Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1721

[QUOTE=Menocchio]
ChrisK, and by extension JSexton, was very suspicious to me, as well. I’d be happy to consider him for lynching today.

But I will say that I agree with his logic about the SK and the Vig. They are, at best, distant seconds to the town lynch. Losing them will extend the game, which helps the town.
[/QUOTE]

Emphatically yes. Random kills are as likely to hurt us as help. The longer we go on, the more the scum get drawn into arguments and sooner or later get caught in lies. I personally would vote to spare the vig if he disobeyed orders and killed the SK - the unfortunate thing is, I’d be calling for his head as loudly as anyone if he ignored orders and still didn’t kill the SK!

1722

What nonsense that was. If the vig kills the SK he becomes known town so there’s no question of “sparing” him! :smack:

1723

We really ought not to assume that the mafia chose BM last night. They knew as well as we did that BM was likely doc-protected. This would have led them to choose another target, possibly the same target that they had blocked against them the previous night.

Of course, they might have figured that the doc knew that too and figured the doc would try to flank them that way and gone for BM.

Or BM is scum the real Vig killed Nesta and the SK held her fire.

All I’m saying is that we ought not to read much into the mafia’s apparent failure last night. The only people with a clue as to what happened are the mafia and doc.

1724

[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch]
Can you believe it? I just sped read the thread from page 5! It’s a much easier read with some of the roles known.

I suggest folks take a look at page 31. Nesta lumps queuing in with gadarene for suspicion in posts #1518 and #1526. I now have queuing off my scum list. Unfortunately, I have no one on it! My quick read of yesterday’s game day sure looked like one thing though: a big-ass townie fight with the scum sitting back, as has been speculated, laughing.

Scum list in the morning.
[/QUOTE]

I’d just like to point out that you (generic you) shouldn’t take Queuing totally off the suspicion list. Mafia’s been pretty sneaky this game; nesta could have listed Queuing there to throw people off if one of them were lynched. It’s enough to knock his name down quite a bit on the list of possibilities, though, unless he says something fishy.

That’s all for now. Gotta go to work. Might not be online tonight til late, because I’m going out to dinner right after work.

1725

If BM is not the vig, would it make sense for the real vig to out himself? That’s an honest question.

1726

[QUOTE=Menocchio]
We really ought not to assume that the mafia chose BM last night. They knew as well as we did that BM was likely doc-protected. This would have led them to choose another target, possibly the same target that they had blocked against them the previous night.

Of course, they might have figured that the doc knew that too and figured the doc would try to flank them that way and gone for BM.

Or BM is scum the real Vig killed Nesta and the SK held her fire.

All I’m saying is that we ought not to read much into the mafia’s apparent failure last night. The only people with a clue as to what happened are the mafia and doc.
[/QUOTE]

Rational strategy for both scum and doc would be to randomly choose between BM and someone else, perhaps weighting their choices to reflect the perceived value of BM - assuming that he is not scum. We can be quietly confident that he is not a vanilla townie; there are scenarios where this works, but they’re contrived.

1727

[QUOTE=zuma]
If BM is not the vig, would it make sense for the real vig to out himself? That’s an honest question.
[/QUOTE]

No, certainly not. Indeed, one possibility is that BM is vanilla town and is now effectively running interference for the real vig, who will kill what BM is told to kill to preserve his cover! That’d be just beans for us because it means that if BM buys the farm for any reason we still have the vig in our pocket, and the scum don’t know who he is.

Meanwhile the scum have to use their kill every night to maintain BM’s cover, if he is one of theirs. Well, they were going to kill a townie anyway - and if they don’t manage to steer the vote on the vig kill to a townie, they either have to burn one of their own or blow BM’s cover. So once the vig vote points to scum, we get one of them: the designated victim, or BM, lynched the next day.

1728

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]

In post 694, you’re VERY particular about pegging me as SK. You seem keen on the fact that I had a night kill role, but you skim over the possibility that that could mean mafia, and even completely ignore that I could be the VIG.

[/QUOTE]

You’re right on that initially. I didn’t acknowledge that you may be a Good Guy. I said that in my last post. As far as being so specific about my accusation, I wanted to generate some discussion on the possibility that you had a killing role. The only people who really said anything were you and Malacandra. In post #846 I proposed that you and her were in cahoots somehow. You two are the only ones who seem to think I’m scum.

Malacandra’s post just up the current page:

Again, she doesn’t justify this, she just wants me out. Since she voted for my Vigging and lynching, I’ll assume she also thinks I’m the SK and doesn’t want to “waste” a town kill on me.

That last post of hers actually changed my mind that you and her are teammates. Now I’m inclined to believe that you are the VIG, and she is the SK. She keeps taking your side on everything, and I wonder if she had you pegged as the VIG, following your original plan of breadcrumbing for SK. Since I called you on it first, she could have decided to follow suit with a pro-townie player in hopes of avoiding certain death. Ever since you accused me of being the SK she has pointed FOS at me left and right with no justification whatsoever.

Malacandra, I urge you to post reasons for wanting to send me to an early grave. If I can follow your line of thought, maybe I can clear you of your suspicions.

[QUOTE-Blaster Master]
Similarly, in post 725, you’re again VERY particular about picking me out as the SK and wanting to lynch me. I, infact, knew that the VIG had targetted CaerieD, because, well, I’m the VIG. Then, in a strange twist of logic, you think being the SK is a good reason to lynch me. When it is, in fact, in the best interest of the town to let the VIG kill the SK at night so we can both lose the SK AND gain a confirmed townie.
[/QUOTE]

As far as that strategy goes, I can understand the point that having the VIG is important for the town. However, as a few others have said, the SK is scum and needs to die at some point if the town hopes to win. Plus, the VIG is only as useful as accurate as the info he gains from reading our posts. Since it was only Day 2, he really didn’t have much to go on, and the townies were basically offing each other yesterday. The VIG can only be sure that he is not town. Following inaccurate info, as was done last night, another townie died. I think it actually increases the chance of town winning if the SK is taken out because 1. he/she won’t be knocking off more town, potentially and 2. neither will the VIG. It just seems that of we only risk losing one townie during the night instead of three, it puts us at an advantage. The mafia are probably having a field day while we do their dirty work for them.

1729

I’m not a she.

1730

Also, if I were the SK, I’d want the Vig out of the way as soon as possible, and I’d be doing all in my power to get him strung up; failing that, I’d be keeping quiet and trying to hit him myself. The one thing I wouldn’t do would be to defend the Vig when there were no fingers pointing at me as SK.

1731

Well, I stayed awake far later than I should re-reading this entire thread, and I have a bunch of preliminary thoughts and opinions. I next want to go through the thread a second time, this time player by player, to see if reading the posts of individual players in isolation might yield clues that reading the thread in sequence has not. Before I do that, though, I want to wade in with a few thoughts:

We started with 38 players total; nine have been either lynched or night killed. Now, I needed to make some assumptions for the purpose of analysis; many of you may disagree with some of these, but I think that’s OK - if our various inquiries lead in different directions for a few IRL days, we have less of a chance of winding up in a situation like yesterday, where one conflict dominates the entire discussion. So, my assumptions:

  1. Pleonast and Zuma are really Masons. If they were not, I am fairly certain someone would have counterclaimed by now.

  2. Queuing is town. I was leaning in this direction toward the latter half of yesterday based on his comments and approach, and nothing has happened since then to change my mind. I suppose it is possible that a Mafia would allow him/herself to accumulate 13 votes and encourage votes for him/her, in the hopes that a last minute save like the one that happened yesterday would happen. It is possible, but I think it exceedingly unlikely.

  3. sturmhauke is town, per my reasoning elsewhere in this thread (essentially, the Day 1 bandwagon against him developed so fast and on so little evidence that there had to be scum behind it, and why would scum encourage a Day 1 bandwagon against scum?)

  4. JSexton/chrisk is town. This is based mostly on my feelings about chrisk’s postings right before he left the game, and is admittedly unscientific, but it’s where I am right now.

  5. Autolycus is town. Even less evidence-based an assumption than the one I made about JSexton, but at some point you have to go with your gut (even if it’s the same gut that made you suspicious of both ET and Gadarene).

  6. I (storyteller0910) am town. This one is pretty evidence-based from my perspective :slight_smile:

  7. Blaster Master is either the Vig as he claims, or the SK. I just can’t see the Mafia developing a scheme where BM is the fake Vig, and wasting their night kill like that. It doesn’t seem to benefit them much.

  8. Rysto is town. I haven’t seen anything even slightly suspicious, and his ideas seem to line up well with mine in many cases.

  9. Menocchio is either town or the Godfather (based on our late Detective’s findings). I suspect the former.

Here is the original town list:

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus
Blaster Master
brewha
CaerieD
Captain Carrot
chrisk
cowgirl
Dnooman
Enfant Terrible
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom
Fretful Porpentine
Gadarene
glee
hocow
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
nesta
One and Only Wanderers
pimaspinner
Pleonast
Pygmy Rugger
Queuing
Rysto
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Storyteller0910
Sturmhauke
Suburban Plankton
Winston Smith
Zuma

I have bold faced all those who, for these purposes, I’m eliminating from suspicion, either because they are dead, or for reasons outlined on my list of assumptions. With them removed, the list now looks like this:

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
brewha
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom
Fretful Porpentine
glee
hocow
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pygmy Rugger
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Suburban Plankton

Most of the above people are obviously town. Some are certainly Mafia. My next goal is going to be to take a closer look at each one, and see if I can strike any off the list or move a few up.

Right now, though, I’m comfortable reiterating my suspicion of FlyingCowofDoom. As I noted yesterday, his name appears most often on the list of people who have voted for or pushed against people I trust. It’s very early, but for the moment I would like to

vote FlyingCowofDoom

More later.

1732

I don’t think my voting record is that suspicious, just unlucky.

I don’t see how the first day’s voting is entirely relevant as most of us were voting randomly. I got unlucky and voted for a citizen, but so did three confirmed-by-death townies, the probable Vigilante, and a confirmed Mason.

Yesterday I started out by voting for chrisk/JSexton based on suspicions I voiced on day one. I believe I was the second one to vote for him, after Rysto. Yes, I jumped on the **Queuing **bandwagon, but again, the town voted him almost to death before **Pleonast **and **zuma **came out. Both of our Masons and **Winston **were all on that bandwagon as well, I might point out. I’m still suspicious of Queuing, but less so. We know he’s not a Mason, but that’s not enough to damn him.

My voting record certainly doesn’t prove that I’m not in the Mafia, but it shows I think similarly to confirmed citizens. I have to say I don’t think I’m very good at this game, but I’m not in the Mafia. I think part of my problem is that I’m too quick to cast a vote when I get suspicious. I’m going to wait until much later today to cast a vote for this reason.

I will say that my original suspicions of **JSexton **are still there and he’s on the top of my list. chrisk’s actions were very suspicious, and **JSexton **still hasn’t addressed that. Instead, he gave his a list of suspicions that is wrong on several counts. He was sure that **Pleonast **was scum, mostly sure that **Gadarene **was scum, leaned toward **nesta **being town, and probably wrong about Blaster Master being the SK. Not only that, but as **zuma **pointed out some number of posts back, he wanted to eliminate the SK ASAP, which IMO is a very bad idea. The Vigilante can be a great help to us, provided we utilize him/her correctly.

I’d also like to point out that I think the Mafia would have been very foolish to try to hit Blaster Master last night. I think it’d be pretty obvious that he’d be protected by the Doctor, and the Mafia (seeing as how they obviously know how to play the game fairly well) would know this. There were only two deaths, so I think the likely possibility is that a Miller succeeding in blocking the Mafia. As I understand it (and NAF please correct me if I’m wrong), if a Miller targets a Mafia member, there is a 1 in X chance of blocking the Mafia’s kill, where X is the number of living Mafia members. If the Miller targets the Godfather, is the Mafia’s kill automatically blocked?

I’m not voting until I see more discussion, especially from JSexton. I’d like to hear what he has to say.

–FCOD

1733

[QUOTE=zuma]
That would indeed be a bold move by BM, if he is mafia. I know I got a lot of heat yesterday for talking about BM’s “choice”, but honestly I meant town-approved choice… a list of town-approved people he could choose from. Re-reading, BM was leading the discussion of what he was going to do too much.

I think next time (and god knows I’ve made a lot of mistakes in this game and trusting MB too much may be one of them), BM should not be proposing scenarios and conducting vote counts at all.

I propose when the time comes, Pleonast will handle all Blaster-Master action proposals and voting, if Pleonast is agreeable to this.
[/QUOTE]

FTR, I already made essentially this recommendation here . Though, I don’t see the harm in me proposing scenarios, because I still get to vote in the daily lynchings, and if I don’t even get to post analysis or suspects for mafia and/or SK suspects, what’s the point? I have made my SK suspects known, and I hope the town takes my point into consideration.

Similarly, I don’t see the harm in my posting vote counts as they are fully verifiable; I may miscount, but so may other people. However, if someone else would prefer to do it, I won’t protest.

1734

Just wanted to say sorry for getting some of those vote counts wrong. I looked through the thread, cut and paste what NAF had listed as his vote counts.

1735

[QUOTE=zuma]
I propose when the time comes, Pleonast will handle all Blaster-Master action proposals and voting, if Pleonast is agreeable to this.
[/QUOTE]
I won’t generally have as much time as I did earlier this week to keep up. Especially on weekends. I counter-propose, zuma to be the leash-holder.

1736

[QUOTE=Kat]
I’d just like to point out that you (generic you) shouldn’t take Queuing totally off the suspicion list. Mafia’s been pretty sneaky this game; nesta could have listed Queuing there to throw people off if one of them were lynched. It’s enough to knock his name down quite a bit on the list of possibilities, though, unless he says something fishy.

That’s all for now. Gotta go to work. Might not be online tonight til late, because I’m going out to dinner right after work.
[/QUOTE]

I agree. That post and reference was more because queuing was on my own list since the beginning. That page (31) is just why I personally am moving him down for the time being on my scum list. I’ll be really confident about scum at the time that NAF is in here giving a day by day analysis at game’s end.

Another thing. I am apparently twigging queuing’s and **Blaster Master **‘s radar. I don’t expect my reevaluation to take me off of queuing’s list. Bandwagon suspicions and buddying up with mutual trusts all smack of collusion to me. I’m in the dark here, and people who look like they’re not give me a whiff o’ stink.

As for **Blaster Master ** it looks like he passed the test that got him off the gallows trapdoor. That I ping his scumdar only worries me that he might mistakenly kill me at night in his zeal. But so might the SK, and that without rhyme or reason. So be it. It’s a violent town our Doperville.

After passing through the hexenkessel of yesterday’s, um, discussion I am feeling pretty light and carefree. I picture this all taking place in someone’s living room, after a nice big dinner, with all of us laughing and pointing and trying to keep straight faces. It’s a game and I’m going to have fun, or we can just turn this thread around right now up and take it home to GD, do you kids hear me?!

1737

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
As I understand it (and NAF please correct me if I’m wrong), if a Miller targets a Mafia member, there is a 1 in X chance of blocking the Mafia’s kill, where X is the number of living Mafia members. If the Miller targets the Godfather, is the Mafia’s kill automatically blocked?
[/QUOTE]

You are right about the chance to block the mafia 1/n chance where n is the number of living mafia. You are wrong about the GF, a miller block on him is treated just like a miller block on a regular mafia.

1738

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
7) Since we have two confirmed masons, as was also recommended by Queuing, I would prefer they start with the FoS pointing, particularly at the lower post count players. Here’s a list of people of whom I’m particularly suspicious (in no particular order, except for hocow), but I will still leave it up to them if they agree with this list or not:
hocow (my #1 suspicion of being SK, and if not SK, then probably mafia)
ArizonaTeach
Flying Cow of Doom
MonkeyMensch
Malacandra
Aguecheek
Pygmy Rugger
brewha.

[/QUOTE]
:confused:
I hope you can give more of a reason to be suspicious of me than low post count, comparatively, to put me on your list, there, Mr. “I have keys on many town roles but I killed a cop that night” Vigilante? I’m not buying the idea that you’re anything but a vigilante, but so far, your analysis has been right on par with mine, which is around god-awful, so if you’re going to accuse me, I’d like to know why.

1739

[QUOTE=Lakai]
Why the Masonic lodge?
[/QUOTE]

Why not? Honestly dont read too much into that one. In my mind that is where the mafia have set up shop. It was just color.

1740

[QUOTE=Malacandra]
I’m not a she.
[/QUOTE]

Oops. I apologize.

But you still won’t give any justification for your accusation?