I apologize for not citing your post earlier. I knew someone had posted that but my head was spinning and I was too lazy to find who it was.
Right now, based on sensible advice in their postings, I’m inclined to trust Rysto, CaerieD and nesta.
Jury’s out on Autolycus. I know that I was toying with posting some “mafia-lingo” type wording, based on the theme, but I passed on the idea, mainly because I figured it would be annoying, and possibly suspicious. He could just be trying to be cute,but then again…
Also haven’t decided yet if it’s suspicious that MadTheSwine has started in on Winston Smith right away or not.
If there’s nothing to analyse, why vote?
Hear, hear!
I’ve stuck in analysis and want to be judged on that.
If I post rubbish, lynch me.
If I get assassinated, you’ll know my stuff was good.
To give us something to analyze.
Doesn’t the discussion do that, too?
It does, but if we’re not throwing out random votes, people are throwing out random accusations instead. There’s not much of a difference, really.
I agree that doonman was probably the mafia kill. My thinking is that he was to dangerous. He had shown in the past a willingness to create a spreadsheet, had threatened to do so in the game, and had shown himself fairly adept at role guessing.
So that, to my thinking, explains 1 of the kills.
So why the other two?
OAOW complained about the number of night posts, talking about how hard it would make it analyze. S/He said this twice, in #119 and #220. Post 220 was a rebuttal to something Chrisk had posted in which Chrisk had though the night posts were a good idea, to get to know one another.
I still have Chrisk in my somewhat trusted level, however, so I am not putting much weight to that exchange. Of course, if Chrisk made a false role claim, or just came a little to close to making a role claim, and now no longer posts his “investigations”
Captain Carrot said 3 things at night, nothing to interesting (so I thought at least).
Making something of a jump here, but I think OAOW was killed by the SK, and captain carrot by the VG.
I to am curious about what Autolycus has to say. He has gone strangely quiet, and I agree with whomever said that it seems odd to me, he does seem to like attention. In fact I would like to hear from everyone who has been voted for. More information is never a bad thing.
I have been voted for once, and made the distrust list of a couple of people. This was, as far as I can tell, because I am posting. I am posting my thoughts about this game. I will not stop that, even if it gets me lynched. Lakai said it seemed like I was trying fish out the intelligent players. What I was doing was trying to see the experience of players, to see if someone would lie about it, and could later be caught in that lie. If you lie once, you should die. Simple as that. Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea. Lakai has only posted 3 times to this thread, one of which was a vote against me.
Currently my vote stands (sturmhauke), but the more I read the more suspicions come.
The hamsters ate some of my post:
still have Chrisk in my somewhat trusted level, however, so I am not putting much weight to that exchange. Of course, if Chrisk made a false role claim, or just came a little to close to making a role claim, and now no longer posts his “investigations” my level of trust will go down. At some point (I say day 3, that should give us 3 of his investigations, we should try one out then)
People I trust:
**
Captain Carrot
dnooman
One and Only Wanderers**
People I distrust:
everyone else
Seriously, we have no information to base anything on at this point. There is absolutely no reason for any of us to trust anyone. Of course, there really isn’t much reason to distrust anyone at this point either, but its so much more fun…
There are a couple of things which have piqued my interest thus far:
**glee **was very defensive when **Smitty **pointed the FOS at him (post 267). A while later, he posted this
He seems to be going out of his way to make sure we all know he isn’t Mafia.
Lynch glee.
Agree. The cop is our most valuable resource. Narrowing the pool of possible cops only helps the mafia. If the cop dies, we can always go back and examine his posts for clues.
This is nice. I would add that if a beat cop stumbles on the doctor during investigation you might want to give them a second look as well. That way we’d have a cop who could subtly, subtly derail any mistaken lynching attempts on the doc.
Damn, I got killed ten hours before I got home. Good luck, townies – you’re going to need it with three deaths per day.
And you thought it would be beneficial to role-claim the first day with just one vote on you why, exactly? Best case is that you’ve now narrowed down the list for mafia. Worst case is that you are mafia.
We’re all, by default, role-claiming as vanilla townie. Enfant could be lying about his role in town as easily as he could be lying about being town.
It’s only claims of extraordinary roles that we should be suspicious of. Claiming to be vanilla town is just playing the game.
Posts 255 and 357 respectively by Enfant Terrible. The first one looks suspiciously like scum because, as was pointed out earlier, it seems like he would prefer no theorizing. The second just looks like a desperate attempt to pass off as a townie. These, I think, provide strong enough tells for me to vote to lynch him. Unless someone else can point out a compelling post of his.
Sling up Enfant Terrible!
Well, just leave me “War and Peace” to read why don’t you?
Ok, light has shown and I’m feeling peppy. Despite my clogged kitchen drain.
This game is much harder to see logically then the other game. It seems like we might not have a clear town victory until the very last day. Depending upon how tough the GF is to find.
The Serial Killer’s goal should be to rid the town of Mafia first. A Mafioso majority will insure them victory and him loserdom. If only the town plus the SK is left then he had a hope of being the last alive in a town where the streets run red with blood. Tough job but I hope he does well, just not great. There should be no reason to claim SK since doing so would mean you lose. You don’t get to claim town or mafia victory, you have only your own victory to shoot for.
The vigilante’s goal should also be to rid the town of Mafia first. Then once they are gone, find and kill the SK for Town victory. If he kills the SK too early we’re left with 1 town kill versus 1 mafia kill rather then 3 to 1. A vigilante could claim. Who they attack that night would still go through even if they die. And they could hope to have the doctor protect them giving the town basically two discusable kills per day/night cycle. You know, this could work. Claim and let the town help you decide. Although it’s even better if you keep quiet and the town help you make a decision by talking about who the VG should kill. SK too. If we’re smart we can help direct the three kills. This might help us get even more information by seeing who was urging who else to be killed.
They can also become a defacto seer. For instance let’s say you try and kill someone but fail. Then either you were blocked or that person is the godfather. Try again and get blocked again I think it’s exremely likely you’d have found him. That might be worth claiming so we can get him known and kill him.
The Miller might be able to use themselves as defacto seers. If they try to block someone and someone doesn’t get killed that night then they have a nice large foam FOS. They might want to drop clues in their post the day after for us to pickup should they get killed.
Detectives are interesting. Check this out. In the rules of the last game let’s say there are 6 known town versus 6 unknown. And that night the detective does his work as do the scum. If a scum is investigated then the next day there are 5 known town versus 5 unknown and 1 scum. Good but the town is still behind. But if he investigates a townie then the next day there are 6 known and 5 unknown. Giving the town a guaranteed victory. The best thing we could get from the Det. is a whole bunch of townies we can mark as “safe.”
But this time things are more difficult, there may be a GF within the safe. We’d have to go into the second to last day up by 3, say 4 to 1. So we kill the last unknown but the game keeps going. Out of those 4 there is 1 and only 1 scum. He kills that night leaving 3. They have 1 day to get it right, if they fail town loses. So we want our detective, when he’s forced to come out (or however it happens) to give us a day advantage of 3. Unless we happen to get the GF then we can do it with an advatage of 1. Of course if the SK sees this he will try to stop us and work against town, at least for the time being. He cannot let the town achieve the status of guaranteed victory.
I’m having a hard time seeing the logic of the beat cop.
Doctor. With so many killings going on the Doc’s best move might be to keep himself alive until more important people are forced into the open. Better to lose a mason then have a mafioso protected from the SK or VG.
Not sure about the GA either. If you get one shot might be best to lay in wait to use your power.
Mafia. There gole is to kill all townies. Any person that gets known, either as Det or Vanilla is dangerous to them. They have to keep us in the dark. The more we know about ourselves the more dangerous things get for them since the smaller the pool is that we have to pick from.
GF. He might be playing it low. Not even talking to the other Mafia. A method actor so to speak. Or he could be actively conspiring with them. Either way his goal again is to keep us in the dark.
Now who to kill? Who to kill? I feel like a kid in a candy shop. Only the kid is Pugsley and the candy is actually candied eyeballs.
Okay, I’ve done some more calculations for the beat cops; someone please correct me if I’m wrong. As I said before, if the beat cop investigates someone once, then the probability that he is what he shows up as what he actually is 56.25%. If he investigates that person twice, and he shows up as the same thing twice, then it jumps to about 92% probability that that is what he actually is.
If he shows up as something different each time it gets a lot more complicated, so to simplify, let’s just go on my earlier assumption that all the roles except for mafia are beneficial to the town. Under this assumption, if a someone is investigated twice, and they show up differently, but neither of the investigations showed up as mafia, then that’s about 88% probability that he’s a role other than mafia. If someone is investigated twice, and one of the roles is mafia, then if he is mafia, there’s a 49% chance that will happen, versus a 12% chance if he isn’t mafia.
IOW, it looks like a beat cop is just a little less than half as good as a detective because it basically takes two nights to have a good pin on what role someone is, but then it’s only a good pin, not a perfect one. So if there really is one detective and two beat cops, then it looks like we have the equivalent information of about 2 detectives working each night.
My understanding is that the game ends once there are no more Mafia or the Mafia outnumber non-Mafia. The SK wins as long as they’re alive when either endgame condition is met. NAF, can we get a clarification on this?
God, this is honestly going to be harder than I thought to keep up with this many people (and posts). Nobody has me on their trust list, dammit. But nobody has me on their mistrust list, so yay!
Here’s the one thing that I was thinking of when the “day” started: look for the third vote. That’s the first thing that jumped out to me from the first game, although it was pure luck that it actually worked. But the fact that it made an impression on me damn well means it made impressions on other people. So I know, that you know, that I know, that you know. So, really, no help, except that if someone posted it without thinking about it, then tried to backtrack with a whole “lynch me, that’s ok, I don’t care, but I’m only a poor citizen,” then I get suspicious.
Because that’s the other thing I thought of from the previous game.
So I’m not voting for **Enfant Terrible ** yet, but I’m wondering about him.
I agree with this strategy, and it was actually one I was going to suggest. As long as the town has a reasonable lead, it makes sense for the SK to fight on our side to shorten the game and VIG to go after mafia to shorten it further. If the mafia starts to get close to the 50% mark, the SK will switch sides and go after townies. As we get closer to the final vote for the day, I imagine we can more easily cast suspicion on other vote getters and/or casters to suggest for VIG and SK targets.
I don’t agree with this per say. It is NOT in the favor of the mafia to kill a known vanilla townie at this time, because it’s more important that they go after the cops, sk, vig, and doctor. If they kill a known townie, they’re using a turn that they could be killing a random townie in hopes of finding a special role, to kill someone they know isn’t a special role. It’s only useful to kill known townies after most of the special roles have been killed off. Thus, having known townies at this point only helps reduce the mafia’s potential targets; this is exactly why it’s not a good idea for masons to come out until it’s a benefit to the town to have known townies so we can reduce our targets.