Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1681

Krikey! Dawn already?!? I thought I’d at least get to take this evening off, and maybe even have a chance to concentrate on work tomorrow. But, duty calls…
Sorry Winston. Hey, at least we finally got one!

According to my notes, **nesta **cast a vote for **Queuing **yesterday, then rescinded it and voted for Gadarene. He also was suspicious of **Pleonast **and **chrisk/JSexton **early in the day. I have nothing of interest noted for him on Day 1.

Hmmm…not much to go on there. Maybe a reread will uncover something I missed.

1682

Ok, here is what I have to say.

I agree that we need to shut the hell up. This “we” BTW is:

Queuing
Blaster Master
Zuma
Pleonast

Face it. We were ALL wrong. I don’t buy the whole conspiracy thing posted by poor Winston. Namely because I know I am not Mafia. I also believe in Zuma and Pleonast now. If they aren’t Masons then the real masons are complete maroons.

BM killed who it was agreed upon for him to kill. I agree that he lead the charge, and he now has 4 town kills on his hands (Captain Carrot, CaerieD, Gadarene and Winston). I didn’t want to kill Winston, but I didn’t scream about. This was mostly due to fatigue to arguing with all you for like 3 days or whatever. However I did TRY to change the plan, here
It didn’t work.

Also in that link above, I provided a list of people who have said nothing so far. Here it is again for ease:

Sturmhauke 10 posts
Fretful Porcupine 13 posts
StarvingbutStrong 13 posts
Smitty 13 posts
Hocow 14 posts
Kivvik 14 posts
AguaCheek 18 posts
ArizonaTeach 19 posts

The post count is no longer correct, however it isn’t like one is posting a lot all of a sudden.

In this post Autolycus also finds it odd that these people have hardly said a thing.

So I then take a look at the first day votes:

DAY 1 votes

10 votes- Enfant Terrible (ArizonaTeach, BlasterMaster, FCOD, Gadarene, Malacandra, Pleonast, Storyteller0910, pimaspinner, cowgirl, Winston Smith)
4 votes -Sturmhauke – (Queuing, , CaerieD, Aguecheek, Fernforest)
Unvoted: (Menecchio)
4 votes - Queuing - Lakai, Fretful Porpentine, Zuma, Menecchio
2 votes -glee - Smitty, Suburban Plankton
2 votes -Autolycus – (Enfant Terrible, glee)
Unvoted him ( FCOD, Gadarene, malacandra)
1 vote - Chrisk - MadTheSwine
1 vote- Aguecheek – Sturmhauke
1 vote - Gadarene – Rysto

This is what I have at least. Look at who voted for Enfant. 5 of them are confirmed town (assuming we believe all role claims, as this has been my strategy since the beginning it isn’t changing now <because its been working great so far>). Leaving these people:

ArizonaTeach
Storyteller0910
pimaspinner
FCOD
Malacandra

So day 2 votes (final ones)

1- Aguecheek (Queuing)
1- Menocchio (Autolycus)
1- Pygmy Rugger (MTS)
2- Blaster Master (hocow, Lakai)
2- Pleonast (Fretful Porpentine, Kat)
5- Queuing (StarvingButStrong, Fern Forest, glee, Malacandra, Gadarene)

14- Gadarene (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Storyteller0910, brewha, Pleonast, FCoD, zuma, Pygmy Rugger, Menocchio, Rysto, JSexton)

Before that it was this:

12- Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, Storyteller0910, brewha, Pleonast, FCoD, zuma, Pygmy Rugger, Menocchio)
Menocchio (Autolycus)
7- Queuing - (StarvingButStrong, Fern Forest, glee, Winston Smith, Malacandra, Gadarene, JSexton)
2- Pleonast - (Fretful Porpentine, Kat)
2- Pygmy Rugger - (MTS)
2- Blaster Master - (hocow, Lakai)
1- Aguecheek - (Queuing)
1- Zuma - (pimaspinner)

and before that it was this:

(9) Gadarene - (Smitty, Blaster Master, nesta, ArizonaTeach, sturmhauke, storyteller0910, brewha, Pleonast, FlyingCowOfDoom)
(8) Queuing - (StarvingButStrong, glee, Winston Smith, Pygmy Rugger, Malacandra, Gadarene, Fern Forest, JSexton)
(3) Pleonast
(2) Blaster Master
(2) Pygmy Rugger
(1) Menocchio
(1) Zuma
So the correlation between these leads me to:

FCOD
ArizonaTeach
StoryTeller0910

Of these I find FCOD the most suspicious.

I also wonder about those who just didn’t vote on day 1. This is:

Autolycus
Brewha
Chrisk/Jsexton
Hocow
Kat
Kivvik
MonkeyMensch
Pygmy Rugger
StarvingButStrong.

Brewha I wonder about here. He voted for BM, then for me, then Gadarene. I haven’t done it yet, but I would be willing to bet that he also was willing to Assassinate Zuma. Just kept on jumping on bandwagons.

I also have some suspicions of MonkeyMensch. This is due to his actions on page 29 until the night begins. I just think it seems that S/He is acting in concert with Nesta. As well, no voting on day 1, and voted on the bandwagons day 2.

However, I don’t feel like driving another bandwagon. So I ain’t casting a vote yet. What I would like to see happen is the closest to confirmed townies (Zuma/Pleonast) cast the first stone. If they are masons (and I think they are), they have better odds then any other townie. I am assuming that there are 5 masons, 8 Mafia, 1 sk, 1 vig, 2 millers, 1 GA and 1 doc as well as 2 beat cops left… This totals 23. We have 28 (I think) left. There aren’t many Vanilla’s left. I want to hear what someone who has a 5/28 chance has to say. After that, I suggest us 4 shut the fuck up.

My scum list:

Brewha
MonkeyMensch
Aguecheek
FCOD

Its not complete, but that is my top 4 mobster suspects.

Speak up those who haven’t. Let us judge you. If not we may have to start lynching on the horrible lurker strategy.

1683

I am wrong here. It actually totals 21. I did the math to get 23, then remembered that 1 mason and 1 mafia had been killed. Hence it should be 21. Sorry about that.

1684

Queuing, Let me explain why I voted for who I did. I voted BM because he posted way too much to be a vanilla townie. I have since posted that I understand that the Vig would need to post as much as they can to feel out the SK. I unvoted him after his claim.

I did vote for you because it was a bandwagon and it would help move the day along. BUT, after reading into your posts I lost confidence that you were indeed scum. That is why I unvoted you.

As for Gadarene, it seemed to me that he was on the opposite side as you. If you weren’t Mafia then that meant that he is. Since he is not, where does that put you?

1685

Oof, I’s was sweatin’ slug’s there for a while. Okz, I’m off to do sum manly karaoke.

1686

Well thanks but I’m fairly certain that dead people don’t get to strategize. They say Goodbye and head to the great forbidden thread in the sky.
So we finally got one. So maybe this wont matter yet but I thought of it last night and maybe it will matter later. The Mafia have to be careful that they don’t take a majority while the SK is still alive. If we do really poorly then the Mafia may have to start sacrificing their worst players to the lynch in order to prevent taking the majority and losing. Anyway I thought was funny. I hope it wont come to that though but it would be funny.

1687

Man, why do you people keep lying about my posts…it hasn’t been 19 since like forever! (I know, I know…kidding). In any case, I explained twice my reasons for wanting to lynch Gadarene, once early on before he was even a major target, and second when I wanted to re-explain when the bandwagon started. The problem was, and I see this now, it was a personal thing…I thought that I personally was being called out, and zeroed in on that, thinking a trap was being set. Definitely a mistake there. Tragically, the other person I was 100% sure was scum turned out to be Winston Smith, whose madman ravings may not have been so mad. And then there’s nesta…ga-whu?
Anyway, I’m getting married in…looks at watch…three days. So please forgive me if my posts fall behind town average…

1688

Hmm, the prevalent thinking was that Gadarene and I were on the same side. Interesting…
ArizonaTeach yeah, I was lazy, and didn’t want to grab all that info again. I did say the actual number was wrong, yet the idea was the same. Regardless, congratulations on your impending end of…I mean beginning of a great new chapter in life.
(See? I told you I can’t shut up)

1689

11 dopers played in both games. 4 have been confirmed town. 1 is very likely town. If we had 9 scum to start then the town was 24% scum.

The odds are that those 11 dopers also have that same percentage. That would mean that there are 2 or 3 scum there. Rounded either way from 2.6 scum.

If we take off the 4 dead townies and the 1 presumed townie we’re left with 6 still playing. I’m ignoring **JSexton **for this.

If there were 2 in that group then 33% of those 6 are scum. If 3 then 50%

Of course this would work for any randomly generated group.

15 players have usernames that start with A through G. Figuring 8 scum that group had 3 or 4 (rounded from 3.6) scum. Six are now confirmed by death and 1 is suspected to not be scum. This leaves 8 remaining in that group. If there were 3 then of those 8 remaining 38% are scum. If there were 4 then 50% are scum.

Good old odds. They tell you what’s most likely given an infinte amount of games but can always screw you over with one flip.

1690

Sorry I forgot **glee **in the count of that last bit. There were 16 players with names begining with A through G

1691

And of course that changes the percentages I made. Anyway you get my point. It’s not extremely helpful but isn’t exactly nothing either.

1692

Could day 1 have pasted without mafia voting for the lynched townie? I say we give **Zuma **and Pleonast the first choice from this list.

1693

So, I went back to look over what I’d mentioned about this, and these are my results. Since I wasted the time to do this, I’m posting the results, in case they help anyone.

People who argued with zuma over Blaster Master having a choice in his target. (Note: This does not include people who argued with him about whather Blaster would know the lynchee’s role before submitting his target, nor people who voted to lynch or assassinate zuma, only those who posted that Blaster had no choice in the target.)
Queuing 10 times
Gadarene 3 times
Pygmy Rugger 1 definite, 1 unclear
Malacandra 1 time
Storyteller 1 time
Lakai 1 time
MonkeyMensch 1 time

Note 2: The first time I went back, I had written brewha and pimaspinner on the list I was starting. When I went back the second time, I decided to count the posts related to the argument, and ended up without those names on the second list. Either I was looking at the wrong names the first time, or I missed their posts on the matter the second time.

People on the above list who posted after Blaster Master suggested Winston Smith as a target:
Queuing
Gadarene
Pygmy Rugger
MonkeyMensch
Storyteller
Lakai
Malacandra

The one who posted the most after Blaster’s suggestion? Gadarene, now a proven townie, with 10 posts. This makes me doubt that the issue will reveal anything, but since I mentioned I was doing it, and did the work, I decided to post the results anyway, in case anyone was wondering.

Other Notes:
Lakai was the only one to address the “choice” issue.
It’s entirely possible that the people who chimed in later with just one post just wanted the argument to end and stop cluttering up the thread. :wink:

1694

I’m happy to speak up.

…

No day 1 vote: I was caught out by the speed of the lynch on day 1. Checked in on #476 with the ET vote numbering 7 and came back to find night had fallen by #501. More than a few of us were surprised at the speed of that day.

Voted on Bandwagons: I voted brewha, aguecheek, queuing (unvoting you as the Masons came out and we scrambled to stop the clock) and finally queuing again because Gadarene was in my I-don’t-know area, and I was sick of the way the whole test and strategy had blown up into a gigantic… well, you know what.
Those three players made up my entire suspect list posted #1025, which is where I voted aguecheek. Those aguecheek and brewha bandwagons you’re talking about were pretty lonesome, I can tell you. I was alone or had one other person for company.

Plotting with nesta: I’ll just cut and paste my actions from page 29 until nightfall.

I’m now going to read with the new knowledge in mind, and I’m happy to be up front with my suspects.

1695

Can I say first of all how pathetic it is that we are celebrating what is most likely the Serial Killer’s work as “our” victory? :o
Lotsa snipping in the following quote, just cutting it down to the parts I can directly reply to:

Okay, my pathetic vote count is majorly due to not having access to the internet during work. After an 8-10 hour stretch away it’s about all I can do to catch up on the zillions of posts the rest of you have made and MAYBE make a post or two of my own.

Sorry that I’m not contributing more…but on the other hand, given that I’ve been wrong about just about everything/everyone so far, it’s probably a boon to the town that I don’t have time to post more. :frowning:

My not voting the first day was a result of no work access and then the tremendous speed with which the first lynching took place. I don’t recall exactly, but I don’t think anyone had even five votes at the time I went to work. And there were DAYS left in the first Day, so I figured there was no need to cast a vote until I’d had a chance to reread and cogitate some. However, by the time I got home Enfant had acquired 10 votes, been lynched, and we were well into night.

BTW, the list you label as yesterday’s final one isn’t correct. After I got home and found the world had turned topsy turvey I did my best to catch up, and late at night I posted my wonderful reasoning (#1558) for why I was then convinced that Queuing was in fact innocent and Gadarene mafia. In that post I unvoted Q and voted G, and also voted for BM not to kill Q.

The best thing I can say about that post in the light of what’s come since is that at least it came late enough in the ‘day’ that it probably didn’t have a lot to do with misleading others.
And that’s all I can offer as explanation. In all likelihood, my posts/day count will remain low until the weekend. If that gets me on people’s ‘suspected scum’ lists… <shrug> there’s not much I can do about that. I have to work, I have to sleep, and I have household/family duties, and reading and posting to this game will have to fit in around those other things.

1696

Queuing, it’s been a rarity, but I agree with you. What happened yesterday were a bunch of flared tempers and lots of unclear thinking. I also agree with the reasoning that the mafia saw many of the prominent posters, who are all townies, arguing and knew that we would eventually point the FoS at eachother and get one of us lynched.

Here are some lessons I learned from yesterday:

  1. From Gadarene and Winston Smith’s death. What is bad logic in my mind is not necessarily a scum tell.

  2. We have at least three confirmed townies: Pleonast, Zuma, and Menocchio (unless he’s the GF, but should still be treated as confirmed unless it’s late and we still haven’t found the GF yet).

  3. If the doctor protected me last night, then at least he’s 100% sure I’m not mafia. If he protected himself, we’re in for a world of hurt.

  4. Those of us who have been loud and over indulging in the game have either, A, drowned out the real scum and their tells, or B, are playing into their hand by pointing fingers at eachother.

  5. An extention of 4, we need to shut up and hold the lower posting players accountable. From now, I will try to reduce my post count AND my content; I would prefer to fewer high content posts.

  6. Because of the suspicion about my targets, I recommend this as the new VIG target plan. A, Everyone votes in Dark Orange (please no more conditionals unless we’re trying to break up apparent factions), B, I will abstain from voting until it seems the town has generally agreed I’ve proven I am both not mafia and not the SK, C, if there is a tie among top vote getters, a confirmed townie (ie, Pleonast or Zuma), can use random.org to select my target, D, if we think we have the SK, please do not lynch him; let me target him at night.

  7. Since we have two confirmed masons, as was also recommended by Queuing, I would prefer they start with the FoS pointing, particularly at the lower post count players. Here’s a list of people of whom I’m particularly suspicious (in no particular order, except for hocow), but I will still leave it up to them if they agree with this list or not:
    hocow (my #1 suspicion of being SK, and if not SK, then probably mafia)
    ArizonaTeach
    Flying Cow of Doom
    MonkeyMensch
    Malacandra
    Aguecheek
    Pygmy Rugger
    brewha    .

If I missed anyone on that list with a low post count, or just generally suspicious… have at it.
I will not add anymore analysis until Zuma and/or Pleonast have laid out a few of their suspicions.

1697

Ok, since it’s daytime again, I have to ask: Why am I your number one SK suspect? In fact, I had made it known that I suspected you of having that role. Since the VIG and SK have the same powers with different roles, it’s possible that I was erring on the side of pegging someone as scum, and that you are the VIG. One thing from yesterday that I want explained is this:

I know it was touched upon, but I don’t recall being completely sastisfied with the answer. How could you have known who else was going to die? I’m reading this to mean that you knew CaerieD was going to die. The only way you could know this is if you killed her. (Right? Did I miss something?) And you’re defending Queuing’s survival as a strategy of your to keep yourself hidden. Again, how could you know who everyone else was targeting at night?

As far as trusting, I trust the confirmed townies, and possibly Queuing. I say possibly because I did belive that he and Gaudarene were in cahoots, but it could have been a clever mafia strategy to team up with a townie. I need to re-read a bit before touching that one further.

1698

You agree that you need to shut the hell up, but then you turn right around and say that some of us are too quiet? It’s only been 4 hours since Day 3 started, for fuck’s sake. Excuse me if I don’t feel the need to yell my damn fool head off.

Yeah, let’s see, who said that strategy was horrible? Oh yeah, I did.

Look, here’s the events of yesterday as I saw them. I was suspicious of you and Gadarene mainly because you were pushing quite strenuously on people for essentially no solid reason. I also think that Blaster Master, Pleonast, and zuma were forced to claim as a direct result of your actions. As I said in the last thread, Masons are most useful to the town if they can survive until the endgame and only reveal themselves at that time, which is mostly what happened.

As of right now, I’m most suspicious of Pygmy Rugger. These are his votes yesterday: JSexton, Blaster Master, Pleonast, Queuing, Gadarene. Basically, he was pinging around all the bandwagons, hoping to get one of them moving too fast to stop.

1699

Well, I can’t help but think we had a pretty good candidate at the beginning of day 2. We then became confused and side-tracked. I tried a few times later in the day to try to shine the spotlight back on JSexton/chrisk, but too many trains had left the station and were heading towards inevetable doom.

I had planned to offer an argument that he should have been the vig target, but wasn’t able to get back until the Winston decision had been made.

There is so much re-reading to do, but a few thoughts:

chrisk/JSexton proposed the cop-outing scheme, after chrisk/JSexton had pointed out the obvious flaws in the original werewolf observation thread.

chrisk/JSexton was the only person who voted against the cooling off period. Nobody but scum would be for that, and his defense was preposterous. He voted against it due to fucking up with the cop-outing scheme on day one, and not wanting to rock the boat any more. So he votes against what everyone else is posting that they are in favor of? If he was so gun-shy, why offer an opinion at all, much less one that everyone disagrees with.

After chrisk left the game, JSexton told us he’d take a day to read, then be back with his thoughts. MY thought at the time was how he was going to address the chrisk situation. He never addressed it. He returned with analysis on a lot of players, but not the one who drew the most attention at the beginning of day 2: his predecessor chrisk.

He’s struck me as happy to pop in and offer strategy advice (some of it I find quite flawed, like the vig being a negative thing for the town), but happy to just let the various bandwagons careen out of control all the while everyone forgets about who I think is the best candidate we’ve had to date.

I went hardest after Queuing, pimaspinner, and eventually Gadarene over what I felt was an orchestrated effort on their part to take the spotlight off of chrisk/JSexton and put it on Blaster Master, when I should have been going after chrisk/JSexton themselves.

I’m going back trying to find a previous post of mine, and just found this by Gadarene, who it looks like was not a big chrisk/JSexton fan either in 1297:
<might as well keep her voice in the game, as long as it’s not all the parts where she was hurling invectives at me> :slight_smile:

spot on, Gadarene.

This post by JSexton bugged me the most. He is apparently a very experienced player, and advocates killing the SK as soon as possible. This means we lose the vig. Now, I’m a relatively new player, but this logic just seems flawed to me. I just cannot see an experienced player making this recommendation.

I think starvingbutstrong picked up on this too…

Anyway, I’ll be doing a re-read, but I just wonder why the fuck the town completely gave up on what I think was one of its stronger targets.

1700

Oh, and vote: JSexton just to get the ball rolling.