Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[brewha]

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work. We just have to convince the miller to block the SK. If Blaster Master does his job and there is one other kill,that means that the mafia and the Vig suceeded.

Of course, this would require the real Vig (assuming it’s not Blaster Master) to kill someone other than who we decided on. If the town and Vig are on the same side, this should work.

[Winston_Smith]

@Blaster Master

I’ll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don’t have any choice but to role claim now.

**Point 1: ** If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier… she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn’t agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

**Point 2: ** If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn’t you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

**Point 3: ** How can you prove you’re the vigilante? Simple, don’t lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I’m not mafia.

Point 4: How can we be sure you’re not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it’s up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I’ve made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

Point 5: Let’s say we believe you are the vigilante, what happens tonight?

This is a complicated one, so let me play out the options as I see them:

As I stated earlier, I am more than willing to kill whichever between **Gadarene ** and **Queuing ** is not lynched today; and if neither is lynched, I’ll kill Gadarene. Since I’m not mafia, I believe if either of them (and certainly the one I kill tonight) will prove conclusively that I’m going pro-town.

Will the SK kill me? I can’t imagine he will, because IMO his best option is to help the town AND have a shorter game; both of which I will help with. On top of that, I’ve made it clear I have no intention of hunting him down at this time. Further, if he gets revealed or put on the chopping block, he can always attempt to use me as a scape goat to try to prevent from getting lynched for at least another day.

Will the mafia kill me? Probably. However, they may not attack me if the one I’ll target tonight is actually not mafia, in which case they will let me live to get lynched quickly tomorrow OR if they think the doctor or one of the GAs will protect me tonight.
Bottom line, you can lynch me now, and find out the hard way that the bandwagon on me was by the mafia OR you can let me live, get at least one more kill in tonight, and either let the mafia do your dirty work or lynch me tomorrow if by some miracle a miller blocks me, or the doctor sillily decides to protect **Gadarene ** or Queuing.

If you do decide to lynch me, or let me live and I die tonight, here’s the ones at whom I’d point the FoS in order of my certainty they’re mafia and/or SK:

Gadarene
Queuing
Winston Smith
Aguecheek
Brewha
ArizonaTeach
Pleonast
hocow
Pygmy Rugger

To you all, especially the top four or five. If I’m lynched, I can almost guarantee most of you will follow.

You’re the Vigilante,eh? We’ll be sure to mention that at your funeral.

[Rysto]

@brewha

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work. We just have to convince the miller to block the SK.

Millers block people, not roles. So unless the Miller knows who the SK is(if so, please speak up), this doesn’t help.

[Queuing]

@brewha

Just had another thought. If we can decide on a victim for Blaster Master tonight, this should work.

The miller blocks Players, not roles. So whom do you suggest is the SK and should be role blocked?

[glee]

@Rysto

I’ve had a second idea, but I’m not as sure about this one. I’m just going to throw this one out for discussion; I’m not endorsing the idea yet but I’d like everybody’s thoughts. Don’t lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc’s protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master’s claim – he can’t get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he’ll lose.

Some issues:

• is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
• guaranteeing the Doc’s protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
• a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I’m not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we’re likely to lose him anyway

I like this analysis.

[Autolycus]

I’m’s probably wrong here, like always, but’s I believe’s BlasterMaster more’s than not. At first’s I distrusted’s him b/c he opened his damn yap so much, but at this’s point in time I is inclined to trust 'im.

We’s got 4 possible options right, town, vig, mafia, or SK. If he’s was plain vanilla town, I dont think he’s would have talked so friggen much. Puttin’ a noose around ‘is own neck, that’s what. If he’s was SK, then why didn’t he kills me when asked? Nobody’s loves me in this God-forsaken town, and people’s been lookin’ at me mighty suspicious-like lately. But hey, I never’s understood those SK types.

So then he’s either an honest vig or a lying mafia. See, if I know’s one thing about Mafia, is that they’s got a code. Flatout lying 'aint their style. Then’s again, them’s the old Mafia. Punk kids these day’s aint got no class.

So I say’s we trust him. Now, if ya’s excuse me, the sun’s set and shit, so I’m goin’ down to tha bar with Storyteller.

[Queuing]

@Autolycus

I’m’s probably wrong here, like always, but’s I believe’s BlasterMaster more’s than not. At first’s I distrusted’s him b/c he opened his damn yap so much, but at this’s point in time I is inclined to trust 'im.

We’s got 4 possible options right, town, vig, mafia, or SK. If he’s was plain vanilla town, I dont think he’s would have talked so friggen much. Puttin’ a noose around ‘is own neck, that’s what. If he’s was SK, then why didn’t he kills me when asked? Nobody’s loves me in this God-forsaken town, and people’s been lookin’ at me mighty suspicious-like lately. But hey, I never’s understood those SK types.

So then he’s either an honest vig or a lying mafia. See, if I know’s one thing about Mafia, is that they’s got a code. Flatout lying 'aint their style. Then’s again, them’s the old Mafia. Punk kids these day’s aint got no class.

So I say’s we trust him. Now, if ya’s excuse me, the sun’s set and shit, so I’m goin’ down to tha bar with Storyteller.

So Autolycus, I have you as voting for Menecchio. Is this correct? Are you leaving it as such? A rather useless vote IMO. We need citizens to choose sides. We have 4 of them, 1 must appeal to you.

[Rysto]

@Rysto

I’ve had a second idea, but I’m not as sure about this one. I’m just going to throw this one out for discussion; I’m not endorsing the idea yet but I’d like everybody’s thoughts. Don’t lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc’s protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master’s claim – he can’t get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he’ll lose.

Some issues:

• is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
• guaranteeing the Doc’s protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
• a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I’m not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we’re likely to lose him anyway

Oh yeah, there’s one more potential problem. It’s possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that’s the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

[MonkeyMensch]

Gotta read and think, but in the meanwhile…

unvote aguecheek.

[Queuing]

Day 2 Votes

7 -Blaster Master – (Me, Gadarene (again), pimaspinner, hocow, brewha, pygmy rugger, ArizonaTeach, Winston, Aguacheek, Lakia)
Unvote – (gadarene, brewha, queuing, Arizona teach)
5 - Queuing – (menecchio, Zuma (again), starving but strong, nesta, kivvik, pleonast, brewha)
Unvote – Menechio, Zuma, nesta
5 - Pleonast – (Lakia , Kat, suburban plankton, mad the swine, Fernforest, fretfulporcupine, gadarene, queuing)
Unvote – (Lakia, MadtheSwine, gadarene)
4 -Gadarene – (Fern Forest, Chrisk (after unvote), smitty, Blaster Master, Nesta, Arizona teach)
(Unvote- Fern Forest, chrisk)
3 - PygmyRunner – (Zuma, madtheswine, menecchio, glee)
Unvote - Zuma
1 -Chrisk – (Rysto, FCOD, Kat, PygmyRugger, arizonateach, Lakia (after unvote), Winston, glee
Unvote –( Kat, Rysto, Lakia, FCOD, arizona, winston, glee, pygmy rugger)
1 - Rysto – (sturmhauke)
1 - Hocow – (Malacandra)
0 – Aguecheek – (Monekymensch)
Unvote – (Monkeymensch)
0 - FCOD – (fretful porcupine, storyteller)
Unvote – (Fretful, storyteller)
0 -Brewha – (fernforest, Monkeymensch)
Unvoted – fernforest, Monkemensch
0 - Fernforest – (Winston)
* (Unvote – Winston) *
0- Autocylus – (Chrisk, menecchio
Unvote – (Chrisk, menecchio
**0 **-Nesta – (sturmhauke, )
Unvote -sturm

[Autolycus]

@Queuing

So Autolycus, I have you as voting for Menecchio. Is this correct? Are you leaving it as such? A rather useless vote IMO. We need citizens to choose sides. We have 4 of them, 1 must appeal to you.

I’ll tell’s you what’s useless. Pesterin’ me to change my vote and lynch some poor schmuk who I’s never even met b4. My vote stands, and you’d be wise to mind’s your own business.

Your vote recount’s inaccurate to fuck. Keep up this rate and I’ll switch my vote’s in a way youz might not like.

[Queuing]

Sigh, is it? Damn this shit is hard. Of course you didn’t actually tell me HOW or anything.

[Autolycus]

@Queuing

Sigh, is it? Damn this shit is hard. Of course you didn’t actually tell me HOW or anything.

Well, maybe’s I was overzealous’ in me’s remarks. Upon’s rereading over a brewsky or three, the count seems ok except for me’. I’s was afraid you wuz porposefully tamperin’ with tha tally or somethin’.

[StarvingButStrong]

My god. This game requires more reading than an Eng. Lit. course.

Sexton, thanks for your post. I was nodding along as I read, you seem most eloquent and your arguments well-founded. IOW, I agree with you mostly.

But I’m having a big problem with following this:

@JSexton

Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

If, as you say, the SK is out to kill mafia, why aren’t you saying, ‘Here’s a knife, go to my son and god bless’?

Why is ‘cutting down the number of deaths each night’ a goal to be sought? Citizen deaths, sure, but isn’t the only thing better than a dead scum TWO dead scum?

I’m a total newbie, and I’m sure I misunderstand many of the finer points, but there have been several posts from different people all agreeing that the SK and VG will be going after Mafia at least in the early stages of the game. (Day 2 is early, yes?) And once the SK is dead, the Vig ceases to be, too, right?
So, assuming you have called everything correctly, that Blaster Master is the SK and Pleonast, Queuing, Glee, and Aguecheek are all mafia, we could have these two situations:

A) We hang Blaster Master today. The SK is dead, the Vig turns into an ordinary citizen. Tonight the Mafia kill the townie of their choice. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead SK - 1 Dead Mafia 0

B) We hang one of the four you call Mafia. The Mafia kill a townie of their choice. Overnight the SK kills another of the IDed Mafia. The Vig kills a third. Result come dawn of Day 3: Dead citizens - 7 Dead Mafia 3

(Okay, this ignores protections and blockers and such, but…)
Please explain to me why you think it’s, your words, pressing to kill the SK? Why isn’t it better to be rid of three Mafia and leave the SK for another day?

[Gadarene]

Hmm. Now I’m not sure what to do. A sincere question: if I am lynched tonight, and I turn out to be vanilla town (which I will), will that give us any useful information? If so, then be my guest. I can and will offer no defense other than my vanilla-ness. It’s becoming increasingly clear that I’m a bear of very little brain when it comes to this game.

I also like Rysto’s idea about sparing Blaster Master unless there’s a Vig counter-claim. While this point is a good one:

It’s possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that’s the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

I’d add that if Blaster Master is Mafia and we then lynch him on the strength of the counter-claim, we might lose our Vig but we’ll have a bead on at least a few more scum as well. Even though storyteller is right that scum networks might be less telling (or at least not completely telling) if we assume that the scum has half a brain, I still guarantee that if Blaster Master does turn out to be scum, most of the rest of those on my list are too. (And I agree with Queuing that I really think zuma is scum…although admittedly that might just be because he/she really got my hackles up during our exchanges.)

In any event, I’d be satisfied switching my vote back again from Blaster Master to Pleonast—although I won’t do it yet—if the people I trust as townies (Rysto and Lakai predominantly) continue to convince me that’s a good idea.

[Lakai]

@ArizonaTeach

All righty. You know what, I’m going to go forward on the assumption that he is the vigilante unless someone makes a counter claim, and at the moment, someone else has made the hairs on my neck stand.

unvote Blaster Master.

And because of the shout-out in this post, of which the only purpose I can fathom is to make people suspicious of an alliance between me and Gadarene in case he turns out to be scum, I will vote to lynch Gadarene.

Why would the Vig role claim? Assuming both the SK and the Vig want to win (which is an assumption most of you are not making) the Vig dies as soon as the SK knows who he is. If the Vig role claims today, then the doctor will have him and Blaster Master to choose between and he might not guess right. It’s too much of a risk, I would lay low.

@Rysto

Oh yeah, there’s one more potential problem. It’s possible that Blaster Master is Mafia. If that’s the case, then this would out our Vig to no good purpose.

Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.

[Lakai]

@Winston Smith

You’re the Vigilante,eh? We’ll be sure to mention that at your funeral.

Sigh

Looks like there won’t be bloodshed for a few days now.

[Queuing]

@Gadarene

Hmm. Now I’m not sure what to do. A sincere question: if I am lynched tonight, and I turn out to be vanilla town (which I will), will that give us any useful information? If so, then be my guest. I can and will offer no defense other than my vanilla-ness.

Yeah, I think it will. It seems, to me, that we have 4-5 people who have very clearly come out on “sides”. These 4-5 are BlasterMaster, Pleonast, Zuma (on one side), and you and me on the other. I can’t speak for the other side, but I know that you and I it just kind of happened. No other boards or anything to chat on. If one of us dies, and one of them dies, maybe we can see who is right. Of course, I think its better if Pleonast and Zuma die then either you or me.

For the record my scum list suspects (I include the SK as scum) are:
**
Blaster Master
Pleonast
Zuma
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke
Hocow
Autocylus.**

There is a break between the top 3 and the rest. I truly believe the top 3 are scum. Storyteller made it on both Pleonast and Blaster Master’s trust list. Sturmhauke and Hocow due to lack of posting and seemingly random, but completely safe votes. Autocylus because of his posts.

There we go, my list.

On preview, we have blood at noon Wednesday at the latest. I think the next days may go faster.

[Santo_Rugger]

@Lakai

<snip>
Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.

This is the one that scares me.

Blaster, yes or no question: Do you know who the Doctor is?

[ArizonaTeach]

@Lakai

Another possibility is that the doctor targeted himself last night, which is why we only got two kills. If that is the case then who ever did not get the kill last night knows who the doctor is. The doctor might get killed himself if he protects someone else tonight.

One does not necessarily equal the other here. If the Doctor protected someone, all whoever tried to kill that person knows is that the person was protected by the Doctor, not that it was the Doctor him or herself…or even that the murderer was blocked, right?