Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

I know, I was thinking about giving you a pass since you have posted more than I have to this thread. But fair is fair. Gimme two more posts. :smiley:

Oh, and before someone else on my list comes up with the logic that they know that they’re not mafia (which is pretty much what I’m saying) so they should be taken off the list, it’s too late.

I’m sure that 50% of that list is scum. Probably 75% and maybe 100%. If I were scum, I wouldn’t have pointed out that these people didn’t vote for Aguecheek. Anyone who comes in after I pointed this out is just trying to cover their own butts.

If the rest of the town can get on board with this plan, we can still win.

Pygmy just hit 4 votes, just one more to start the 12 hour clock.

[GAME OFF]
Howdy, folks, and sorry for my late drop-in on the day. My wife decided that we would be making an outdoor patio this past weekend, which task I have never attempted before. Turns out it’s hard, and I just didn’t have a free moment. But I do have a new patio! Also, pre-emptive apologies for the fact that I will probably not be at my most active during this game Day. I have to take all day training on a new system here at work, so I’ll be able to check in briefly at lunch and in the evening when I get home; I’ll make my three posts by tomorrow’s deadline, but I can’t promise to be doing extensive back-reading or analysis during this period.
[GAME ON]

Fortunately, I am still comfortable with what I did yesterday, which was to vote Pygmy Rugger. Reasons remain as they were the last time I lined them up.

Other thoughts:

Other than Pleonast, I see no reason why anyone - myself included - should be outside of suspicion at this point. For me, this game breaks down as follows:

I think Pygmy Rugger is scum, or at least I have more reasons to think that than I have to think it of anyone else remaining.

I think Queuing is most likely not scum.

I have no real reads on Lakai, StarvingbutStrong, Kat, or Fretful Porpentine. This has to change, because it is exceedingly likely that at least one among them is a very well concealed bad guy.

Finally, there is brewha. I think brewha is an odd case. His suspicions, at least as he articulates them here, seem to blow with the wind. Yesterday, brewha found a convenient reason to remove his vote from Pygmy Rugger (he didn’t want to be on a bandwagon with Lakai and Queuing.). Note please that hocow, a townie, was lynched by a margin of one vote; brewha’s unvote (along with Fretful’s (?) late vote), preserved Pygmy at hocow’s expense. Now, note brewha’s actions so far today. He has concluded once again that Pygmy Rugger is likely to be scum, only a very short time removed from unvoting Pygmy because Queuing and Lakai were voting for him. This all seems like inconsistent thinking to me: if Pygmy is indeed scum, as I believe and brewha claims to, then why change your vote for him based on who else is voting for him? Who cares if it’s partly scum voting scum, as long as you kill scum?

Also, I’d like to suggest that he has repeatedly mischaracterized my own statements. Most recently, there was this:

brewha, if you’re reading, I’d like you to cite the post in which I became “extremely defensive” about anything. I am in fact fine with suspicion being directed at me, because I think at this point it is to our benefit to examine everyone (which was ultimately what I said to you the last time you went after me). And the last time you went after me, it was based on a characterization of my posts, which you said “reeked of scumminess” (a characterization you later had to retract for want of evidence). It seems like your approach is to make declarations that you can’t support, then hope that one of them will stick.

What does all this mean? I don’t know. It is entirely possible that brewha is just an overzealous townie. It is also possible that he’s Mafia, confusing things by misrepresentation and tortured reasoning then quietly backing off his vote of probable scum in a move to get hocow lynched.

All right, back to Documentum training. I’ll likely be back with another post or two later tonight.

Who hasn’t voted yet:
Fretful Porpentine
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Storyteller0910

The deadline is tomorrow morning? I’d be fine with lynching this evening.

I’ll switch my vote: unvote Kat, vote Lakai, for not voting yet. :slight_smile:

For the record, since the Mafia would be insane to not kill me tonight, my lyst of suspicion (high to low):
Pygmy Rugger
Lakai
Queuing
brewha
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Pleonast

Just one more question: so, yesterday, by your logic, the Mafia not only voted in a bloc, they voted in a bloc for one of their own? Because unless I missed something, three of the four people on that list voted for the fourth.

This is what I mean. Weird, inconsistent thinking.

Vote count

5- Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, brewha, Storyteller)
1- Lakai - (Pleonast)

The clock started at 9:03 am Pacific time, so there are 11 hours and 47 minutes left today if the clock isn’t stopped.

Still need one post each from Queuing, **Storyteller ** and Lakai.

There’s a chink in the armor of my plan. If there is only three mafia left, would could lynch someone on my list that is town.

Queuing, since you recanted your vote for Aguecheek, I’m less inclined to trust you. But, you did vote for him before you recanted. You have said you’re only reservation on voting for Lakai is that he was investigated and came up town. Well, if you are not mafia, there is only three mafia left. That means that he has a 33% chance of being the Godfather if the cop was right. Between the chance of the cop gettting the wrong read and the chance of him being the GF, I think that there is more than enough room for doubt. He has acted much more scummy than Pygmy Rugger IMHO. So, I want you to switch your vote to Lakai. If you do and he comes up mafia, I know I can trust you.

Pleonast, I see you voted for Kat since she had the third vote for howcow. Well, if she is town, she had no better idea than any other town where hocow affiliation lay. Since she did vote for Aguecheek, I think that show her to be trustable.

StarvingbutStrong, I’ve had a feeling you were town. I’m happy to trust you at this point. You are also dubious about Lakai. I say we take him out today.

My trust/distrust list.

Town: Myself, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, StarvingbutStrong,Pleonast

Mafia: Lakai, Pygmy Rugger, Storyteller

Unknown: Queuing.

I’m willing to believe that the split it either 6/3 or 5/4

The only reason I want to switch votes is that I don’t entirely trust Queuing at this point. If he is voting Pygmy Rugger and is Mafia, than PR is town. I’d rather see Lakai, who I believe is either the Godfather or gave a wrong read to our cop, get lynched today.

unvote Pygmy Rugger
Vote Lakai

I think it’s very peculiar that the only person that has cast a vote for somebody other than me is Pleonast. I think Fretful is right, this is a lynch that the Mafia wants to go through. They only have to kill 2 more townies during the day before we lose the game. Do you really want me to be one of them?

Unless, like I said, there is only 3 mafia left. In which case, it would be the 3 out of the 4. I don’t see what is so weird about that logic.

New Count
4 - Pygmy Rugger - (StarvingButStrong, Kat, Queuing, Storyteller)

2- Lakai - (Pleonast, brewha)

Back to 23 hours remaining.

…still waiting for our trainer to show up, so I’m going to make my third post, but I’m going to have to type fast. Please forgive typos.

Because you continue to assume that the Mafia is voting in neat and tidy ways that will make identifying them easy. Those were the assumptions that led to the massive foulup way back on Day 2. Consider: you generated your list by looking at people who didn’t vote for Aguecheek. So you apparently think that the three remaining Mafia, or three of the remaining four, abstained from voting for one of their own as a bloc (Aguecheek,), then turned around a voted for one of their own as block (Pygmy Rugger). Why on earth would they do this?

I think it much, much more likely that at least one Mafia will be found on the list of people who voted Pygmy, at least one will be found on the list of people who voted hocow, and at least one will be found on the list of people who voted for neither. They’re going to spread themselves out if they have half a brain among them; continuing to suggest otherwise is either incredibly unwise or an attempt to distract attention from all the people outside the convenient little voting bloc you’ve posited.

And I note that you’ve again found a reason to withdraw your vote from Pygmy Rugger at a time when doing so has an impact on the game. Not probitive by any means, but interesting.

That really is brilliant. I honestly can’t tell you off the top of my head who else voted for who I voted for yesterday.

If someone FOS’d me and three other people, I wouldn’t think “hey, two out of the other three voted with me yesterday.” Now, if I were mafia and knew the other two mafia, and knew that we had all voted for the same person, that event would stand out in my mind.

Pygmy Rugger has a point. It really does seem like the mafia wants him dead. This looks bad for my opinion of Queuing.

The good news is that we don’t have to determine if Queuing is town or scum right now. We just need to take this one day at a time. Storyteller has just jumped to the top of my scum list. Right now, it looks like him, Lakai and Queuing are the ones that we should take out.

I stand by my vote of Pygmy Rugger. I see no reason to change my vote to gain the trust of some person who seems to make less and less sense as the game goes on, and who votes seemingly randomly.

There now I won’t be modkilled :slight_smile:

Of course I post the previous post before reading Storyteller’s. My logic, as well as my vote withdrawl makes sense if Pygmy Rugger is not mafia.

Yes, I believe that the mafia is voting together. I beleive there is only three of you left. There is not enough mafia left to play shadow games and still win.

When I first became suspicious of you, it was because you didn’t vote for Suburan Plankton. Now, you didn’t vote for Augecheek.

As far as making it obvious. The mafia has not. That explains why you voted for, then recanted your vote for Aguecheek.

On preview, I see that Queuing is sticking by his vote. Starvingbutstrong, Fretful Porpentine, and Kat; we need to band together as town. If you don’t want to vote Lakai, at least explain why not.

Pygmy Rugger it would behoove you to vote Lakai as well.

Although I trusted Lakai a couple days ago, he has voted for me twice in the past two days, and hasn’t laid down any real reasoning for doing so. I think you’re right, I’m going to vote Lakai. I think he may be one of the scum gunning for me. If I die today or tonight, when I come up town, I urge you all to look very closely at the four current votes against me.

Unvote Lakai. Vote brewha, for very strange accusations. Note, that I still stand by my [post=8545962]list of suspicion[/post] above.

As they say, vote early, vote often.

Pleonast, what is strange about my accusations?

Rysto, Kat, Fretful Porpentine, MonkeyMensch, StarvingbutStrong, and Howcow all voted for Agucheek. The mafia is coming down to their last few members. I highly doubt that mafia would vote for their own at this point so we can eliminate them. If I take myself out of the list because I know I’m not mafia and I take you out since you’re a mason, that leaves:
Queuing
Storyteller
Pygmy Rugger
Lakai

Storyteller just pointed out that he, Queuing and Lakai were on the Pygmy Rugger bandwagon yesterday. The only reason I ever suspected Pygmy Rugger was due to accusations made by Queuing. It is all making perfect sense to me.

We are on the same side. We really can’t have the town argueing at this point. If you want to vote for me, at least explain a few things. If I were mafia, why would I want to lynch the top two out of three on your list? If you trust your own suspicions, you can see we are on the same page.
Why are you suspicious of Pygmy Rugger? I know I was, but I’m not sure why. We can still lynch him later if he proves himself to be scum, but I really don’t think he is.
Why would you vote for me when there are three people on your scum list higher than me and when we agree on two of them?
I’m not that worried about getting lynched with just one vote, but I see that we can win at this point. You don’t trust Lakai. Starvingbutstrong, Pygmy Rugger and myself don’t trust Lakai. Let’s lynch him today. If he comes up town, I’ll gladly turn in my resignation.

I’m unhappy with both of the two leading candidates right now: Pygmy Rugger because too many people seem to want him to get lynched too much, and Lakai because I don’t think he’s shown enough suspicious behavior to make me comfortable overriding pimaspinner’s reading of town. I could change my mind, but I don’t want to vote for either of them right now. I think that Queuing is probably town. I think at least one of StarvingbutStrong, storyteller0901, and Kat has to be Mafia, but I see no good way of deciding which are which. So I’m going to go ahead and vote brewha once again, since he seems to have cast an awful lot of votes for townies and no final votes for Mafia.

OK, pimaspinner read Lakai as town. By now you have to understand how unreliable a beat cop’s reading is. Even if it is greater than 50%, there is still a chance that he is wrong. Combine that with the fact that we haven’t found the Godfather yet and I think we can throw that reading right out. There’s likely 3 mafia left. One of them has to be the GF. If it’s Lakai, he would have come up town even if the detective had investigated him.

I see a good way. StarvingbutStrong and Kat voted for Aguecheek’s lynching. Storyteller did not.

Fretful Porpentine, I believe you are town. But, you have put me in a bad situation. With your and Pleonast’s votes, the mafia can swing in and finish me off easily. Please reconsider your vote. Realize that there is a better than average chance the either Lakai could be the GF or that Pimaspinner got a bad read. If you’d feel more comfortable, I’d be happy to lynch Storyteller. But, I’m sure Lakai is mafia.