Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Lakai]
Ok, let’s go through all the scenarios.

If Blaster Master is the Vig, we get a second controlled killing. This would be great if Blaster Master is telling the truth and goes along with us.

If Blaster Master is mafia, he would theoretically only target townies. If we choose someone for him to kill, and that person is alive come morning, we can then lynch Blaster Master. In this scenario, the real vig would have to keep quiet and not kill who we tell Blaster Master to kill.

If Blaster Master is the SK, the Vig won’t kill him because he would be busy worrying if Blaster Master has the Doctor’s protection of not. The vig would have to wait for the doctor to die in order to strike. Meanwhile, Blaster Master enjoys the doctor’s protection and kills who we tell him.

Here is where things get tricky. If Blaster Master is the SK, and kills a Mafioso when we tell him, then the Vig would know that Blaster Master is the SK and he could then come out of the woodwork. Then we can lynch Blaster Master.

I can’t see Blaster Master winning if he is lying. If he is mafia or SK, he just postponed his execution. We can still lynch someone equally as suspect in the meantime.

Before I confuse NAF1138 even more by switching votes to Pleonast, I want to see what people think of this. Rysto, who would you vote for if Blaster Master agrees with this?

Blaster Master, would you go along with this?
[/QUOTE]

I agree with your assessment, if I were the SK and were doing as the town requested, then I’m only an asset until the game gets late. And if you’re really concerned, assuming there’s a beat cop out there, they can investigate me twice, and out me if I come up as a combination that makes me likely to be mafia or SK, and then they get the protection of the doctor instead, and then the VIG can kill me when the town decides it’s a good time, and get his confirmed townie status.

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
Lakai:
There’s another scenario. Given the 6-0 headstart the Mafia has in winnowing our numbers, they might be willing to sacrifice one of their members to keep us in the dark for a day or two longer. Which means that Blaster Master, if he is Mafia, might not have any qualms about killing a Mafia member at our behest over the night to establish his legitimacy…as long as it was a Mafia member whose death he felt wouldn’t do too much damage in the long run.

So I propose that if we do go along with this, we choose only suspects with seemingly well-established networks—high-value suspects, as it were—for Blaster Master to kill.

I’m assuming Queuing is town, by the way, but I have to say that I could be wrong about that. I’m not wrong about me, however.
[/QUOTE]

We made need a ruling on that. I’m under the impression that the mafia can’t kill themselves. NAF, can you confirm or deny that?

Either way, I say let the beat cop investigate me, and only out himself IF I turn up other than I say I am, and then he gets the doc’s protection, and the VIG kills me.
Let’s assume for a moment mafia can kill mafia, then if I’m really mafia and the mafia decides to kill mafia to protect my claim, then after two investigations, I should show up as mafia, then the beat cop outs me, gets my protection instead and then let the VIG kill me. Thus, the idea of mafia killing mafia would only result in more mafia deaths.

If you’re wrong about me, to what extent does that throw your personal worldview out of whack?

Well, I suppose I’d need to re-evaluate my suspicions, but it’s not gonna make me change my political or religious affiliations.

[Lakai]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I agree with your assessment, if I were the SK and were doing as the town requested, then I’m only an asset until the game gets late. And if you’re really concerned, assuming there’s a beat cop out there, they can investigate me twice, and out me if I come up as a combination that makes me likely to be mafia or SK, and then they get the protection of the doctor instead, and then the VIG can kill me when the town decides it’s a good time, and get his confirmed townie status.
[/QUOTE]

Is there anyway to really know if the beat cop will investigate you or not? You propose it as though the beat cop will listen to you.

It does not matter because at this point because I have very little to go on. All I can do now is wait for Wednesday noon to get more evidence. In the meantime, I reluctantly endorse Rysto’s idea because I can’t see how Blaster Master can get away with a fake role claim for too long.

[QUOTE=Gadarene]
Lakai:
There’s another scenario. Given the 6-0 headstart the Mafia has in winnowing our numbers, they might be willing to sacrifice one of their members to keep us in the dark for a day or two longer. Which means that Blaster Master, if he is Mafia, might not have any qualms about killing a Mafia member at our behest over the night to establish his legitimacy…as long as it was a Mafia member whose death he felt wouldn’t do too much damage in the long run.

So I propose that if we do go along with this, we choose only suspects with seemingly well-established networks—high-value suspects, as it were—for Blaster Master to kill.

I’m assuming Queuing is town, by the way, but I have to say that I could be wrong about that. I’m not wrong about me, however.
[/QUOTE]

If he is mafia, and chooses to kill mafia, then better for us. Though it would not be in the interest of the mafia to do this since there will eventually come a time when they can’t kill anymore of their own, Blaster Master then won’t make the kill and they lose Blaster.

[Suburban_Plankton]

@Blaster Master

Point 2: If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn’t you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Err, that argument only makes sense if you knew that someone else was going to target CaerieD.
I don’t believe you, Blaster Master. You have obviously played this game before, and I think that you’ve figured out a way to save your neck by claiming a role in such a way that we can’t possibly unravel the true story.
We have this possible strategy, courtesy of brewha:

We can give Blaster Master a target, and *if *the Miller blocks the Serial Killer, and *if *the Doctor protects Blaster, and *if *our target dies, then Blaster Master is the Vigilante.

But only if you weigh the same as a Duck.

Or this one, that you have given us yourself:

We don’t lynch you, we convince the Doctor to not protect you. Then if you are killed that means that you were the Vigilante, and the Mafia and/or the Serial Killer wanted to get rid of you, but if you aren’t killed that means that you are the Serial Killer…

No, if you are killed you’re the Serial Killer, and if you aren’t killed you’re the Doctor…

No,…aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don’t think anyone else does either. And I think that’s just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you’ve gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you’re scum.

On preview, I see another one:

Either way, I say let the beat cop investigate me, and only out himself IF I turn up other than I say I am, and then he gets the doc’s protection, and the VIG kills me.

So now, we let you live for at least two more days so that the Beat Cop can investigate you (twice, just to make sure). Then he can out himself and hope that the Doctor decides to protect him every single night.

Which plan are we supposed to be following, anyway?

[Gadarene]

No,…aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don’t think anyone else does either. And I think that’s just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you’ve gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you’re scum.

I agree with you, Suburban Plankton, but the thing is that if Blaster Master isn’t the Vigilante, somebody else is who can put the lie to his claim. Unless and until such time as there’s a vigilante counter-claim or (worst case scenario) the real vigilante is targeted by either the SK or the Mafia, I say we can do worse than to provisionally believe Blaster Master and go after a different scum target…say, Pleonast or storyteller.

Or me, if you must, but I’m not scum and my lynching really won’t accomplish anything.

[Autolycus]

Goodsnight moon.

And yes, I voted for Menocchio, buts only because he mades me angry. You wouldn’t likes me when I’m angry. haha j/k

Vote Menocchio

[NAF1138]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
We made need a ruling on that. I’m under the impression that the mafia can’t kill themselves. NAF, can you confirm or deny that?

[/QUOTE]

You know, this is the first time this question has come up. You would know they were mafia once they were killed, and then the game would start to unravel for them I suspect. I don’t know if I would let them do it or not, but I can’t think of a reason why they would want to…so I am not sure it matters.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Queuing]
I didn’t have time to do the analysis because of timestamps? Wow, crazy. I had been reading this thread from the beginning you know, taking notes, cutting and pasting peoples trust/mistrust list. It was quite easy to see who CaerieD had trusted and not trusted. As it was easy to see who she had voted for. Therefore I knew the potential crumbs she had left, I had them in a word doc. All I did was start on whatever page it was that it had been announced she had been killed, copy her name., ctrl-F, cut and paste what she had said. She has 18 posts in this thread. One was a goodbye, another (at least 1) was an “Oh, I am playing” post, so that leaves 16 at MOST. And I couldn’t do that in 30 minutes. Well isn’t the funny, because you know I did.

[/quote]

Thing is, you’d kinda have to be focusing on CaerieD already for this to be plausible that’d you’d have everything so handy. And again, if you were that focused on her specifically, I’d tend to believe that it’s because you killed her.

Again the Chrisk Cop thing has come up. This I find really funny because Blaster Master and I were actually on the same side here. As I have said a few times before no I didn’t really think Chrisk was a cop. However, when we have 34 people to choose from (maybe 37, whatever around that number), and someone makes a role claim, however silly it may be, what do we have to lose by believing them at that time? Not forever, not as confirmed, but as on ok, why not you crazy bastard? Claim. We will believe you…for now. Just keep the info coming. It stops so do you. Its wrong, your dead. And guess what? His silly claim actually was TRUE!

You seem like you still don’t get it. ChrisK was suggesting that everyone make a similar post, as though, hypothetically, they were the cop. He then provided an example. It was not in an way a claim. Again: ChrisK did not claim cop.

As the “obvious” crumb…well we all know how I feel about that. I don’t know where this information of me not believing Menocchio as Town came from. I just choose to believe all of the detective’s information until someone PROVES, not THINKS, one piece is wrong. If someone can come and show my how this is a hurtful, illogical thing to do, then please come do. In fact I have been saying this for a while now, and NONE of you have been able to say it is. All you say is “its obvious that its Menecchio”. I wish I had your abilities to KNOW what others think.

The whole game is predicated on trying to understand what others are thinking. How does it hurt the town? When you are pursuing a lynch based on information that is likely to be false i.e., that CaerieD had a guilty on Blaster. Granted, I believed Blaster to be scum. But that wasn’t why.

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
Err, that argument only makes sense if you knew that someone else was going to target CaerieD.
I don’t believe you, Blaster Master. You have obviously played this game before, and I think that you’ve figured out a way to save your neck by claiming a role in such a way that we can’t possibly unravel the true story.
[/QUOTE]

Actually, I have never played this game before, but I have read about it before, and did enjoy reading the previous game. But I did give a good amount of thought into when and how I would out myself. I had hoped I could have avoided this for another day or two, but it was clear that the mafia wanted to shut me up and started this bandwagon; unfortunately for them, they made a very bad choice in who to attempt to steamroll.

Or this one, that you have given us yourself:

We don’t lynch you, we convince the Doctor to not protect you. Then if you are killed that means that you were the Vigilante, and the Mafia and/or the Serial Killer wanted to get rid of you, but if you aren’t killed that means that you are the Serial Killer…

No, if you are killed you’re the Serial Killer, and if you aren’t killed you’re the Doctor…

No,…aw hell, I have no idea what the plan is supposed to be. And I don’t think anyone else does either. And I think that’s just the way you want it. In just a short amount of time, you’ve gone from having half the town wanting to lynch you, to having people making up convoluted strategies to keep you alive. You are certainly a master at playing this game, but I still think you’re scum.

On preview, I see another one:

So now, we let you live for at least two more days so that the Beat Cop can investigate you (twice, just to make sure). Then he can out himself and hope that the Doctor decides to protect him every single night.

Which plan are we supposed to be following, anyway?

I’ve provided options, as have Rysto, and Lakai. I will leave it up to you all, and mostly the doctor, which plan you all think is best. Either way, here’s the options as I see them:

1. Lynch Gadarene. I target Queuing, request the SK to kill Pleonast.
2. Lynch Queuing, I target Pleonast, request the sk to kill Gadarene.
3. Lynch Pleonast, I target Gadarene, request the SK to kill Queuing.
4. Lynch me, then all it’s a moot point, and request the SK kill one of the other three and hope he hasn’t switched allegiances with no mafia dead, and the VIG now gone as well.

Obviously, for options 1-3, we can swap my target with the SK target if the town is more suspicious of one than the other… No matter what, as long as we can get at least two of the three, I’m sure we’ll gain a large amount of information.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I’ll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don’t have any choice but to role claim now.

**Point 1: ** If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity.
[/quote[
This part I believe.

On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier… she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn’t agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

I don’t see any reason at all to see CAerieD as scummy…but that’s a subjective opinion.

**Point 2: ** If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn’t you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Why would you believe that both would die if you targeted Queuing? To me, this sounds like an admission that you saw her cop breadcrumbs and guessed that the mafia would be killing her. That is not the action of the vig, and it is in direct contrast to your point #1.

**Point 3: ** How can you prove you’re the vigilante? Simple, don’t lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I’m not mafia.

This doesn’t prove that your the SK, unless one of them shows as that. Simply killing mafia does not mean you’re town.

Point 4: How can we be sure you’re not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it’s up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I’ve made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

According to the rules, if the town kills all the mafia but leaves the SK alive, the town loses. Period. We have to kill the SK, and sooner is better.
So, I do not believe you. But I’m willing to let the real vig deal with you.

Do whatever you want to tonight. I’m hopeful that it will be your last night. If you survive…well, we’ll deal with the implications tomorrow. But I’d like to re-emphasize that you killing mafia does not mean that you are pro-town.

[NAF1138]

5- Blaster Master (hocow, Gadarene, Winston Smith, Augecheek, Lakai)
5- Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton)
5- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha)
4- Gadarene- (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach)
4- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio, glee)
1- hocow - (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio - (Autolycus)
1- Rysto - (sturmhauke)

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I’ll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don’t have any choice but to role claim now.

**Point 1: ** If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity.
[/quote]

This part I believe.

On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier… she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn’t agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

I don’t see any reason at all to see CAerieD as scummy…but that’s a subjective opinion.

**Point 2: ** If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn’t you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

Why would you believe that both would die if you targeted Queuing? To me, this sounds like an admission that you saw her cop breadcrumbs and guessed that the mafia would be killing her. That is not the action of the vig, and it is in direct contrast to your point #1.

**Point 3: ** How can you prove you’re the vigilante? Simple, don’t lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I’m not mafia.

This doesn’t prove that your the SK, unless one of them shows as that. Simply killing mafia does not mean you’re town.

Point 4: How can we be sure you’re not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it’s up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I’ve made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

According to the rules, if the town kills all the mafia but leaves the SK alive, the town loses. Period. We have to kill the SK, and sooner is better.
So, I do not believe you. But I’m willing to let the real vig deal with you.

Do whatever you want to tonight. I’m hopeful that it will be your last night. If you survive…well, we’ll deal with the implications tomorrow. But I’d like to re-emphasize that you killing mafia does not mean that you are pro-town.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Rysto]
All right, here’s my proposal. Whether or not Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we can make use of him. Here’s what we do: every Day, we vote to lynch somebody else, and also vote on a target for Blaster_Master. If Blaster_Master’s target ever survives, we lynch him. That way, whether Blaster_Master is the Vig or the SK, we get the benefits of his kills? Any thoughts?
[/QUOTE]

Trouble is, if he’s the SK, we need to kill him eventually in order to win. It’s a very risky proposition, although there is a metric ton of time left in the game.

[Fern_Forest]

Should the Doc protect Blaster Master tonight? Or will the Mafia be gunning for a certain player who just subbed in? The way **JSexton **waded into this thread has to have scared the Mafia if he fingered more then a few mobsters correctly.

Perhaps it’s best to not make any definitive choice for the Doc to force the Mob to have to guess and hope their kill goes through.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Rysto]
I’ve had a second idea, but I’m not as sure about this one. I’m just going to throw this one out for discussion; I’m not endorsing the idea yet but I’d like everybody’s thoughts. Don’t lynch Blaster Master unless someone counter-claims Vig. If no one claims, Blaster Master gets the Doc’s protection tonight. Basically, we want to make it so that the only way Blaster Master can get killed in during the Day, and we only do that if the Vig is willing to out himself. The nice thing about this is that we use the SK to implicitly confirm Blaster Master’s claim – he can’t get rid of the Vig without outing himself, and then he’ll lose.

Some issues:

• is it reasonable to trade the Vig for the SK?
• guaranteeing the Doc’s protection gives the Mafia a free hand to kill whomever they like tonight
• a Mafioso could make a false claim and kill off our Vig. Is it reasonable to trade the Vig for a Mafioso? In our position, I’m not sure that it is; on the other hand, if Blaster Master is the Vig we’re likely to lose him anyway
  [/QUOTE]

This is a fairly workable plan, with a couple problems. If the vig is reluctant to claim, it all falls apart. I can think of a few players who probably wouldn’t claim under these circumstances, if they were the vig. The problem of directing the doc is also a concern. There’s one other problem, but saying it out loud would be stupid.

I do think trading the vig for any scum, mafia or SK, is worth it. 1:1 trades are generally in the town’s favor, even a power role like cop or doc. And a vig can often be more a liability than a plus. I don’t like a gun being in anyone’s hands other than a public, accountable town.

[Fern_Forest]

Is anyone else seeing post 1150 as a blank post by JSexton?

[Blaster_Master]

JSexton, your last post appears blank to me…?

[Gadarene]

unvote Blaster Master

vote Pleonast

For now.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=Fern Forest]
Is anyone else seeing post 1150 as a blank post by JSexton?
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, I screwed up a quote tag, and I can’t edit it. The next post is the corrected one.

[Fern_Forest]

If you quote it you can read what was written. It is the same as the following post.