Werewolf a game Part 2 (this time with MAFIA!)

The Game Room
1801

[QUOTE=FlyingCowOfDoom]
How is voting to lynch someone any different from voting to have the Vig kill someone? The only difference that I can see is that only the former will end the day. Assuming, of course, that the Vig follows orders. We’ve already established that if he doesn’t, he dies, so I don’t think there’s anything to worry about.

–FCOD
[/QUOTE]

Information and discussion time, but especially information. A kill following a lynch is firing blindly. Even with a conditional statement, it’s still limited, since we don’t know how the mafia follows up on it.

Also, it’s in the town’s interests to make the game last as long (in terms of game “days”) as possible. Statistically speaking, more kills make the game shorter, which is to the scum’s advantage. Also, BM may turn on us at a crucial juncture. Sure, we’ll kill him ten next day, after the damage is done.

We can’t just kill BM. He’s still a townie. But he’s also a liability. Tasking out the SK should be our first priority, but of course we should send him after mafia as well.

1802

Btw, I’m still suspicious about Chrisk. JSexton is playing the game exactly as he did in the previous game where he was town: agressive, confident, and often wrong.

But the question remains: is he really wrong, or just faking it? If JSexton was alone, I’d venture the former, but with chrisk’s inheritance, he’s at the top of my suspicion list right now.

1803

[QUOTE=Lakai]
Could day 1 have pasted without mafia voting for the lynched townie? I say we give **Zuma **and Pleonast the first choice from this list.
[/QUOTE]

No one has questioned this logic so I will bring it up again along with evidence of very questionable behavior from pimaspinner a few posts up. The list I was talking about included pimaspinner.

There has been fewer post today, which leads me to conclude that a few of you, like myself, have figured out how little you know. All we know is that **nesta **was mafia, the other dead weren’t, that **pleonast **and **zuma **are probably masons and that BM probably has a killing role. There is very little we can draw from this and it is a little upsetting.

The best way I think we can now root out mafia is by questioning suspicious behavior. Read through the thread, find someone saying something suspicious and have him answer to it. Hopefully we can question a mafia member who can’t explain himself. Meaning that we have someone who wants to hide their intentions. Don’t think that since no mafia members have been lynched by us that they won’t slip up. In fact, it looks like **pimaspinner ** has and can’t answer for it.

1804

There seems to be a trend going on here that I’m not entirely comfortable with. A good example is in this quote from Blaster Master, talking about JSexton:

[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
I agree that he has some ‘splainin’ to do, but I’m not prepared to vote. In fact, I think he’d make a better night target for me than a lynching target precisely because I think there’s a remote chance that he’s the SK
[/QUOTE]

My quarrel is not with the choice of targets, but rather than certain people would be better as “day” targets, and others better as “night” targets. I understand the arguments that have been made on this point, but I think they’re a bunch of hogwash.

There are two kinds of players in this game: Town and Scum. Scum are"bad"; they should be eliminated wherever and whenever possible. Town are “good”; they should be protected. End of discussion. All of this “I think he might be a bad guy, but we shouldn’t lynch him because it would be better off him to be taken out by someone overnight” stuff sounds like people are blowin’ smoke, trying to confuse the issue. If you think someone is scum, have the guts to say so, and call for their head. If you don’t want to put your own neck on the line, that’s fine, but then keep your mouth shut. Asking the Vigilante (or even worse, the Serial Killer) to do your dirty work for you is a cop out. It is also extremely dangerous if you aren’t 100% certain that you have properly identified all of the players.

I wholeheartedly agree with those who have pointed out that the Mafia were sitting back yesterday laughing at us as we dug ourselves deeper and deeper into a hole. I do; however, think that somewhere in there were a couple Mafia fanning the flames. And I think that a lot of this talk of contingency plans, and “Vigilante Kills vs. Town Kills”, and all that are just more smoke, designed to confuse us (and to subtly guide us to pick the “appropriate” nighttime target).

I think that we should stop telling the Vigilante who we want him to target at night. Let’s face it, we haven’t done a very good job so far, and we still don’t know for certain that *our *Vigilante is *the *Vigilante. Instead, let’s let Master Blaster pick whatever target he wants. Then *he *can tell *us *who he plans to target, so that he is still held accountable, and the rest of us can get on with the business of lynching Mafia members like we are supposed to be doing.

1805

[QUOTE=Aguecheek]
MonkeyMensch:

He’s already responded, going back through his posts, listing his voting history.

Here’s a couple, however, that spring up, when you read it, re: nesta, hocow, chrisk, Autolycus:

#697

#704

Although chrisk was at the top of his FOS list, he voted brewha.
[/quote]

I’m beginning to think that folks are just reading single posts after searching and not reading them in context. This was immediately following NAF’s announcement that chrisk was being replaced. Remember that?

You’re right there. It says nothing concrete because it’s referring to the werewolf game. And I don’t think there are any noobs in here anymore: anyone who went Day 2 of this game is a grizzled veteran.

1806

[QUOTE=ArizonaTeach]
:dubious: Seriously? You think the mafia have been straight forward with us and leading us to vote for them? I kinda figured that it’s the only given and sane conclusion that we can draw from what’s happened, that some of the people who encouraged voting for **Enfant Terrible ** and **Gadarene ** were mafia. Are you disputing that fact?
[/quote]

Have you forgotten the context? Originally, the conversation was about whether the scum were sitting back, posting only occasionally, and watching townies tear each other apart. You disagreed with that, saying that obviously the mafia were sowing discontent.

I’d like to know how you know that to be true, since, as I said, the only confirmed scum we have wasn’t posting much.

I’m not planning on building a “don’t lynch me” case. I’m planning on finding scum.

1807

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
I think that we should stop telling the Vigilante who we want him to target at night. Let’s face it, we haven’t done a very good job so far, and we still don’t know for certain that our Vigilante is the Vigilante. Instead, let’s let Master Blaster pick whatever target he wants. Then he can tell us who he plans to target, so that he is still held accountable, and the rest of us can get on with the business of lynching Mafia members like we are supposed to be doing.
[/QUOTE]

The problem is BM has a bad track record and isn’t trusted very much. What could you possibly gain from giving BM the sole choice in killings? Tell me how you are not scum trying to turn BM into a loose cannon? Or worst, BM is scum, and now you want the mafia to decide their own kill.

1808

And I’ve clearly mixed up who I was talking to; the original post was from FlyingCow, not ArizonaTeach. However, Arizona seems to b advocating the same thing as Cow, so the question to him is equally valid.

1809

OK, I’m going to quote the same statement again, because there’s a question that didn’t come to mind until after I had posted my last post:

Please explain to me how it would be better for the town to have the Serial Killer killed at night than to lynch him during the day. If we lynch him, then he is dead, and can’t do any more damage. If we let him live past dusk, then he gets the opportunity for one more kill. And since he knows that we want him dead (because we’ve already voted on it) you can bet he’s going to take out one more Citizen before he dies.

1810

[QUOTE=Lakai]
The problem is BM has a bad track record and isn’t trusted very much. What could you possibly gain from giving BM the sole choice in killings? Tell me how you are not scum trying to turn BM into a loose cannon? Or worst, BM is scum, and now you want the mafia to decide their own kill.
[/QUOTE]

The problem is that Blaster Master (I just can’t bring myself to refer to him by his initials) is already deciding his own kills; he’s just making it look like we are making the decision for him. Think about it. When Blaster Master made his claim, where was Winston Smith on everyone’s radar? He was nowhere! There were at least half a dozen people with more suspicion on them, yet somehow Winsotn’s name rose to the top. And, oops! He turned out to be town! Sorry folks!

We *all *have a bad track record right now. But if we keep picking targets for the Vigilante, and they keep coming up town, whose fault is it? Do we just suck at weeding out bad guys? Or is the Mafia influencing our choice? (Of course they are, the question is how successful they can continue to be). Or is Blaster Master influencing our choice so that he gets to kill whomever he wants? There’s no accountability.

Let Blaster Master pick whatever target he wants. Make him announce it. Then hold him accountable for it. If he continues to kill Citizens, then we get rid of him. Even if he is the Vigilante, and he is firmly on the town’s side, he is a liability if he keeps killing us.

As long as we tell him what to do, then he is not accountable for his own actions. He is the only person in town who has this luxury, and I don’t like it.

1811

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
OK, I’m going to quote the same statement again, because there’s a question that didn’t come to mind until after I had posted my last post:
Please explain to me how it would be better for the town to have the Serial Killer killed at night than to lynch him during the day. If we lynch him, then he is dead, and can’t do any more damage. If we let him live past dusk, then he gets the opportunity for one more kill. And since he knows that we want him dead (because we’ve already voted on it) you can bet he’s going to take out one more Citizen before he dies.
[/QUOTE]

Well, it would be better for Blaster Master, specifically, because it’d confirm him, and better for the town because we’d have one more confirmed citizen.

The chances that we’ll get SK with a lynching/vig kill is 1/30 (well, closer to 1/25 or something like that), so I’m inclined to let BM aim for the SK, since there’s only a 4% chance we’ll be targeting the SK with a random kill. This is, IMO, a reasonable risk to incur in order to obtain another confirmed townie.

1812

[QUOTE=Pygmy Rugger]
Well, it would be better for Blaster Master, specifically, because it’d confirm him, and better for the town because we’d have one more confirmed citizen.

The chances that we’ll get SK with a lynching/vig kill is 1/30 (well, closer to 1/25 or something like that), so I’m inclined to let BM aim for the SK, since there’s only a 4% chance we’ll be targeting the SK with a random kill. This is, IMO, a reasonable risk to incur in order to obtain another confirmed townie.
[/QUOTE]

The problem is that Blaster Master isn’t aiming for anyone except who we tell him to. And regardless, he has exactly the same 4% chance we do. My point is that if we think we know who the SK is, we should lynch him at our earliest opportunity, not let him live just so that the Vigilante can kill him. Sure, it “gives” us one more confirmed Citizen, but it also loses one for us when the SK gets to kill for one more night.

Blaster Master is telling us that it’s better for the Town if we let *him *kill the SK, rather than doing it ourselves. I disagree with him. It would *hurt *the town, because we would lose one more Citizen. We can’t afford to lose any more people; we’re already down 8 in just Two Days. This strikes me as just one more attempt from Blaster Master to tell us who to choose, instead of the other way around.

1813

[QUOTE=Queuing]
Fern Forest your 3 posts in a row, about math, and the names of users, what was that about?
[/QUOTE]
I was thinking in post about odds. Let me try an explain it better when I’m not tired and frustrated.

We have a set amount of scum randomly distributed through our group. Now take any smaller random group. The most likely scenario is that the ratio of scum in that group is similar to the ratio in the larger group. The random group I looked at dopers who played in both games. Take away the 4 confirmed or nearly confirmed townsfolk and the ratio of scum in the remaining players goes up. Now there is no guarantee that the ratio of scum among that group was originally higher but it is the most likely scenario.

If we started with 9 scum and 38 players then the ratio of scum among those players was 24%. And among the 11 players who played in the previous game, it’s most likely that they had the same percentage of scum, which in this case would mean 2.6 scum. That’s what we started with. Now we’ve removed 4 but from only one side. This leaves 7 remaining of that original group. And with those 2.6 scum in that group they now have a scum percentage of 38%. Now they can’t have 2.6, they can only have integers like 2 or 3 which relate to 29% or 43%. Both percentages are higher then town ratio would now be.

For the town at large our ratio has gone from 9 of 38 (24%) to 8 of 21 (28%). This means that it is most likely that the ratio of scum in that small group has gone up faster then the ratio of scum in the whole town. But again this is only odds and is only the most likely scenario given an infinite number of possibilities. In this game we’ve only got one possibility and it could be anything. But if we are truely and completely ignorant (which may be the case) we might be better off examining this group. Or any other random group you could come up with.

But I believe we have better ways to approach today then that. Namely by what people are saying.

[QUOTE=MonkeyMensch]
… anyone who went Day 2 of this game is a grizzled veteran.
[/QUOTE]

I was there man. You’d read a post and WHAM! two more were right there waiting for you. And so you did what you had to do, read them and hit refresh and WHAM, how you got dozen staring you in the face. It was … It … I need a hug man.

1814

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
The problem is that Blaster Master isn’t aiming for anyone except who we tell him to. And regardless, he has exactly the same 4% chance we do. My point is that if we think we know who the SK is, we should lynch him at our earliest opportunity, not let him live just so that the Vigilante can kill him. Sure, it “gives” us one more confirmed Citizen, but it also loses one for us when the SK gets to kill for one more night.

Blaster Master is telling us that it’s better for the Town if we let *him *kill the SK, rather than doing it ourselves. I disagree with him. It would *hurt *the town, because we would lose one more Citizen. We can’t afford to lose any more people; we’re already down 8 in just Two Days. This strikes me as just one more attempt from Blaster Master to tell us who to choose, instead of the other way around.
[/QUOTE]

I just don’t see us “knowing” who the SK is with greater than 4% certainty today. Perhaps tomorrow, or the next day, with some more info to go by.

I agree that he should be accountable for his kills, and at this point, he’s batting the same percentage we are (0%). JSexton might be right, in the near future, it may be better to lynch him, if he continues hurting the towns cause (regardless of who’s directing them). It would be much better for the town if he gets the SK, because his killing spree would then stop, and we wouldn’t have to take him out. Not having to lynch him makes up for losing the SKs target for that night. But again, the chances of him actually finding the SK tonight are pretty slim, so I don’t know what the best course of action is at this point. Tomorrow might be a different story, but for tonight, I say we try and let him find the SK.

1815

I’m not sure there’s a great deal of information to be gleaned from a reread of this monstrous thread at this point. As long as it is, in the end yesterday was largely a whole lot of frothing at the mouth. Looking over the voting record doesn’t seem to yield a great deal either; basically everyone voted for everyone else.

Now, I’m not saying it’s a total loss. For instance, pimaspinner is now raising a feeble defense of his feeble attacks yesterday. Is he clueless or trying to be sneaky? Queuing has not entirely fallen from my list of suspects. His actions so far are similar to Gadarene’s, so the question becomes, is he also an overzealous townie, or a Mafia agitator?

As for the question of directing Vig kills, I’m not convinced we should be giving Blaster Master orders (assuming he even is the real Vig). Right now we only have 1 dead Mafia and 7 townies, including one Mason and the Detective. The Mafia will want to get Blaster Master to kill a townie, and with their numbers right now they have a fair chance at influencing things to be in their favor. In the worst case scenario (Vig, SK, and Mafia all kill townies and not each other, only townies get lynched), the town loses on either Day 6 or 7*. Today is Day 3. With the way everyone is misjudging everyone else, the Vig might have a better shot of hitting a scum at random than by following orders.

*I agree with JSexton’s earlier assessment that 10 Mafia would break the game. Since 10 votes originally ended the day immediately, a 10-member Mafia’s best strategy would have been to immediately pile on someone every day. This would not stop until either the Vig or SK killed a Mafia. Now, it is possible that neither NAF nor any Mafia player realized this until after the 12 hour countdown was instituted. In that case, the maximum number of living Mafia is 9, and the town loses on Worst-case Day 6, when there will be 18 players (Mafia win if they number half or more). If the maximum number of Mafia is “only” 8, then the town is not outnumbered until the following day.

1816

[QUOTE=Suburban Plankton]
The problem is that Blaster Master (I just can’t bring myself to refer to him by his initials) is already deciding his own kills; he’s just making it look like we are making the decision for him. Think about it. When Blaster Master made his claim, where was Winston Smith on everyone’s radar? He was nowhere! There were at least half a dozen people with more suspicion on them, yet somehow Winsotn’s name rose to the top. And, oops! He turned out to be town! Sorry folks!

We *all *have a bad track record right now. But if we keep picking targets for the Vigilante, and they keep coming up town, whose fault is it? Do we just suck at weeding out bad guys? Or is the Mafia influencing our choice? (Of course they are, the question is how successful they can continue to be). Or is Blaster Master influencing our choice so that he gets to kill whomever he wants? There’s no accountability.

Let Blaster Master pick whatever target he wants. Make him announce it. Then hold him accountable for it. If he continues to kill Citizens, then we get rid of him. Even if he is the Vigilante, and he is firmly on the town’s side, he is a liability if he keeps killing us.

As long as we tell him what to do, then he is not accountable for his own actions. He is the only person in town who has this luxury, and I don’t like it.
[/QUOTE]

Why should Blaster Master be held accountable for his kill? Why not hold you accountable for your vote? I think the first two days have proved that anyone could easily vote for a citizen. Why should Blaster Master be killed if he makes another mistake?

We can’t let Blaster Master choose on his own because we still don’t know if he is mafia or not. Until I see Blaster Master kill scum, I will be against him deciding his own victim.

Tell me again how your argument doesn’t favor the mafia and helps the town?

1817

[QUOTE=hocow]
What would you like me to respond to? If it will help clear me in your mind, by all means ask and ye shall receive. The first 2 days were incredibly long, and I’ve been putting in rough hours at work so I wasn’t able to do a whole lot in a timely fashion. Not the case for a little while, I’ll be able to keep up.

The first day I admit I was all for jumping on the Enfant bandwagon. He pinged my FOS for reasons I don’t recall but are a moot point now anyway. I have already explained my suspicion of BM. However I have also played with the idea that he is the VIG, not the SK as I had originally expected. I’m not completely convinced as of this post, but I acknowledge the possibility that when I fingered him out for a kill role, my paranoia took over and automatically assumed scum killer.

Actually my main suspicion lies with Malacandra as she claims she cannot defend her accusations because it will cause Very Bad Things to happen to the town. I’m hiding nothing so I don’t see what she can possibly have to reveal. :dubious:
[/QUOTE]

nevermind

1818

So, after’s all the violence yesterday, is we any better off? Fuck this shit man.

1819

[QUOTE=Autolycus]
So, after’s all the violence yesterday, is we any better off? Fuck this shit man.
[/QUOTE]

Well, one of the enemy is down. That’s about 1000% better than usual.
As for BM, we should still vote his target, at least until he’s proven himself by killing scum. As for lynching the SK should we find them, I’d rather let BM take them out. Confirmation of BM, and hell, the SK killed the only scum to have died so far. Maybe they’ll take out another before they get the axe. Or knife. Or whatever the VIG’s weapon of choice is.

1820

[QUOTE=Fern Forest]
I was thinking in post about odds. Let me try an explain it better when I’m not tired and frustrated.

<most of post snipped out for brevity>

I was there man. You’d read a post and WHAM! two more were right there waiting for you. And so you did what you had to do, read them and hit refresh and WHAM, how you got dozen staring you in the face. It was … It … I need a hug man.
[/QUOTE]

This post got me thinking. Apparently Queuing is thinking the same.

What is the point of this post? What was the point of the other posts with odds or players and what letter of the alphabet their names start with. Between that and the fact the FF voted for me, I searched the thread. I found lots of posts by Fern Forest but no content.

I found two votes to lynch. One was for Strum becuase of who he was “drinking” with the night before. The other, for Pleonast I believe, was explained by just wanting to have a 3 way tie for 4 votes a piece.

The reason for the no content and no reasoning for votes? Fern Forest already knows who all the Mafia are.

Lynch Fern Forest