Right now, I’m not switching my vote to Lakai because, basically, the person pushing the most for his lynching is coming across as batshit insane. (No offense. I just never get to use the phrase “batshit insane” as much as it deserves to be used.)
On preview:
You didn’t? Who was it who posted in 3588 who said:
Wait–but you did add in the same post:
So, it’s just more contradictory posting, in the same post this time. Want to get your story straight?
The old fashioned double breakdown, huh? Haha. Well, I was talking about the way he acted in this game, right before he got lynched.
Unvote brewha; vote Lakai, again. Brewha seems more manic than scummy, at this point. And others are higher on my list of suspicion. So back to Lakai.
I don’t really remember Winston Smith’s death in this game. Everything before Today (game day) is all a blurry haze. I think I blocked it out due to PTSD after the 10th or 11th reread.
OK, one coherent and concise post to explain my thoughts.
The day before last, we lynched Aguecheek. hocow’s vote count is here
Then, Storyteller switches votes to Pygmy Rugger.
Finally, Queuing switches his vote to Pygmy Rugger as well.
As a bonus, here Storyteller defends Queuing even though he wasn’t in trouble. The same way Queuing just confronted me about my Lakai vote although Lakai is not in any real trouble.
After that the day ends and Aguecheek is lynched. He turns out to be mafia.
The next day I vote for Lakai. Other people vote for howcow and he gets lynched.
Today, based on StarvingbutStrongs suggestion, I made a list of who I trusted. Here’s the people that are left:
Brewha
Queuing
StarvingbutStrong
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Pleonast
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
I know I’m not mafai and I know that Pleonast is not mafia. The list then gets shortened to:
Queuing
StarvingbutStrong
Kat
Fretful Porpentine
Storyteller
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Then I look at the final Aguecheek vote and find that Fretful Porpentine, Kat, and StarvingbutStrong all voted for him. That cuts the list down to:
Queuing
Storyteller
Lakai
Pygmy Rugger
Since Queuing, Storyteller, and Lakai have all been trying to get Pygmy Rugger lynched, I concluded that they are in on it together. So that leaves:
Queuing
Storyteller
Lakai
I think these three are difinite scum, with Pygmy Rugger as an alternate if they were playing mind games with us. But I tend to doubt that since they would have wasted their votes two days in a row since Storyteller and Queuing both voted for Pymgy Rugger yesterday as well.
My original vote was for Pygmy Rugger since that’s where the band wagon was already headed. After looking back and seeing The other three voting for him, I decided to change it to the next most likely candidate.
That’s what I think. I’m done arguing. Take this info and do with it what you wish.
Okay, that makes much more sense. For the record, I disagree with you on Queuing, based on the info I posted previously about Aguecheek pushing to get Queuing lynched. I will take another look at Lakai’s history, though, to see if there’s anything that moves him higher on the Mafia List.
When does Today end again?
Thank god for small mercies.
FWIW, I am voting for pygmy rugger because I think that storyteller has laid a fairly good case against him. I don’t see that anywhere else. I don’t think brewha has laid out a very good case against lakai, or storyteller or myself. Its all based on us 3 voting for the same person, someone he himself voted for, apparently due to it being the bandwagon. This is what I meant by his vote changing. He always seems willing to jump on a bandwagon, and then get off of it or not, as the case may be. I don’t understand this. Nor do I understand the big deal he is making out of the aguecheek votes. I changed my vote, as I explained it then, because I was uncomfortable voting for a potential cop.
I agree that there is little chance that the mafia are voting in blocs. They have played to smart for that, and are very close to winning this game.
Kat, winston smith went down screaming about elaborate conspiracy theories that involved a very well thought out and executed mafia plan. One that would be almost impossible to put together. He is somewhat famous for his flameouts in this game now. Provides a lot of fun really :).
I tend to agree with brewha’s theory. Even though the final Mafia members wouldn’t be voting in an identifiable pattern, it only takes two Mafia and three town to sway the vote. It’s no coincidence story was the last to hop on the wagon. And Queuing was the third vote.
Fretful, SBS, what do you think of it?
18 hours 35 minutes from right now.
I am shocked… shocked… to hear this is the case, as his theory, cracked though it might be, exonerates you completely.
I was the last one on what wagon? On yours? I’ll leave it to others to judge the truth of that contention.
Okay, I just got home and ran for the computer – who needs to eat dinner? If hubby gets too hungry, he can do the cooking.
Lots and lots of interesting posts over the last eight hours or so. Maybe because I’m reading them en masse, but I seem to see a definite pattern.
Here goes (I’m just going to use post numbers, all posts are on the past two pages)
Recent posts that bother me:
3596, by Brewha:
As I pointed out before, it was THE MAFIA who got the SK. On the face of it, Brewha is identifying with the Mafia. Yes, it’s a minor thing, but other minor things have turned out to be significant slips, too. Wasn’t one of the dead Mafia caught because they referred to a night killing as a ‘lynch’?
Brewha, post 3574
Actually, nobody except Queuing, Kat and I had voted for PR at that point. Lakai’s only post being what looked to me like a ‘see, here I am posting about voting’ without actually voting.
Yeah, everyone makes mistakes, but with only three votes cast at that point…
Brewha, post 3588 – an overall weird post, IMHO. Brewha not only unvotes PR, he launches a VERY determined campaign to get people to switch to Lakai.
So Brewha strokes Q by saying he’s finding Q less scummy, claims this somehow means there are three instead of 4 mafia left (huh?), then pressures Q to vote for Lakai with what seems to be an implied promise that if Q does so, Brewha won’t vote for Q in future? “I know I can trust you.”
The Brewha does the same for me: more ‘I trust you’ strokes, a ‘we’re all townies together’, ending with more 'so let’s band together to kill Lakai.":
Well, it’s nice he thinks I’m town, and in fact I am, but I don’t like feeling I’m being softsoaped to swing my vote.
Pygmy Rugger 3589
Say what??
Mostly we’ve been working off an assumption of there being 4 mafia left, meaning five town, and a single town kill this day means victory for the Mafia tonight. The only way there’d be a need to kill two townies during the day is if there were really only 3 mafia left:
3M/6T, minus a T lynch today = 3M/5T, the night kill brings it to 3M/4T, meaning still another day lynch of a townie is needed before the Mafia can win.
IOW, it looks very much like Pygmy Rugger was assuming that there are 3 Mafia alive now. Why would he think that, when the rest of us are thinking 4?
An obvious reason could be that, as Mafia, Pygmy KNOWS there are only three, and he slipped up and instead of adjusting to his thoughts to match what real citizens would think, he used the true number.
As far as I’m concerned, that looks like a big tell.
Then comes Brewha 3593
So much for Brewha having said he no longer thought Queuing was mafia not many posts ago.
Well, here’s an interesting thought experiment. Suppose I’m right: Pygmy Rugger is Mafia, and he just slipped up and revealed there are only three Mafia left.
So what could Mafia do to try to save PR, if there’s only two of them left besides Pygmy? They can’t just vote as a block of three including PR for anyone else – they might as well burst into a chorus of “We Three Thugs of Mafia Are.” A ‘block’ of two will hardly be noticeable. The only hope would be to recruit some real townies to swell the count against a chosen townie…which sort of describes what Brewha was doing in 3574, doesn’t it?
All of which means: I am more determined than ever to see Pygmy lynched, and today’s a good day for it.
In addition, because of his desperate attempts to save Pygmy – not just the above posts, there’s more ‘we townies must band together and kill Lakai’ in 3595, 3598, then in 3600 Brewha throws in an offer to switch to Storyteller, instead, since he didn’t seem to be finding many buyers for his Lakai campaign. – Brewha has jumped into my number two slot. Hopefully he’ll be getting to do the Gallow’s Gavotte tomorrow.
And, as the chosen target of Brewha, I guess that means Lakai must be town.
(Hmmm. So who is number three? If this scenario turns out to be true.)
Then, in post 3609 Pygmy returns the favor a bit. (I believe this is called ‘log rolling’ – I vouch for you, you vouch for me.) Pygmy tries to explain Brewha’s strange posts by saying he’s a townie decompensating a la Winston. But at that time Winston was under attack. Why should Brewha have been so stressed?
Damn, you’re right. I completely missed that numbers thing. Maybe brewha’s not batshit insane, maybe he’s just crazy like a fox.
I may have been the 3rd vote this one time, but come on! Are you seriously trying to use that as proof of my scuminess? I could be wrong because I haven’t read the last few pages, but I am pretty damn sure the first post from me of every day for the last few has been a blue one against you.
SBS, good analysis. That was a clear showing of just how flighty brewha has been. As well as interesting pick-ups on the potential for there only being 3 scum left. I also wonder why the call to SBS and Fretful from PR. How come no mention of Kat?
Why Pygmy Rugger did you ask for Fretful and SBS to out their 2 cents in regards to the theory of brewha and yours?
My sense is that they’re BOTH trying to cozy up to as many townies as they can.
I agree with SBS’s analysis (good catch on the numbers thing!) I’m keeping my vote on brewha for the moment, because I feel marginally surer about him, but will switch to Pygmy Rugger if it looks like he’s in danger of getting unlynched.
I guess it is actually the 12 hour 17 minute warning, but that has less of a ring to it.
See y’all in the A.M.
Yes, you were the last one, in chronological order, that voted for me.
9players - 2dead townies - 4mafia = 3townies < 4mafia=end of game.
How is that flawed?
No, that wasn’t any type of proof of your scuminess. That was a very bad joke at somebody vs. somebody else (don’t remember who) claiming that since they made the third vote towards somebody (drw), they must be scum. Guess it wasn’t very funny.
I didn’t ask for Kat’s 2 cents because she had already given her opinion. I was asking for the opinions of those who hadn’t explicitly expressed theirs yet, and she already had.
I spent the last half hour trying to rationalize the voting patterns if Pygmy is mafia.
It does not seem to work. The mafia could easily switch their votes to me right now. Since Pleonast has voted for me, I have three votes, and one of them is town. If the mafia had three members they could force a tie right now. If they have two, then today’s vote isn’t too important. If they have four members they could end the day by voting for me. If I’m not mistaken, everyone has posted since Pleonast’s last vote switch to me. Everyone had an opportunity to vote and tip over the votes for a townie. They didn’t because there is a probably a townie on death row right now.
Pygmy can’t be mafia. If he is, then the mafia are either brain dead or just toying with us.
This means that mafia voted for Pygmy. Out of his voters I am going to vote for StarvingButStrong.
She started the day off by voting for Pygmy and saying that “nothing has changed for her”. I thought that means she laid out her suspicions of him previously, but it appears that she never did.
Then she goes out and finds something so that Pygmy can have something to argue against. Those two posts made me think that SBS was simply riding the “FOS Pygmy” wave.
It’s not the best reason to suspect someone, but I have given up long ago at being absolutely certain that someone is mafia. This combined with the fact that pygmy can only be mafia if the mafia feels like messing with the town instead of winning, has made me vote for SBS.
I’m also beginning to think that brewha might be town. He has supported an unpopular position (lynching me) for way to long now. Why would mafia want to attract so much suspicion?
Sorry for the triple post, but I realized I won’t be able to post again until the deadline and thought that I should add a few more things.
First, brewha should change his vote. Not because it is for me, but because his theory sucks. Mafia will vote for other mafia. His whole thought process seems to be banking on the assumption that they won’t. Out of his three top suspects, Storyteller voted for FCOD before he was outed by Hockey Monkey (pimaspinner) and Queuing voted for Suburban Plankton. To dismiss most of the players from suspicion simply because they voted for Augecheek is ludicrous.
Brewha, what makes you so sure that no mafia voted for Augecheek?
Second, Pleonast should stop with the random voting. If we have four scum among us then all it takes is one wrong move by a townie to lose the game for us. Since Pleonast is the only one I know is town, I will ask him to put more thought into his votes instead of just voting for people with little posts.
That’s about it. I hope to Og that there aren’t four mafia members out there.
Well, Lakai, I’ll agree with you on one thing. If there are four mafia left the town has lost. Since there are votes on three different people, the mafia can change their votes and kill any one of the three that they choose.
It appears that they have chosen Pygmy Rugger at this point. But, he indeed could be mafia. They may just be waiting with their votes on him until there’s one minute left then switch their votes to a townie. Or, he could be town and they have every intention on leaving their votes where they are.
The point is that we are screwed because the mafia is much better organized than we are.