I realize that if they weren’t Masons, one of the true Masons would have outed them by now. Unless one does in the next few hours (which I don’t see happening), I now have confidence in them.
I think I understand what you’re saying. We don’t want the masons to out themselves early (unless they’re about to be lynched), because fewer confirmed townies means more targets for the mafia, which means less probability that they get a really important role like the doctor or detective. If they all out themselves right away, as was said, the mafia would be dumb to counter-claim; so the town knows they can be trusted, but now the mafia take the total players left and subtract who they know to be mafia and who they know to be masons, and they have a MUCH better chance of hitting the doctor or detective by chance than they would have without knowledge of the masons.
Thus, in early game, the mafia want to target unconfirmed townies to try to get the power roles by chance; in late game, they kill confirmed townies so that it leaves the town shooting in the dark for who the last one or two mafia are.
Did I address your question, or am I way off base?
[RP-Off] I’m back home. [RP-On]
Jesus H. Christ, dont’s any of youz guys got a job or shit? Fucking A man, if youz got nothing betters to do than talks for 7 straight hours abouts vague’s feelings you got going on in tha backs of your mind, then I got’s nothing to say.
This iz tha biggestest clusterfuck I’s seen since 'Nam.
Okay, I’m not going to be able to check for several hours, but Ishould still be able to check before the day ends. Anyway, it looks like the day is winding down. At this point I intend to target Winston tonight–with no conditionals–unless there is an outcry for me to do otherwise.
If the Serial Killer is still interested in helping the town at this point, I would suggest any of the other mafia potentials we discussed… maybe Aguecheek?
Well, I’ve re-read once more, and I’m afraid I don’t have any stunning conclusions to report(on the other hand, given my previous analysis record, this is probably a good thing). I have to warn you guys, though, that I find it hard that the Mafia would be so obviously working in concert like a lot of you seem to think. It’s too easy. The Mafia is just as smart as the rest of us; they realize that if they work together visibly, once we find one, we find them all. They’ll be on all sides of the debates. They’ll publicly trust townies and mistrust Mafia. They might even get on a bandwagon against a Mafioso hoping to get some trust out of that.
Anyway, the only things that a re-read got me were deep suspicions about Gadarene, Winston and PygmyRugger. I’m also not convinced about Blaster Master’s role claim.
Lynch Gadarene
Assassinate Winston Smith
What better than a job where we can spend the whole day racking our brains? 
Hmmm? Well, that’s an interesting thing to say, considering you are both the vigilante (supposedly) and the one driving that train.
You’re pushing this Gaderine/Winston thing pretty hard. Don’t you think it’s kind of stupid to put all your eggs in one basket like this? I mean, once you’ve orchestrated our deaths, everyone’s gonna know what’s what and who’s who. Then you’ll be screwed.
I guess we’ll know soon enough who’s scum. Won’t we?
Where’s the fun in that?
AAAAAAaaaaauuuuuugggghhhhhh!!!
(head explodes)
Rysto:
I’ll ask you what I asked nesta (who hasn’t answered so far). What have I done to raise your suspicions, and what can I do to assuage them? I would like the Town to be as little damaged by the upcoming lynching/gamenight as is reasonably possible, and I assure you—I assure you—that if you lynch me, you’ll be lynching a townie. So what did I do, and what can I do?
I’m largely in agreement with you. How are you feeling about Queuing? I can’t get over how scummy he was for the first 1200 posts or so, and yet how townie he’s seemed just recently.
Officially:
Lynch Gadarene
Vig Winston Smith
Jesus Pete… the thread is growing faster than I can read it. This game is going to get me fired. I hope future days are a little less action-packed because I’m going to have to stop reading at work if this keeps up.
I’m more confused than ever. I wish we hadn’t started the countdown again. That saves us what, fourteen hours? I think we all feel that it’s time to end this day, but that was going to happen anyway, and now I feel rushed trying to figure out what’s going on here.
Queuing has done a lot today to assuage my suspicion of him. It’s still not totally gone, but it’s almost leveled out with the way I feel about the majority of you. Gadarene really hasn’t, so I’m glad we switched votes. I still think that if Gadarene is lynched and is scum that we need to have Blaster Master take out Queuing because the chances of the two of them being aligned if either is scum is higher than any other possibility.
That leaves the target if Gadarene isn’t scum. I thought zuma was a good choice due to his strange behavior today, but that was before the mason claim. To me Winston Smith’s posts have seemed all over the place, so I don’t have a good idea where he really stands right now. I do know I’m not very comfortable with some of his theories, but honestly I was waiting to review this thread after the lynching before giving him a lot of thought. Do I think he’s likely scum if Gadarene isn’t? I have no idea. I need to give him and few others a lot more thought before casting my orange Vig kill vote.
Agreed, but clearly to get the bandwagon going, and especially the way it was so easily moving around, at least SOME of them were working together. Tomorrow, assuming this pans out as I expect, we’ll need to look hard at all of the bandwagons today (especially the ones against me and Pleonast).
Rightfully so, I don’t expect anyone to be completely convinced, especially not at this point. But, assuming Winston Smith is scum, I should at least be cleared of being mafia tonight. Then, if people are still unconvinced in the latter states of the game and if the SK hasn’t come up by accident by then, then I’m prepared to be lynched when the possibility that I’m the SK becomes more of a liability; the only argument you’ll get from me is if I think it’s too soon and I can still be of use.
Either way, it’s also clear the best thing for the mafia to do tonight is to aim for the SK, because if he dies, I lose my power and lose my ability to be a confirmed townie; or if I’m lying and they get the VIG, then they get a free night with no attempts on any mafia, because I’ll get lynched.
I also find it very entertaining that, when and if people look back at my posts after they’ve discovered that they’ve (shock!) lynched a townie, they’ll see that I’ve played this damn thing in absolutely straightforward fashion. No gaming, no strategy, just out-loud thinking and being completely clear about who I am and what I’m trying to do. Maybe that was the problem. 
How about another vote count for those folks playing at home?
1- Aguecheek (Queuing)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)
1- Pygmy Rugger (MTS)
2- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
2- Pleonast (Fretful Porpentine, Kat)
5- Queuing (StarvingButStrong, Fern Forest, glee, Malacandra, Gadarene)
14- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Storyteller0910, brewha, Pleonast, FCoD, zuma, Pygmy Rugger, Menocchio, Rysto, JSexton)
And I actually had a very productive day, work-wise (oddly enough).
Ahem. Now, where were we?
Oh, yes. You were railroading me.
Every time I look at this threaad, it’s another page longer. I’m not sure at this point that I’ll have time to read through all of the posts that I’ve missed before time runs out on whomever it is that’s currently in the lead. And right now, I honestly don’t know who that is. We seem to have a core of about six players that have monopolized the conversation over the past couple of (real-time) days. Unfortunately, there’s been so much finger-pointing back and forth that I’ve forgotten who is on which side of the arguments.
I’m going to head home and make an attempt at coming up with a rational vote before bed-time, although it seems that things may have already been decided. But who knows, maybe the Serial Killer and the Godfather will decide to claim their roles over dinner, just to add to the excitement. I just hope that between JSexton, Gadarene, Pleonast, Queueing, Blaster Master, and zuma, at least *one *of you is right, or we’re in big, big trouble.
Didn’t see your post Gadarene or I would have added a note before hitting submit.
I was planning to answer you, but forgot about it in the twist-double-twist-I’m-a-mason-and-so-is-he fest that’s been going on. I just now caught up on this thread and I’ve been reading it every free second I’ve had today since my last post. This is crazy.
My primary reason for suspecting you and Queuing is the breadcrumb logic you both used for lynching Blaster Master. I think the logic was bad, and in something akin to the “lynch all liars” approach, I thought you two were the most likely scum. I’ll give you post numbers where I lay all this out if you like, but I really haven’t had much of a chance to post to this thread, so they shouldn’t be hard to find.
As for what you did wrong? Look at how Queuing handled his defense of using the breadcrumb of suspicion, and then look at how you did. He pointed out that this wasn’t his primary argument, which I had actually already realized by reviewing the whole mess, and he gave other reasons why he suspected Blaster Master. I don’t recall you doing this, or if you did and I’ve forgotten now, they weren’t convincing. See my post to Queuing shortly before I switched my vote to you. I wasn’t really buying it from Queuing either, because I suspect scum can mount a solid defense as well as anyone. I switched my vote from him to you because his defense of using it was reasonable, and yours wasn’t, and I wanted my vote to be on the person I suspected the most.
The breadcrumb theory was flawed, yet you both defended it time and time again. That’s why I still think we lynch scum tonight.
What can you do? I’ll be proven right or wrong tonight. If I’m right I’ll feel really good about myself for being so perceiving in picking out scum through their bad arguments. If I’m wrong I’ll feel bad for the town that we lost a civilian, but I’ll stand by the fact that you were the best choice in this whole mess.
If by some miracle you avoid a lynching tonight and have all day tomorrow to convince me and the rest of the town that you are one of us, the only way I’ll be convinced is if you can show me where you used good, logical arguments to back up your vote today, and are willing to reevaluate the bad arguments. You may think you’ve already done that, but you’re on the block for a reason.
I don’t think I owed you this explanation, because I’ve already given it before when I switched my vote. I’m doing it because even if you are scum, we’re playing a game here, and I hope there are no hard feelings. I offer this post as advice if you play WW/Mafia again so that you don’t get lynched quite so soon.
Me too!
I am here for another 2 hours (ish) and then I am heading to a Seder and won’t be able to check in again until tomorrow morning. They day will probably be over by then. If there is any more activity I will post a final post count before I leave. Remember 1am PST is the end of the day unless some massive unvoting happens.
I will end the night as soon as I get all the votes in. You can start PMing me with night votes as soon at it hits 1am PST if you already know who you will vote for, but (unless I am really wide awake tonight) I will probably not post the lynch results until tomorrow at about 8 or 9 am.
Yep, you sure articulated it alot better than I did, though.