I’m tired of losing, too. Fully a third of the remaining players are scum. To me, this means we do have a good chance not to mislynch today, assuming we are not stupid. Anyone who seems to be lurking is going to be very suspicious to me toDay.
A few questions:
AllWalker - you seem to have garnered almost no suspicion. Why do you think that is? You seem to be voting Mahaloth for the same reason, almost, so I was wondering if you thought there was a major difference between you, other than numbers of posts.
Telcontar - why are you so sure Zeriel is ‘innocent’?
Elendil’s Heir - do you have anything at all you’d like to share with us as to why we shouldn’t kill you or who we should kill so that we don’t lose in the next two Days? Oredigger77 - You backed down from your mass-claim idea pretty fast. Why? It has gone pretty much unremarked since then. What do you think about it now?
rexnervous - I don’t necessarily disagree that it’s likely (on the odds) that there’s at least one experienced scum. But I think at this point we should really not be dividing players up like that arbitrarily, and it makes me a little :dubious: that you are pushing that angle, which implies less analysis and more random stabbing in the dark (although I note you are continuing to vote for Elendil). Also, what do you mean by ‘can we tell anything by the wolf voting’? I don’t understand what you mean there.
Zeriel - Have you been getting results? Are you going to share them with us at some point? (I’m not asking you to share them, I’m just wondering if there’s a reason you have not been).
I like to think that I’m throwing my weight around more than Mahaloth, but if that were true I would have been accused a lot more.
I don’t know if there is a difference in strategy between us two, but that doesn’t mean we are both guilty, or innocent. I get the nagging suspicion that the whole town is getting played by a few clever players - IANA mathematician, but according to my calculations if we were voting blindly we have much better than even odds of killing a wolf by now. That means we are either unlucky, or we are being played.
So I believe we need to consider those players who we haven’t considered yet, especially those with a high post count. By all means, suspect me. I don’t know how I have avoided scrutiny, but it is wrong to do so. I’m innocent, but you can’t know that.
(For those interested, by calculation was assuming 4 wolves.
On Day 1, we have 14/18 chance of lynching town
On Day 2, we have 12/16 chance of lynching town
On Day 3, we have 10/14 chance of lynching town
So that means we have 141210/(181614) = 0.416’ of lynching only town. It doesn’t matter to me if that is exactly right, but I still believe, on a gut level, that random voting should have gotten us a wolf kill.)
Well, you shouldn’t kill me because I’m not a werewolf. I never was a werewolf. I’ve tried to be helpful where I could, and forthright always, but I have never yet directly accused anyone of BEING a werewolf, because I was never sure enough that I could reasonably do so. It seems that we’ve been flailing around and lynching people with very little to show for it. And one of the most accusatory people in the game has been you, Daphne. Just seems to me you’ve been stirring the pot an awful lot.
Who’s next? No one’s been more threatening to me than you, overall. So it goes.
I agree we need to look at those who haven’t been looked at. If the wolves (or most of 'em) are being as bland as possible, we can’t let that continue.
Your random vote hypothesis is lacking in at least one major aspect: the wolves aren’t voting at random!
I also agree that we should not allow ourselves as a town to vote for the vote leaders and have another near-unanimous lynch. That means we all need to do the legwork to develop cases on multiple players, rather than trying to decide on a lynch Right Now. We need to look at all the possibilities. Settling early has gotten us nowhere so far.
I have been ‘accusing’ a lot of people, yes, if by ‘accusing’ you mean questioning them and challenging them. Because the opposite, letting people slide by, is not pro-town. I probably helped get Freudian Slit lynched by getting on board her case early, which I regret now, obviously. Claiming I’ve been instrumental in us ‘lynching with very little to show for it’ is a remarkably twisted interpretation of the facts, though. My ‘accusations’ have mostly generated discussion (a good thing, as now there is a record for us to read), but I haven’t exactly been leading the town around by its nose. The record speaks for itself. Except for yours, of course.
Why is your criterion for who to lynch who has been most threatening to you?
This is a quick post. I’ll be back after close of play today[sup]1[/sup] with reasons for this.
Somebody said earlier Today that we can’t expect to get usable data from the Testerizer for another two days. The game may well be over by then.
My estimate is that we have one more mislynch before we arrive at Lynch or Lose (LyLo); that is, I believe we started with four Werewolves.
I therefore think we cannot blindly commit to lynching whoever we test today, unless the results make it possible we’ve Tested a werewolf. But those people who have p[laced lynch votes for the person they would test, please rethink, or at least be prepared to unvote the tested player if there is reason to.
[sup]1[/sup]A British expression which, in the context of work, means “at the end of the working day.”
I’m cool with that, but is there anything I can do to convince you otherwise? If you have your heart set on me, OK. I haven’t drawn attention, and I’m not sure why, but I’m not a wolf.
I have announced suspicions and I have laid our reasons before. There is not much more I can do than that.
Let me know what you would like to hear(and if it is reasonable, I will do it).
Well, in hind sight it was a bad idea. Mainly because the wolves are ranchers and farmers as well so they could have honestly claimed their sect and we would have accomplished nothing. I still think breaking the town in half and examining each half at a time is a good idea. I don’t have enough time to do a complete reread of every poster each Day so I’ve been doing something similar except I just look into either people that other people bring up or that say something suspicious during my first read through the thread.
I haven’t pushed my idea because it was soundly rejected so if I’m going to convince the town of something I would rather it be the direction of the lynch then following an idea to lead to a lynch.
I don’t get the kill from last Night. It seems to be completely random by taking out a low volume poster; my guess is they thought it might be a power role trying to hide. I don’t see any real benefit in looking through his suspects because he never built a large case against any one. After Seeker’s demise I only have two people on my suspect list, Telcontar and EH, which isn’t a good thing considering there is at least one more wolf and probably two in the remaining crowd. I doubt we’ll see any wolves trying to protect Tel from yesterDay since Seeker did such a wonderful job. I guess all that is left is a reread.
So, originally the story was that Seeker and I were suspicious because I was defending him on day 2, saying he was a new player and bound to be a bit random. Then it was that Seeker was protecting me yesterday because we were both wolves and i had a power role. Now that we know that seeker was 1.) innocent, and 2.) bound to be a bit silly to being new, you’d think I’d get some credit for having been initially right.
Zeriel’s results are unlikely to be of help to the town, I think he and Ich existed to make the farmer rancher end game less random. I’m mostly convinced he’s innocent because 1.) I assume that there is a rancher equivalent to Ich and 2.) no one has disputed Zeriel’s implicit claim to that role (he hasn’t actually claimed rancher, but 2 cops to the farmers would be a bit much…unless the ranchers have two doctors or something odd like that). Of course if there is a rancher cop other than Zeriel they really should come out. Their power is useless against the wolves and would be quite useful to us.
My only suspicion re zeriel is that he should have died two nights ago and, in the event that the wolves knew ich had a power role and killed him for that reason, he should really have died last night.
As I pointed out yesterday, there is something to looking at the people leading the charges against november, FS, and myself in that all were bad ideas. Having said that, only Freudian gives real information from that set. The first votes were: Daphne Black, Fluiddruid, rexnervous. They put FS on the map. The next votes were SoT&B, Justin Credible, Telcontar, Mahaloth.
Can you share the names of the people you’ve investigated if not their results? Not that I don’t completely trust you, but I don’t completely trust you.
Seeker’s play was fairly last minute (test seems to still equal lynch and there was barely time to switch to him). I think it is diagnostic that no one tried to do anything before he made his move, but that’s me. I’m somewhat suspicious of you for wanting to spare seeker and save him for later; even then we clearly couldn’t be certain he was a wolf and it turns out that saving him for a lynch or we lose situation would have given the game to the wolves.
Oh, someone didn’t like my logic that it hurts the town that the wolves have kept farmer rancher even. I think the endgame could get really messy if one faction realizes that they’ll lose even if they kill the last wolf, or if they decide that it is better to make a mistake if the player is an X rather than a Y.
Oredigger77 was saying that it might be diagnositic that no one tried to defend me when my head was on the block (if i was a wolf than another wolf might have made a serious accusation against someone else), but that this was less clear because seeker’s play saved me. I was adding that seeker moved at more or less the last minute, so if i was a wolf and another wolf was trying to save me by casting suspicion elsewhere then they would have needed to act earlier.
I think this is directed at me. I disagree because whether or not we claimed the situation would be the same. For instance one wolf remaining, 3 ranchers and 1 farmer, we know that we started off with an even mix of ranchers and farmers and have seen 6 farmers announced dead and 4 ranchers. The farmer will know that he needs to kill a rancher and have the wolf kill a rancher in order to win. If everyone was forced to claim and say the wolf claimed farmer then the farmer would know who the wolf was, it gives him an advantage but does not change what his goal is and increases the chance of town winning over all because the ranchers will have in narrowed down to two people for who the final wolf is. On the other hand if the wolf had claimed rancher then the ranchers aren’t going to want to kill the farmer because they’ve got him beat either way and the town can still increase its odds of finding the final wolf.
Well, lets see about that. The Day started on post #753, Seeker claimed in #833
It took until #897 for the test to happen, more then 24hrs of real time. So there were 144 total posts before the Test and 64 after Seeker claimed. Roughly 44% of the Test time was spent discussing that insanity so it wasn’t quite last minute and you only had 6 votes on you when he claimed. There was still plenty of time for the tide to turn.
I have to say, despite Oredigger’s last post, it certainly did feel late in the Day when Seeker dropped his fake bomb on us.
Even at the time, I commented that his recantation took place so late that not everyone would be able to be persuaded to unvote him(me included). With a lot of uncertainty about who to vote for, he provided an easy scapegoat.
Basically, I’m agreeing with Telcontar on his point. Keep in mind I still suspect Telcontar as my number one suspect, but his point is pretty valid there.
I agree when he went back to claiming townie it was at the very last second I’m talking about how much time the wolves had to jump into and save Tel. Basically at the time of Seeker’s claim Tel was barely in the lead, 4 votes, and still had 1/3 of the real time remaining. So I think the wolves not doing anything to save him means nothing.
Personally, I’m going back to my suspicion that the wolves might have an investigator of their own (admittedly less likely now that we’ve had a reveal that pedescribe screwed it up once and it’s no longer pat and even), which, combined with the slip, makes me return to
test MHaye
vote MHaye
As for Telcontar, I’m not interested in discussing my investigations at this time. You’re next on my list after MHaye for my suspicion of A) your plan and B) your style of throwing suspicion until it sticks while trying to snuggle up elsewhere.
I think we deserve a list of your investigations (names, not alignments). Makes it easier for us to tell if you’re lying later. I see no way you telling us this could hurt the town, or even your faction. If you’re going to use my advocacy of this as a reason to suspect me then you at least need to give reasons.
Care to remind us what you have against MHaye? it’s been awhile.
I’m as suspicious of **Telcontar **as the next person, but he has a point here - I see no reason why you, Zeriel, would not be more forthcoming about your power role. You have yet to provide any pro-town info, and in fact your claim and subsequent posts are as anti-town as anything yet posted.