Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1741

[QUOTE=Malacandra]
Rational strategy for both scum and doc would be to randomly choose between BM and someone else, perhaps weighting their choices to reflect the perceived value of BM - assuming that he is not scum. We can be quietly confident that he is not a vanilla townie; there are scenarios where this works, but they’re contrived.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Malacandra]
No, certainly not. Indeed, one possibility is that BM is vanilla town and is now effectively running interference for the real vig, who will kill what BM is told to kill to preserve his cover! That’d be just beans for us because it means that if BM buys the farm for any reason we still have the vig in our pocket, and the scum don’t know who he is.

Meanwhile the scum have to use their kill every night to maintain BM’s cover, if he is one of theirs. Well, they were going to kill a townie anyway - and if they don’t manage to steer the vote on the vig kill to a townie, they either have to burn one of their own or blow BM’s cover. So once the vig vote points to scum, we get one of them: the designated victim, or BM, lynched the next day.
[/QUOTE]

Both of these posts look VERY suspicious to me, Malacandra. I agree that it’s nice to have some uncertainty as to who the doctor will protect, because it looks like he protected me last night and it was successful precisely because the mafia weren’t sure if I would or would not be protected. At this point, he’s presented with a futher dilemma of whether or not he thinks the mafia will try to hit me again tonight. HOWEVER, both of these posts look designed to influence the doctor to not protect me so that you, as mafia or as the SK, can take me out tonight.

1742

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
:confused:
I hope you can give more of a reason to be suspicious of me than low post count, comparatively, to put me on your list, there, Mr. “I have keys on many town roles but I killed a cop that night” Vigilante? I’m not buying the idea that you’re anything but a vigilante, but so far, your analysis has been right on par with mine, which is around god-awful, so if you’re going to accuse me, I’d like to know why.
[/QUOTE]

You strike me as, shall I say, being in “cahoots”; that means I think you’re either a mafia or a mason. I put you on the list because I can’t see any reason to eliminate you as a scum suspect, and if the masons choose from that list, that neither confirms nor denies that you are a mason. If I were inclined, I’d go back and re-read some of your past posts, but you’re not among the very highest of suspicion on my list, and you’re obviously not on others, so it’s not worth the time and effort at this point.

1743

Up to date on the thread.

I agree that passions got the best of us. I’ll let some cooler heads do some thinking.

I’m not going to first vote anyone. It’s possibly a good idea to get me or zuma first-vote, in that we won’t vote for a Mason. But, it also takes some pressure off Mafia. They could point to my vote and say “see a Mason vote for him, I was just following”. Better to make everyone give an indepent account of their votes.

I thus suggest that zuma, Menocchio, Blaster Master and myself (the presumed Townies) do not vote until after the countdown has started. I (or zuma) will then vote for the person under the gun if they are not a Mason.

I think this plan will force the less active players to vote and voice some opinion without giving them the cover of Townie votes.

The four of us should still give commentary and opinions. But not votes.

1744

Suspicious? Again, elementary game theory. If the scum (and SK) can assume that the Doctor is protecting you then they can be sure that he isn’t protecting anyone else. But if the Doctor reasons thus far then he too realizes he doesn’t need to protect you, and to do so is a waste of his power (and a risk of his own life). So he protects someone else. Then the scum will follow his reasoning and target you after all. And the Doctor will follow the scum’s reasoning and protect you after all. And then…

This is basically the same scenario I read about 36 years ago in a book called How To Take A Chance by Darrell Huff, except that it was Holmes and Moriarty deciding where to get off a train. The point is that you can’t run the algorithm “He’ll figure that I’ll figure that… so I’ll go a step further and figure that…” to completion, because the other player is doing so as well. Therefore the only sensible choice to optimise your outcome is to choose randomly, possibly with weighting.

The second post was where I was considering the possibility that you are either scum or vanilla town. Both are technically feasible but, in my judgement, fairly unlikely since they seem to call for more random factors to operate in your/our favour than if you really are the vig. If you are scum then you’re playing very well - you improvised cleverly and were backed up by your fellows - but you will note that I’m not calling for your head and my vote today will reflect my opinion of your story.

You agree, I hope, that it is right and proper that all possible evaluations of your status and last night’s kills should be discussed and taken into account?

Call it a hunch. My reluctance to explain further involves not exposing another player to harm. That could get me lynched, but I’m sitting tight and viewing that as a better outcome for the town. “Better” in the sense of the town lynching me could save a power role from getting scumkilled, you understand. And if my hunch is wrong, well, that happens.

1745

A quick read of nesta’s posts reveals this:

#303

#603

These are four posters for whom nesta either stated he was not going to vote (even in the 1st “random round”) or for whom he advised restraint. At some point today, I hope to slog through all his votes and determine whether he ever did vote for any of them at all. Pleonast is agreed to be mason, but to be fair, I’d suggest we look at all four.

The rest of his posts mainly centre around Queuing, Blaster Master and Gadarene, obviously playing up the round-robin of finger-pointing that marked the 2nd day, laughing the whole time, I’m sure.

I’ve printed off all his posts that weren’t daytime or prior to game start. I’ll look through them over the course of the day (easier than reading the thread, at least it looks like I’m working). I’d suggest we might want to look at the four posters above and see what connections, or lack thereof, they might have had with nesta. And if not, why not?

1746

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
If the Miller targets the Godfather, is the Mafia’s kill automatically blocked?

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

Nope, same odds.

1747

[QUOTE=zuma]
After chrisk left the game, JSexton told us he’d take a day to read, then be back with his thoughts. MY thought at the time was how he was going to address the chrisk situation. He never addressed it. He returned with analysis on a lot of players, but not the one who drew the most attention at the beginning of day 2: his predecessor chrisk.
[/quote]

I’m not sure what you want from me here. I disagree with the positions he took. I thought he was looking scummy for them before I took over his role. Beyond that, how can I possibly defend positions I didn’t take and don’t agree with?

And what good has the vig done? That’s right, he’s killed more townies than the mafia, it appears, including the freaking Cop, who died unclaimed with a single investigation with a single, slightly uncertain breadcrumb. You still don’t see why I consider the vig a potential liability?

As for my other advice…man, I’ve been way off. I admit it. Assuming that you and Pleonast are telling the truth, and that Blaster is as well, I’ve been off on basically all my targets. Queueing and Aguecheek are the only ones left untested. Pygmy was pinging my scumdar at the end of the day, but I don’t know if I’m trusting my own judgement right now.

Given what we know now, it’s apparent that at least some scum are sitting back and staying uninvolved. We’re letting too many people lurk. We need people to post or be replaced.

1748

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I agree, and I meant to mention JSexton in my previous post about of whom I’m suspicious. After consideration, especially with my response to hocow, he’s actually highly suspicious to me as well. He WAS very quick to peg me as the SK, and again mention I should be lynched, when it makes MORE sense to let the SK be hit at night by the VIG.
[/quote]

The reason I wanted to lynch the SK was to save a townie life. i consider that better than confirming someone. And after all, the vig can still clim, even after they lose their power and be confirmed that way.

If the vig keeps killing town, the SK might just decide to do the same and hasten a mafia win, which in turns translates to a SK win. Remember, townies have to kill all the scum, but the mafia only need a majority.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was one of the first to suggest Winston Smith.

1749

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
<snip>
I’m not going to first vote anyone. It’s possibly a good idea to get me or zuma first-vote, in that we won’t vote for a Mason. But, it also takes some pressure off Mafia. They could point to my vote and say “see a Mason vote for him, I was just following”. Better to make everyone give an indepent account of their votes.
[/QUOTE]

I follow this line of reasoning, and mostly agree.

[QUOTE=Pleonast]
<I thus suggest that zuma, Menocchio, Blaster Master and myself (the presumed Townies) do not vote until after the countdown has started. I (or zuma) will then vote for the person under the gun if they are not a Mason.

I think this plan will force the less active players to vote and voice some opinion without giving them the cover of Townie votes.

The four of us should still give commentary and opinions. But not votes.
[/QUOTE]

I disagree with this part because a first vote for a non-Mason will not expose a mason. Voting for the person under the gun or more specifically, NOT voting for a person under the gun WILL expose a Mason by this line of reasoning. I don’t think **Pleonast ** or **zuma ** should wait until the countdown to cast a vote. I personally want to know what they have to say, even though I won’t hold off my vote to wait for theirs.

1750

[QUOTE=zuma]
Oh, and vote: JSexton just to get the ball rolling.
[/QUOTE]

I will count this one…but keep the votes in blue people! I don’t always have time to keep up with y’all, so I frequently just skim the thread for blue text and my name. So vote in blue, otherwise it won’t count.

1751

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
You strike me as, shall I say, being in “cahoots”; that means I think you’re either a mafia or a mason. I put you on the list because I can’t see any reason to eliminate you as a scum suspect, and if the masons choose from that list, that neither confirms nor denies that you are a mason. If I were inclined, I’d go back and re-read some of your past posts, but you’re not among the very highest of suspicion on my list, and you’re obviously not on others, so it’s not worth the time and effort at this point.
[/QUOTE]
Hm. Well, I disagree on two points there - I’m certainly not in cahoots, and dammit, I am worth something, aren’t I? After being dismissed by both you and Autolycus, my feelings, they are hurt.
Actually, I felt it was smart to keep my head down while us townies had an advantage, but that advantage is slipping away and slipping away FAST. Unfortunately, with the amount of white noise that’s being posted, seems to me everything we do from this point on is going to be 75% gut, 20% logic, and 5% random.org.
That said, I can understand why no mason counter-claim happened yesterday, but if **Pleonast ** and **zuma ** are scum, a mason needs to claim today. Otherwise, I’m going to be giving their words total weight and following blindly like the sheep I am. After all, I’ve got a .000 average so far.

1752

I missed one earlier:

#833

[quote=nesta]
…I don’t think we gain anything by lynching Autolycus…

[quote]
He does, however encourage the Vig to take him out later in the same post.

1753

Crap.

#833

He does, however encourage the Vig to take him out later in the same post.

1754

I think at this point we can be certain that **Pleonast **and **zuma **are real Masons. If they aren’t, our true Masons are either brain dead or traitors.

JSexton, I don’t buy your reasoning for getting rid of the Vig/SK this soon. Sure, there were some casualties early on, but the Vig has to kill every night, and the first time has to be random. By the second night there isn’t much information to go on, so I’m willing to forgive that kill as well. Now that we’ve got Blaster Master on a leash, we have an advantage. We just have to be careful when we get closer to the end of the game. You are way too suspicious to me. **chrisk **was way too suspicious posting his ODS idea after admitting it was a detriment to the town, and you’ve come back with more anti-town logic.

Vote JSexton.

–FCOD

1755

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
I’m certainly not in cahoots, and dammit, I am worth something, aren’t I? After being dismissed by both you and Autolycus, my feelings, they are hurt.
[/QUOTE]

[/GAME OFF]
To you, and to others whose feelings I may have hurt (Gadarene also comes to mind). I’m fiercely competitive and even more so because of my frustration (which is largely due to things having nothing to do with this game, but also because we’re not doing to well). However, my accusations, FoSs, and aggressive pursuits are only meant in good fun in the context of the game. My apologies to you, and the others; if I get out of line or offend you, please PM me and I’ll gladly apologize.

That said, I’m still suspicious of you. :stuck_out_tongue:
[/GAME ON]

1756

[QUOTE=sturmhauke]
<snip>As of right now, I’m most suspicious of Pygmy Rugger. These are his votes yesterday: JSexton, Blaster Master, Pleonast, Queuing, Gadarene. Basically, he was pinging around all the bandwagons, hoping to get one of them moving too fast to stop.
[/QUOTE]

Allow me to explain myself. I first voted for chrisk, because of his actions in trying to expose the cop. When we decided it wouldn’t be fair to JSexton to lynch him before he had a chance to catch up and post his theory, I switched my vote to Blaster Master, as I felt he was acting very suspicious at that time. When it turned out he was Vig*, I had to chose one person from the two sides that had formed, and I felt that Gadarene was an honest townie. At that point, Pleonast got my vote, as he was the person on his respective side of yesterdays debates. I reluctantly** changed when he claimed Mason, and switched to Queuing. With my final vote change, to Gadarene, I explicity stated I thought he was town, and was simply changing my vote to end the day sooner. At that point, and I stated it several times, we were simply trying to get blood from a turnip, and a lynching needed to happen in order to get more information, instead of blind debating.

*I have no reason to doubt this now, because even if he isn’t, the Doc won’t protect him forever, and the real Vig can take him out. As for him being the SK, he has no reason to claim, as it would have been, effectively, suicide.

**I firmly believe, now, Pleonast and zuma are Masons, or there would have been a counterclaim by now.

1757

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
Hm. Well, I disagree on two points there - I’m certainly not in cahoots, and dammit, I am worth something, aren’t I? After being dismissed by both you and Autolycus, my feelings, they are hurt.
Actually, I felt it was smart to keep my head down while us townies had an advantage<snip>
[/QUOTE]

Sorry to say, but if your feelings are hurt because you’re being accused, you shouldn’t be playing. No offence, but the only way we’re going to flush out the scum is by accusing some that aren’t.

Can you please explain why you think it was smart to keep your head down when we had an advantage?

1758

I am pretty sure ArizonaTeach was just joking there fellows. I really can’t see anyone actually getting upset and insulted about a game where we are suppose to accuse people and call them names (to a certain extent).

Thats it, please continue. :slight_smile:

1759

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]

With my final vote change, to Gadarene, I explicity stated I thought he was town, and was simply changing my vote to end the day sooner. At that point, and I stated it several times, we were simply trying to get blood from a turnip, and a lynching needed to happen in order to get more information, instead of blind debating.
[/QUOTE]

I don’t understand voting for someone you think is town simply to end the day sooner. I felt then, as now, that you were trying to cover your tracks for that vote.

Vote Pygmy Rugger

1760

[QUOTE=MadTheSwine]
I don’t understand voting for someone you think is town simply to end the day sooner. I felt then, as now, that you were trying to cover your tracks for that vote.

Vote Pygmy Rugger
[/QUOTE]

I don’t know why you have it out for me, but you’ve been the first to vote for me two days in a row.

The reason, and I’ll state it again, that I wanted to end the day was because there was alot of finger pointing flying around, in multiple directions. It forced three valuable roles into claiming to spare their necks, and all the accusations on the second day were essentially random. Somebody was going to get lynched, and it was going to be one of the people involved in the heated arguments yesterday. I did not feel any more blood was going to be squeezed from the turnip without information coming via a lynching.