Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
681

What I give you is what you get. There were only 2 kills because either the miller blocked someone, the doctor saved someone, the angel saved someone, the sk or mafia chose to not kill, or two people targeted the same person. You wouldn’t really want me to spoon feed you everything would you?

As far as the whole SK questions go…the end conditions for the game are that the game ends when the Mafia is all defeated or when the town cannot win. Some games have it go until there is no one left but the SK, but I think that makes it way too hard for the SK to have a shot a winning. So if the SK is alive when the end conditions are met, the SK wins.

WHO WANTS A VOTE COUNT?

(1) Autolycus (Chrisk)
(1) Blaster Master (Queuing)
(1) brewha (Fern Forest)
(5) chrisk (Rysto, FCoD, Kat, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Pleonast (Lakai)

682

Hey! No fair! How come chrisk gets two votes?

683

Good point, I didn’t see that. Chisk, did you unvote and I missed it? Give me a few minutes and I will go back and figure out what I missed.

Also the first line of my last post should read, what I gave you is what you get. Which is to say, its the same as all the others. I tell you who’s dead and you get a little color. Thats it.

684

I think it might make sense for the Serial Killer not to kill every night, actually, since one of his or her goals is to fly under the radar for as long as possible. Killing someone usually furthers the SK’s other goal, to hasten the ending of the game, but not always, so I can see why the SK might not want to take a shot in the dark at this stage of the game.

On the other hand, it seems to me that it also makes sense for the Miller to automatically block the SK or Vigilante until we know more, since they’re all taking shots in the dark, and a random death is more likely to be a townie.

685

Sorry, chrisk did unvote, I just missed it.
New vote count:
(1) Blaster Master (Queuing)
(1) brewha (Fern Forest)
(5) chrisk (Rysto, FCoD, Kat, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach)
(1) Gadarene (chrisk)
(1) nesta (Sturmhauke)
(1) Pleonast (Lakai)

686

I’m inclined to agree with Queuing that CaerieD’s mistrust of Blaster Master was a breadcrumb.

Accordingly, I vote Blaster Master.

687

Fair enough however you have had time now. How about posting something useful?

In fact we have a few people who have contributed little. Brewha is another one I can think of. We need EVERYONE to post whatever idea they have, not mistrust/trust list, whatever you have, feedback people. Cowgirl may have been killed because she didn’t post and was a suspected power role, we can’t lose another.

As to the votes, I think we leave Chrisk alone…for now. There seems to be some doubt as to his role.

Master Blaster and Pleonast on the other hand there seems to be little doubt, or at least little expressed doubt by anyone but themselves.

Anyway, thats my last post for the day. I am off now, I may be able to post tomorrow (and read another 3 pages, sigh)

688

I think one of the pro-town power roles saved someone.Again, I can’t imagine a good reason for one of the scum not to kill,nor can I imagine two of them targeting the same person,considering the kills.

689

I don’t think it works that way. I assume the Miller(s) block people (e.g. they say “I want to block Fretful Porpentine.” not “I want to black the Vigilante.”)

Oh, and I’ll go ahead and unvote chrisk. Haven’t decided on my new vote yet. Don’t lynch anyone until I come back?

690

I’m wondering if the Doc protected Autolycus. I expect the SK or the Vig to do him last night, and I can’t have been the only person to have expected that. Perhaps the Doc trusted him enough to protect him, as he seemed the most likely to be killed by somebody.

It’s also possible that the SK or Vig took Blaster Master’s advice and went after CaerieD, while the Mafia also tried to kill her.

691

The Millers have to give a name, not a role.They could just block Mafia everynight otherwise.

692

Ah, got it. I thought they blocked roles (but could not block the Mafia, unless they were down to one Mafia member, because it had to be an individual rather than a group). I’m still working out the finer points of the rules here…

693

Huh? Are you disputing the fact that Menocchio was her investigation?

694

Oh my, where do I begin?

  1. Queuing voted for Blaster Master based on his comments regarding who each role should kill that night, specifically the SK. That made me suspicious as well. In fact I wonder if Blaster Master himself might be the SK? CaerieD was forthcoming about her mistrust of him, he suggested that she be killed that night, and then bam no more detective. Also, he was very informative on day 1, mimicking JSexton in the first game, who was town. Could he perhaps be employing the same strategy in hopes of throwing us off his scent?

  2. As far as which breadcrumb to follow from our dearly departed detective, I will follow her trust of Mennochio. She investigated someone that night and, again following the same logic, it seems reasonable to investigate the alpha from the last game as there may be some residual vibes from that game that may flow into the judgment of this game. (I realize I’m using the other game for reference points, but many others have as well. Besides we are human and even in other threads, when I see certain posters I think "Werewolf! Lynch! :slight_smile: YMMV)

  3. Something I wanted to say on day 1 but missed the deadline: Many have stated that it is remarkable that sturmhawke is still breathing because of his tactics in the previous thread. This is not an attack in any way, but could those of yo that subscribe to this theory explain it? He was a good player, but I thought it was obvious he was the seer way before his roleclaim. Again, no offense intended, I’m just curious.

  4. In post #437, Queuing is fiercely defending chrisk, and saying that he should give us his “investigations” daily so we have something to work with. I took chrisk’s hypothetical claim, as just that: hypothetical. He may or may not be a cop, but I took it to mean that everyone should do this to confuse mafia and leave breadcrumbs for when death ensues. However, if he is not a cop and continues to post “facts” it will hurt the townies that may believe him, if he posts inaccurately.

  5. As far as trust lists go, I think in theory they are a good idea, but may be hard to use practically in game play. In essence, it gives us something to work with only after someone has been positively identified. Until then they really give us little to work without any proof.

  6. This is specifically for Malacandra: Why are you so suspicious of me? You pointed it out in 2 seperate posts, but without anything to back it up. Could you please tell me why you FOS is pointed my way so that I may address any issues?

695

This is crazy. Blaster Master has his own issues, but our cop breadcrumbed Menocchio.

696

Vote : Queuing

697

OK. I was going to post and then catch up but catching up seemed pretty tolerable.

With respect to the night deaths I’d say there was either a Doc-Blok[sup]TM[/sup], an overlapping of targets, or the SK held fire. Here’s the mathiness: If here there be Millers (and I now think there are, given that NAF keeps talking about them) their chances of blocking the Mafia hit, if they both tried to at this point in the game, are about 6%. That’s ballpark 30% (choosing Mafia correctly) times 10% (having the block work) times both Millers giving it a shot. I know that the probabilities aren’t strictly additive but with low probs it’s a good approximation. Factor in that the Millers received advice to perhaps hold their blocking for the moment and that 6% shrinks even more.

I think, if I’ve done the math correctly, there is currently a 9% chance of an overlap in targets. That’s not too likely but significant.

As for the Doc-Blok it’s about as likely. Assuming there were 3 separate targets submitted then it’s about 9% (3/32) that the Doc successfully protected someone. Again, not too likely but significant.

As for the SK I can’t see their survival in a Mafia-rich endgame, and on preview NAF’s post makes it sound like this is the case, and so without a decent scum-tell to go on simply held fire for the time being. This could be wishful thinking but we might get a lower body count for a night or two. This event (holding fire) can’t be assigned a probability since it only is dependent on the SK’s strategy but I think it’s likely if the SK doesn’t want to end up surrounded by Mafiosi at games end. After all the SK shows up on the citizen list that the Mafia has.

As for lists of trust/distrust I’m going personnally with just lists of distrusts. If my guesses are accurate then then I’m a target. But at the same time my getting whacked just validates my list. On the other hand if my guesses are inaccurate the Mafia might want to let me blather on, but might want to whack me to give the appearance of accurate guesses being muffled. The upshot is that good suspect lists put the Mafia in a bit of a quandary and isn’t, therefore terribly dangerous. It’s what I’m going to do at any rate.

The side benefit is that looking at the lists in toto can give a sort of Venn diagram of consensus and help filter out the Mafia induced noise.

So I’m FOSing in order chrisk, brewha (on his weak accusation of myself that Malacandra picked up on as well), and aguecheek for #393 where he accuses sturmhauke on nothing more than last game performance.

Finally, a question for NAF: is there going to be any indication given when the last Mafioso is killed, in case the SK is still alive?

698

This is complete hogwash. She mistrusted me for reasons other than her investigation, namely that she thought I was “too gung-ho”; I think we’ve come to a concensus that Menocchio was her investigation.

699

I stand by my vote.

700

Yes, when the last mafia is killed, the game will end. If you haven’t gotten the SK by then, the SK wins.