Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
381

Trust - Blaster Master, Menocchio, Rysto, Storyteller0910

Distrust - Enfant Terrible, Queuing, chrisk and MadTheSwine.

I am still wondering why Queuing would ask that we should not be suspicious of Enfant Terrible. He does so here.

He never gave his reasons and I would like to hear them.

Also after Pleonast casted suspicion on him for asking not to lynch Enfant Terrible, Enfant Terrible did not appear on his trusted list in his next post . This is inconsistent behavior, which is compatible with someone who has to lie a lot.

I don’t like Enfant Terrible for the reasons stated by Blaster Master in his post shortly before this one.

TheMadSwine has been throwing around vague suspicion in posts 308 and 338.

I don’t like chrisk for no other reason than the fact that Queuing defends him.

Three people have voted for Autolycus so far, but I think that Enfant Terrible and Queuing have more concrete suspicion against them. All Autolycus has done was fool around with his character, which is not suspicious enough for me to cast a vote for him.

382

[QUOTE=chrisk]
Sturmhauke, did your drinking buddy say anything intelligble that might explain why he was killed off?
[/QUOTE]
You know, I just don’t trust drinking buddies.

Vote Sturmhauke

383

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Well, let’s take a look at what kind of numbers a beat cop would get, first, we consider the known roles in the game: scum (includes potential millers), townie (potentially includes gf), doctor, ga, cop, vig, sk, mason. That means, if he’s going to be wrong, there’s a 1/7 chance for each of the other roles to be chosen for the individual.

Thus, if the result is vanilla townie, then it’s clearly more likely that the individual is a townie because he was either right (1/2 * 100%) or he was wrong (1/2 * ~14%), thus, if he was a townie, he has a 50% chance of showing up as one, but if he was something else, he only has about a 7% chance of having shown up as a townie. Further, of those 7 other roles he may have been, clearly most of them (doctor, ga, cop, mason, vig) are in the favor of the town. IOW, if someone shows up as a townie from a beat cop, he’s mostly safe and, all other things being equal, should be treated with less suspicion.

<snip>

[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
Equally likely, which should answer FP’s question as well. I am going to feed all the possible roles (as listed at the top of the game) into random.org and get the answer from there, if they are supposed to get a wrong answer. To decide if they get a wrong answer or not I am going to flip a coin and have the call heads or tails. To head off the next question…no they don’t know the outcome of the coin flip.
[/QUOTE]

From what I understand of this NAF said he was going to feed the roles into random.org each night to get which role the beat cop would see for the person investigated, if he is wrong. I’m assuming the cop calls heads or tails when he says who he wants to investigate. So EACH TIME, the outcome is 50/50. Not that the cop will be wrong on 50% of all of his investigations. Theoretically, he could be wrong on 100% of his investigations if he calls the wrong flip every night. Also, if he were to investigate the same person every night, he could theoretically get a different answer every time for 7 or 8 nights (depending on how many actual roles there are in the game). I do agree that if he gets the same answer on successive nights that the likelihood is greater of having a right answer, because of the randomness of the wrong answer.

I may be making no sense at all here, (I’ve been buried in this thread for about 3 hours, and my head is just about full) but I just don’t see how the beat cop is going to factor as a power player.

384

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I don’t agree with this per se.
[/QUOTE]

Since there’s a “no editting” rule, I still have to correct this because it urks the hell out of me when I spell something like this wrong.

385

[QUOTE=pimaspinner]
I may be making no sense at all here, (I’ve been buried in this thread for about 3 hours, and my head is just about full) but I just don’t see how the beat cop is going to factor as a power player.
[/QUOTE]

Well, once the probability of the beat cop having correctly identified scum is higher than the probability of a random vote being for scum, it’s a better strategy for us to follow the beat cop’s information.

386

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Since there’s a “no editting” rule, I still have to correct this because it urks the hell out of me when I spell something like this wrong.
[/QUOTE]

Are you irked or urked?

387

[QUOTE=Rysto]
Well, once the probability of the beat cop having correctly identified scum is higher than the probability of a random vote being for scum, it’s a better strategy for us to follow the beat cop’s information.
[/QUOTE]

As I was composing my post, so was Blaster Master, and it seems to make a little more sense now.

Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto

Don’t Trust: Autolycus, Enfant Terrible, FlyingCowOfDoom

388

After some more re-reads, here’s another update of who is suspicious to me

Trust: Rysto, Lakai, Storyteller0910, chrisk (but only for today, if he stops posting his investigations, he goes right to my mistrust list)
Mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Queuing, CaerieD, Autolycus, MonkeyMensch

Thus, I would say we should lynch Enfant, the VIG should kill Queuing, and the SK should kill CaerieD.

I have a gut on a couple of the other roles too, but it’s obviously not to our benefit to air those suspicions.

389

[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
Are you irked or urked?
[/QUOTE]

Damn you! :o :smack: I just can’t win. Doom on the teachers who taught me to spell this way. I swear, I’m normally a really good speller.

390

[QUOTE=Rysto]
My understanding is that the game ends once there are no more Mafia or the Mafia outnumber non-Mafia. The SK wins as long as they’re alive when either endgame condition is met. NAF, can we get a clarification on this?
[/QUOTE]

This is true. SK wins if they are still alive when the game ends. It doesn’t matter what end condition is fulfilled.

391

It will be hard to keep up with everything, so it will be easy for people to miss something and make a mistake. This is very useful! It’s why people need to be listing who they trust or don’t. Saying you don’t know is lazy. People are posting–read and think about it. Very soon, I’ll start mistrusting anyone who holds back.

Townies need info and whoever withholds it is not working in our best interest.

I trust: Blaster Master, Chrisk, Gadarene, Rysto, storyteller0910.
I mistrust: Enfant Terrible, Menocchio, Queuing.

Trusting Rysto for his analysis; even if he’s Mafia, he’s helping us out for now. Mistrusting Menocchio for attacking sturmhauke just becuase he survived the first night. That’s a not good enough reason.

392

Barkeep, another bloody mary please. I gots this big headache and gotta goes to work soon and these loud peoples wont stop yammerin’ about some crime problem. I’ms as sad as anyones that peoples were murdered, but every towns has crime right, so what’s the big fat hairy deal? If ya asks me, everyone should minds their own business.

393

Okay…as others have mentioned, it’s way more than I anticipated and will still be thinking about it for a while.

In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he’d had being assigned citizen.

And I think he was assigned mafia.

He was just as good a player earlier as dnooman had been last game (better, imho); I felt he managed to fly below the radar much longer than dnooman did. Were I mafia, I’da voted for him first and gone for dnooman second. The promised spreadsheet would not have had enough data on it to be much good by the time the second night rolled around. The only reasons I’d say he didn’t go first was either because he was mafia… or the mafia could only get one at a time and he’s set to go second.

There’s been much discussion throughout as to why he wasn’t killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he’s mob (as noted above). But if he isn’t, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should’ve been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn’t picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn’t pick him? C’mon. If he’s not mafia, then he’s one of the other two killers.

And on the 2/3 chance that he’s either scum or the Serial Killer, I say lynch sturmhauke.

And an FOS to Autolycus too. Nothing concrete, I just think he’s doth protesting too much with the mob act, and has been pretty quiet since he was called on it.

394

Word of note. Most of my logic is simplified. The logic in this game would drive Spock mad. Mad I tell you. Mad.

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I don’t agree with this per say. It is NOT in the favor of the mafia to kill a known vanilla townie at this time, because it’s more important that they go after the cops, sk, vig, and doctor.
[/QUOTE]
Let me explain better. Right now there are no known townspeople. A known townsperson is a person who we are almost positive that they are on our side. Getting people into the known categoryis very hard. No vanilla would be able to do it to himself. It would take the work of the Det. or the Cop. The Masons could come forward and make themselves known but shouldn’t want to do that. That’s what I meant by known.

And as an example let’s go to the previous game. As night fell there were 4 confirmed townies by the seer plus 2 masons confirmable by the known mason. On the other side there were 8 unknown persons. Now 2 were masons. This meant there were 6 known and 6 unknown. Disregarding what was suspected at the time that night the wolves could have knocked off a known person leaving 5 known and 6 unknown to choose from. Assumging every day an unknown was lynched and every night a known was eaten it would have gone like this. Known v unknown: 5 v 5, 4 v 5, 4 v 4, 3 v 4, 3 v 3, 2 v 3, 2 v 2, 1 v 2
And so on that last day if a wolf still existed the known town would have had a 50/50 chance at getting the wolf. If not, the wolves win that night. Basically the wolves still had a shot.

But instead they ate an unknown on that 6 v 6 night. This meant that in the morning there were 6 known townies and only 5 unknown and instead the days would go like this: 6 v 4, 5 v 4, 5 v 3, 4 v 3, 4 v 2, 3 v 2, 3 v 1, 2 v 1, 2 v 0. When the wolves ate an unknown (Ogre) they were doomed to defeat. Of course it was made worse for them since the seer still lived. What’s even more interesting (for our Det) is that night the seer investigated dnooman and found he was a wolf. That day it was still 6 v 5 though. But if instead he had found out one of the other vanilla townies that day there would have been 7 knowns versus 4 unknowns. Meaning the victory was assured even quicker.

So when our Det. comes forward with data it is the smart Mafioso who takes that list and kills them one by one even the vanilla. Of course the Det and other roles come first but they should kill the vanilla before going fishing again.

I do see a possible exception though. Let’s say the Det is forced out and gives us some knowns. The Mafia kill him and the other roles and at that point the knowns (only vanilla) v unknowns is something like 6 v 8. The town is nowhere near victory so the mafia can continue to fish. But let’s say they fish and get a known townie, 6 v 7. Next day town kills an unknown leaving a 6 v 6 town. Now if they fish that night they wake up to a 6 v 5 town and the town is guaranteed victory provided the SK, VG and GF are all gone.
Boy, my fingers are going to be mere stubs when this game is over.

395

And of course, while I’m busy pouring my heart out, he’s no longer quiet…

Heh.

396

[QUOTE=pimaspinner]
Trust: Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Rysto
[/QUOTE]

Now thems some warm and fuzzies.

I also trust chrisk. His reveal post kinda makes him the Winston Smith of this round. :stuck_out_tongue: Sorry buddy, I just don’t think that’s a good idea at all. And Blaster Master has a good feel about him.
I think the SK should get Autolycus and the VG Flying Cow of Doom. Now if you were a Flying Pig this game might just go by a little quicker.

“Hey, hey, hey. Weee, look at me.”

397

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
In regards to assigning current roles and roles played in the last game, I am of the belief that all roles were assigned randomly, and that sturmhauke had as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as he’d had being assigned citizen.
[/quote]

This just isn’t true. Last game there was about 20 players and 5 Werewolves. With the roles assigned randomly, that gives any player a 25% chance of being scum and a 75% chance of being Town. Assuming that NAF used approximately the same ratios, that means that there’s about a 75% chance that sturmhauke(or indeed, any other player) is Town.

Why would the SK or Vigilante want to target a strong player? They’re both trying to help the Town.

398

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]

And an FOS to Autolycus too. Nothing concrete, I just think he’s doth protesting too much with the mob act, and has been pretty quiet since he was called on it.
[/QUOTE]

What’s you talkin about blue-face? I always been talkin’ like this. You thinks I’m a mafia, wells that’s your own business. Mama always saids to mind your own business. Ya know, this heres my hometown. I’s been part of this god-forsaken rat-hole since befores you left yer mama’s blood box. You think this is an act? I’d shows you an act, and theres wont be an encore, but what the fuck, I’m willins to let by-gones be’s by-gones. A punk likes you 'aint worth my time.

399

[QUOTE=Fern Forest]
Boy, my fingers are going to be mere stubs when this game is over.
[/QUOTE]

Okay, I see your point. However, as you point out, when the unknowns highly outweigh the knowns, it makes the most sense for the mafia to fish; once they get close, it makes more sense to kill knowns, no matter their role, even if the doc/seer/vig/sk is still alive among the unknowns. Obviously, there’s a point of balance there, but I have no idea where it is, and I wont’ even try to calculate because that’s only going to help the mafia. At least at this point, I think they’re going to fish, especially since there’s still zero confirmed townies.

What does concern me a bit about the trust vs. mistrust lists, is that if enough people list a particular person as trusted, that may make them a target for being too helpful. Thus, for the doctor, if he’s being actively pinged by anyone, he should probably protect himself; if he’s pretty much under the radar, he may be of the most benefit if picks one of the most trusted to protect. That said, if we can convince the mafia that one of the most trusted people is probably being protected by the doctor, they may pass them over and go toward some of the others to try to avoid wasting a potential kill on someone that is likely to be protected and allowing the doctor to go back to protecting himself.

400

[QUOTE=Rysto]
This just isn’t true. Last game there was about 20 players and 5 Werewolves. With the roles assigned randomly, that gives any player a 25% chance of being scum and a 75% chance of being Town. Assuming that NAF used approximately the same ratios, that means that there’s about a 75% chance that sturmhauke(or indeed, any other player) is Town.
[/quote]
Bad wording on my part, sorry. I meant he had just as much of a chance of being assigned mafia as anyone else in this game. That NAF did not take previous roles played into consideration at all.

You say the SK should be pro-town (post 251). I say we should be trying to figure out who the SK is just as quickly as we try to figure who the mafia is. With the SK out there, we’re losing 2 people a night. Once the SK is gone, the Vig is gone…and then we’re only down to 1 a night. Right now, you could say the SK is responsible for 2 deaths. Not just his/her own victim. Less killings all 'round, makes it easier to smoke out the mafia.

If they’re alive at the end of the game, they win, regardless of any Citizen/Mafia ratio. Taking out a strong player ensures less analysis, less debate, less educated finger-pointing and more random lynchings. The only worry for the SK is being randomly picked as opposed to being ferreted out by a good player.

Additionally, all victims last night were previous players. Consensus is that dnooman was taken out due to his skill. I’d hazard a guess that there was also a little bit of desire on all killers’ parts to thin the previous players to allow others to play, selfish yes…also human.

Each victim, OaOW, dnooman, and Captain Carrot were previous players. Each one got through the whole game, or a large part of it, all in an admirable fashion. sturmhauke was one of the the more visible players of the lot. And yet he wasn’t killed. I’d say out of three independent factions, all of whom targeted previous players, one of them should have targeted sturm. The fact that he wasn’t leads me to believe that he has to be a member of one of those factions, and got lucky on the other two.