Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1061

Whew. Lots to digest. Fortunately, there’s some fairly transparent people in this town. Here’s my list, starting from the scum to the town:

Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

Pleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

Gadarene: Potentially scum.I don’t like the attack on StarvingBut Strong in post 456. Unforced vanilla claim. OTOH, I agree with several of your targets, and post 822 is fairly townie.

Brewha: leaning scum. I don’t like his unforced claim in post 719. Bit too defensive.

Winston Smith: Ugh. I want to call you scummy, but I also know that you’re, er, unconventional when it comes to this game. I don’t know what to think of you yet.

ArizonaTeach, Flying Cow, Fretful, hocow, malacandra, pimaspinner, pygmy runner, smitty, starvingbutstrong, Suburban Plankton: Neutral on all of you. Nothing you’ve posted makes me put you in either category yet, although there are certain links to other people for some of you. We’ll know more after more confirmed roles.

**Fern Forest, Kat, Kivvik, Lakai, MadTheSwine, nesta, MonkeyMensch, **: Leaning town for minor reasons.

sturmhawke: Leans town for minor reasons, and I greatly dislike the bandwagon on him. He may well be getting set up.

Autolycus: Here’s a controversial one. I firmly believe Auto is town.

Rysto: Seems quite town, based on analysis.

zuma/ Strongly believe zuma to be town. Her (?) analysis is very strong, and displays some very subtle townie tells. If she’s scum, my hat’s off.

Menocchio: I believe he’s confirmed by CaerieD. Potentially the Godfather, of course.

I think that covers everyone.

I don’t want the day over just yet, but my vote will be on Blaster. I’d like a claim out of him. I’d also be fine with lynching any of the top five people up there, but I think Blaster is the most pressing.

1062

Ok, let me see if I cant get my first accurate vote count of the day up.

7- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- FCoD - (storyteller0910)
1- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMensch)

1063

[QUOTE=JSextonPleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.[/QUOTE]
Thanks, for the analysis, JSexton, even if you’re wrong on a few points. :smiley:

What do you find telling about my posts ([post=8408687]391[/post] and [post=8407721]461[/post])? I’m stating who I trust and don’t, and giving reasons. Do you not like lists? Or, do you disagree with my choices?

And when have I bandwagonned? I was the first to vote for Enfant Terrible. And although I wasn’t the first (maybe fourth?) to vote for Queuing, he was on my mistrust from the previous day (and I came out early against him too). And you seem to think he’s scum, so it’s not like you think it’s a poor choice.

Furthermore, I helped stop the bandwagon against sturmehauke, even though I don’t trust him. And you agree that he shouldn’t have been bandwagonned.

Other than disagreeing about Blaster Master, we seem to mostly agree. And notice I’m not going to vote for him, when a bandwagon could easily converge on him.

You’re even on my trust list, because of how chrisk played yesterday. Color me perplexed.

1064

Here is what I think of Queuing. I think he is just new to the game and is trying out different strategies. He first asked people to reveal their experience, then he thought chrisk’s cop claim was serious and then he took someone’s (I think pimaspinner) night drinking posts as evidence of some alliance.

Also, on Day 1 no one defended him. I did not trust him, but no one knew anything then. If he were mafia, I would think that at least someone would have stood up for him. His analysis in post 581 is suspicious, but CaerieD did not make many substantial posts, so he could have created it in 30 minutes.

I understand what Gadarene is trying to say about a network. Let me try to illustrate it a little better.

People who voted for Sturmhauke:

Queuing
Menocchio
Fern Forest
Aguecheek
CaerieD

Menocchio switched his vote. CaerieD died and Fern Forest’s vote was not too serious.

Now lets see who got suspicious of Queuing right after he voted for Stumhauke in post 304:

Blaster Master puts Queuing on his mistrust list. (309)
Pleonast does the same (322)
Blaster Master asked the Vig to kill Queuing (322)
Zuma votes for Queuing (407)
Fretful votes for Queuing (421)
FlyingCowOfDoom distrusted Queuing (438)
Storyteller distrusted Queuing

On Day 2, Queuing starts things off by voting for Blaster Master.

FlyingCowOfDoom then voices his distrust of Queuing again.
Blaster Master, of course, does the same thing.
**Pleonast **votes for Queuing.
Zuma and Nesta both don’t like Queuing’s analysis of CaerieD’s breadcrumb.
MonkeyMesch becomes suspicious.
Mennicho and Starving cast votes for Queuing, but don’t seem too confident.

Here is what happens to Augecheek after he votes for Strumhauke (393)

Strumhauke throws a vote back at him.
Blaster Master defends Strumhauke from Augecheek (404)
Fern Forest voices distrust
**Storyteller **voices distrust (438)
Pleonast voices distrust (461)

On Day 2 Aguecheek has not made any votes yet:
**
FlyCowOfDoom** voices distrust
MonkeyMesch votes for him (1025)
Pleonast voices his distrust

Queuing and Aguecheek both voted for Strumhauke and were both targeted by the same group of posters: **FCD, MonkeyMesch, Pleonast, Blaster Master and Storyteller.
**
Now of those six, Pleonast, Blaster Master, FCD, and Storyteller voted for Enfant Terrible.

Out of that group, Pleonast and Blaster Master supported the trust and distrust system that lead to CaerieD’s death.

I know that I don’t have the post numbers for all my evidence, but if someone disagrees, then I’ll look for the post number.

Now I really want someone to hang really soon, and I would be happy to see either Pleonast or Blaster Master take the drop.

1065

I wants’ to go to sleep, so let’s end this night, capiche? I 'aint hoppin on no bandwagon, cuz I’s would probably break it. haha.

Some’body’s said Blaster Master the SK? Hmmm… that’s seems fishy to me. I ‘aint sayin’s nothin’ til I thinks about’s it more, ok. Sadly thinkin’ aints my fort.

1066

Whuh oh! I’ve been FOS’d!

May I respond? Actually, at this stage, I’d think the better question would be…should I respond?

There’s a reason you don’t see me in GD. Logical analysis isn’t my bag; I much prefer basing decisions on solid facts. sturmhauke’d been FOS’d by several people by the time I came along, with the same reasoning – he’d played before, he was good, he wasn’t killed by the mafia. Good enough for me to base a vote on him. Better, IMO, than random.org. Being new, and as a person, however, I felt a desire to explain myself. And apparently, did a rather poor job of it.

Like I said, there’s a reason I don’t post in GD. I voted for the same reasons as Queing, FernForest and CaerieD, no more, no less. I wanted to put some muscle behind it, is all.

As for Autolycus, you’d hardly call me the only one to point a finger at him.

Why haven’t I pointed the finger elsewhere? Because since Friday, I’ve had a total of about 3 hours to follow this thing, and I’m having a hard bloody time following the ins and outs and dictionary definitions of “hogwash.” I’ve been following this in dribs and drabs since this morning and have been thinking about my vote for the past 7 hours.

And here’s what I’ve come up with:

I agree that CaerieD’s breadcrumb was Mennochio. Any other interpretation is just too obtuse. Therefore, any other trust/distrust by the detective was supposition. Further, this is the closest to a fact that we’ve got. So I’ve got nothing else.

So I’ll go with my gut because I like the arguments for rather than against. Vote BlasterMaster.

1067

Lakai:

Yup. Nice analysis.

1068

Oh, I forgot something.

grabs torch and starts handing out pitchforks

Guys, lets bring Day 2 to an end. Blaster Master had his chance to talk and he will have 12 hours more after the final vote.

Unvote Pleonast. Vote Blaster Master.

That should make nine votes. Who wants to pull the trigger?

1069

Because I have the time, and would rather put this up before I leave work for the day then try to figure out where I left off once I get home.
9- Blaster Master - (Queuing, hocow, pimaspinner, Pygmy Rugger, ArizonaTeach, Gadarene, Winston Smith, Augecheek, Laki)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Lakai, Suburban Plankton)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
4- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast)
3- Gadarene -(Smitty,Blaster Master, nesta)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- FCoD - (storyteller0910)
1- Aguecheek - (MonkeyMensch)
Blaster Master is WAY ahead with 9 votes. 1 more to start the 12 hour clock. And a reminder since that 10th vote may hit while I am asleep: THE CLOCK STARTS FROM THE TIME THE 10TH VOTE IS POSTED, not from when I announce it. You want to know when the day will end, look at the timestamp on the 10th vote and add 12 hours (that is if no one unvotes)

1070

NAF1138, for future reference, what time is it where you are located?

1071

It’s 4:44pm on my computer clock

1072

To make it easier for you to see:

NAF1138 when does the day end if no one gets to 10?

1073

Wednesday at Noon PST.

1074

At some point, would it be fruitful to start a second thread?

1075

Possibly, let me as TPTB if they thing that would be a good or a bad thing.

1076

I think “tomorrow” morning would be a god time, myself.

1077

Ah, good, you have had time to analyze and post. Something I think we were all waiting for.

My “fishing for experienced players” was actually just an idea to see if someone would say “I have never played this game before” and then start to be really sophisticated or something. I have received a lot of flack for this idea even though in the same post I also said “Or not”, as in I don’t know if this is a good idea, but its the first day, I am throwing out ideas. I have said this before, its the truth, but I won’t bother saying it again. I really have no proof, just my word so you know, its up to all of you to decide what that is worth.

I didn’t have time to do the analysis because of timestamps? Wow, crazy. I had been reading this thread from the beginning you know, taking notes, cutting and pasting peoples trust/mistrust list. It was quite easy to see who CaerieD had trusted and not trusted. As it was easy to see who she had voted for. Therefore I knew the potential crumbs she had left, I had them in a word doc. All I did was start on whatever page it was that it had been announced she had been killed, copy her name., ctrl-F, cut and paste what she had said. She has 18 posts in this thread. One was a goodbye, another (at least 1) was an “Oh, I am playing” post, so that leaves 16 at MOST. And I couldn’t do that in 30 minutes. Well isn’t the funny, because you know I did.

Again the Chrisk Cop thing has come up. This I find really funny because Blaster Master and I were actually on the same side here. As I have said a few times before no I didn’t really think Chrisk was a cop. However, when we have 34 people to choose from (maybe 37, whatever around that number), and someone makes a role claim, however silly it may be, what do we have to lose by believing them at that time? Not forever, not as confirmed, but as on ok, why not you crazy bastard? Claim. We will believe you…for now. Just keep the info coming. It stops so do you. Its wrong, your dead. And guess what? His silly claim actually was TRUE! So what did we have to lose by saying ok, give us another one. Tell us what you found out, and keep telling us. Once we have a big enough sample size (if you go back to my posts I said day 3 we should test him) we test the sample size.

As the “obvious” crumb…well we all know how I feel about that. I don’t know where this information of me not believing Menocchio as Town came from. I just choose to believe all of the detective’s information until someone PROVES, not THINKS, one piece is wrong. If someone can come and show my how this is a hurtful, illogical thing to do, then please come do. In fact I have been saying this for a while now, and NONE of you have been able to say it is. All you say is “its obvious that its Menecchio”. I wish I had your abilities to KNOW what others think.

1078

Here’s some food for thought:
Almost all of the people who are voting for Blaster Master, I have a feeling to be town. If Blaster Master were town, I think the Mafia would have filled up the vote tally by now and started the countdown. Instead, suspicion was cast on **Pygmy ** Rugger. Three out of his four votes are from people I feel are scum. **Blaster’s ** “family” is trying to save him. If I turn out to be wrong about Blaster, I am going to have to rethink EVERYTHING I’m thinking about EVERYONE. Also of the four people who have single votes against them, look closely at who cast them. I think at least 2 are scum waiting to see which way the wind will blow before switching. (As well as a couple of people who haven’t voted yet).

1079

Okay, looks like you all want to put me on the chopping block. So, I suppose I’ll start my defense… give me some time to get it composed.

1080

I believe only Rysto hasn’t voted yet.