I’m sure everyone in power in DC on all sides acknowledge the possibility of older candidates not making it to election time, and I’m sure even Biden himself is no exception.
I’m guessing that the “default” plan is Kamala Harris, but there are doubtlessly others. Any speculation as to what they may be? Would they be any good against Trump (or DeSantis if Trump also doesn’t make it)?
The Democrats have a deep, deep bench.
If they don’t just coronate Kamala, then the alternative is to just run a traditional straight-up primary. Bernie is too old, but Buttigieg, Klobuchar, etc. would give a full run for the money.
There is no “they” beyond the primary voters. So there is no backup plan.
The conventional wisdom is that Harris would win primaries, but, for reasons I don’t grok, she’s unpopular with voters that decide general elections, and primary voters would know that.
I recall that Klobuchar didn’t get far last time because of reports of being rough on her staff. So is Biden, but men in politics mostly get away with it. Buttigieg could be a great candidate but is high risk because LGBT tolerance may have peaked a few years ago.
These kinds of thoughts may be reasons why Biden’s determined to run again.
I agree, there is no “plan” because there is no “they.” In regard to how it would unfold if Biden were forced out of the race, a lot would depend on the timing. If he bowed out before or early in primary season, I think you would see several Democrats jump into the race. But given the compressed timeframe, the competitive candidates would be those with existing wide name recognition and the ability to raise a shitload of money fast. Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, Warren. Having a preexisting donor network will be crucial.
If it were after Biden has secured the nomination, then the party would almost certainly coalesce around Harris.
I’d personally like to see Warren win the nomination. I voted for her in '20; unfortunately, Biden had already clinched the nomination by the time it got to Virginia. (I’m not saying I don’t like Biden. I’m just saying I wanted Warren.)
Warren and Bernie are too old. If you want to get a progressive candidate a run then AOC will be 35 on election day.
How many voters would vote for a man over Trump, but wouldn’t vote for a woman? I fear it is a large enough number to limit Harris’ chances.
Given the only guy throwing their hat in the ring is RFK Jr, a verifiable nut job with zip, nah da experience (claims being on his uncles campaign will bear him in good stead) then the only way that bench could get on the ticket is dead man’s shoes.
Once there was “scratch any Governor, you get a presidential candidate”. Now it’s “scratch any apparatchik you get a front runner”.
Patently doing pastoral work is an impediment to a political career. Just feeding sound bites to the base., not leadership.
Have you noticed the polls? Currently Biden has a 63.2% preference, Kennedy 13.7% and Williamson at 5.3%:
I would have guessed Kennedy at about 3%-4%.
For lack of an alternative, Kennedy is the generic “Protest vote against Biden for [reasons] candidate”. Too liberal, not liberal enough, yadda yadda…
The fact that only Kennedy and Williamson are challenging, and the fact that Kennedy is in the double digits, are both meaningless, because both are true for the same reason: Absent death or a serious health crisis, it’s going to be Biden, and everyone knows that. When the President is running for a second term, there’s no point in any serious candidate entering the race, and there’s no point in any serious voter answering a primary poll. So the only candidates you get are jokes, and the only people you end up with in your poll are trolls.
Obviously, if Biden does die or have a serious health crisis, then this all changes. Serious candidates will enter the race, and serious voters will take the primary seriously.
Dateline, 2024:
From his hospital bed, President Biden went on camera to give a thumbs up and say “Remember, America, PETE CAN’T BE BEAT!”
Campaign ads featuring the line quickly went on the air, and yard signs have even started to show up.
My guess is that if Biden’s out, Gavin Newsome announces his candidacy the next day.
i believe the greatest concern at this point is that RFK Jr will foolishly run as a third-party candidate (after failing to gain the Democratic nomination). If he only draws a couple of percentage points of the vote, he could easily throw the election to the Republican candidate, even if it’s Trump (which it’s likely to be).
I’m still ticked that Ralph Nadar threw the 2000 election to G W Bush.
From what I’ve seen as a Californian, I doubt he’d wait an entire day.
Perhaps not on a national level, but I definitely think there is a very significant “they”: Biden and his team, as I alluded to in the OP. Obviously, they’re going to have a lion’s share of the influence on anyone else getting the nod, so I’m sure they’ve at least game planned it, and I was wondering whether they’d go any further than Harris, and if so, who.
Didn’t Clinton get 3 million more votes than Trump? Just in the wrong states.
There may not be enough people who refuse to vote for any woman at all to swing an election. The particular woman will matter to many people.
Most of those already disinclined to vote for a woman can easily find some reason not to vote for Harris.
There will be some people who do want to vote for her because she is a woman, hopefully because they also find her qualified for other reasons also.
I don’t see compelling reasons directly about her political ability and executive skills that indicate she would be the best candidate for the job, just good enough to win. But there is a compelling reason for many because she is the alternative to the very likely ‘elephant’ in the room. “She’s not Trump” may be a sufficient and successful slogan for the Democrats if this happens.
This recent poll of Democrats asked who they would vote for were Biden not on the ballot.
Harris 22%
Sanders 14%
Clinton 13% (If you think you don’t like the idea of Biden coasting to the nomination, how does Clinton-Sanders II: The Alzheimer’s Strikes Back sound to you?)
Newsome 10%
In the single digits: RFK Qr, Buttigieg, AOC, Warren, Abrams, Klobuchar, Pritzer
I imagine the Biden crew would try to steer things toward Harris, and there’s certainly nobody on that list who jumps out as a better candidate IMO, though I’d be reasonably happy with Newsome, Abrams, or Pritzer. I’d be ecstatic with AOC (in some parallel universe where she had a chance of beating the Republican), but it’s not happening this cycle.
The problem is that it’s at best Triple-A quality.
Not that the G.O.P. bench is major-league ready. 