Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[zuma]

Also, I support Rysto’s plan of the doc protecting Blaster Master. Blaster Master’s claim is easily tested. If the town-decided target doesn’t turn up dead, BM has some splaining to do. If BM is the SK, well, he’s as good as a vig in that he becomes a tool of the town.

And frankly, with the cop dead, who the hell else is left to protect?

I’m sure we’ll probably string up MB sooner or later anyway if the SK doesn’t turn up dead, or out themselves.

[zuma]

@Queuing

Rules Recap - for ease as the game is starting on this page

Godfather- The head mafia member. In case of a tie in the night kill vote the Godfather decides. Godfather shows up as a regular townie if investigated, will survive being targeted for night kill by the Vigilante.

Also, (I think someone at some point brought this up earlier), the vig is very valuable in that he becomes a de-facto Godfather-detector. If Blaster Master fails to kill his target, and we string him up for it, and it turns out he is the vig, we have now found the godfather.

[zuma]

And I support Blaster Master’s idea that we string up either Gadarene or Queuing, and he offs the other one (or Pleonast or whoever the town agrees on). The important thing is that it should probably be one of the leading vote candidates and BM must tell us beforehand who he is targetting. This will test his role-claim.

With a Wednesday noon PST deadline, we should probably put someone on ten votes by Tuesday around lunchtime or earlier, and Master Blaster should give us his target soon thereafter. This ensures everyone has a chance to defend themselves and still gives us a day to work out that information.

[zuma]

@zuma

Also, (I think someone at some point brought this up earlier), the vig is very valuable in that he becomes a de-facto Godfather-detector. If Blaster Master fails to kill his target, and we string him up for it, and it turns out he is the vig, we have now found the godfather.

And of course it goes without saying that if Blaster Master fails to kill his target tonight, and we string him up, if he’s not the vig we’ve caught mafia. And if we have millers they should not block Blaster Master. We’ll have a lot more information about Blaster Master and others by seeing whether or not he makes his kill.

[Winston_Smith]

OK. I’ve gone back to page 2 and actually read about the vig role, and although I recognize the possibility that Blaster Master is actually falsely claiming the role, Queuing in this post particularly makes me suspicious. I mean, Queuing’s really going out of his way to cast doubt on even the most mundane of B M’s posts.

@Queuing

Ok, here are what the other people have said about Blaster Master.

Here is a post 626 where he plays semantics with words.

Here is a post 766 from Rysto, also outlining some of the things he has done.

Here is post 771 and post 779 from Kat, accusing him of lieing.

Here is another post 713 from Kat, about BM’s lieing.

Here is Aguecheek in post 731 talking about how he pointed out CaerieD to be killed. Which we all know she was.

Kat again, post 670 about his fake list of mistrusts.

More from Kat, in post 630 again all about his odd lists.

Look, this time its Rysto in post 650

@Queuing

I am wondering, what part of CaerieD’s suspicion is reactionary? Up until that point most people (I think and Blaster Master agrees) trusted Blaster Master for his posts, his math work and generally supported him. Yet CaerieD put him on the distrust list, along with Autocylus, who at that time was being bandwagonned.

I agree that acting on the CaerieD information alone may be somewhat thin. I have explained my other reasons for voting to lynch Blaster Master.

Hell she could have investigated Menocchio found him to be town, and just placed people she thought seemed to already have town support behind them (Blaster Master) and people who were being bandwaggoned (Autocylus) on her list to try to hide her power role.

However a person who was that tricky with their mistrust list would have been smart enough to put more then 1 person on her trusted list, don’t you think?

The harping about the “lie”, all the weird nitpicking about the friggin’ breadcrums, etcetera, etcetera ad nauseum.

I’m really disappointed the whole lynch Blaster Master movement fell apart. I was quite looking forward to it. Especially after his eleventh-hour attempt to implicate me.

@Blaster Master

I’ll give credit to JSexton, he was very close. I have been trying to make my role apparent for some time in hopes that the doctor could keep me alive at night to benefit the town. I had really hoped to not have to post this until at least the third or fourth day, but it looks like I don’t have any choice but to role claim now.

**Point 1: ** If I am the Vigilante, who have I killed thus far? On night 1, I killed Captain Carrot because, as I posted earlier, since the first kill is pretty much random, I wanted to ensure that the new players had their opportunity. On night 2, I killed CaerieD, for the reasons I stated earlier… she looked very scummy to me; I was wrong, and I apologize to her and to the town. I had asked for more input from the town, but only one person obliged and I didn’t agree with his/her suggestion for me to kill Autolycus.

**Point 2: ** If you are the Vigilante and had called for the Vigilante to kill Queuing, why didn’t you kill Queuing last night? Simple, how suspicious would it have looked if both Queuing and CaerieD had died last night? I almost certainly would have been pegged.

**Point 3: ** How can you prove you’re the vigilante? Simple, don’t lynch me today, and lynch either Gadarene or Queuing, either of which is almost certainly scum. I will target the opposite one. If the one I target tongiht comes up as scum, then you know for certain I’m not mafia.

Point 4: How can we be sure you’re not the serial killer masquerading as the vigilanate? If I am actually the SK, then it’s up to the real vigilante if he wants to kill me or not. However, I’ve made it very clear what I think the winning strategy is for both the SK and the VIG; and that is, to help the town.

Point 5: Let’s say we believe you are the vigilante, what happens tonight?

This is a complicated one, so let me play out the options as I see them:

As I stated earlier, I am more than willing to kill whichever between **Gadarene ** and **Queuing ** is not lynched today; and if neither is lynched, I’ll kill Gadarene. Since I’m not mafia, I believe if either of them (and certainly the one I kill tonight) will prove conclusively that I’m going pro-town.

Will the SK kill me? I can’t imagine he will, because IMO his best option is to help the town AND have a shorter game; both of which I will help with. On top of that, I’ve made it clear I have no intention of hunting him down at this time. Further, if he gets revealed or put on the chopping block, he can always attempt to use me as a scape goat to try to prevent from getting lynched for at least another day.

Will the mafia kill me? Probably. However, they may not attack me if the one I’ll target tonight is actually not mafia, in which case they will let me live to get lynched quickly tomorrow OR if they think the doctor or one of the GAs will protect me tonight.
Bottom line, you can lynch me now, and find out the hard way that the bandwagon on me was by the mafia OR you can let me live, get at least one more kill in tonight, and either let the mafia do your dirty work or lynch me tomorrow if by some miracle a miller blocks me, or the doctor sillily decides to protect **Gadarene ** or Queuing.

If you do decide to lynch me, or let me live and I die tonight, here’s the ones at whom I’d point the FoS in order of my certainty they’re mafia and/or SK:

Gadarene
Queuing
Winston Smith
Aguecheek
Brewha
ArizonaTeach
Pleonast
hocow
Pygmy Rugger

To you all, especially the top four or five. If I’m lynched, I can almost guarantee most of you will follow.

Now, look here: this could be a copy and paste from the Mafia night board conversation between Queuing and Blaster Master, like he’s rehearsing the possible arguments he might encounter in the main thread.

@Queuing

Why? You lied. You may have defended your lie, but big deal. You lied in the first place. I don’t care what reason you have for your lie. This is a game of trust, and you lied. Why would I believe you now?

To give the appearance of being pro-town? It was math, that was it. While it may be useful it really isn’t that useful. So the beat cops aren’t 100%. I know that. I also know they have a 50/50 chance if they accuse someone. This is much better then my 1 in 31 chance. Therefore if I know someone is a beat cop, and they say X is scum, well I am a going to damn well vote with them. Just like if I knew who the masons were I would vote with them, as they have better odds then I do.
In fact I would like someone to point out this “great” analysis that you have done. All you have done is math, and defended yourself. You have basically defended yourself by saying “Hey I am town, look at all my great analysis (Math), and how hard Queuing is going after me. He is scum. I am town. I post a lot. My analysis is great. Of course one of the few statements our Detective made mentioned me, but come on! She also said she trusted someone else. That is for sure the crumb. Don’t be dumd. I am town. My analysis (math) is great”

The only “great” analysis I have seen is by Rysto. All you have done is Math, all Zuma has done is accuse me over and over again for the same reason. All I have done is believe everything the one trusted person with information has said.

This is why I am voting on what CaerieD said. Guess what? She has better odds then I do. She KNEW something. I don’t know what that was. Either do you!

Yes, it may have been Menecchio. Why that is more likely to be the crumb then you or Autocylus, I don’t understand. Well I do understand. I get why you, and others, think it was Menecchio. However you all act like you KNOW. You don’t know. Unless you are scum. Your odds go down, down a lot. You know who maybe 10 other people are.

Well I am not Mafia. I have no idea what Gadarene is. I thought he was Mafia on the first day. Check my mistrust list. He was on it.

Honestly I don’t see either one of us playing for much longer.

Say I am successful, and you are scum and lynched today. I die tonight most likely.

Say I am successful, and you are lynched but you are town. In this scenario I make it through the night (probably again), and I am lynched (probably rather quickly) by the town. They will find out I am town then, but to late for me.

Say you are succesful, and get me lynched today. They find out I am town, you make it through the night, and they lynch you tomorrow.

Either way, I think we both die soon :).

I love how you never consider the other side, how you dismiss it, how confident you are that you are correct. True, all 3 of you could be town. I don’t think so, but hey I could be wrong. Your arrogance astounds me. You don’t even consider the idea that CaerieD could have left a different crumb

I am wondering have you got these psychic abilities of yours tested? I mean its amazing that you absolutely, without a doubt, 100% KNOW what CaerieD did.

He’s got it all worked out. I mean: yeah, he’s gonna swing, but he’s gonna take a couple of us with him, too. That’s all the Mafia needs to do, folks. Keep us on the run, keep us confused, make a role claim here and there as appropriate and it’s right into the winner’s circle for the scummy lot of them.

I’m throwing my lot in with the lynch Queuing contingent at this point for two reasons. Firstly, the Blaster Master bandwagon’s wheels fell off, and secondly, Queuing was next on my list.

jsexton’s analysis here is excellent (and timely - thank you jsexton). Our lists are virtually identical. And I’d like to point out that in this following post B M is outed as the SK. I think that’s still a distinct possibility, though I am just one man with one vote and the will of the town is to let laster Master live at least one more day and see how this drama-within-a-drama plays out. But also of note, and supporting Blaster Master’s Vig claim is that his list of suspicious characters pretty closely resembles jsexton’s. Of course, at the end of the day we’ll know a lot more than we know now.

@JSexton

Whew. Lots to digest. Fortunately, there’s some fairly transparent people in this town. Here’s my list, starting from the scum to the town:

Blaster Master. Serial Killer. He’s posting some neat analysis, because he wants to be perceived as useful. It’s also in his interest to catch scum. Trouble is, he got a little over eager and lied, and also made it clear that he’s got a killing role (317). That leaves one role, SK. I think he’s the best lynch today, in order to cut down on the number of deaths each night.

Pleonast: Scum. This surprises no one, of course. His bandwagonning makes his role pretty clear. Posts 391 and 461 are especially telling.

Queueing: Scum. His fishing for experienced players (268) and his misrepresentation of chrisk’s hypothetical cop claiming were pretty scummy. The best, though was post 581. A great big link-filled post analyzing CaerieD’s posts for breadcrumbs. Two problems: One: he got the conclusion wrong; Menocchio was clearly the crumb. Two, check the timestamps. That post was made thirty minutes after the dayscene went up. No way he read it, did that research, and came to his conclusion in that time. Not bloody likely. No, he and the rest of the mafia figured she was the cop, and planned this gambit. He may have even had that post ready to go.

glee: Scum, probably. Posts 267, 363 raise my hackles, so to speak. And I love post 884. What, scared of me? You want to lynch me before I get a chance to talk? How very townie of you.

Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.

Gadarene: Potentially scum.I don’t like the attack on StarvingBut Strong in post 456. Unforced vanilla claim. OTOH, I agree with several of your targets, and post 822 is fairly townie.

Brewha: leaning scum. I don’t like his unforced claim in post 719. Bit too defensive.

---

Winston Smith: Ugh. I want to call you scummy, but I also know that you’re, er, unconventional when it comes to this game. I don’t know what to think of you yet.

ArizonaTeach, Flying Cow, Fretful, hocow, malacandra, pimaspinner, pygmy runner, smitty, starvingbutstrong, Suburban Plankton: Neutral on all of you. Nothing you’ve posted makes me put you in either category yet, although there are certain links to other people for some of you. We’ll know more after more confirmed roles.

---

**Fern Forest, Kat, Kivvik, Lakai, MadTheSwine, nesta, MonkeyMensch, **: Leaning town for minor reasons.

sturmhawke: Leans town for minor reasons, and I greatly dislike the bandwagon on him. He may well be getting set up.

Autolycus: Here’s a controversial one. I firmly believe Auto is town.

Rysto: Seems quite town, based on analysis.

zuma/ Strongly believe zuma to be town. Her (?) analysis is very strong, and displays some very subtle townie tells. If she’s scum, my hat’s off.

Menocchio: I believe he’s confirmed by CaerieD. Potentially the Godfather, of course.

---

I think that covers everyone.

I don’t want the day over just yet, but my vote will be on Blaster. I’d like a claim out of him. I’d also be fine with lynching any of the top five people up there, but I think Blaster is the most pressing.

And here’s a parting thought: jsexton could be Mafia, and this whole thing an elaborate plot. Clever, yes? I don’t really think that’s the case here, but who knows. Normally I wouldn’t expect something quite so elaborate, in-depth, and utterly villainous. But this is the SDMB.
Unvote Blaster Master

Vote Queuing

[Malacandra]

@zuma

I’m sure we’ll probably string up MB sooner or later anyway if the SK doesn’t turn up dead, or out themselves.

“Good work, Master Blaster. I’ll probably kill you in the morning”.

All of the above looks sound. Now all we have to do is identify some scum for MB to deal with, and hope the Millers don’t accidentally role-block the Doctor, and… OK, we’ve got a lot to wish for before we’re out of the wood, but it’s a start.

[Malacandra]

@Malacandra

"Good work, Master Blaster.

Who he? :smack:

[Gadarene]

For those of you who are voting to lynch me: is it because you genuinely think I’m scum, or because you think it will yield useful information?

[zuma]

I think (correct me if I’m wrong), Pleonast, Gadarene, and Queuing are the three big vote-getters at this point. Once one of them reaches ten votes, Blaster Master needs go give us his choice for his kill. Then we have a day to review any defenses from them.

[storyteller0910]

Before things start getting crazy in here this morning, is this:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

an accurate vote count as of this minute?

[zuma]

@Gadarene

For those of you who are voting to lynch me: is it because you genuinely think I’m scum, or because you think it will yield useful information?

yes and yes.

Someone is getting lynched tonight, someone is getting killed by mafia, and someone may or may not be killed by Blaster Master. There is a boatload of useful information which will turn up.

If you and/or Queuing turn up town, I’m going to be immediately suspicious, along with everyone else who went along this scheme. If Pleonast turns up town, everyone on his bandwagon is going to look suspiscious.

Lines have been drawn, and we will know lots of information tomorrow.

[storyteller0910]

@storyteller0910

Before things start getting crazy in here this morning, is this:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

an accurate vote count as of this minute?

Obviously it’s not, because evidently I can’t count to three. Revised:

7- Queuing (kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
6- Pleonast (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Queuing, Suburban Plankton, Gadarene)
6- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Malacandra)
3- Pygmy Rugger (MTS, FCoD, Menocchio)
2- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)

[Gadarene]

If you and/or Queuing turn up town, I’m going to be immediately suspicious, along with everyone else who went along this scheme. If Pleonast turns up town, everyone on his bandwagon is going to look suspiscious.

Good. Because your aggressiveness in our exchanges has really rubbed me the wrong way, and it’s going to be great fun to either (1) make you look like an utter idiot or (2) out you as scum when I get lynched and come up vanilla townie…as I’ve been saying all along that I am.

[Queuing]

@JSexton

Thing is, you’d kinda have to be focusing on CaerieD already for this to be plausible that’d you’d have everything so handy. And again, if you were that focused on her specifically, I’d tend to believe that it’s because you killed her.

This is patently untrue. How hard do you think it is to look up info? Honestly, its not. Have you ever used ctrl-f? Do it, and tell me how long it takes you. If it takes you more the 15 minutes, well I don’t know, because it won’t.

@JSexton

You seem like you still don’t get it. ChrisK was suggesting that everyone make a similar post, as though, hypothetically, they were the cop. He then provided an example. It was not in an way a claim. Again: ChrisK did not claim cop.

You seem like you are bad at reading. I have never said I believe Chrisk to be a cop. You just disagree with me, fine. Then put your money where you mouth is, kill me and find out just how wrong you are.

@JSexton

The whole game is predicated on trying to understand what others are thinking. How does it hurt the town? When you are pursuing a lynch based on information that is likely to be false i.e., that CaerieD had a guilty on Blaster. Granted, I believed Blaster to be scum. But that wasn’t why.

Thanks for explaining the game to me. Again, can you explain why we would believe one thing from CaerieD and not another. How what you say must be true? You can’t. You just think it. You don’t know it. You can’t know it. Not unless you are scum.

[zuma]

@Gadarene

Good. Because your aggressiveness in our exchanges has really rubbed me the wrong way, and it’s going to be great fun to either (1) make you look like an utter idiot or (2) out you as scum when I get lynched and come up vanilla townie…as I’ve been saying all along that I am.

I’m glad you brought that up, because I’ve been back and forth over whether or not to apologize to you for being so aggressive.

To take myself completely out of game mode for a second, I’ve been very agressive towards you because I think it’s been the best way to win the game for my side. I hope you don’t take it personally and I’m sure we can kick back in the other thread soon enough. This is probably obvious to you but I want to make that clear. In the meantime I am looking forward to your imminent demise.

[Gadarene]

Apology accepted, particularly if you answer this question:

To take myself completely out of game mode for a second, I’ve been very agressive towards you because I think it’s been the best way to win the game for my side.

Which is your side, zuma?

[zuma]

Town, of course.

[FlyingCowOfDoom]

Unvote Pygmy Rugger.

After much consideration, I’m going to have to go with Queuing. I am inclined to believe Blaster Master, and I think we should give his plan a try. If it fails, he’s dead tomorrow. Vote Queuing.

Here’s a vote count:

(8) Queuing - (FlyingCowOfDoom, kivvik, StarvingButStrong, zuma, Pleonast, brewha, glee, Winston Smith)
(6) Pleonast - (Fern Forest, Fretful Porpentine, Kat, Suburban Plankton, Queuing, Gadarene)
(6) Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, Sturmhauke, Malacandra)
(2) Pygmy Rugger - (MadTheSwine, Menocchio)
(2) Blaster Master - (Lakai, hocow)
(1) Menocchio - (Autolycus)

–FCOD

[Winston_Smith]

@zuma

Town, of course.

Of course, there’s really only one way to find out…

[Gadarene]

Town, of course.

Then we’re on the same freaking side, you knucklehead. You really think the probability is that high that every one of my posts has been 100 percent subterfuge?