I can’t believe I forgot Tony LaRussa. :smack: He’s a lock.
I actually agree with everything you say about Baker, I hope you’re correct.
But I put him on the list because of the PR factor. This has been the deciding factor for many people going in or being kept out.
PR argument may keep Thomas out. 2 MVP’s will help alot.
Rafy’s numbers are too overwhelming and while I never thought he was a great player, I acknowledge that stat collectors go in.
Only tenth all time? Kick him to the curb! 
I’m a big Raffy fan, so I’ll go to bat for him here. He’s never been the guy to lead the league in HRs or average, but look at the number of times he’s finished in the top 10 in various offensive categories. Top 10 in average 5 times, OBP twice, slugging 7, OPS 7, walks 7, doubles 5, and home runs 11. That’s very good for a long time. His peak was never as high as Thomas, but he was consistent. Take a look at the list of similar batters on Baseball Reference: Frank Robinson, Eddie Murray, Reggie Jackson, Mel Ott, Dave Winfield… not bad company at all.
The steroid controversy hurts him, no doubt, especially since his HRs and slugging have fallen off the last couple of years. On the other hand, he could just be showing his age - he is 40 years old, and in the tail end of his career. He was more than just a home run hitter too, so I think it hurts him less than it hurts others.
Regarding Raffy: sometime in the next few weeks, he’ll get his 3000th hit, and he already has 500+ HR. Every eligible player who has reached either of those milestones is in the Hall. Even given that Hall voters may be discounting home run totals from the last 10-15 years (which is why McGriff won’t make it), the hits will be enough to put him in.
'Tis true that he has never been the best in the league at anything - but he’s was consistently above average for a long time, while many of those who led the league were inconsistent performers. He’s not a sure-thing first ballot inductee, but he’ll be there by his 3rd year of consideration, at the latest.
I think it may be a matter of personal dogma. Some voters really value counters like hits and HRs. I personally think those kinds of stats are vastly overrated. Staying healthy and playing for a long time at a very good, but not great, level is to be commended but it’s not HOF worthy to me. I’ll happily accept peoples difference of opinion on that, and I honestly am not sure what the actual HOF voters collective opinion is. there are examples where they value the counters, and examples where they don’t. Sometimes it’s a mystery. Though, I’m comfortable allowing for various methods of getting into the hall.
Enginerd, the reason I pointed out that he’s just 10th was because when you take into account that his primary purpose as a 4-5 hitter and 1B for his entire career has been to hit HRs and that his main accomplishment for hall consideration is the HRs totals, a guy who played for twenty seasons should be higher. I’m not diminishing it, but the length of time he played makes that measure less meaningful to me.
That also speaks to your other point where you listed his top 10 finishes in various categories, when you look at those totals (2, 7, 7, 5, 11) for each measure, when thats out of 20 seasons it almost looks to be a negative to me. Especially the OBP and OPS numbers, for a run producing 1B I would want more from a HOFer.
I guess my point is that he’s really great, and had he played 3B or even a corner OF position in the NL I’d be behind him moreso for HOF, but compared to other 1B/DH’s he leaves me feeling awfully unimpressed. I think Larry Walker’s performance is favorable, though the Colorado thing negates that some.
Lots of guys have been among the leader boards.
Generally speaking, Hall of Famers stand out more than Palmiero does. He’s a weird player, not really like any other candidate, in that he’s accumulated big lifetime numbers without ever really doing anything important. His teams have never been very successful. He’s never been considered the best player at his position, and never deserved to be. He’s been to fewer All-Star games than Tony Fernandez. He’s just been amazingly… well, unimportant. Ten years after he retires, people will largely forget he ever existed.
Well, exactly. Frank Robinson won MVP Awards in both leagues and played in five World Series and twelve All-Star Games. Comparing Palmiero to Robinson is insane; Robinson put up those numbers in an era when they scored a LOT fewer runs. He was a much, much better player than Palmiero. No contest at all. Jackson and Mel Ott were far better too.
Murray is actually a lot like Palmiero, and a lot of people questioned how easily he got it. But I’d take Murray, given the choice.
The next person to go into the Hall of Fame should always be the best one who isn’t in, and to my eye, Palmiero will have to wait for a lot of his contemporaries to get their plaques first.
Lets hope that all the voters don’t get him confused with Keith Hernandez.
Not sure if Torre is a lock. The salary disparity the Yankees have would make any coach look good.
The 4 rings in 5 years.
The Press likes him.
Player like him.
Friends with a lot of Hall of Famers that will campaign for him.
He was a very good player with an MVP & Batting title, strangely enough this adds votes.
Very few managers with 3 straight, all are in.
Finally: The really sad thing is the payroll disparity was as extreme 1996 to 2000 when they were winning it all.
All 5 years they were top 3 in spending but it was when they started spending completely out of control that they stopped winning. They have turned back into the 80’s Yankees and broke up the Great Team with no superstars concept for the Star at every position. Also they can’t judge pitching talent at all since George stopped listening to Gene Michaels who built the winning teams.
Will Barry Larkin get much consideration? He was the first of the new breed of shortstop that now includes Jeter, A-Rod and Nomar. There was a time when he was the league’s premier shortstop. He combined the hitting prowess of Ripken with the defensive skill of Ozzie Smith.
His hitting numbers are a little light, but he does have a World Series ring and an MVP. Maybe it’s a stretch, but he was and excellent player and maintained a consistently high level of play over his 19 year career. His various honors that attest to this include:
12 time all star
3 gold gloves
9 silver sluggers
Anyone think I’m crazy for at least giving him a shot at Cooperstown?
Not Crazy, But the very fact of all the other Great SS will work against him.
I forgot about Larkin. He’s actually probably quite deserving.
Yes on Larkin, considered the best SS in the NL for a long, long time. It isn’t his fault that a number of other great SS’s played at the same time.
No on Sosa, not after discounting for steroids, cork, and assholishness. Bonds will survive his discounts for steroids, not cork, but double assholishness (I would disqualify him). No on Palmeiro, too - for all of his numbers, he’s never been dominant. No on Piazza, he gets lumped in with DH’s since he never played a position adequately. Thomas maybe, because he’s been a better hitter for longer. Otherwise I’ll go with RickJay’s list.
LaRussa has been the best manager of his time at getting his players to perform, and he’s in. Torre will get in, but as an example both of the Yankee effect and of the had-great-players effect. He wasn’t much of a manager as such, as his record with the Braves, Cards, and Mets, shows, but he was the perfect man for that particular team. It may be worth mentioning that the core of that dynasty - Jeter, Williams, Posada, Rivera - came up from the farm system that Gene Michael and others cultivated while Steinbrenner was under suspension. Only when he came back, started meddling, trading prospects for short-term fill-ins in his impatience, did the good times end. The Yankee system is now almost barren and the expensive mercenaries are over the hill - so expect Brian Cashman to get fired any day now.
Oh yeah, McGwire - No, not with the steroid discount and his lame Senate testimony.
I’d have to say that Ripken started the SS revolution, not Larkin. But that’s nit-picking. They were both great. Larkin is going to suffer in the voting because of the way he tailed off. The voters tend to remember that sort of thing and ding aspirants for such.
I will personally eat a brick if McGwire doesn’t get in. Same for **Sosa{/b] and Bonds. Hell, Bonds, not ARod, has the best shot at breaking Aaron’s 755. He’s already above 700, for Christ’s sake.
For the others currently playing…if ARod stopped today I think he might not make it. He just barely qualifies time-wise and five years down the road the story would be what MIGHT have been…not what IS. But of course he’s still playing and he’s definitely on the path to induction.
Palmeiro - Give him 500 HR and 3000+ hits and he’ll get in.
Frank Thomas will be on the bubble due to the continuing stories of him conflicting with the press and his apparent loss of opportunity to injuries. Great hitter, though. And I seem to recall he played in the same college backfield as Bo Jackson. Woof.
Clemens and Maddux walk right in. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. We have been amazingly lucky to have the opportunity to watch these two pitch. They’re both top 20 all time pitchers. Amazing.
Sheffield will be on the bubble for extra-curricular reasons not relating to his numbers. But he’s close if he doesn’t get in.
I think Junior Griffey makes it. His numbers are acceptable and he’s certainly had a lot of hype. That helps.
Jeter, like ARod, just this year qualifies for the Hall. I think he’ll make it. He’s a bit short on the HOF standards (42.9) but well above the HoF monitor. And the NYC thing and playing on all those championships will do it.
Mariano Rivera I still don’t know. There’s simply no baseline for relief pitchers yet. God knows what the writers will do in any given year.
Glavine is another good one who’s hurting his chances with these years with the Mets. Again, those final sub-par years delay induction in many cases.
Biggio and Bagwell. I just don’t know about Biggio. However he might be a good guy his numbers don’t scream induction to me. 234 HR? 396 SB? 994RBI .286 BA? It all says ‘Good…not great.’ and that shouldn’t be enough. Bagwell’s a bit more like it. 446 HR…202 SB…1500+ RBI and a .297 BA makes him look close. Way closer than Biggio, at least. The fact that neither of them made the Series works against them.
Smoltz will be an interesting case. His counting stats won’t merit induction (164 Wins and 154 SV) but he’s certainly been in the spotlight enough in the glamour roles. I suppose voters will compare him to Eckersley. And he’ll come up short there. We’ll have to see.
Manny Ramirez is sure putting up the right numbers but if he stopped today there’d be a good argument against him. A couple more years and he gets right in if he doesn’t collapse.
Pedro goes right in. The great seasons and the Ring in BOSTON do it for him. He’s storied.
Pudge and Piazza both get in. No worries.
Alomar I think will have to live down the spitting incident but goes in. I think he goes in easier than Biggio, that’s for sure.
Kent and Boone don’t make it. They have arguments but fall short.
Olerud I think won’t make it whether he deserves it or not. The simple fact is that the voters don’t care about OBP much and that’s what he brings to the table. He’s averaged 19 HR and 90 RBI per 162 games. Combine that with a lifetime .295 average and he’s going to get filed under ‘nice guy but’ and be on the outside looking in.
And I’ve just GOT to comment.
Rick, this way lies madness. There will ALWAYS be SOMEONE who’s ‘the best who isn’t in’. Eventually we’ll end up with Greg Gagne getting into the Hall via that method.
I prefer a high level. I’d kick people out if I could.
Well, no, not if you’re only picking two or three guys a year.
The Hall of Fame has about two players for every year of major league baseball history, and presently averages about three inductions a year (it gusts up and down.) In my opinion, that’s exactly the right number. If you limit the selections to two or three a year, you would literally have candidates coming down the pike as fast as you could elect them.
There’s no rule limiting inductees to 2 or 3 a year. You could catch up with a helluva backlog pretty quickly under the RickJay rule, and yes, eventually Herb Washington would be in.
Am I the only one here who expects a steroid discount for the big boppers of the Nineties? Sure looks that way. I’m sure that’s a large part of Canseco’s snubbing despite his HR totals; why wouldn’t it apply to Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire?
I’m not seeing A-Rod as a maybe. If he never played again, he’d be the all-time home run leader at shortstop, I believe, he’d have over 400 total, six straight years of 40-plus, he’s a career .300 hitter, a 40-40 man, an MVP and a multiple Gold Glover, and he’s led the league in nearly every major category. He currently stands 4th among all players not yet Hall-eligible on the HOF monitor, and the three guys above him all have 20 year resumes. If his career ended and he didn’t get inducted, the only possible explanation would be that the voters were punishing him for not ending up as one of the five greatest of all time. 11 seasons is enough when they’re the 11 he’s had.
Yeah, but the fact is that Canseco’s image has, literally, ALWAYS been negative. After the 40-40 season when he started to cash in (remember the 1-900 number for what he ate for breakfast?). Later that just got worse. Then the pitching injury and the home-run-off-his-head. Top that with his book and he’s dug himself a hole.
Bonds, Sosa and McGwire, on the other hand, during the late 1990s moved into the ‘mythic’ category akin to Ryan and Ripken.
Maddux is a definite lock, as is Clemens (and probably Randy Johnson, just for posting that many Ks for that many years.) Glavine’s stint as a Met is killing him, especially since he should have had 300 wins by now, but he’ll get in.
Smoltz doesn’t have a shot. If he’d stayed a closer and gotten another 100 saves, maybe. One Cy Young Award and less than 200 wins isn’t a HoF career as a starter, and he doesn’t compare well to Eck as a pitcher who made the transition.
Pedro and Schilling get in. Pedro for being unhittable for 7 years, and Schilling for solid strikeout numbers and being a Yankee-killer with the D’Backs and Sox in the postseason. The bloody sock and the Greatest Comeback Ever will stay with people.
Eric Gagne would have to have about five more years like 2003 to be a lock.
I agree that Palmeiro may be the most nondescript HoF candidate ever. He’s got the 500 HRs and will get 3000 hits, but to be honest, when you have to stop and think about if he’s a Ranger or an Oriole this year, that’s not a good sign.
Sosa’s the iffiest of the Bonds-Sosa-McGwire-Griffey quartet, because of steroids and the corked bat. McGwire hurt his chances with that Senate dog-and-pony show, but he’ll get in. Bonds is a lock even if there’s video evidence of him taking steroids. Junior Griffey gets in, but he should probably be in the “Missed Opportunities” wing with Frank Thomas if he does.
My picks:
Manny Ramirez - As of right now, he’s borderline, but by next year he’ll have cemented himself, plus he’s gonna get the bump that Pedro and Schilling get from the 2004 World Series.
Jeter and A-Rod - I’d say A-Rod has the better shot. Jeter isn’t quite the hitter or fielder people think he is. A-Rod gets to 500 homers and he’s a lock.
Borderline:
These guys are better fielders than hitters, but still have a shot:
Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen - Edmonds has just over 300 homers and 1500 hits right now, but he’s got 7 Gold Gloves already. Rolen’s kind of in the same boat, in that he’s not a huge power guy, but his fielding is spectacular. They’re kind of on the edge, and Edmonds probably won’t get in. Rolen could, since the two best 3B in the hall are Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews, both of whom barely topped the 500 HR mark.