Strongly agree. We have to assume that the mafia is smart enough to not all wagon together. There will certainly be some links discernable from posts and votes, but I doubt they’re stupid enough to simply vote en masse. Finally, non-mason townies don’t know who is on their side, so voting patterns for them are by definition meaningless. They reflect only that person’s personal beliefs.
But why would you be so worried about two votes that you’d spontaneously claim? Two votes don’t really mean anything. They’re not even a wagon.
Christ on a cracker.
unvote BlasterMaster
I’ll try to read the rest over again tomorrow…
I admit, it was a bad read on my part. I asked for guidance on who the VIG should be killing and got precisely ONE response, so all I had to go on was my gut distrust. She said things that look very fishy to me. I addressed this earlier, I think, but I’m willing to go sifting through her posts again and point out specifically what looked scummy to me if it will help you.
My concern was, if the deaths laid out exactly as I had publicly posted, I thought it would have laid too much suspicion on me, and I would have been pegged as the VIG or SK right at the beginning of day two, and we’d be having this discussion 3 days ago, except with **chrisk ** instead of you.
No, but killing mafia (based on my understanding they can’t, or at least wouldn’t kill themselves) would prove that I’m either the SK or the VIG. I really can’t see how mafia killing themselves makes sense. If I were mafia, they’d have to keep doing the dirty work of the town to keep me alive and trusted, which means, they’re basically handing the game over to the town to lose, meanwhile the real VIG and SK do whatever they do, which at that point, would almost certainly be anti-mafia.
Simple solution, I’ll kill whoever the town wants, and if after a period of time we figure we’re down to just a couple mafia (say we’ve killed about 5 or 6). You can stop protecting me, and either let the SK or mafia take me, or lynch me.
As stated above, I agree, it doesn’t… but it DOES mean, I’m not mafia. An SK forced to work for the town, especially with a concession like above where you can easily decide he’s no longer useful, is also a losing proposition for the SK.
On preview **JSexton ** already got this one, but so it’s official like:
THE TOWN/MAFIA WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO KILL THE SK TO WIN. THERE IS ONLY ONE GAME WINNER. IF THE SK SURVIVES TO THE END OF THE GAME THE SK IS THE WINNER. THE ONLY WINNER. EVERYONE ELSE LOSES.
In all caps so everyone will see it and I don’t have to keep posting this same info over and over again.
**Pleonast ** and **Queuing ** at 6 votes now. **BM ** down to 3.
Well, that’s a twist. I didn’t expect Blaster Master to claim Vig or SK because I thought both of those roles would play it a little more low-key.
It’s been a long day and I need to get to bed soon, but I’m trying to come to some sort of resolution so I don’t dream about this damn game all night. I figured I might as well hash it out in a post so my thoughts can help, or someone can point out something I’ve missed.
Here are the possibilities I see if we try Rysto’s test from post 1086:
- Blaster Master is the Vig: We pick a target for him and see if they end up dead. If they do, we can suspect that he’s the Vig, or SK, or Mafia, since all three of them can kill who they choose. Of course, the Mafia or the SK could kill the designated target to confirm Blaster Master’s role for him even if he isn’t a power role, but the only way they know for sure he’s not is if he is Mafia, and I think it benefits the Mafia to know as much, if not more so, than the rest of us if that’s the case. I don’t think either of them would kill our target, thereby not confirming his role to themselves, and wasting a kill to boot if he is the SK or Vig.
If he is the Vig or SK and our lynch or target is scum, then I think the Mafia will take out Blaster Master tonight. If our targets aren’t scum I think the Mafia will leave him alone tomorrow hoping we’ll take out Blaster Master for them, since we can’t be sure he isn’t Mafia playing us all. That is, unless the Doctor protects him. More on this in a bit.
- Blaster Master is the SK: It plays out exactly like if he was the Vig, except our Vig now knows who the SK is. And the SK is now under our control. As long as we proceed with the understanding that if Blaster Master fails to make his kill he’s as good as dead he’s doing our bidding and we’ve effectively hobbled the SK. The real Vig is our shield from the SK coasting to endgame. Instead of claiming he can just kill Blaster Master if it’s getting close. That would be towards the end of the game where the Vig might be more valuable as a confirmed town than as an extra kill. This puts the Vig at risk of getting killed by other means, but if that happens then we’re on to Blaster Master and can take him out ourselves.
Of course, if he ends up dead from a Mafia kill for outing scum and is the SK, then that helps us out quite a bit.
-
Blaster Master is Mafia: This is the worst case. If he’s Mafia he may be counting on getting two kills in exchange for his outing. We do gain more information by being able to parse his posts and look at those who voted with him, but I’m not sure that offsets losing two valuable townies. If he’s Mafia I’m pretty sure Queuing and Gadarene aren’t, because his plan is to take both of them out. The Mafia may decide to kill the designated target to give Blaster Master a chance at a defense, or they may figure his case is lost and kill someone else, and set up a bandwagon with other Mafia members to try to shield themselves. If neither of the kills is Mafia and Blaster Master somehow manages to talk his way out of a lynching the Mafia could play along and continue to kill whoever we tell them to until we hit a scum. If Blaster Master fails to make the kill we’ll probably be onto two scum, Blaster Master himself and whoever we told him to kill. Of course, they could use this against us and get another free lynching out of Blaster Master’s death. I really don’t like having the Mafia happily playing along as we have them killing townie after townie at night.
-
Blaster Master is a civilian, or another pro-town power role: OK, maybe this is the worst case. If he’s not the Vig and he’s pro-town, he’s really hurting us with the false claim, and I think would deserve a lynching for it. The only good justification I can think of is if he’s a cop and has a bead on Queuing or Gadarene, but even then, why not claim cop instead? If he’s a vanilla townie and is just sure he’s right about them, he should have claimed that and given the best defense he could. His death would exonerate him, and we could then get down to business. If he’s only doing this so he can stay in the game one more day, shame on him, because that isn’t in the town’s best interest.
I don’t think number 4 is likely, though. If he’s pro-town he’s been posting a lot of analysis to help the town, and doing something that would hurt us in the end wouldn’t seem likely.
[Wow, this is my first post to the SDMB that has been too long to fit. At least I think that’s why it wouldn’t post. It actually said it was too short. I broke it up and now it will.]
I’m torn on what I think is the best course of action. There are a lot of situations outlined above that are very negative for the town. Whether the risks are worth the possible reward depends a little on whether we currently think Blaster Master is pro or anti town.
I’ve been leaning towards him being pro-town, but I’m far from sure. I propose this:
Tonight we follow through with Rysto’s test. We have the Doctor protect Blaster Master. If he fails to kill, we lynch him. If he does kill, and one or both of our targets are scum, we have the Doctor protect him a second night. If he fails to make a kill any night we lynch him. After that the Doctor flips a coin every night to decide if we protect him. If he’s the SK the real Vig votes for him every night (after the second night) and should eventually get a kill, giving us a trusted townie and a dead SK. If the Mafia wastes kills going after him hoping to win the coin flip then that gives us more time to hunt them down. Now, if neither target tonight is scum I think we should lynch Blaster Master tomorrow on the good chance he’s Mafia. We lose two townies if that’s the case, but at least we would have a starting point for Mafia hunting.
It’s much later than I’d hoped to wrap this up, so please forgive me if I’ve missed something or if this is a bad idea. I’d be happy for any corrections that give us a better chance.
In the time it took me to work my way through the logic for my post there’s been another page and a half of new posts. I haven’t read them yet. I just wanted to let everyone know that if a better idea than mine has come up that I wasn’t proposing mine as better, I just hadn’t read it yet.
On another note, it occured to me that my night attack may be against the GF (though I’m not inclined to believe any of those three are, but just to cover all the bases). Thus, another scenario is that my attack fails, but it could look like I was a mafia who claimed VIG then simply didn’t follow through. If that’s the case, I think trading the VIG for the GF is a perfectly fair trade, and I’d have no qualms if I were lynched in less than an hour tomorrow.
OTOH, I’m under the impression that the miller can block the GF’s immunity to my night attacks, if that’s the case (NAF, can we get a ruling on that?), then if there is a miller, maybe they should also block my night target until the GF turns up?
I couldn’t have that happen without letting the miller know that he had found the GF and asking if he would rather block the night immunity or try for a shot at stopping a mafia kill. Frankly I think this is too much info for the Miller to have. So no, the Miller acts on the GF the same way they would on all other Mafia, the GF is immune.
I’m fine with that. I’m certain enough that at least one of the pair between Gadarene and Queuing is scum, that I’ll bet my life on it. If both of them turn up townies, lynch me tomorrow. However, if you all prefer I go after Pleonast, I’ll do that… I’m just not nearly certain enough of his guilt to bet my life on it. Of course, the SK can do us all a big favor and target the one I don’t, and then we REALLY open this game up.
Also, it looks like the lynch votes are going to Pleonast and Queuing. If that’s still the case tomorrow, I’ll switch my lynch vote to one of them (probably Queuing, unless Pleonast posts a startlingly unspectacular defense).
I think you may be doomed Blaster Master. Make your kill tonight count because I think there’s a very good chance you wont make it to the morning.
So NAF1138, question #200. If the VG dies before the SK but the town wins can the VG still claim victory?
P.S. You should have killed Autolycus like I said. Good ol’ hindsight. Ha-ha, what a game.
Yes, the Vig wins or loses with the town.
ok final vote count and then I am going to bed.
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
5- Queuing - (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha)
4- Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach)
3- Blaster Master - (hocow, Winston Smith, Lakai)
4- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio,glee)
1- hocow = (Malacandra)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)
1- Rysto (sturmhauke)
My time is going to get just a tad limited starting tomorrow and lasting 'till about Friday (I have family comming into town), but I will do my best to stay on top of things. I will at the very least give you a vote count twice a day. I suspect that tomorrow (real time) will be just as long as today was and that this day will go down to the wire, but I hope I have answered all of the major questions you had for now.
Goddamn this thread is getting out of hand. It’s only been a few realtime days and it’s already nearly as long as the last thread. Some people have said I haven’t been posting as much this time, which is true. One, I read slow, and two, I have a job now whereas last time I was unemployed for most of the game. I don’t like to post without reading everything, and there is quite a lot to read.
I’m in favor of assuming Blaster Master is the Vig for the time being. In any case, he’s likely to get killed tonight one way or another.
Gadarene has been pinging my scumdar for several pages now. His scum list corresponds fairly well with my not-scum list, and his arguments consists mainly of a lot of smoke and mirrors, especially the bizzaro volunteering that someone kill him tonight. I don’t see how his getting murdered at night proves anything about anyone he’s suspicious of.
unvote Rysto, vote Gadarene.
I’m out most of today :smack: , so I’d better do something now.
I’m finding this game way more complicated than the first (obviously there are more players, plus the SK and the Vig).
I echo JSexton’s comment that “Finally, non-mason townies don’t know who is on their side, so voting patterns for them are by definition meaningless. They reflect only that person’s personal beliefs.”
At present my current vote seems wasted, so I’ll follow Zuma (who I trust) and:
unvote pygmyrugger
lynch Queuing
Well damn, a VIG claim. I am willing to go with the let him live for now, give him a target and see what happens option. My vote is currently on one of the top three, so I shall leave it there for now, barring some strange thing popping up. The next couple of days will be interesting, that’s for sure. (Although I almost dread the influx of posts that are gonna be hitting after this game-day ends. Weekend’s over, and half the time I come home from work it’s bed-time by the time I finish reading =P )
After mature consideration of the three pages by which this thread has lengthened since I was last able to look at it:
unvote hocow
vote Gadarene
JSexton, I strongly disagree with your point about getting rid of the vig (or, by extension, SK) at this point. The town is down 6, and mafia is down 0. Things are going to be a lot clearer tomorrow, and keeping the vig alive, even though the serial killer needs to eventually die, seems important.
You’re obviously an experienced player, and you’re an experienced player taking on the role of someone who advocated a fishing for cops scenario, yet who denounced that idea in the original werewolf observation thread. You’re also taking on the role of someone who said last (game) night that they were against the cooling off period, and defended it by saying that they didn’t want to make waves after screwing up the cop-fishing plan. You don’t make waves by going against what was then a unanimous vote in favor of it.
I think there is a very good chance you are scum, and if so, you are a very dangerous person to leave in this game.
I’m back and forth on whether chrisk was just completely inexperienced or not, but it is important for the town to not forget his actions, nor the fact that we have a veteran player now taking over his role. I’m going to focus on the people currently under suspicion, but I’m not going to let you off the hook by any means.
I’ll be taking a good, hard look at you (game) tomorrow.
Yes, there is a metric ton of time. I think the SK will eventually be taken out by accident or suspiscion. We can string up Blaster Master any time we wish, once we have identified and taken out a few mafioso. Even if BM is the SK, he better damn well do what we want him to do in the meantime. So let’s stick with the metric ton of time idea for now. I have a feeling a few mafioso will become obvious in the next day or two, and I’d rather have two kills a night instead of just one.