Excellent work, Rysto.
I think we may have uncovered a conspiracy here.
I shall defer my vote for chrisk (lych all liars), but only to prevent setting off the lynch early. It’ll take something huge to take my vote away. Like a mafioso confessing.
And well you should be. There are at least 2 factions out and about in this town that want to kill you. And me. And every single citizen of this fair town. No baseless suspicions here. It’s realinoia. I coined that with the accent on the al and the first i pronounced like the i in pit.
Either way I threw some rocks at you and am very comfortable with your reaction. Mainly you actually read what I had to say. So I Unvote Gadarene. Even though you
Three people I think they want us to kill for them and one we did.
OK, in just a few hours since the break of dawn, there is A LOT more information to pour over. I will do a more in depth analysis if I get time tomorrow during work, but my initial impressions after reading through today’s posts have me re-thinking at least one of my earlier positions. Blaster Master is looking very fishy to me right now. I was trusting him because of his very detailed posts about beat cop probabilites. CaerieD listed him as a mistrusted. I think this was her breadcrumb. Then going back and reading Blaster Master’s trust/mistrust lists, I saw that he listed Lakai as trusted, but Lakai had not posted anything that could sustantiate even getting on a trusted list. Seems like he knows who his “friends” are.
Blaster Master is looking like scum right now to me. Especially after his explaination post. That only served to increase my suspicion. I’m also inclined to think Queuing is town. I’ll be looking closely at all the people that Blaster Master put on his trust lists. FlyingCowOfDoom you are also looking suspicious.
Is there any particular reason that you’ve had it out for me since the game started? You keep calling me suspicious, but you never say why.
–FCOD
Oh, and unvote Queuing.
You will get no argument from me here. What point you are missing is that I didn’t claim that many of the people were trusted for any particular reason, but in fact were more of a gut reaction; it was in fact a strategy to detect scum patterns. My theory was, as I generally had a large amount of trust yesterday, to fill my trust list with largely hogwash, and see how many scum attempted to hide their stench behind that. Obviously, that was a strategic mistake because I had apparently misread several individuals on my mistrust list which was accurate to my suspicions.
It’s little surprise I’m now second on the chopping block behind chrisk; as was mentioned earlier, this game tends to damn those who talk too much and those who talk too little.
Oh, I quite agree. Don’t forget I threw a big ol’ bomb down in the last game. 
On that note, I’m going to throw out a vote for nesta. Until now, nesta has neither voted nor been voted for. So, whadda ya say to that?
I’ve also noticed that there seems to be some mistrust of you (my suggestion that you get killed was mostly based on other people talking about you) yet I’ve now eviewed your posts and didn’t find anything that seemed out of place.
Maybe I’m too trusting but right now I only have one sense of suspicion so I may as well cast the stone and see what happens. For post 275 I throw a stone at brewha. Bad vibes.
Very quick to point out that chrisk is still alive. I think he was misguided but well intentioned with his open detection idea. Starting up the bandwagon to cast suspicion away from the Mafioso me thinks.
Seems like you are sure that CaerieD’s mistake was to only put one name on her trust list. Like you had a discussion about it with the others.
Hey, this is just my take on it. I’m convinced you are scum and we should string YOU up FCOD! But I’m not ready to cast the blue vote yet.
Well, his suggestion of the countdown period is a point in his favor. This: “I first asked for the experience of players to try to find out if people would lie about it. If people would deny knowing what they are doing, and then appear to do some tricky move.” is a point against him. What’s to keep him from pointing to an inexperienced player’s honest error and calling it a ‘tricky move’? He has since admitted it might not be a good idea, so that idea might itself be an honest error (or it might be a ‘tricky move’). I’m reserving judgement for now.
It’s cuz you’ve got DOOM in your name, of course. That’s why I’m suspicious of you, anyway. 
And this explanation just makes me go “WTF?” How does that follow? I just don’t see it. Up to now, I thought that you’d posted some helpful stuff, but this is just gobbledygook. I don’t know if anyone else does this, but I like to keep track of who is suspected and trusted by people who offer useful analysis posts, on the assumption that they’ve applied the same analysis to the people they accuse or defend (see my posts in the original thread to see the notes I made to that effect). Now I know that, at the very least, such statements from you aren’t trustworthy in that respect. There is also the possibility that you’re covering yourself in case one of your “trust list” turns out to be Mafia, so you can claim “I didn’t really trust them, it was just a trap for the Mafia.” Is it because you know that there’s something in the list that isn’t just an honest mis-evaluation of someone?
I don’t think anyone’s said anything about mistrusting me except pimaspinner, but I may have missed something.
I was quick to point it out because I had posted about it during day one. BTW, I wasn’t the first one to point this out. Why aren’t you suspicious of Rysto?
Duh. Everyone else had multiple people to trust. She was the only person (AFAIK) that listed one person on his/her trust list. BTW, I wasn’t the first one to point this out. Why aren’t you suspicious of MonkeyMench?
So basically, you have no good reason to suspect me. I can’t see how your accusations would benefit the Mafia since you’re the only one that thinks I’m scummy, so I’m forced to conclude that you have it out for me simply because you hate flying cows. Or maybe you hate doom. Either way, I forgive you, because I think we’re all a little paranoid right now.
Hey, the doom is just my weekend hobby. Besides, who doesn’t enjoy raining down a little doom on occasion?
–FCOD
Hmm. I don’t want to jump on the “lynch chrisk” bandwagon as yet, partly because I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, partly because chrisk didn’t vote at all in the last round of votes, and I’m having a hard time believing that a self-respecting Mafia member wouldn’t vote for someone.
As I said, I am inherently suspicious of bandwagons, particularly those who end up lynching someone innocent. Those who voted for Enfant Terrible are:
Pleonast (after first voting for Kivvik)
BlasterMaster
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCow (after first voting for Autolycus)
Gadarene
Malacandra (after first voting for Autolycus)
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
Cowgirl
Winston Smith
Obviously, these are not all Mafia – in fact one of them, sadly, has been exonerated by the last night’s events. The two who stand out a mile to me, though, are the two who switched their votes from Autolycus to Enfant Terrible – that is, from one bandwagon to another.
I want to go over the sequence of posts before I vote to lynch anyone, but Malacandra and FlyingCow are at the head of my list at the moment.
Eep. I was vote number three, was I? Well, I explained my reason for voting for **Enfant Terrible ** in my vote post and in the post prior to that. It’s the out of nowhere votes without reasoning that I would (and will) look at. I also have not posted a trust/distrust list because I flat out think it’s a bad idea. I’ve limited myself to individual cases. With that in mind, I have said that I am suspicious of BlasterMaster, and annoyed with Autolycus, but I think that **Rysto ** made an excellent case, which, if the “right” person is lynched (or even killed at night), might be the key that unlocks the game.
Finally, I don’t like that **chrisk ** is trying to get the **Autolycus ** bandwagon rolling again. Don’t like that at all.
My vote will more or less boil down to two things - who do I suspect **CaerieD ** investigated, and who voted for **Enfant Terrible ** without stating a reason?
Hmm, I guess I just wanted to make the Flying Pig joke.
Boy, where is he when you need him.
Ughs, I hads me a hard day’s night yesterday. A killa 12 hour shift thens a night on the town with me’s buds. Its was fun and shit, but on the way home I gots me into a fistfight! Me versus six guys. Got my ass handed to me, sads to say. Too much pasta and nots enough exercise, me mom always says. Oh well, right. I gots my pulse so no big whoopy.
More murders in this town, go fig eh? This fuckin’ town gets worse by the day. Pretty soons it coulds be all mafia, so then what’ll 'ey do, rob and murders each otha? A shitty situation for everyones is what I say.
I hear a lynch mob outside my window last night, fuckin’ woke me up and everythin’ If the town’s gonna start murderins people too, then this damn place reallys has lost it They kepts chantin’ over and over, “kill the mafia,” “kill the mafia” but the poor bum they killed wasn’t even in the god damn mafia. Buncha maroons. Anyways, word in town is that everyone wants to know who is clean and who aint’ Peoples been comin up to me and askin my opinion. I’s tell 'em to screw ‘emself. Shit, I knows too well tha proverb: “the neck thats sticks out gets chopped off” All I’m gonna says is that Blaster Master and Chrisk give me the creepers. You wants an esplanation, youz better be buyin’ a lotta booze. haha
If I can be sure of anything in this game, it is that mafia voted for Enfant.
So based on that logic, I went through the people who voted for him and looked for trends.
Here is the list of people who have voted for Enfant in the order they voted:
Pleonast
Blaster Master
ArizonaTeach
FlyingCowOfDoom
Gadarene
Malacandra
StoryTeller0901
Pimaspinner
cowgirl
WinstonSmith
A few trends are present. ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, FlyingCowOfDoom, Malacandra and Pimaspinner were all sucpicous of Autolycus and then voted for Enfant. They all had basiclly the same reasoning. Though I can’t make anything out of this. Autolycus was fooling around, and it is reasonable that his behavior caused a lot of people to get upset. Of course, some of these people could have been mafia jumping on the bandwagon.
Another trend was to cast suspicion on the crew that wanted to vote for Sturmhauke while making a case to lynch Enfant. Pleonast did not do this in his vote post, but did so here and here . Storyteller0910 does this in his vote post. Winston’s rational prior to the clinching post is here, and it looks like he went after TheMadSwine, who was suspicious of Sturmhauke not getting killed.
The most suspicious out of all the voters is Pleonast. I think he supported chrisk’s idea because he knew it would help the family. I think he saw that Sturmhauke was being targeted and tried to steer the crowd in another direction. He also seem a bit too happy to post trust and distrust lists.
I know cowgirl isn’t mafia. Blaster Master seems to have a good reason to vote for Enfant and he did come out against the trust and mistrust list. What I think happened was that Pleonast did not want to jump on the Autolycus bandwagon just yet, and came up with a good reason to lynch Enfant. Blaster Master might have jumped on it because the reasoning was better than anything else out there. Then the vote was inflated by several mafia members and Enfant was ultimately killed.
I also suspect that the mistrust I started with Queuing was inflated because he was after Sturmhauke at first. That is why I think he ended up on so many mistrust lists.
I vote Pleonast.
On further analysis, I’d like to expand on point 3 of my recent post (post 620). Our strategy is fundamentally flawed at this time. Let’s evaluate my analysis was further, that cowgirl was killed by the mafia and CaerieD was killed by the VIG/SK. From my observation, cowgirl was relatively inactive in posting yesterday and, as far as I can tell, managed to stay under EVERYONE’s radar, neither on anyone’s trust or distrust list. In retrospect, it’s clearly more of an artifact of the speed at which the thread is moving; however, this is precisely the sort of tell I’d expect mafia to pick up on for a power roll: doctor trying to lay low, detective trying to gather some information before outing herself, or vig trying to slowly pick people off. Meanwhile, CaerieD made several posts, a few of which, at least to me, looked suspsicious, like supporting the “pretend to be a cop” idea (obviously, in hindsight, she agreed because she WAS a cop), and also voted to lynch Sturmhauke originally, which, as many had pointed out, looked like a mafia bandwagon.
What’s the point of all this? Worst case, which seems to be the likely one, the VIG killed our detective, and even in best case, he still killed a townie. I made a suggestion at least twice yesterday that we should not only be voting on a lynch, but we should also be discussing the nighttime target of the VIG. The VIG is stuck between a rock and a hard place because, maybe he should off the #2 vote getter, but what if he REALLY doesn’t think he’s mafia or SK or actually is, in fact, the #2 vote getting? Essentially, the VIG was shooting in the dark last night, and that cost us. Now that we don’t have a detective, and we’re several townies down, we REALLY need to start trying to take better advantage of the VIG role, because he and the doctor are the only two roles now that can help catch up. If we play our cards right and get a good lynching AND a good night target for the VIG, we can potentially make up for a bad lynching and the bad night we had.
Also, as part of my scanning to make my point above, I came across two interesting posts of CaerieD’s which leads me to believe that the general sentiment of what her breadcrumb is is incorrect. One post which has been pointed out isthat she trusted Menacchio #326 , but in the same post she also mentioned she distrusted Autolycus (and Enfant Terrible ** as well, but that was obviously not the breadcrumb). Even more interesting, soon after day one started in post #261, she states that she doesn’t trust Autolycus. That’s even before we started the whole trust/mistrust list. So my question to you all is, was her breadcrumb that Menacchio is town-friendly or that Autolycus ** is scum? Based on the post order, I’m more inclined to believe the latter, or am I missing something?
Distrusting Autolylcus was just the flavor of the day. It is more likely that she investigated a civilian and not a mafioso.
I had an idea earlier but forgot about it. Thankfully I remembered. The person we lynch during the day has a chance to convince us of their towniness. The person the VG kills at night has no such chance. Therefore if we have a person we think is really scummy (maybe **Autolychus **seeing Blaster’s post) we can leave that to our VG and focus our efforts to figure other people out through the lynching process during the day.
I’d like to ask our VG to kill **Autolychus **tonight and suggest that the SK might want to off Pleonast.
That’s a wicked scummy things to say. What, you’z too chicken to off me ya’self? You got some guts, askin’ somebody to do you’z dirty works. I dont knows nothin’ ‘bout that Pleonast bum, but if ya gonna targets me, at least spell my fuckin’ name right, ok?