What is a "normal" hurricane season?

Factual Questions
1

Looks like they’re predicting a lot of hurricanes for this summer. Again. (The hurricane watchers’ powers of divination weren’t so good last year, but never mind that.) This got me thinking. What is considered normal or average for hurricanes? It seems like they always expect an unusually busy hurricane season.

The cynical part of me is reminded of how every year, in the summer, the local meteorologists always say that we’re having a drought, because rainfall is below average this year. They have said this every summer, without fail, for as long as I can remember. Maybe they’re counting the year that Noah’s flood hit :wink:

2

Well, they are all ‘normal’ seasons. Average is another story, but they are used in confusing ways.

If today’s temp is forecast to be 81, our local meteorologist would say, “Today will be above normal – our usual high temperatire is 78.”

And here is an example of confusing:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

  1.  Entire U.S. coastline - 64% (average for last century is 52%)

  2.  U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 40% (average for last century is 31%)

  3.  Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 40% (average for last century is 30%)

  4.  Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Have fun figuring it all out. To me, yes it is above average, but nothing startling (and last year was below average but not startling either).

Pay attention to the trends over longer periods of time, which are even less startling.

3

1950-2000 Average

Named Storms (NS)
9.6

Named Storm Days (NSD)
49.1

Hurricanes (H)
5.9

Hurricane Days (HD)
24.5

Intense Hurricanes (IH)
2.3

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)
5.0