Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1701

A few posts in particular really pegged me as SK:

In post 350, you said:

This was contrary to the general consensus of the thread, and was virtually an echoing of a post I’d made a bit earlier. It pinged me as peculiar that a townie would have had the exact same predicament I had, unless you had actually been forced through the thought process yourself of feeling guilty for ending someone’s chance to play before the game even really started.

In post 694, you’re VERY particular about pegging me as SK. You seem keen on the fact that I had a night kill role, but you skim over the possibility that that could mean mafia, and even completely ignore that I could be the VIG.

Similarly, in post 725, you’re again VERY particular about picking me out as the SK and wanting to lynch me. I, infact, knew that the VIG had targetted CaerieD, because, well, I’m the VIG. Then, in a strange twist of logic, you think being the SK is a good reason to lynch me. When it is, in fact, in the best interest of the town to let the VIG kill the SK at night so we can both lose the SK AND gain a confirmed townie.
I understand why I would be suspected of having a killing role as I was very deliberate in leaving crumbs to make my role apparent to A, in hopes the town would pick up, particularly the doctor, and help guide my decisions, and B, in hopes that the SK would pick up the scent and make accusations that I was the SK, to either deflect blame or hopefully get the town to take me out.

Only two people picked up on that publicly prior to my role claim, and that was you and JSexton; however, you were far more blatant about driving that point home. That leads me to believe either A, you’re the SK, pinned me as the VIG, and thus were trying to get me lynched, or B, you’re mafia, and pinned me as either the VIG or SK, and thus wanted me lynched for obvious reasons.

My theory, at the time I made the recommendation, as it seemed much of the town agreed with, was that the SK would be attempting to kill mafia because it would shorten the game thus maximizing his survivability. Seeing that I posted a recommendation, on the possibility that the SK would follow my advice, it would have looked VERY suspicious that both my VIG and SK requested targets had died. Further, by the end of the day, I was actually more suspicious of **CaerieD ** than I was of Queuing. So, I targetted CaerieD hoping that I would ensure one of the people of whom I was most suspicious was dead AND, in the off chance that the SK agreed with my advice, it would minimize the impact of my statement as damning VIG/SK evidence.

Thus, after the kills were revealed, I felt somewhat vindicated, because the cowgirl target made little sense as an SK target, so I assumed the SK had in fact listened to me and we double targetted. Although, it could be that the SK was already suspicious of me, and had targetted me and the doctor was protecting me… but I really don’t have any idea who the doctor targetted the second night, so that’s just supposing.

Are you satisfied with my explanation? I can’t imagine you are, but that is the way it went through my head and that’s the best I can offer.

1702

You missed my vote for you. Right before I chided you for misspelling my name.

I spoke up regarding my vote for sturmhauke here. The same person for whom you voted on Day One.

So you’re skipping over my final vote for you, then call on me to explain my previous behaviour, including the time I voted the same as you. And then imply that you base your entire suspicion on the fact that I’m not posting as much as you. Is there a reason behind this? Or in your eagerness to show how much information you’ve gathered, have you just missed a bunch of stuff in your massive post? The one in which sturmhauke correctly points out you were calling on yourself to slow down?

I get an hour to read through this thread at lunch, and maybe an hour/half-hour in the evenings after rehearsals, grocery shopping and weeding the lawn. I apologize if I can’t boost my posting to this thread, but I’ve put in what I can. The rules prior to joining this game were posting at least three times during the “day.” I think I’ve done that, and if you like, I’ll go back and check.

But in the meantime, I’d really like you to explain why you insist on lumping me in with all your “scum.” A list that I’m currently more inclined to believe is town now that I see how you’re only posting information that points away from you.

1703

{Coloring removed to avoid confusion.}

I agree, and I meant to mention JSexton in my previous post about of whom I’m suspicious. After consideration, especially with my response to hocow, he’s actually highly suspicious to me as well. He WAS very quick to peg me as the SK, and again mention I should be lynched, when it makes MORE sense to let the SK be hit at night by the VIG. Further, at this point because we’re so far behind, I agree that both the SK and especially the VIG are still to the towns advantage.

To reitterate, I thought JSexton was a reasonable conditional choice for Gadarene’s status conditional, but it didn’t seem many agreed, and tended to go toward Winston Smith; a mafia plot with the knowledge that is one of them?

I agree that he has some ‘splainin’ to do, but I’m not prepared to vote. In fact, I think he’d make a better night target for me than a lynching target precisely because I think there’s a remote chance that he’s the SK (sorry, hocow, I’m still more suspicious of you on that front:)).

At the very least, we can conclude that by you pointing the FoS at him, he’s definitely not a mason. But, is he a beat cop…? I can’t say.

1704

Christ almightydamn. That was nowhere near as eloquent as it sounded in my head.

Try this:

  1. You skipped where I voted for you.
  2. You call on me to explain my previous behaviour when it was posted right to this thread, soon after JSexton posted his analysis. Where I explained why I voted the way I did…and why I voted the same as you.
  3. Then you call on my to explain my lurking. I’m not lurking, I’m trying to keep up with this thing as much as possible, but that’s not going to happen if you keep posting these huge screeds.

If you’re trying to imply that your analysis and posts are so much more valuable then mine and therefore you are much more likely to be town than I, then I’d say you’d best do a better job of researching before you point the finger and scream “j’accuse!”

1705

And lastly…lastly!

I apologize if that was heated. It shouldn’t have been, but I’m quite annoyed at being singled out merely because I don’t post as much in a thread that is commonly agreed to be fucking huge and fast.

My apologies Queuing, and I won’t even pretend to notice that you poured half that Cristal into the planter.

1706

Can you believe it? I just sped read the thread from page 5! It’s a much easier read with some of the roles known.

I suggest folks take a look at page 31. Nesta lumps queuing in with gadarene for suspicion in posts #1518 and #1526. I now have queuing off my scum list. Unfortunately, I have no one on it! My quick read of yesterday’s game day sure looked like one thing though: a big-ass townie fight with the scum sitting back, as has been speculated, laughing.

Scum list in the morning.

1707

Just the one point here: the SK wins according to his own criterion, which is that if the game ends by the normal rules and the SK is still alive, he wins instead and both the scum and the town lose. At this point it probably benefits the murdering s.o.b. to target town to speed the probable scum win (unless there really are very few scum) since he gets to steal it. I realize that I am giving the SK strategy tips but it is elementary game theory to assume that he already knows all this.

I personally am unhappy with the SK loose-cannoning all over the place; I’m not sure the vig kill necessarily compensates. I’d argue for wasting the SK by any means necessary (might as well be the vig who does it so as not to waste a lynch) and settling the scum by lynching them. I’m all in favour of keeping the vig alive as a confirmed townie, of course, and I agree that while he lasts he should act under orders, but getting rid of the SK would more than compensate us for loss of the vig kill.

Incidentally another possibility from last night is that BM is not the vig, in which case the scum killed Winston Smith to preserve his cover. Knowing him not to be scum, they’ve no problem with that. That would entail a hit by the real vig or the SK on nesta, and either successful doctor intervention, or both of the loose cannons hitting the same target, or the SK taking a night off. I hardly think that the Angel wasted his one-shot power out of hand. This may be an unlikely scenario, but let’s not discount it altogether.

1708

Font color?

Hit hocow

1709

One down, some odd (or even?) number to go! But… one of us down as well. Sorry Winston Smith. I didn’t add much to the grind against you, but I did add a little.

Alright, since we’re playing the ‘Pick on the Lurkers’ game. I don’t post as much, because as mentioned before, I don’t have the time. What point is my posting a comment on like 7-8 pages of the same group of people bickering? I figured I might as well go cast pebbles into a raging river. Alas, I could not find a river of such magnitude, so I tossed some gravel into a ditch of rainwater and called it even.

I only have one more day of night shift, and then I will post more, as the posts might actually be relevant, as opposed to coming hours after the argument has shifted to soemthing else.

Sorry for the minor amounts of vitriol there, but I’m doing my best to keep up with my schedule. I don’t want to get lynched/VIGged/SKed simply because I don’t meet an arbitrary rule thought up by someone looking for lynch bait.

That said, I’m sure there might be some scum in those lists. Just as there’s innocents there too.

But, on with the useful stuff!

Queuing is effectively townified to me. I originally voted for him to have a vote that was in no danger of bandwagonning, as I wanted the day to be long, which is also why I unvoted him later on, to stop the countdown. My voting post: here
It is still strange that he went from reviled to revered so quickly though.
It is my only vote, as the first day blew past me. I went to bed with Enfant at 2 votes, he was dead by the time I woke up and finished reading what had been posted. One of the reasons why I was in favor of the countdown timer, along with it being good sense.

Gadarene had mistrust all over the place, and I’ll be looking at their posts more in-depth now that we know what we know. It is unfortunate that so many people voted in that particular case.

Also who said what concerning Winston Smith. Um, well, I did call for him to be the VIG target. Frankly, I had asked his new opinions on those he railed against Here but never got a reply. Although I’ve not had many replies at all to any of my posts, so not really surprised. And the day was moving all crazy. I apologize if I started the ball rolling onto you, but you were rather bloodthirsty and suspicious of those we had chosen to trust.

I really want to see more posts about last night’s killings, but it’s almost 4am here :mad: Somebody somewhere was protected, or the scum were blocked. I fear the first, applaud the second.

The only person I’m suspicious of at the moment is glee, just because they dumped on the idea of Autolycus being useful, and look who came in with his own big post of his ideas? Granted, it may be the same old list of gut feelings that haven’t helped us in the past, but it’s something. But regardless of accuracy, I don’t approve of suggesting anyone as the doctor. We don’t want you to be right, and the mafia decide to give it a shot and risk losing them.

While JSexton has been wrong in some of his initial feelings, I am still quite interested in his thoughts on the matter, and the likelihood of the two reasons there were only the two kills. Well, three if the GA thought this was an oppurtune time to go for broke.

I agree with the call for less posting with a higher information ratio. You’ll see us ‘casual’ players pop up more often just because we can actually keep up, and the town’ll calm down and think more clearly. I don’t think anyone who matters( scum can go… do something allowable in MPSIMS) wants another massive chat-fight.

1710

Would the real VIG not have hit BM then in such a case? Knowing BM to be false, he/she would be silly to let BM keep fooling us and sniping our forces.

1711

Um, that whole Doctor thing…?

1712

Gawd, I knew I was missing something. Something obvious.

1713

Sure. We’re assuming the Doctor covered Blaster Master’s back last night (we do not want confirmation of this :eek: ) which would have kept him alive whether the Mafia voted to rub him out or either the SK or the “real” vig targeted him. I’m happy with the working hypothesis that BM is what he says he is, but just issued the caveat so we don’t spend the rest of the game overlooking the possibility that he isn’t.

I’m still no wiser as to who might be scum though. Trawling this thread for what our only confirmed mafioso said, I’ve seen nothing but what a helpful townie might have posted in good faith. Oof. However, I’m quite a n00b at this game.

1714

[QUOTE=Malacandra]

Incidentally another possibility from last night is that BM is not the vig, in which case the scum killed Winston Smith to preserve his cover. Knowing him not to be scum, they’ve no problem with that.

[QUOTE]

BM may well be the SK, but I don’t think the SK or Vig knows the identities of townies. I think just mafia does. I could be wrong, and if I am someone please correct me.

1715

AFAIK you are right[sup]1[/sup] - the point was that the mafia knew Winston was not scum and would be happy to kill him if necessary, were BM actually a mafioso, in order to make it look like BM was the vig acting under orders.

[sup]1[/sup] It would be grossly over-powerful to have either of these know who was scum and who was town - the vig could win it for the town by himself…!

1716

[QUOTE=zuma]

[QUOTE=Malacandra]

Incidentally another possibility from last night is that BM is not the vig, in which case the scum killed Winston Smith to preserve his cover. Knowing him not to be scum, they’ve no problem with that.

Nevermind… you’re saying he may be mafia, not sk. A failure to kill two nights in a row is odd. I’ve been assuming that a miller is blocking either the sk or vig. I question every assumption lately.

1717

Could be. The possibilities are:
[ol]BM is the vig and offed Winston, as instructed. The mafia kill (probably BM) was blocked. The SK killed nesta
[li]**BM ** is scum. Scum killed **Winston ** to preserve his cover. A loose cannon killed nesta. A miller has successfully blocked a loose cannon twice in a row (lucky the first time), or the Doctor protected someone successfully - possibly but not necessarily himself.[/li][li]not going there[/ol][/li]
Option 1 involves, I think, fewer ad hoc assumptions and lucky coincidences, so I suggest we consider it true for now.

1718

That would indeed be a bold move by BM, if he is mafia. I know I got a lot of heat yesterday for talking about BM’s “choice”, but honestly I meant town-approved choice… a list of town-approved people he could choose from. Re-reading, BM was leading the discussion of what he was going to do too much.

I think next time (and god knows I’ve made a lot of mistakes in this game and trusting MB too much may be one of them), BM should not be proposing scenarios and conducting vote counts at all.

I propose when the time comes, Pleonast will handle all Blaster-Master action proposals and voting, if Pleonast is agreeable to this.

1719

ChrisK, and by extension JSexton, was very suspicious to me, as well. I’d be happy to consider him for lynching today.

But I will say that I agree with his logic about the SK and the Vig. They are, at best, distant seconds to the town lynch. Losing them will extend the game, which helps the town.

1720

A bold move, yes, but in this scenario BM’s head is on the block already and it does his side no harm to postpone his lynching for a day and maybe get a townie lynched instead (as unfortunately happened), and if the town pick BM a victim who is himself town then so much the better for the scum, whose fake vig gets to put his hands up and say “Sorry, town, I obeyed orders - too bad it didn’t work out but tomorrow’s another day, eh?”.

Against that, the likeliest explanation for last night’s kill pattern is that the SK took down nesta and a mafia kill of BM (or the Doctor) got blocked. It’d be funny if they’d targeted someone at random and just happened to be millered out of it as they’d now be thinking they’d found the self-protecting Doctor, but the single biggest probability has to be that the Doctor covered BM and is himself still unknown - which is how we want it.