Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Fern_Forest]

Here’s an interesting final scenario.

Mark, Valerie and Steve walk down the gallows stairs shaking their head. Tom the Townie was dead. Each go to bed eyeing the others warily knowing someone’s going to wake up dead. Later that night Valerie the Vigilante sneaks out of her home at midnight and parks a few blocks away from Steve’s house. She finds an unlocked basement window and squeezes into the house. After a few hours of hiding she hears Steve get up to take a late night leak and BLAM shoots him dead. Exhuberant from her kill she returns to her car and puts the key in the ignition and BLAM is blown to bits by the bomb placed in her car’s engine by Mark the Mafioso an hour before. Mark, watching with binoculors from his bedroom window a few blocks away laughs gutterally and takes a sip of champagne to celebrate. Champagne poisoned by Steve the Serial Killer.

Three way tie, can it happen?
By the way, another thought. The doctor should only declare when he’s about to be lynched by the town, even if a Mafia is claiming Doc status. Better to remain hidden and protecting someone like the Detective then reveal yourself. While a Mafia claiming Doc status would be free from lynching for awhile eventually you’ll get lynched and then we lynch the faker. A one for one trade is in our benefit but it’s even better for us if we can keep those protections you have for a few more days.

[Blaster_Master]

@Aguecheek

You say the SK should be pro-town (post 251). I say we should be trying to figure out who the SK is just as quickly as we try to figure who the mafia is. With the SK out there, we’re losing 2 people a night. Once the SK is gone, the Vig is gone…and then we’re only down to 1 a night. Right now, you could say the SK is responsible for 2 deaths. Not just his/her own victim. Less killings all 'round, makes it easier to smoke out the mafia.

I don’t agree with this. It is in the SKs interest to have the shortest game possible to maximize his survival, thus, from the get go, since there are fewer mafia, it only makes sense to assist the town, unless the town starts to flop, then he should switch sides. Regardless, the VIG is always going to be anti-mafia, and because the SK is hard to pick out, with no obvious tells, it makes more sense for the VIG to target the mafia to maximize the potential for winning. If he largely goes along with the voting of the town, he can kill someone who would have been likely to have gotten lynched the next day anyway, ultimately saving the town the extra day (and ultimately the extra night murder by the mafia). The VIG should only really expressly target the SK when it’s suspected that he’s switched sides to the mafia, because then he and the SK are pretty much a wash, and if he can kill the SK he becomes a “known townie”.

Each victim, OaOW, dnooman, and Captain Carrot were previous players. Each one got through the whole game, or a large part of it, all in an admirable fashion. sturmhauke was one of the the more visible players of the lot. And yet he wasn’t killed. I’d say out of three independent factions, all of whom targeted previous players, one of them should have targeted sturm. The fact that he wasn’t leads me to believe that he has to be a member of one of those factions, and got lucky on the other two.

Let’s keep running under that assumption. Let’s say the mafia saw dnooman and sturmhauke as threats. Obviously, if sturmhauke is mafia, they won’t go after him, but what if he’s not, and maybe they saw them as relatively equal threats. Considering, even by dnooman’s own admition, the possibility that there might have been a lasting vendetta, that could have been enough to tip the scales in his favor. Now, the mafia would be foolish to kill sturmhauke tonight precisely because he looks so suspicious to so many of us. Would you say the same thing about dnooman if the kill had happened the other way around?

[Blaster_Master]

@Fern Forest

By the way, another thought. The doctor should only declare when he’s about to be lynched by the town, even if a Mafia is claiming Doc status. Better to remain hidden and protecting someone like the Detective then reveal yourself. While a Mafia claiming Doc status would be free from lynching for awhile eventually you’ll get lynched and then we lynch the faker. A one for one trade is in our benefit but it’s even better for us if we can keep those protections you have for a few more days.

Absolutely, the doctor declaring is almost certainly a losing move; obviously, any mafia declaring to be doctor is foolish too, because he’ll either be pegged right away, or when the doctor does finally bite it, he’ll be lynched immediately. Similarly, there’s no benefit to the VIG coming forward either, unless he’s about to be lynched. The only roles I can see possibly being worth coming forward are one of the Masons to perhaps give us some information (in a way similar to how OAOW did last game) or a cop, under the hope that he’ll be protected by the doctor, or at least be assumed to be protected so they won’t even bother to attack him.

Of course, there’s always the problem of whether or not we can really trust someone who claims to be a cop, the Masons are much easier to believe, especially since, if a mafia claims to be one, he’ll be called out on it by a true mason, we kill both (maybe only one, if we’re lucky on the one we choose) and at worst we’re done one mason for one mafia.

All of that said, I still think that anyone claiming a role at this point is foolishly tipping their hands. A Mason shouldn’t be compelled to come forward unless a mason is either about to get lynched, or is a requested target of the VIG and/or SK.

[sturmhauke]

Goddamn this thread moves fast. And I’ve already collected 4 votes! Time for some rebuttals…

@Queuing

So I guess I will just throw a vote out there, and go with Sturmhauke. This is because I believe he played the best of the players from last time, and did not get killed.*

:dubious: Uh, thanks? Maybe the folks who did last night’s killing thought their victims were more dangerous than me. Sure, I’m a good player, but it’s not like the universe has unanimously decided I’m the Lord High Mafia Player Of All Time.

@MadTheSwine

…as much as I think sturmhauke and Winston Smith are Mafia.I gotta cast my vote for chrisk.*

I guess you think I’m mafia for the same (scant) reason as Queuing, there, but what is the deal with you and Winston? Again?

@Menocchio

I’m talking about the fact that some scum will crack if put under pressure. Become overly defensive. Make obvious lies. That sort of thing. Not everyone is a good liar, even over the Internet.

Yes, let’s put them under pressure, I agree. That worked well for me last game. Oh, and you can stop voting for me while you’re at it.

@Aguecheek

There’s been much discussion throughout as to why [sturmhauke] wasn’t killed the first night by either the mob, the Vigilante, or the Serial Killer. I think he’s mob (as noted above). But if he isn’t, there should still have been a very good chance for him getting offed by the Vig or SK for the very same reasons he should’ve been targeted by the mafia. And yet he still wasn’t picked. That good a player, and three different factions didn’t pick him? C’mon. If he’s not mafia, then he’s one of the other two killers.

I suppose it makes sense for the SK to target good players, to create confusion, but why would the Vig want to do that? Remember, the Vig is on the town’s side, while the SK is completely independent. The Vig’s best strategy is to kill players most likely to be mafia, not because of their skill level.

Look, guys, if the mob or SK think I’m dangerous, they’ll probably just kill me tonight. They can’t off everybody at once. Voting for me because you think I should have been killed last night because you think the scum think I think too much is, well, a poorly thought out reason to vote for me.

Anyway, here are my trust and distrust lists:

Trust: nobody, yet. Maybe Rysto, a little, for the spreadsheet.
Distrust: everyone who voted for me - Aguecheek, Fern Forest, Menocchio, and Queuing. In addition, I think Menocchio and MadTheSwine have it in for me because I helped get both their furry selves lynched last time.

And in conclusion, I shall vote for Aguecheek, who is quite zealous in leading the charge against me, while wielding some rather spurious reasoning.

[sub]*Color tags stripped from quotes to prevent vote miscounts.[/sub]

[Malacandra]

<ooc>Sorry folks, I saw the news of the kill last night (UK) but had to go deal with a sick kid.</ooc>

Yeesh, what a mess. Too early to pin anything down with so much still unknown and yet it sure feels like severe pressure with the body count hitting three on the first night and every likelihood it will continue to do so unless someone manages to take out the SK!

Personally I think Autolycus fits the psych profile of someone who’d think he was being no end of clever by running a double bluff, so I’ll cheerfully vote Autolycus for now. But, call it a hunch or intuition or whatever, I’m not sure about hocow. Can’t really explain further. It’s hard enough trying to digest >100 posts without too obviously goofing off on the company nickel.

[Fern_Forest]

If your car trunk has more then 2 dead bodies in it you might be a mobster.
If you’re constantly telling your wife to keep her nose out of your business you might be a mobster.
If you keep a bag of cement in the back of your car ‘just in case’ you might be a mobster.
If your last name is an adverb you might be a mobster.
Ok, now I’m a dead man ain’t I?

[zuma]

I’m most suspicious of Queuing at the moment.

His fishing for experience information in post 268 bothered me.

His explanation inpost 367 didn’t sit well with me.

@Queuing

Lakai said it seemed like I was trying fish out the intelligent players. What I was doing was trying to see the experience of players, to see if someone would lie about it, and could later be caught in that lie. If you lie once, you should die. Simple as that. Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea.

How exactly did you think you were going to catch someone in a lie? I highly doubt anyone who played in the first werewolf game would lie about it. Just about everyone here either participated in that game or followed along. If they were playing somewhere else, well, you wouldn’t catch them anyway.

Your first post made it seem as if you were looking for the best townies to execute, and your explanation doesn’t make much sense in my eyes.

@Lakai

I am still wondering why Queuing would ask that we should not be suspicious of Enfant Terrible. He does so here.

He never gave his reasons and I would like to hear them.

Also after Pleonast casted suspicion on him for asking not to lynch Enfant Terrible, Enfant Terrible did not appear on his trusted list in his next post . This is inconsistent behavior, which is compatible with someone who has to lie a lot.

I’d like answers to these questions as well.

Autoclyse and his speaking like mafia is bothering me… I’m not sure if he’s being so over the top about it because he wants to be the class clown, or if he’s going so far over the line that he wants us to think there would be no way actual mafia would do it.

I’d like to here some actual contributions from him, because if he’s town, he’s not helping our cause at this point.

Trust: * Master Blaster, Rysto, Lakai*
Distrust: * Queuing, Enfant Terrible, Autoclyse*

As far as Sturmhauke goes, yeah it’s interesting he’s still here, but Mafia’s dnooman choice was just as defensable. I need more than failure to die to put a vote on someone. Now that he’s started posting we can watch how he behaves, which is how I’ll ultimately judge him.

And finally, Vote: Queuing

[zuma]

Also, my apologies to everyone whose name i misspelled or otherwise screwed up. Autolycus and Blaster Master.

[kivvik]

Man, thread grows four pages every time I get a chance to look at it. What I’ve gotten so far:

Autolycus I’m unsure of. He acts all strange, but I can’t tell if it’s just an act, or if he’s crazy. Or both. I’ll give him a glance, but no FoS yet.

Rysto I trust for his spreadsheet, in spite of the supposed risk. Brave or stupid, I cannot say.
Winston,I like for honestly no real reason, I just hope for an encore of last time.
The Various Dead: I trust as there are presumably no zombies in this game.
Blaster: Seems to have a good head on him. He’s thrown so much out there to go over, be it cover or a serious attempt at layings out for those of us new to the gameplay. Trust so far.
Enfant Terrible: I find the chest-beating ‘Kill me and kill a loyal townie’ stuff… annoying. The more someone does that, the more desperate they seem to want to be believed. Not so much with the trusting right now.

Suburban I distrust, for doing the trust/mistrust thing I was going to do :mad:
Pleonast I have my eye on. You unvoted me sure, but to hate me for my palindrominess? /sniffle (when I made my name I actually didn’t palindrome on purpose, it was just a name.)
More to come when I awaken and see all the new posts, hoping to get some thoughts on the rest of you. No vote, no real FoS yet.

[glee]

@Suburban Plankton

Seriously, we have no information to base anything on at this point. There is absolutely no reason for any of us to trust anyone. Of course, there really isn’t much reason to distrust anyone at this point either, but its so much more fun…

You do have some information already. Some posters are giving analysis and suggestions - good for the Town. Others are just making Mafia jokes or even lurking.

@Suburban Plankton

There are a couple of things which have piqued my interest thus far:

**glee **was very defensive when **Smitty **pointed the FOS at him (post 267). A while later, he posted this

@glee

P.S. If I were Mafia and only ChrisK claimed, I would leave him alone. Then the Town would lynch him for me.
He seems to be going out of his way to make sure we all know he isn’t Mafia.

Lynch glee.

Smitty didn’t have any reason to pick me. He just chose randomly.
I think such random choices are a mistake, because once a couple of townies have chosen another townie at random, the Mafia can pile in and get them safely lynched. (Remember there’s probably 9-10 Mafia in this game - more than enough for that purpose.)

Secondly please check my meaning.
First came ChrisK’s suggestion for Open Detection (post 273).
Then came this reply:

@FlyingCowofDoom

Am I missing something? Didn’t you just guarantee your death tonight? I’m new to this game, there are three outcomes as I see it:

1. You’re actually a Cop.
2. You’re not a Cop, but you’re not Mafia either.
3. You’re in the Mafia.

If 1 or 2 is true, the Mafia (who know you’re not one of them) would kill you, because it doesn’t matter to them if you’re actually a Cop or not. If 3 is true, you’ll be alive tomorrow, in which case we should lynch you then.

Which I agree with.
So I built on FlyingCowofDoom’s analysis and realised that the Mafia could leave Citizen ChrisK alive (and kill someone else), whereupon the Town would mistakenly lynch ChrisK.
I don’t consider this ‘going out of my way to deny Mafia’, just helpful analysis.
Soon after ChrisK dropped his suggestion.

Now the Town want to lynch (in order):

1. Mafia
2. Serial Killer
3. Citizens who don’t post anything useful
4. Citizens who do analyse (doubly useful for the Town, since they will presumably also be active in the final stages)
5. Named Citizens

Obviously the first two categories are **way better ** for the Town.
But unless there are any clues, we should lynch category 3. (Do you really want your ultimate fate to lie in the hands of a Citizen who just posts jokes?)

Finally I trust : Blaster Master, Fern Forest, Flying Cow of Doom, Fretful Porpentine, MadTheSwine, MonkeyMensch, Pleonast, Rysto and Storyteller0910

I don’t trust: Autolycus, Smitty and Winston Smith

Lynch Autolycus

[Menocchio]

I trust: Myself. Until there’s an undisputed role claim, I have no reason to believe anybody else. Even Rysto’s invaluable spreadsheet might be a dodge. Dnooman used a similar strategy last game.

I distrust: sturmhauke, of course, MadtheSwine, Autolycus, Enfant Terrible

I strongly disagree that the SK will be necessarily pro-town. They might be for the first few nights by default, but if it looks like the Mafia is winning, they’ll switch to a pro-Mafia strategy really quickly.

[zuma]

Autolycus, your village idiot schtick needs to end here and now. You are piling up votes, and my worry is that you are actually a townie, and you’re distracting us from finding real mafia.

I’ll again ask Queuing to explain himself.

Other distractions are “Why is sturmhauke alive”? Frankly, he was the bad-ass because he was the seer. He had the most powerful role. Dnooman had a much tougher time of it as he had to lie his entire way through the game. I’m tired of re-hashing the last game. Let’s focus on the current one.

[Autolycus]

Cazzata! I’s wakes up after a hard days work, and whats do I’s see? A fuckin lynch mob at my doorstep. Mama always saids I weres a popular boy…

Heys youz guys, I gots nothings to explain. I 'aint never killed nobodys.

Infischiarsi! Believe whats ya want, dont bothers me none, I’s just wish youz didnt wake me up so violent-like, ya bunch of ceffos.

[Autolycus]

@zuma

Autolycus, your village idiot schtick needs to end here and now. You are piling up votes, and my worry is that you are actually a townie, and you’re distracting us from finding real mafia.

Makes me tough guy. I ‘aint give a shit about no “mafia” see? Peoples die every day, dont mean it mean somethin’ You’s dont like it, then maybes you dont belong in this town.

Ya know, ya seem suspicious to me, but I’ms a non-violent type. So leaves me the fuck alone, capiche?

[Gadarene]

Are there any players who haven’t yet posted?

(I might take a crack at this later today once my judge leaves chambers, but I wanted to throw it out there.)

[MadTheSwine]

Just wanted to point out that the VIG and SK can kill Mafia also,seems like some of you are forgetting that.

[Smitty]

The three people who have been acting the most suspicious to me:

Enfant Terrible - in an earlier post (and I’m NOT going to dig through all this for a number) you stated something to the effect that people who do a lot of analysis this early in the game tend to have power roles. A townie should NEVER give away any information, or even speculation, about who has power roles unless it is to save that person from a lynch. Anything else just gives ammo to scum. Why in the world would you do that?

Autolycus - you may just be clowning around, but if you are not scum, you are hurting the town. You are heading toward a lynch and you don’t seem to care. Lynching a townie is bad news for the town.

glee - your continued hyper-defensiveness of what was a random vote does not look good. In fact, it looks very suspicious, indeed. If you wouldn’t have continued to harp on it, I would have unvoted you by now. Go look at mafiascum.net. Random votes at the beginning of a game are the NORM!

[zuma]

SK or vig kill would be the best thing for Autolycus at this point.

[Malacandra]

Yes, the vig can kill town, but he loses if the scum win, so it’s in his interest to kill scum if he can. The SK doesn’t care who he kills, he just wants to be alive at game end. It’s slightly to his benefit to kill town as the town only win when *all * the scum are dead.

[storyteller0910]

@Enfant Terrible

I have no fear of being pegged as scum. Lynch me, lynch a vanilla townie. It happens. I’d prefer it not happen, but then, that’s the point of the game.

I’m actually going with my own strategy, which, until I can find a better way to play, seems to be the easiest way to play Townie. Always tell the truth. Full disclosure. If I reach the status of confirmed townie and stick around long enough, hopefully I can actually help with the whole ‘deducing the scum’ part later, but for now all I can do is hope the guys with the guns stay away from me and continue playing Honest John.

I acknowledge that there’s no way for me to really prove I’m a townie unless the detective starts laying breadcrumbs that I’m innocent. That would be a blunder greater than getting involved in a land war in Asia, so I’m perfectly content to lay out the truth and hope for the best.

OK, but the problem right now is that the above post is utterly indistinguishable from what you’d say if you were scum. “I’m going to be honest” is something that every one of us, honest and dis-, would say, right?

More significant to me is the fact that you didn’t address the actual content of my post, which is that your post (#255) seems designed to warn people away from actually participating in discussion and analysis (or it’s an attempt to out the pro-town power players, which isn’t good either). If this was not your intent, what was?

And then you post the above, in which you say that you have no information on which to base your own analysis. Well, we now have several trillion posts to this thread, and every one is evidence of some kind. Is there no one or nothing that seems suspicious or worth discussing to you? My point is, if you’re really a Townie, we don’t want to lynch you; give us a reason not to.

Anyway, since I went to bed last night there have been quite a few additional developments, so I’m going to do a bit of reading before I cast an official vote.