At the time, yes - but are any of them still seen that way now, to say nothing of when their turns on the ballot come up? I do expect a lot of Yes votes to have turned to No by then, and we’ll find out first with Mac.
I’m 95% sure he was a Tight End at Auburn, played with Bo, but wasn’t in the backfield. Still, pretty impressive for a guy that’s gotten tagged with the “fragile and unathletic label” lately.
I agree with most of this, except for the part where you think Sosa is the least likely. McGwire has much worse PR than Sosa, which is saying something. Keep in mind that Sosa really has never been closely linked to steriods. Not saying he’s innocent, but compared to Bonds, Sheffield, Giambi, McGwire, Raffy and a few other guys, he’s stayed pretty much in the clear. The only thing that gets him accused is the HR numbers and the Senate hearing invite, otherwise he’s avoided anything incriminating. Not saying the guy is innocent, but of the two McGwire’s a lot more iffy to me. Plus Griffey has spent so much time hurt, and is such a “what could have been” story he’s probably lower on the list too. Sosa’s been a part of some real Kodak moments which always helps your chances too.
That said, I think they all get in…not sure if they should though.
Couple other comments:
Smoltz just feels like a HOFer to me. A measure which is hard to quantify, but one that I think should be a acceptable rationale for getting into the hall. The guy was dominant for a long time. People tend to forget how incredible that run by the Braves has been, winning the division just about every year since the dawn of time. Without the multiple WS rings it just doesn’t look as awesome, I think that is a little unfair. Not winning it all is a factor, but what they did accomplish is impressive enough to put a pretty bright shine on the main players in that run. Smoltz played a key role in that. I would use that to put both Smoltz and Glavine in, regardless of how the numbers stack up when taken out of context. Maddux is obviously a no-brainer.
I like Larkin’s chances too. I think he’s worthy, but I agree that the magnificence of his contemporaries at his position will make it hard for him. One detail that will really help him is the fact that he played his entire 19 year career with one team. That has value to me. The guy is beloved in Cincy.
Jeter is a lock. I think the stat-heads are a little myopic here. Like I mentioned for some of the guys above, he’s got some of the brightest Kodak moments in memory. That has tons of value. The WS rings and continued dominace of his team is impressive too. More than just about anyone in baseball, he feels like a HOFer. I know he’s not as good as alot of guys at the position currently, but he’s played a difficult position on a high profile team for a long time well. He’s got good, if not great, offensive numbers. If he were a .250 hitter with big moments, sure keep him out, but he’s been well above average with huge moments…that puts him in.
There’s also the incident when he publicly offered to take a drug test, Rick Reilly called him on it, and he stomped off instead. Sosa may not have been rubbed in our faces as much as the others, despite his remarkable growth spurt in Chicago, but there’s really no more doubt about him than them.
Your description perfectly fits Steve Garvey. Absolutely bang on. Steve’s not in the Hall of Fame yet and his chances are not looking good.
Fits Keith Hernandez, too. He’s not even eligible anymore.
The further you get from a player’s career, the more it’s just about the numbers. Jeter needs more numbers. He can get them - he’s good enough to play a long time and amass big lifetime totals - but he’s not there yet.
Totally argee here. I think both these guys will deserve to be in using the Wizard of Oz corallary. Their defense is just so spectacular at difficult positions, the somewhat impressive offensive numbers are pure gravy. Both guys have generated a fair number of “Oh Wow” plays for me, as much as it pains me to say being a Cubs fan and all.
So let’s talk steroids – will steroids keep anybody out of the Hall of Fame? On the one hand, I see players like Barry Bonds, where the suspicions of steroid use are very strong, almost certainly going in (unless he’s caught shooting up or something). On the other hand, you’ve got people like McGwire who I can’t see getting in, largely because of the steroid controversy. Does this play out in any consistent way, especially given the absence of proof for most of these cases?
I disagree. Garvey’s numbers a pretty similar to Jeters. However, Garvey spent most of his career playing first base, a traditionally offensive position, not SS like Jeter. Jeter has a much bigger effect on the outcome of his games both offensively and defensively than Garvey. Garvey wasn’t exactly a stellar defender either. When you’re talking about a SS putting up first baseman like numbers, either the SS is very good or the 1B is very medicore. In this case, I’d say it’s a little of both.
Jeter’s “big” moments dwarf Garvey’s. The WS play and constant post season experince are no comparison. Jeter has been in twice as many postseason games in half the career that Garvey has. Even when you consider how good the Dodgers were for that stretch, it’s no comparison to Jeter being the captain of the Yankees in one of their most dominant stretches ever.
Take everything I said about Garvey, and apply it to Hernandez times 2.
Agree with your statement about how time effects peoples measuring sticks. I just don’t think it should. It’s the lack of context that has kept deserving guys like Gossage, Morris, Dawson and Santo out.
The difference between Bonds and McGwire is that Bonds is one of the five or six greatest players in the game’s history and was obviously a Hall of Fame type player long before he started using the cream and the clear.
McGwire isn’t a terrific Hall candidate to start with; he was a hell of a hitter but he had a very short career and it’s not like he carries a lot of defensive value. He’s a Hall of Famer based on his raw accomplishments, but if you discount him for roids, he probably drops below HoF level. Without steroids it’s possible he never would have had those huge years in St. Louis.
Personally I would still vote for him because there wasn’t any rule against it, so far as I know. But he will probably not sail in easily.
I wouldn’t be so certain. Public and press sentiment has turned badly against him, and the effects of steroids are so blatantly obvious on his career that it will always be in the front of voters minds.
Look at it like this - while always a great home run hitter, McGwire averaged 36.5 HR’s (throwing out injury seasons in 93 and 94) a season until 1996, when he sudenly zoomed up to 52, 58, 70, and 65 in the next four years. If we give him consistent performances (non-steroid aided) for 13 seasons, that would give him 468 HR’s, plus the 18 in the injury seasons and the 3 in his rookie year leaves him at 489, short of the automatic entry.
Add to that he hit for a mediocre average, struck out a lot, and that most of his league-leading stats came in the steroid years, a case can be made against him.
I think he could have stayed clean and made the numbers necessary to get in, but the fact that he used PED will keep him out, at least for a few years.
It may be that steroid use shortened McGwire’s career, by making him especially injury-prone toward the end. Perhaps he’d still be playing, still hitting 30 a year or so, today without it, and would eventually have retired with a higher total.
But if we try to judge candidates by what they *might * have done *if * things had been different, that way lies madness. Mac did use the stuff, he did put up the numbers he did, he did have the influence on the game that he did, and it has to stop there.
His first-ballot vote count will be a good indicator of the size of the discount the others of that group will face. That’s next year, right?
How can anyone say Garvey was not so good defensively at 1st? Hell, he held the record for consecutive games played at the position without an E!
One name that hasn’t been mentioned yet: Trevor Hoffman. He’s got the years, he’s closing in on the all-time record for number of saves, he’s constantly adjusted his game and mechanics to stay at the top, and he has the highest saves ratio of ANY closer, ever. More years than Rivera, too, who should go in.
Added bonus: voters seem to like a guy who sticks with one club for the duration. That helps Larkin. Tony Gwynn is a lock anyway (not that he pertains to the OP, since he’s retired), but he still gets respect for sticking it out with one club. This helps Bagwell and Biggio as well.
And, other than 3 saves with Florida early in his career, Hoffman has them all with one club. In fact, when he got save #400, the club touted him up to the fans, but in interviews, he said that he didn’t coount the first 3 since they weren’t with the Padres, so he felt he hadn’t reached a milstone until #403.
Never said Garvey was a bad defender, just pointing out that he wasn’t stellar. Much like Jeter, above average, but not legendary or the best at his position. He only had 4 gold gloves in 19 seasons, all early in his career. If you’ve ever taken the time to watch a guy who is exceptional at first base (see Derrick Lee) you know the difference.
I still haven’t made up my mind on Closers going into the Hall yet. Hoffman certainly would be on that list of guys who are in the argument. Interestingly Baseball-Reference has his HOF monitor score at exactly 100. (>100 makes you likely) However, knowing how pointless and overrated the save stat is it’s tough to argue for closers. I’d look at the overall number of appearances, ERA and WHIP and compare his K/9 to the legendary guys. Then you’ve got to think about how important a player he was in the grand scheme of things. I’m not opposed to letting in a reliever, but I find it hard to rationalize doing so based on the save stat and how few innings they pitch overall.
According to every honest analysis I have ever seen of Jeter’s defense, he has been a generally terrible fielder his entire career. Last year he gusted up to “decent.”
Jeter has averaged almost 200 hits a season for his whole career (he’s already up to 1,825), he’s an over .300 hitter, and he’s a winner, which I think the Hall guys love. That’ll get him in if he keeps it up.
I’d like to think Smoltz will get in, but I don’t know. He had some excellent years as a starter, some great years as a closer, and he’s doing very well back in the rotation this year. He’s also been a super-clutch postseason performer his whole career and I think that helps a lot. The career ERA of 3.25 probably looks pretty damn good in this era, too. He’s approaching the top 30 in all-time strikeouts, and he may have a few years left. If he gets to 200 wins, that helps.
Mo Riviera is in, too. If only one true closer ever gets in, he’s it because - unlike most closers - he’s been dominant for an extended period of time. Last year aside, he’s always been lights-out in the playoffs. He won a World Series MVP, after all.
As I like to say, Jeter seems to play every position other than his very well, since most of his defense seems to be sailing around the field playing left field, 3rd base, 2nd base and catcher. He has no range at shortstop.
As far as closers who could be in the Hall:
Trevor Hoffman - He’s been around seemingly forever, and has racked up a huge save total for playing in San Diego. Even now that he’s basically nothing but a junkballer, he’s still one of the top closers in the game today. Definitely has the length-of-career with this being his 13th year of closing, and he’s third all-time on the saves list, ahead of Eck and Rollie Fingers (both HoFers.)
Mariano Rivera - In the top 10 on the career saves list, and he was the most dominant closer for most of the 90’s, although he’s really slipped since 2001 (IMO.) If he can hang around for another 3-4 years and continue to put up 30-40 saves per year, I think he’s in.
Other than that, I don’t see anyone particularly compelling. John Franco was never The Man despite having over 400 saves, and Troy Percival and Robb Nen aren’t gonna get in either.
I politely disagree with this assesment. Rivera has been the Yankee closer for the past eight seasons. In his first year, 1995, he was a starting pitcher (and not a very good one.) In 1996, he was the setup man for John Wetteland. I think there is the perception that he has gone downhill since 2001 because of game 7 of the world series last year and the rough outings against Boston in the postseason last year.
But I think an argument can be made that he has been just as good, if not better, the last fours seasons compared to the first four. Here are the numbers:
1997-2000 IP: 277 2/3 ERA: 2.13 Saves: 160 Blown: 23 K’s: 214 BB’s: 80
2001-2004 IP: 277 ERA: 2.11 Saves: 171 Blown: 21 K’s: 253 BB’s: 53
In fact, the two 50 or more saves seasons Rivera’s had have come in last four: 50 in 2001 and 53 last year.
His career ERA is 2.38, but his career ERA as a reliever is 2.07. This year he has 17 saves and 2 blown to go along with a 0.91 ERA.
The guy has been a joy to watch all these years. If he doesn’t make it into the hall, I don’t see how any closer can get in.
Whoops, that should have said that year not last year.
But…but…he dove into the stands!!! (Sort of).
Jeter is a lock to get into the HoF barring any career ending injuries and normal career decline arc (ie, no crashing and burning suddenly next year). He’s a very gifted offensive player who, while being not a great defensive shortstop, isn’t so terrible that he needs to be moved out of the position. Plus, he’s a winner and a leader.
I don’t know that you’ll find too many truly honest analysis’. Everyone either loves or loathes the guy. Sportswriters included.
For all the heat he takes for his defense, I can’t say I remember him making any significant errors in the post-season. His range might be average, but he’s got a accurate arm and handles most everything he gets to. Consider that his fielding percentage is .974 to Barry Larkin’s .968. Anyone who calls that terrible is a liar. His range factor is very low, but that could be attributed to the fact that he’s played his whole career with an impressive array of strikeout pitchers, probably a unprecedented roster. Their team K/9 was in the top 3 or 4 in the AL for every season he played. No other contemporary played behind pitching which was so consistently dominating. If a person were to adjust for that his range would probably move into the middle of the pack. When combined with his fielding percentage there is no way he’s “terrible”. He did win a gold glove too.