I thought the sturmhauke wagon was particularly ill-founded. It was largely ignored that the first three nightkills were done by three seperate groups, none of whom collaborated. Therefore, it’s silly to say that a particular poster is “missing” from the list.
Aguecheek was saying that because the mafia didn’t kill sturmhauke, he must be one of them. By inference, he also said that because the vig and SK didn’t kill him, he must be mafia as well. Do you see how only the first point has any relation with its conclusion, and the second two are completely irrelevant?
And the way he tried to convince us that sturm was scum involved some very torured math:
I utterly fail to see how that chain of logic leads to a 2/3 chance of sturm being scum. Again, there was ZERO communication between the three parties with guns. Therefore, there can be no correlation between them failing to kill him.
It’s pushing for a lynch on horribly flawed grounds. That’s anti-town.
I’m not denying that the Vig hurt us, but according to your logic we shouldn’t lynch anyone at all. Having the Vig on a leash is like getting to lynch two people a day, and if we’re incapable of telling the Vig who to kill, we’re incapable of lynching someone ourselves.
Then again, based on our history, maybe we shouldn’t be lynching anyone… :rolleyes:
Like 5, and ultimately 4, others did, including the Detective and currently town-approved Queuing. 3 former players were killed, and he wasn’t. Random.org, or random chance based on the other three victims’ past history? Both are just as reliable. My fault was trying to present a little background into it, however tortured it may be. I wanted to give some kind of reasoning.
If you got that from my post, I didn’t mean to put it there. I was surprised he wasn’t killed when the others were and thought that was as good a reason as any other.
Math and I are not very close friends. My apologies for that. I’ve also given up on trying to figure out Blaster Master’s early math post on cops and someone else’s early post on the need to keep the SK around, using numbers.
You’re entirely correct, and I see that now. In my zeal to present my argument on the very first day, I did not even stop to think on that.
Yup.
So you say. I say it’s trying to justify a random vote so as not to come off looking like someone buying scratchoff lottery tickets and hoping to win a million dollars. Failed on both counts, and now I’ve got you and Queuing all over me like white on rice for it.
May I now return to my attempt to work out what nesta might have left for us? As horribly tortured as it may be?
All right, is there any way to quote a post that’s quoting another post? I tried hitting the Reply button to pimaspinner’s post, which quoted my original, and all it brings up in the edit box is her (?) comments, and not my originals. Well, hopefully this will be clear, but if anyone knows how I can manage to quote everything at once, I’d be most grateful.
Every last blessed one of us has identified people as scum who have turned out to be town. We lynched two townies. If I’m going to judge JSexton on the basis of one scum/not scum list that turned out to be less than 100% accurate, then pretty much I have to judge everyone in the same way. I am basing my opinion of JSexton’s orientation on chrisk’s parting statements. It may change.
I never said I was sure. I said I was assuming, for the moment.
Fair enough. Can’t really respond to this outside of the context of the current post, though.
What? This idea by Rysto sounds exactly right to me. Do you believe that the Mafia will be voting in concert in every situation? Because, frankly, that’s insane.
An interpretation which you have pulled from exactly nowhere. And incidentally, didn’t you just say about six lines ago that you were suspicious of Rysto for saying that the Mafia would be doing exactly what you’ve just accused me of doing? Which is it? Am I scum voting for scum? Or would scum never do that, and therefore we should distrust Rysto?
I actually have no idea why this is odd to you. I think it’s just as valid an approach as the other. If we can eliminate certain names from consideration, we can look more closely at the suspects left over without as much static.
For the record, I stand behind my reasoning. I am still trying to look more closely at the people on my suspect list, but have had little time today to do so. I’d really rather not fling unfounded suspicion around without some consideration - the only person I mistrust right now, pending more in-depth study, is FCoD, so that’s where my vote stands. Leaping into the fray shouting “scum” at everyone in sight is exactly how we got into the mess we found ourselves in yesterday.
I made a very detailed post describing the differences bweten a vig kill and a lynch, and why I feel that a lynch is vastly superior. Information, chance for a claim, voting patterns, defenses, order of attack, etc. That post is what started this whole line of attack on me from zuma, which you are now piggybacking on.
Your post above is a blatant misrepresentation of what I’m saying.
How is voting to lynch someone any different from voting to have the Vig kill someone? The only difference that I can see is that only the former will end the day. Assuming, of course, that the Vig follows orders. We’ve already established that if he doesn’t, he dies, so I don’t think there’s anything to worry about.
You know, the more I think on this, the more it’s bothering me. On the face of them, the two statements quoted above - which came from the same post - are directly contradictory. One the one hand, you suspect Rysto because he suggests that the Mafia wouldn’t work in concert, that they’d vote for each other. You suspect him for saying this, which means you think it’s bad or wrong analysis, right?
But then, in the next paragraph, you’re accusing me of being Mafia voting for another Mafia. When Rysto makes this suggestion, it’s a sign that he might be scum; when you make this suggestion, it’s…?
So why the dissonance? I posit that you are Mafia yourself. You saw Rysto’s post and reacted to it, because it is obviously to the benefit of you and your paisanos for us to think that you’re voting in concert - that’ll throw us off the trail.
I won’t change my vote right now, because I still think FCoD should be carefully studied and I’m hoping my vote will make that happen, but I’d like to hear your response to this.
In my head it wasn’t contradictory. I just felt that Rysto pointing it out was a little scummy. Not that it wasn’t something the scum would do. And I think the scum are doing it. Maybe I didn’t iterate that correctly the first time.
Updated post list:
Blaster Master 154
zuma 125
Queuing 123
NAF1138 119
Gadarene 118
Fern Forest 67
MadTheSwine 59
FlyingCowOfDoom 57
Rysto 57
pimaspinner 54
Winston Smith 50
Autolycus 49
Malacandra 46
Pygmy Rugger 43
Kat 42
JSexton 42
storyteller0910 41
MonkeyMensch 40
glee 38
Lakai 38
Pleonast 38
chrisk 34
Suburban Plankton 34
Menocchio 32
Aguecheek 31
ArizonaTeach 30
brewha 28
nesta 27
kivvik 22
hocow 21
StarvingButStrong 19
CaerieD 18
Fretful Porpentine 17
sturmhauke 14
Smitty 13
While I agree with that the “Lynch all lurkers” strategy is not a very good one, does anyone have any read on smitty? How about Fretful Porcupine? Or Sturmhauke? Sturmhauke did post a helpful list of who voted for who, and a suspect (Pygmy Rugger) in post 1698 (FOS not list). Sturmhauke, along with JSexton, seems to have a lot of “rep” built up, based on last game. That does not apply at all here.
3 people are below someone who is dead. Someone who has been dead for a while. Yes, I know only 1 day and 1 night, but about a week in real time. I admit that the top posters are talking to damn much, but we need more info to go on.
We need info, the only way we get that is by people posting. At the very least, I think we could assume that these people are not cops as if they are they aren’t leaving any crumbs. This does not mean I want to know who the cops are, I don’t. They have had 3 nights of info. I hope that they stay alive 2 more days/nights and we can get their info dead or alive. If they don’t say anything, or if what they say is buried in the noise of 1800 posts that isn’t very effective either.
Also, Kat I would like to know if you have drawn any conclusions from this post
Fern Forest your 3 posts in a row, about math, and the names of users, what was that about?
:dubious: Seriously? You think the mafia have been straight forward with us and leading us to vote for them? I kinda figured that it’s the only given and sane conclusion that we can draw from what’s happened, that some of the people who encouraged voting for **Enfant Terrible ** and **Gadarene ** were mafia. Are you disputing that fact?
You’re not helping the “don’t lynch me” case that you really need to start building here by trying to distract and focus attention on what seems to me a pretty black and white statement, which for the benefit of the town was:
Maybe I should ask, is there anyone else who disagrees with that statement except for JSexton?
And with that post, I tie aguecheek, and with this one, I tie Menocchio! Watch your back, Suburban Plankton*!
Unless you’re counting useful posts, then I’m at like 5.
*Please realize that humorous statement was not meant to suggest I am actually going to do anything to Suburban Plankton.
.