Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

[ArizonaTeach]

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
Sorry to say, but if your feelings are hurt because you’re being accused, you shouldn’t be playing. No offence, but the only way we’re going to flush out the scum is by accusing some that aren’t.

Can you please explain why you think it was smart to keep your head down when we had an advantage?
[/QUOTE]
Uh, yeah, that wooshing sound you hear…? Check out my response to **Autolycus ** earlier in the thread.
In any case, sure, as a townie, I have absolutely no inside information, so I had no bread crumbs to drop and anything I did say would be analyzed ad infinitum to no purpose…the white noise I mentioned earlier. When I had suspicions, I posted and explained them, but blind speculation and the back-and-forthing here is going to sink the town. The mafia has managed to successfully confuse the issue repeatedly as far as I’m concerned, and I’m more apt to believe the heavy posters over the lighter ones at the moment.

[ArizonaTeach]

Sorry, I mean “apt to believe the heavy posters are scum than the lighter ones.”
My turn to say “damn no-edits!”

Oh, and Blaster, of course I’m not really upset. I just wanted to be loved, that’s all. Sniff.

[Queuing]

Sweet!

I was right!

ArizonaTeach was joking!

It feels good to be right for once

[Aguecheek]

Okay.

hocow’s posts. Not as much to go on, but like nesta, she’s right in on the whole Blaster Master, Queuing, Malacandra fiasco.

Not many people weren’t, however.

She does not respond to or acknowledge any of nesta’s posts. The only time they intersect is when she also vaguely defends chrisk [JSexton] in post #694:

@hocow

…In post #437, Queuing is fiercely defending chrisk, and saying that he should give us his “investigations” daily so we have something to work with. I took chrisk’s hypothetical claim, as just that: hypothetical. He may or may not be a cop, but I took it to mean that everyone should do this to confuse mafia and leave breadcrumbs for when death ensues. However, if he is not a cop and continues to post “facts” it will hurt the townies that may believe him, if he posts inaccurately.

Day 1, she didn’t get a chance to vote.
Day 2, she voted for Blaster Master

[Blaster_Master]

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
Oh, and Blaster, of course I’m not really upset. I just wanted to be loved, that’s all. Sniff.
[/QUOTE]
I had a feeling you were, but I also felt I had legitimately upset others, and I just wanted to clear the air, just in case. I don’t want anyone to harbor bad feelings towards me, or anyone else for that matter, because of a game.
[QUOTE=Queuing]
It feels good to be right for once
[/QUOTE]

[BACK TO THE GAME]
Pygmy Rugger:

I agree with MTS that it looks very suspicious. Agreed, there was lot’s of finger pointing, and I accept my fair share of the blame for it; however, I also think that your justification for not stepping in and defending Gadarene more than a disclaimer seems specifically anti-town. That is, it looks like you want to be able to say “see, I told you he wasn’t town”. The Enfant Terrible early lynching was a mistake because we lynched too early, and the **Gadarene ** lynching was a mistake because no one (other than Queuing) was willing to step in and say something, and the four or five of us who were in the discussion had already drawn our lines.

We already learned the first lesson, and we’re trying to address the second by having us louder citizens quiet down some (I admit, I haven’t quieted much), and letting the other quieter citizens catch up and post more.

[Aguecheek]

MonkeyMensch:

He’s already responded, going back through his posts, listing his voting history.

Here’s a couple, however, that spring up, when you read it, re: nesta, hocow, chrisk, Autolycus:

#697

@MonkeyMensch

So I’m FOSing in order chrisk, brewha (on his weak accusation of myself that Malacandra picked up on as well), and aguecheek for #393 where he accuses sturmhauke on nothing more than last game performance.

#704

@MonkeyMensch

I don’t want to bandwagon chrisk without a little more discussion so my vote should be brewha.

Although chrisk was at the top of his FOS list, he voted brewha.

Something else of interest, which I think might have been brought up before, but I can’t remember when or by whom:

#246

@MonkeyMensch

…I’m a noob and never read the parallel thread from last game.

Soon after he states in #284:

@MonkeyMensch

…I followed the first game seriously closely, and am a fairly sharp tack…

That in itself says nothing concrete, since he refers first to the forbidden thread, and secondly to the actual game thread, but it’s still kinda hinky, y’ask me.

And that’s it for me. Back to work. If someone wants to look at Pleonast and Autolycus, you’re more than welcome to. I’m home late tonight, so I won’t be able to read anything for a while.

Thanks for slowing it down, guys.

[Santo_Rugger]

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
Zuma, or JSexton, if you’re still around, can you switch your votes and start the clock?
[/QUOTE]

You yourself asked somebody to switch their votes from Q to G.

[Suburban_Plankton]

The first Werewolf game on this board had a total of 1,386 posts. By my count this thread had 1,023 posts in Day 2 alone. With that much going on, it’s easy to forget that we are still “early” in the game. We’ve been jabbering back and forth at each other for what seems like forever, but it’s been mostly just a lot of hot air. There still isn’t a lot of real solid information out there. In fact, the list is really pretty short.

Things we know:

**zuma **and **Pleonast **are Masons

Unless there was only 1 Mason to begin with (which makes zero sense), it is inconceivable that none of the “real” Masons would have counter-claimed by now.

And that’s about it. Which brings us to…

Things we think we know:

**Menocchio **is town.

This is based on the breadcrumb left by CaerieD. Sure, it’s possible that this wasn’t the breadcrumb, but I think we’ve pretty much left that discussion behind us.
Blaster Master is the Vigilante:

This one I think is probably true as well, but there is another scenario that I want to discuss.

I’ll admit right off that I’ve suspected Blaster Master from way back, and part of my suspicion now is probably due to my stubbornness at not wanting to admit I was wrong. That being said, I think that there is a possibility that he could be Mafia. The reasoning against this idea is that the charade would only work as long as he was not instructed to target another Mafia member. But from the Mafia’s point of view, what’s wrong with that. He was going to be lynched yesterday until he claimed. Even if he was found out overnight, he gets one more chance to do damage. After people unvoted Blaster Master, the choice of target came down to Pleonast, Queuing, and Gadarene. We now know that two of those are confirmed town, and the heat seems to be off of Pleonast for the moment as well. So Blaster Master effectively traded his life for one of these others, knowing that we would most likely lynch a Citizen.
Then he offered to let us choose his nighttime target, which somehow ended up to be Winston Smith. How did that happen? I’m not certain, but I seem to recall that Blaster Master had something to do with the choice. (Unfortunately, my job that doesn’t allow me the convenience of poring over the entire thread again to find evidence. If I’m way off base here, I’m sure someone will let me know.) That’s two Citizens down, and Blaster Master still alive. Even if he were lynched today, the Mafia are up 2-1 on the deal.

So is Blaster Master the Vigilante, or is he Mafia scum? I must admit, the scenario I just spelled out is somewhat far-fetched, but it is far from impossible. At this point, I’d say that it is more likely that Blaster Master is the Vigilante, but I’m reserving my own judgment.
Again, a fairly short list. Which leaves me with one more point to make.
Things I suspect:

**JSexton **is Mafia

I was put off from the very beginning (of JSexton’s tenure) by the fact that the Town seemed to look upon him as our Savior, here to single-handedly deliver us from the Mafia menace. I know, that wasn’t his fault, but then again he didn’t say anything to suggest that we should think otherwise. Let’s take a look at some of his initial observations:

Probably Scum:
Blaster Master (Serial Killer)
Pleonast
Queueing
glee
Aguecheek
Gadarene
brewha
Fern Forest

From his “Probably scum” list, we now know (as much as we can know anything bout anyone who’s still alive) that **Pleonast **and **Gadarene **are Town. Conventional wisdom says that Blaster Master is as well, and it also now appears that Queuing’s biggest sin might have been getting stuck in the middle of yesterday’s fiasco. Now I realize that with the exception of what I assume to be the Serial Killer’s vote last night, we are batting a collective 0.000, but knowing what weight the town was putting into his analysis, I find these results a bit surprising. Also surprising is that although he identified all these folks as likely Mafia, and specifically pointed to the top 5 names in the list, the only one he actually voted for was Gadarene (number 6), and that only after 13 other people had beaten him to it.

Going back to his predecessor, chrisk, and his “let’s all pretend we’re cops” idea; I still can’t see how that was supposed to benefit the town at all. the only thing it did was add lots and lots of noise to the thread. and the only people who benefit from the noise are those who have a means of filtering it out. there are only two groups in this game who have such a filter: the Masons and the Mafia. Since zuma has voted for JSexton, I’m guessing he isn’t a Mason.

Vote JSexton.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to get back to work while I still have a job.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
Uh, yeah, that wooshing sound you hear…? Check out my response to **Autolycus ** earlier in the thread.
In any case, sure, as a townie, I have absolutely no inside information, so I had no bread crumbs to drop and anything I did say would be analyzed ad infinitum to no purpose…the white noise I mentioned earlier. When I had suspicions, I posted and explained them, but blind speculation and the back-and-forthing here is going to sink the town. The mafia has managed to successfully confuse the issue repeatedly as far as I’m concerned, and I’m more apt to believe the heavy posters over the lighter ones at the moment.
[/QUOTE]

How do you know that? The only confirmed scum we have is nesta, who didn’t post much at all.

I’m curious to know what brings you to this conclusion.

[Queuing]

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
it also now appears that Queuing’s biggest sin might have been getting stuck in the middle of yesterday’s fiasco.
[/QUOTE]

Hey!!

I lead a lot of yesterdays fiascodammit! No “in the middle here.” But I do agree that it may have been my biggest sin. Of course, thats cause I was wrong.

This week has involved a lot of building computers and watching blue bars fill up. Man is that boring.

[kivvik]

Suburban Plankton

I was put off from the very beginning (of JSexton’s tenure) by the fact that the Town seemed to look upon him as our Savior, here to single-handedly deliver us from the Mafia menace. I know, that wasn’t his fault, but then again he didn’t say anything to suggest that we think otherwise.

I agree that we gave him too much credence. I think this was due to him being one of, if not the only, the few who had more Mafia experience than playing/reading the WereWolf game and attendant thread. We expected a miracle, and got what we deserved. A bunch of gut feelings and misreadings. But you know what? That’s the best he could have done. It was the second day, and we had only slightly more than Jack Schitt to go by. He was wrong on some things, likely right on others. Just like most of us. Given that we have, or rather the SK likely has, knocked out a Mafioso, and we have three pretty much confirmed townies, his analytical skills, and that of our others of that bent, have that much more to go on. I do not declare him innocent! But I ain’t gonna knock him for giving him just what we were asking of him, unless he continues to hold onto his earlier statements and refuses to change.

And his thoughts on Autolycus mirror my own, so hey, good vibes there*

*Unless that turns out to be a false feeling on his part. Then bad vibes. But I feel that he reached his conclusion about him the same way I did.

[Hockey_Monkey]

This post is bothering me.

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
<snip> We started with 38 players total; nine have been either lynched or night killed. Now, I needed to make some assumptions for the purpose of analysis; many of you may disagree with some of these, but I think that’s OK - if our various inquiries lead in different directions for a few IRL days, we have less of a chance of winding up in a situation like yesterday, where one conflict dominates the entire discussion. So, my assumptions:

1. Pleonast and Zuma are really Masons. If they were not, I am fairly certain someone would have counterclaimed by now.
   [/QUOTE]

Agreed.

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
2. Queuing is town. I was leaning in this direction toward the latter half of yesterday based on his comments and approach, and nothing has happened since then to change my mind. I suppose it is possible that a Mafia would allow him/herself to accumulate 13 votes and encourage votes for him/her, in the hopes that a last minute save like the one that happened yesterday would happen. It is possible, but I think it exceedingly unlikely.
[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
3. sturmhauke is town, per my reasoning elsewhere in this thread (essentially, the Day 1 bandwagon against him developed so fast and on so little evidence that there had to be scum behind it, and why would scum encourage a Day 1 bandwagon against scum?)

4. JSexton/chrisk is town. This is based mostly on my feelings about chrisk’s postings right before he left the game, and is admittedly unscientific, but it’s where I am right now.

5. Autolycus is town. Even less evidence-based an assumption than the one I made about JSexton, but at some point you have to go with your gut (even if it’s the same gut that made you suspicious of both ET and Gadarene).

6. I (storyteller0910) am town. This one is pretty evidence-based from my perspective

<snip> for continuity purposes

8. Rysto is town. I haven’t seen anything even slightly suspicious, and his ideas seem to line up well with mine in many cases.

9. Menocchio is either town or the Godfather (based on our late Detective’s findings). I suspect the former.

[/QUOTE]

I don’t get the feeling that any of these people with the possible exception of Menocchio, is town. It reads like a scum list to me. **Jsexton ** came out with his list of scum which was mostly now confirmed townfolk. How is this not suspicious? **Autolycus ** I admit, I don’t know which way or the other, but I find it strange that you are sure he’s town. As for you yourself, you have been raising my suspicions all game, and this post has got the nail halfway down. You don’t think **Rysto ** has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
7. Blaster Master is either the Vig as he claims, or the SK. I just can’t see the Mafia developing a scheme where BM is the fake Vig, and wasting their night kill like that. It doesn’t seem to benefit them much.
[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
Here is the original town list:

<edited for brevity’s sake>

I have bold faced all those who, for these purposes, I’m eliminating from suspicion, either because they are dead, or for reasons outlined on my list of assumptions. With them removed, the list now looks like this:

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
brewha
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom
Fretful Porpentine
glee
hocow
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pygmy Rugger
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Suburban Plankton

Most of the above people are obviously town. Some are certainly Mafia. My next goal is going to be to take a closer look at each one, and see if I can strike any off the list or move a few up.

Right now, though, I’m comfortable reiterating my suspicion of FlyingCowofDoom. As I noted yesterday, his name appears most often on the list of people who have voted for or pushed against people I trust. It’s very early, but for the moment I would like to

vote FlyingCowofDoom <edited color tag>

More later.
[/QUOTE]

This vote for FCOD strikes me as scum voting scum to get things started. I also find it a bit odd that he is pointing out who he thinks is town rather than who he thinks is scum. I’m trying to narrow down who I think is against us.

So in the people left list, here are who I think are bad guys. I added back the names that storyteller left off.

Aguecheek
ArizonaTeach
Autolycus
brewha
Fern Forest
Flying Cow of Doom - scum
Fretful Porpentine
Glee - scum
Hocow – scum, or SK if Blaster Master’s reasoning is correct
Jsexton - scum
Kat
Kivvik
Lakai
MadTheSwine
Malacandra
Menocchio
MonkeyMensch
pimaspinner
Pygmy Rugger
Rysto - scum
Smitty
StarvingButStrong
Sturmhauke
Storyteller0910 – scum
Suburban Plankton

Anyone not noted in the above post, I don’t have a reading on one way or the other.

[hocow]

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
Okay.

hocow’s posts.
She does not respond to or acknowledge any of nesta’s posts. The only time they intersect is when she also vaguely defends chrisk [JSexton] in post #694:

Day 1, she didn’t get a chance to vote.
Day 2, she voted for Blaster Master
[/QUOTE]

What would you like me to respond to? If it will help clear me in your mind, by all means ask and ye shall receive. The first 2 days were incredibly long, and I’ve been putting in rough hours at work so I wasn’t able to do a whole lot in a timely fashion. Not the case for a little while, I’ll be able to keep up.

The first day I admit I was all for jumping on the Enfant bandwagon. He pinged my FOS for reasons I don’t recall but are a moot point now anyway. I have already explained my suspicion of BM. However I have also played with the idea that he is the VIG, not the SK as I had originally expected. I’m not completely convinced as of this post, but I acknowledge the possibility that when I fingered him out for a kill role, my paranoia took over and automatically assumed scum killer.

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as she claims she cannot defend her accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I’m hiding nothing so I don’t see what she can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:

[NAF1138]

[QUOTE=hocow]

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as **she ** claims she cannot defend **her ** accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I’m hiding nothing so I don’t see what **she ** can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:
[/QUOTE]

bolding mine

Ok, I feel bad for the guy now. **Malacandra ** is a he. He has posted this twice in the thread at other points, but maybe if I post it you guys might slow down and read it.

[JSexton]

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
JSexton, I don’t buy your reasoning for getting rid of the Vig/SK this soon. Sure, there were some casualties early on, but the Vig has to kill every night, and the first time has to be random.
[/quote]

Yes. Random. As in a ~75% of killing town.

[qoute]By the second night there isn’t much information to go on, so I’m willing to forgive that kill as well.
[/quote]

Wrong. That kill was based on information. And it led to a townie kill. Of a Cop. Who never got the chance to claim. And left only one breadcrumb, and it’s uncertain.

Now that we’ve got Blaster Master on a leash, we have an advantage.

And that went so well, didn’t it?

You are way too suspicious to me. **chrisk **was way too suspicious posting his ODS idea after admitting it was a detriment to the town,

No argument from me on this one. It was a godawful idea, and were I in the game at that point, I’d have argued against it.

and you’ve come back with more anti-town logic.

Do you honestly not see how much the vig has hurt us? You’re awfully cavalier with townie lives, FCow.

[Lakai]

[QUOTE=NAF1138]
bolding mine

Ok, I feel bad for the guy now. **Malacandra ** is a he. He has posted this twice in the thread at other points, but maybe if I post it you guys might slow down and read it.
[/QUOTE]

Well at least it wasn’t just me. I think it is because he has an “a” at the end of his name and planets are usually referred to as females.

I’m a dude BTW.

[Fretful_Porpentine]

You don’t think Rysto has done anything slightly suspicious? This post got me suspicous of him. Talking about how the mafia won’t be working in concert, but will be wreaking havoc on our suspicions by voting and unvoting each other. Made me think scum, not town.

Why is that suspicious? It seems to me to be a fairly common-sense bit of analysis, and one that he’d be more likely to keep to himself if he were scum.

I don’t see anything inherently suspicious about storyteller0910’s analysis, although I don’t think we have any evidence either way about Autolycus, chrisk / JSexton, or Rysto, and I’m less confident about Queuing than everyone else seems to be.

I’m somewhat suspicious of Lakai, because this post and this one strike me as definite attempts to split posters into factions – the sort of subtle, fan-the-flames-without-really-seeming-to strategy that I’m pretty sure the Mafia were engaging in on Day 2.

[Aguecheek]

@hocow

What would you like me to respond to?

Honestly? Nothing that I can think of yet. I’m assuming that Mafia will want to show that they’re honest townfolk by laying the FOS on others. I’m also assuming that when push comes to shove, they’ll vote for each other, should the need arise to protect their own backs. But only if they need to.

We know nesta, our only confirmed mafia, stated that he wasn’t going to vote for you or MonkeyMensch on the one random voting day. The same day that others based their random votes using the exact same method he did. We also know he FOS’d Autolycus, chrisk and Pleonast, but ultimately, never voted for them.

I’m trying to see if the other people he either FOS’d or refused to vote for did the same for each other, since he’s the only one we know is scum, and his posts might point us to other scum.

So I pulled your posts and tried to see where you and nesta might have intersected, re: the five people he mentioned. You did once, when, like I mentioned, you vaguely defended chrisk. Nor have you voted for any of the above five. I’ve done the same for MonkeyMensch, and if I get a chance, I’ll look through the others’ posts. You’re welcome to do so as well.

All that information is established fact, and that’s what’ll eventually lead us to more scum, I hope. I’m not laying the FOS on you, just collecting data and posting it. I’m on your side regarding the ability to keep up - I’m currently typing this up in an e/mail, so it at least looks like I’m working…

[Lakai]

[QUOTE=JSexton]

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
Now that we’ve got Blaster Master on a leash, we have an advantage.
[/QUOTE]

And that went so well, didn’t it?

[/QUOTE]

It’s not like the town did any better. Now we have two kills instead of one. All we have to do is vote for two people during the day, one in blue for the lynching, and one in dark orange for the assassination.

[QUOTE=JSexton]
Aguecheek: Scum, I think. Posts 393 stood out. Also, he’s been going after some perceived “easy” mislynches, like sturmhawke and Autolycus.
[/QUOTE]

This one if from here.

Are you still suspicious of Augecheek? First day targets are pretty much random. Anyone has an equal chance of picking anyone. I don’t see why Augecheek’s post 393 is more suspicious than anyone else’s on our first day’s witch hunt.

[Lakai]

[QUOTE=Fretful Porpentine]

I’m somewhat suspicious of Lakai, because this post and this one strike me as definite attempts to split posters into factions – the sort of subtle, fan-the-flames-without-really-seeming-to strategy that I’m pretty sure the Mafia were engaging in on Day 2.
[/QUOTE]

Since you mentioned this, I want to point out what I said from the second post you mentioned:

The only concrete evidence we gain will come from dead bodies. We need to choose one that will give us the most.

I wanted to see if my network theory would work out. Now that Pleonast and Zuma seem to be masons, I have given up on my theory. Now I need to look for something else.

Though if we decide to lynch Sturmhauke, we have a good record of who defended him on day 1 and 2. I’m just saying…