True, the odds are probably about 3 to 1 that, at random, she would have chosen a town friendly person, but it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility, and the fact that I found two posts about **Autolycus ** and only one about Menocchio is what got me thinking. If we ignore the possibility, we could end up in this scenario: she actually investigated Autolycus and thus he is in fact scum, but we misinterpret her crumbs, and incorrectly label Menocchio as confirmed town-friendly when he’s really mafia as well; that’s a HUGE advantage to the mafia because then he can start slipping in all kinds of bad advice for the lynchings.
Now, regardless of who she investigated, I’m still inclined to believe Menocchio is more likely town-friendly, but I am more warning that he is by no means confirmed. I want many of the other folk to look and if a lot of people think I’m off my rocker, then I’ll drop the idea.
Now that you mention it, I’m starting to get concerned about the SK for two reasons: one, the town isn’t doing well at this point, so he may decide to start helping the mafia tonight, and second, if he lives at the end, he wins and everyone else loses. OTOH, because of the unpredictability of who he’s targetting AND that as long as he’s alive, the VIG can do an extra pro-town kill at night, he’s still probably more of a threat to the mafia at this point than the town.
That said, it actually looks like the mafia would benefit to try to track him down because it eliminates the chance for what could be a huge swing in our favor in a single night, and, if the VIG gets him, he becomes a confirmed townie. For us, I think he’s still beneficial precisely because I expect the mafia might be gunning for him as well and he keeps the VIG active, so we probably want to leave him alive, if possible, until about mid-game.
Basically, my point is, while we can probably rely on the VIG doing what’s in the best interest of the town; the SK is pretty much a crap shoot at this point unless we can manage both a good lynching AND a good VIG kill tonight.
I was untrusted because Pleonast has something against palindromes, such as my name. Can’t speak for Zuma. I was removed from the list when people starting posting and we had stuff to go off of other than random prejudices against perfectly fine letter patterns.
I agree that voting should be held for many hours, as we try to cope with the loss of our Detective and fellow Citizen, and to generate stuff to analyze. As such, I shan’t jump on chrisk until I can read more to comfirm a true feeling on him/her.
Despite his ‘unique’ manner of speech-text, I have my own views on Autolycus that do not involve a FoS. He pings me as pro-town at the moment, although that all depends on whether I’m reading his posts right, or if all he has posted, other than votes and such, is just roleplaying and nothing more.
Going off of Rysto’s post, #589, he goes on about the various ‘detection’ systems that were spoke of. chrisk is under fire for posting a variant of StarvingButStrong’s idea from the WW commentary thread. Pleonast is catching some flak for the trust/mistrust system. And StarvingButStrong was trying to work some sort of psychological angle with his/her ‘post your sex’ idea.
That’s a lot of people fishing for information. Pleonast had chrisk on his trusted side many times, although it was not reciprocated. StarvingButStrong did not affiliate with either on their list. If I had more analyzing skill, I’m sure that I could make something out of that. For now, just throwing that out there.
Frankly, I don’t see this at all, Blaster Master. Autolycus was indeed, the flavor of the day and came out of the gate acting suspicious. The post order was simply that Menocchio had not posted AT ALL IN THE GAME when she voiced her initial suspicions of Autolycus. Once Menocchio came out and made his first post of the game’s “day”, CaerieD’s next post was her “trust: menocchio” post. She’s not going to come out as soon as the day starts and announce her trust of Menocchio when he hadn’t even posted to the game yet!
Your theory falls apart even more in that if she was going to breadcrumb Autolycus, she would not have listed him as secondary in her mistrust to Enfant Terrible. Menocchio was clearly her breadcrumbing.
You’re right, I’d missed that aspect… when I was scanning through the first time, I could have sworn I’d seen his name; a perusal proved otherwise. With that said, my theory probably is hogwash.
Hey, this is no back room thing. I’m just asking him right out in the open “Would you mind killing this guy for me?” But since I added an extra H to your name I’ll ask him to make it as painless as possible. I’m sure a tough guy like you understands … eggs … omelet, right?
Blaster Master, I don’t think NAF1138 (red to draw his attention) has completely answered our questions on when the SK wins. If the mafia kill everyone but him does he win? Isn’t he technically town so don’t they have to kill him too? That seems like a real crap shoot on his part. At one point it will be 2 townies left and 50/50 he’ll get killed. And that’s after avoiding all these flying knives.
Conversely is it the end when the town kills the last mafioso and he’s still alive? Or do we then have to find and kill him for us to win?
We’re certainly down but not out yet. I’m thinking of volunteering to mod the next round, Mods permitting, so I’ve been playing around with numbers. This is what things look like now if I guess 10 scum
Total Town Scum
32 22 10 Day 2
31 21.31 9.69 Night 3
28 18.94 9.06 Day 3
27 18.26 8.74 Night 4
24 15.91 8.09 Day 4
23 15.25 7.75 Night 5
20 12.92 7.08 Day 5
19 12.27 6.73 Night 6
16 9.98 6.02 Day 6
15 9.36 5.64 Night 7
12 7.11 4.89 Day 7
11 6.52 4.48 Night 8
8 4.33 3.67 Day 8
7 3.79 3.21 Night 9
4 1.71 2.29 Day 9
It looks like they’ll take the lead on Day 9. Of course we don’t have fractions of people and we’ll probably lose the VG and SK along the way. Now if we guess that happens, that on the night of the 6th the SK dies and the VG becomes mere town then things slow down and we lose majority on the 10th day but with a lot more people in town.
We have to take out 9 scum. We can lose 20 townies in the process and still have a 50/50 chance at victory. So as long as 1 out of every 3 kills is a mafioso we can still win. But one of those three will certainly be town which means us lynchers, the VG and SK have to kill mafioso 1 out of every 2 kills. And the SK isn’t necessarily helping us. Hmm, grim.
Pleonast got a mention from not me not because of his idea about the trust lists but who he had in his trust lists. Not particularly strong but we’ve got some damn good liars in this game and I’ve just got this thin strand of disrtust.
Autolycus continues to strike me as conspicuously there. Perhaps he’s the mobster so stereotypical that he keeps attention and discusion on himself while allowing the other mobsters to hide because of the distraction. I still think it would be a good idea for our VG to off him when the sun sets.
Is his fight he’s talking about his fellow mafia handing his ass to him on the mafia boards? Maybe they’re even more fed up with him than we are. I’m inclined to let him run his mouth for a while.
Been rereading more, think I agree with those who say that there was something mafi-ish about Enfant’s lynching. Because of that, and because someone’s FOS seems to be a little bit itchy, I am changing my vote.
Vote Gadarene
Still far from sure, but I’ve been convinced to swing my distrust away from Autolycus for a while at least, and he seemed like the next obvious candidate.
Blaster Master, I’m not buying what you’re selling. You say that the Mafia went after cowgirl. I realize it’s dangerous to believe we can duplicate the Mafia’s thinking, but in the face of what looks very much like a concerted effort on the part of the Mafia to flush out Cops using these trust lists(an effort, I might add, that you were right in the middle of), I just can’t believe that it was the Mafia who killed cowgirl. You know what I think? I think that you’re desperately grasping at straws, trying to come a theory, any theory, that just might pull your ass out of the fire – or, failing that, muddy the waters enough to buy you and the rest of your Mafia buddies some time. My vote for chrisk stands, but you’re right on my list after him. Or, and MadTheSwine? You’re in the hole. Pleonast, you’re batting clean-up.
Wait, what? Well, this clinches it for me. After I mention my suspicions about you trying to get the **Autolycus ** bandwagon going again, you vote for Gadarene? Because of “finger of suspicion”? You’re gonna have to show me that, because looking at the posts, I don’t see it. What I do see is that **Fern Forest ** voted, then unvoted Gadarene, which I don’t believe is very telling, but more importantly that **Rysto ** pointed **Gadarene ** out as possible scum in post #589, along with other people I’ve suspected were mafia. Was your vote meant to put us off the scent? Is **Gadarene ** scum, too? Looking at **Pleonast’s ** trust and untrust, I notice you, BlasterMaster, and **Gadarene ** come up a lot. Are we getting a quorum here? No, this out of nowhere vote change to an out of nowhere vote seals the deal for me.
It seems like I can’t win with you. I don’t have any firm idea of who’s mafia, and I admit that I wanted to switch away from Autolycus partly because of what you said. (I hadn’t meant to ‘get a bandwagon going again’ - I had still not read some of the swaths of debate from day 1 when I voted for him, and didn’t realize how close he’d gotten to getting voted out, before the winds shifted. Somehow, the fact that other people had been suspicious, and then decided to give him another chance, gave me more patience as well.)
Blame me for being a weathervane, and I’ll cop to it. But is that really a scum tell? (Well, maybe, but us citizens can be indecisive and swayable too.) Of course, I can’t tell you what to think, and protesting too much is just going to seem more suspicious.
sighs
If you want me to post some examples of what I thought was slightly suspicious about Gaddy, I’ll search through and quote. I admit straight off that there isn’t much though.
Well, I was the first to vote for Autolycus, if that means anything. So I only joined one bandwagon…the other I inadvertently started.
Please do. I’m not sure how anyone could read anything suspicious from my posts…but then, I guess if you try hard enough, you can find something suspicious in anyone’s posts. Especially when you’re on the chopping block yourself.
ArizonaTeach:
Well, to the extent you think that I have any existing relationship with Blaster Master, Pleonast, or chrisk (who I didn’t put on my trust list), that’s incorrect…and to demonstrate it, I won’t vote for anybody any of them votes for until further notice. For the reasons first elucidated by Rysto last page, I’m also becoming suspicious of Blaster Master. I’d trusted him or her initially because he (or she) was one of the people going out of his or her way to be helpful and analytic.
Here’s what I don’t understand: it’s not to anyone’s benefit—particularly any townsperson—to intentionally act suspicious, right? It can’t possibly help them. So what the hell gives with Autolycus and chrisk? Do they just not care?
I’m not sure if we should directly tell the vig who to kill. They’ll out themselves if they fail to kill themselves, and besides should be free to follow their own judgement. The best case sceneario is that they kill the SK ASAP, which loses us a loose cannon and gains us a confirmed townie.
What this does mean is that folks singled out as probable scum should defend themselves even if they aren’t leading the polls. Don’t go to bed with a cloud of suspicion hanging over you.
The SK is scum, and should be lynched as such. I’m still not clear if the SK wins if they’re standing come a mafia or town victory, or only if they’re the last man standing, but in either case, they aren’t on our team.
The thing is, Menocchio, this game is weird in that if we lose the SK, we lose the vig. We are so far behind right now that I almost want to leave the SK alive. With the vig, we get 2 town kills per day, with the SK a loose cannon.
SK alive we get 2 town kills, one loose cannon kill, and one mafia kill.
SK dead we’re 1 town kill, 1 mafia kill. And I think the vig kill is actually more valuable to us as the lynch has mafia input, while the vig is acting purely pro-town.
And yes, we need to kill the SK eventually, but right now I think we need the vig to target suspected mafia. I’m not sure how we’re going to flush out the SK, but at least for today, I think the vig should target the #2 suspected mafia at their discretion.
I’m not intentionally acting suspicious! Maybe I really can’t help it, I… I…
I guess I’ve been taking this stuff way too seriously ever since something went a way I didn’t expect it to. This is just a game, and it really isn’t healthy for me to be getting so spun over it…
I’m really, really, really tempted to drop out of the game, not show my username for months in MPSIMS or IMHO for months, maybe the whole board, because I feel really foolish over how badly things have gone - but what could someone else EVER manage to do stepping into my shoes at this point? I mean, REALLY??
And this is yet another reason why ending the day early on day one was so disastrous. The vig had nothing to go on. With the cop gone, we need to manage our time wisely. It’s probably our biggest weapon at this point. We should have been nearing the end of day one with 3 dead and a lot more information. Now we have 6 dead.
You’re safe for a few days, chrisk. Dropping out of the game if you’re town just hurts us. I’d spend your time giving a complete and total defense of your “pretend to be the cop” strategy after initially poo-pooing it in that other thread. Frankly, I could be convinced you screwed up. I plan on voting for you at this point, but give us something to work with.
We can’t control the Vig, the Vig just ends up firing blindly if they don’t have a good target (and they rarely will), and the SK isn’t on our side. We need them both stopped. When that happens, we go from losing three a night to only one.
For the reasons first elucidated by Rysto last page, I’m also becoming suspicious of Blaster Master. I’d trusted him or her initially because he (or she) was one of the people going out of his or her way to be helpful and analytic.