[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Based on one of my questions to NAF earlier, I was under the impression the cops knew whether they were a detective or a beat cop. If I’m wrong, then that changes everything.
[/QUOTE]
They do know what type of cop they are. The beat cop WOULD be useless if they didn’t know they might be wrong.
Pleonast:
I like this.
This is going to be one crazy game. I’m already reading things into every post that I probably shouldn’t be.
Random.org told me to vote for hocow, but then when I tried it again it told me to vote for MonkeyMensch, so I don’t think it has any better idea of who to vote for than I do. So much for that.
I think we should be careful not to get a bandwagon rolling too early, since that only benefits the mafia. They already have more information than we do, and the only way we can get information is by flushing people out. If we bandwagon someone without a good reason we’ll be losing three more people without gaining anything. That is, unless we can get lucky and take down the Godfather in the first shot.
Well explained Rysto. A brave move by Chrisk. My feelings are we strike both Chrisk and Enfant Terrible of the list of people to kill at the moment. Not because I believe Chrisk (which I don’t really) but because he should now every day right after the killing give us his information. We wait until he sees a bad guy. We kill that bad guy. If he was right well then maybe he is a cop. If not, then he is dead. I know there is only a 50% chance he is right, but what else do we have to go on?
Right now this is a complete crap shoot, so lets act on the little information we do have, regardless of the truth. We can always find that out later. So that leaves us with 32 players to choose from.
So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.
[QUOTE=Pleonast]
Instead, I think it would be better for players to give lists of players they trust and mistrust. Something like this:
I trust: Aguecheek, Autolycus, cowgirl, Flying Cow of Doom, Menocchio
I mistrust: Blaster Master, Kivvik, MonkeyMensch, Zuma
[/QUOTE]
Even though I’m on your list, I agree that this is probably a good idea. This helps cover the idea behind the “everyone claims to be a cop” idea, except here the cops adjust their suspects based on their information, while giving such a large enough pool to hopefully not throw too much suspicion. Further, if the mafia post it, they’ll have to be very careful about who they put in the trust and mistrust rows because if we ultimately become suspicious of a particular person as being mafia, we may end up gaining information from the mafia as well when they try to hide their compatriots among the trusted.
[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
Damn, things are moving fast. I’m going to have to look into taking a leave of absence from work so that I can keep up with the thread.
First things first…RIP Captain Carrot, dnooman and One and Only Wanderers. we hardly knew ye. (Except, of course, that some of us knew you quite well from last time. But that doesn’t count. Or does it?)
Certainly a different start from last time. We had the good fortune then of knocking off the big, bad wolf right from the start. this time, we’re down three before we even get the ball. I get the feeling that this game is going to be quite a bit more “bloodthirsty”, if you know what I mean. Everyone knows what to expect this time around, either because they’ve been through it once, or because they watched the rest of us. And with the new rules, the bodies are going to be flying fast and furious.
I can understand the point you make in the first half of that statement, but I don’t see how the second half follows. Maybe it’s just because I am one of the returning players, but I’d like to have a slightly better reason for lynching someone. Also, if your reasoning is that returning players are being targeted because of their experience, remember that most of the “new” players were following the last game as well, so they also know who the returning players are. They would be just as likely to come to the same conclusion (that dnooman is too dangerous to the Mafia to let live).
We either need to come up with a good reason to lynch someone, or just pick at random (this being the first day). Picking someone because they have or have not played before just strikes me as “wrong”.
Now, if you’ll all excuse me, I’ve got a spreadsheet to work on.
[/QUOTE]
Oh,I don’t think he was considered to dangerous to live,last game.. he just pissed in too many cornflakes.I was actually surprised he made it as long as he did,considering some of his posts,course I had the advantage of knowing he was a wolf,but someone had a hard-on for him,those could be sturmhauke, chrisk and yourself.
I must say as well,your post is strangely different from the last game,which leads me to believe you have a different role.
Go work on that spreadsheet.
I just gots back from my friend Vinny at the dock helpin’ 'im investigate his shipment of tuna, see if anything smells fishy about it, and ya knows, it’s likes I’s always say: ya gotta trust your guts. Course, it goes withouts sayin that somethin stinks in this here town. But hey, I’m stayins even ifs it means the death of me.
If anyones needs me, I’ll be at The Bearded Clam nursin’ a Bloody Mary.
[QUOTE=Queuing]
So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.
[/QUOTE]
Wait, what? You want to kill players who played well last game? I’d much prefer that we keep players like him in the game. Any vote right now is essentially random, so basically any vote has the same chance of netting us a Werewolf. However, every player is much more likely to be town than anti-town(anti-town being Mafia or the Serial Killer), so intentionally getting rid of good players seems counter-productive to me.
Well, counter-productive for the Town, anyway.
That said about lists of people I trust and don’t, this is largely just gut at this point:
Trust: MadTheSwine, Rysto, chrisk (until he points out someone other than a vanilla townie, then we’ll see), Lakai
Mistrust: Autolycus, Queuing, CaerieD, MonkeyMensch
Yes, but I find it suspicious that he was not killed while other players who played last game (not as well IMO) were killed, namely doonman. Doonman seemed to have worked out who was who in the werewolf thread, and has been killed. I think it may have been because of this, and one of the former players is responsible for this.
Also how is killing good players only beneficial to the town? Doesn’t the mafia and the SK need to play well to win also?
[QUOTE=Queuing]
Yes, but I find it suspicious that he was not killed while other players who played last game (not as well IMO) were killed, namely doonman. Doonman seemed to have worked out who was who in the werewolf thread, and has been killed. I think it may have been because of this, and one of the former players is responsible for this.
Also how is killing good players only beneficial to the town? Doesn’t the mafia and the SK need to play well to win also?
[/QUOTE]
The idea is, considering that the roles have been assigned at random, it is just as likely that a good player from last game is mafia as it is that a new player is mafia. Since the town outnumbers the mafia, killing someone specifically because they were good is just as likely to hurt the town as killing a new player and that results in the town being more likely to lose a good player. I’d say, because of that, we should not suspect the good players from the last game until it’s not mostly a random vote like it is now.
chrisk’s vote count: 1 
Okay, to clarify, the scheme was meant as Rysto and glee suggested, that a large number of people (including the mafia etc if they want to chime in just to confuse things,) join in, creating such a loud amount of noise that nobody’s really suspected of really being a cop. [post=8357592]Here’s the post that started the idea.[/post]
The bit about the mafia being able to use the deal to quickly narrow down the identity of the detective as the only one who doesn’t falsely identify one of their number as townspeople is a good point, though. Unless someone else runs with the idea, I’m dropping it as of now.
[sub]Wondering whether I’m in line to collect the Winston Smith award this time. Promise I won’t fake a role claim to try to save my life. HONESTLY.[/sub]
Now, that is an interesting point. However, given that we have no idea why at least two people were killed(the victims of the Serial Killer and the Vigilante), I don’t regard sturmhauke living as being too suspicious at this point. I suspect that dnooman was the Mafia’s victim. dnooman was a Werewolf, so he would probably have some insight into the Mafia’s thought-patterns. Combine that with the spreadsheet he was going to look after, and that makes him an attractive Mafia target.
The reason I said that killing good players isn’t good for the town is because good players(like everybody else) are far more likely to be Town than not. So lynching a good player is far more likely to hurt the Town than help it.
chrisk, that’s why I propose the vague lists of trust and mistrust. Benefits of the system you tried, but with fewer drawbacks.
Holy moly this thread moves! And we have a hater of palindromes to boot! Three down, so all the bad people are in the game. I’ll have more time to fully read after work, so I’ll get to swinging the FoS like the rest of you then. Until then, well, gimme three drinks for the fallen, your choice, barkeep.
[QUOTE=Queuing]
Well explained Rysto. A brave move by Chrisk. My feelings are we strike both Chrisk and Enfant Terrible of the list of people to kill at the moment. Not because I believe Chrisk (which I don’t really) but because he should now every day right after the killing give us his information. We wait until he sees a bad guy. We kill that bad guy. If he was right well then maybe he is a cop. If not, then he is dead. I know there is only a 50% chance he is right, but what else do we have to go on?
Right now this is a complete crap shoot, so lets act on the little information we do have, regardless of the truth. We can always find that out later. So that leaves us with 32 players to choose from.
So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.
[/QUOTE]
I definitely agree with you on Chrisk - in spite of his unaccountable dislike for mozzerella cheese - in particular because I don’t think he’s actually claiming to be anything at all, just posing a hypothetical, and suggesting that everyone else do the same.
But Enfant Terrible is the only person so far who has really pinged my suspicious-O-meter, mostly because of this post:
[QUOTE=Enfant Terrible]
Of course.
does the obligatory two-eyes to two-eyes finger point
I see that we have the earliest vestiges of theorizing going on, and in my limited experience with this game, players who provide early breakdowns tend to have some sort of special role the rest of us just don’t have… hmmm.
[/QUOTE]
This reads to me as an attempt to keep people from analyzing (or, at least, to keep them from posting analysis), for fear of being pegged as scum. Since analysis is really all we have to keep us from making a random choice - and a random choice is really a bad idea, since statistically we are much more likely to choose incorrectly than correctly at this point in the game if we’re picking at random - this isn’t really a pro-town stance as far as I can see.
I’m no where near suspicious enough to issue an official vote yet, but this seemed worth mentioning.
[QUOTE=Rysto]
Now, that is an interesting point. However, given that we have no idea why at least two people were killed(the victims of the Serial Killer and the Vigilante), I don’t regard sturmhauke living as being too suspicious at this point. I suspect that dnooman was the Mafia’s victim. dnooman was a Werewolf, so he would probably have some insight into the Mafia’s thought-patterns. Combine that with the spreadsheet he was going to look after, and that makes him an attractive Mafia target.
[/QUOTE]
I agree with your reasoning behind dnooman’s death. As to why the other two targets were players of the last game, I think it may be simply because they had gotten to play before. That is, if it’s completely at random, wouldn’t it suck to be all amped about finally getting to play, missing the last game and then getting killed in the first night before you even got to participate in any of the voting? I suspect that’s the reasoning behind the SK and VIG, at least. Similarly, I expect that reasoning will be moot after this day, and the SK and VIG will go after who they believe are mafia because that’s their best chance for winning.
So, perhaps a good tell for who might be a potential SK or VIG would be if one of the people who dies is someone they voted for as mafia, and didn’t actually get lynched. Of course, that would be dangerous on their part because, the mafia will know that they’ll be keying on them for the best chance of victory and they’re probably more dangerous to the mafia than just about any of the other role because if they target individuals who were close to being lynched, they may end up both getting kills on the mafia resulting in potentially as many as three mafia deaths in one day between the lynching and their kills.
Vote Sturmhauke
He, as well as MadtheSwine, had masterful moves last game. Those two, along with dnooman, would be first to go were I scum.
Is his survival really *that * suspicious? No. The scum may not have been as impressed by him as I was, or they may have chosen randomly.
But it’s a strike against him, which is more than I’m feeling for any other player right now. (Save Mad, but I want to back up Queing since I had the same impulse and he’s picking up flack for it).
My goodness. I take one sick day and look what happens to this thread. I thought I could make it in while y’all were still sleeping off your hangovers … But now I’m the one with a throbbing head. You all kind of look scummy to me by now …
Someone pass me a Screaming Viking while I warm up my finger of shame.
Trust: Rysto
Mistrust: sturmhauke(Strange he wasn’t killed,I would have voted to kill him if i were Mafia) Winston Smith(I think the Mafia left me alone for Winstons benefit,had I been killed,Winston dies) chrisk(Wants information) Sub Plank (strange post)