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:

I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma

If I turn up in the river with extra-heavy boots, you can easily look at my lists (I’ll publish every day) and make your own inferences. The key is that I don’t reveal role information, which would help the Mafia target, but still give enough for the survivors to make better-informed lynchings.

This will work best if every Citizen posts their lists. (Mafia don’t need too. :wink: )

292

And a follow-up to FP’s question: are the wrong answers given to the beat cops equally likely for each role or are they weighted according to number of those roles present in the population?

293

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
Actually, it has to be a coincidence. The Mafia has only killed once. The three separate murders probably had the same motive, but we all know the SK, Vig, and Mafia aren’t in cahoots.

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

You are correct, FCOD, and I should have been more precise… like you just were. What I meant to say is that there’s a high probablility of all three parties choosing the more visible (read: Part One-involved) players. This is what I get for posting on the job… sigh

294

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Yup. And it’s 50/50 each time, not 50% of his answers will be correct.

Maybe useless maybe not. But it’s probably better than nothing.
[/QUOTE]

Well, let’s take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he’s going to be wrong, there’s a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual.

Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it’s clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 * 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 * ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he’s mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion.

Of course, all of that said, chrisk saying such a thing is suspicious to me at this early point in the game, because he’s going to either cast suspicion on himself by the mafia if he is not the mafia OR save the mafia from having to choose that individual from being targetted as potentially beneficial role to the town. OTOH, if he’s a beat cop, he could have also incorrectly identified a mafia or other beneficial role to be a vanilla townie, however unlikely, OR assuming he actually is a detective, he could feign beat cop and actually use the ability to protect a helpful role. Thus, as FlyingCowofDoom said, I’m curious to see how the mafia will react to this claim, but I don’t think it makes sense to lynch him at this point.

295

[QUOTE=Queuing]
I am wondering if we can get everyone to say their experience playing this game. Including whether or not they followed the 1st game of werewolf. I know that people can lie, and say they are inexperienced when they could be grand poobahs of mafia, however it could be somewhat useful as data. Or not.

Myself I had never even heard of this game until the thread from RT. It sounded interesting but as I didn’t know the game I didn’t try to play. I followed that thread, checking it every day. I never did a re-read or anything. I suspected Surbaban Plankton of being a mason, and agreed that Sturm may have been the seer (in the observer thread).
[/QUOTE]

This looks like **Queuing **is fishing out intelligent players.

Vote to lynch Queuing.

296

Rysto - Not a bad strategy. If everyone starts tossing out their “investigations” it’ll be completely useless until one of the people who’s posted “investigations” has been killed. Once Cops start getting killed, those seemingly useless bits of information will suddenly be a treasure trove.

297

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
he could feign beat cop
[/QUOTE]
I thought Cops don’t know if they’re a Beat Cop or the Detective…

–FCOD

298

[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch]
And a follow-up to FP’s question: are the wrong answers given to the beat cops equally likely for each role or are they weighted according to number of those roles present in the population?
[/QUOTE]

Equally likely, which should answer FP’s question as well. I am going to feed all the possible roles (as listed at the top of the game) into random.org and get the answer from there, if they are supposed to get a wrong answer. To decide if they get a wrong answer or not I am going to flip a coin and have the call heads or tails. To head off the next question…no they don’t know the outcome of the coin flip.

299

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
I thought Cops don’t know if they’re a Beat Cop or the Detective…

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

Based on one of my questions to NAF earlier, I was under the impression the cops knew whether they were a detective or a beat cop. If I’m wrong, then that changes everything.

300

[QUOTE=CaerieD]
Rysto - Not a bad strategy. If everyone starts tossing out their “investigations” it’ll be completely useless until one of the people who’s posted “investigations” has been killed. Once Cops start getting killed, those seemingly useless bits of information will suddenly be a treasure trove.
[/QUOTE]

True, but don’t forget my warning. The Mafia knows who is scum and who is Town. So they’ll be able to determine false Cops quickly, and thus will have a smaller pool of players in which to search for the real Cops.