So the 2010 Oscar nods come out tomorrow, and as you remember, the slate is expanded to 10 nominees in the Best Picture category. Of the following films, which will be among those select 10?
I chose the following 8 titles:
Black Swan
True Grit
The Fighter
Social Network
The Kings Speech
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
Toy Story 3
…Plus “Some other film not listed,” because there will be one obscure film that hardly anybody has heard of (see last year’s An Education), and one popular sucess that nobody thought would get nominated (The Blind Side).
I’ve never heard of Another Year. So, that could qualify as your obscure film that hardly anybody has heard of. I chose all of them except Another Year, Blue Valentine, Shutter Island, and The Town. I’d like to see Kick Ass get nominated, so that could be your film that nobody sees coming.
I excluded Another Year, Shutter Island, The Town and Winter’s Bone. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Inception fall off in place of something more surprising, but I don’t know what. Blue Valentine is getting incredible buzz, but will enough people have seen it before nominations were made?
I chose
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Although I’m sure that won’t be right. I fear Winter’s Bone will be kicked for The Town, and Inception will be kicked for something that makes everybody go “WTF?? Where’d THAT come from??” like, yeah, The Blind Side. While Sandra Bullock’s performance got awards attention, the movie itself was almost completely absent in the precursors.
Personally, I’d kick The Kids Are All Right and Toy Story 3 (it has its own category) out in favor of Winter’s Bone and, just for the hell of it, Kick-Ass, but I’m not voting.
An Education was a surprise to a lot of people, but it wasn’t a surprise to anyone who followed Awards season. It was a lock from early on, as was a Best Actress nomination for Carey Mulligan’s performance. The big surprises were The Blind Side, A Serious Man, and to a lesser extent, The Messenger.
I saw Another Year earlier this evening and it’s not going to be nominated. Well, you never know but I don’t think so. It’s a very good movie, and I loved it, but it’s not in play. The performance of Leslie Manville is in play for Best Supporting Actress though. She was amazing. So was Imelda Staunton. She should be getting awards attention!
With the Best Animated Films category, wouldn’t that mean Toy Story 3 is unlikely to get a nod for Best Pic as well?
I’m all too familiar with the Academy’s OLD rules for Best pic nominations (in which case the 5 would be An Education, The Kids Are Alright, The King’s Speech, True Grit and Winter’s Bone, with the oscar going to King’s). However, those rules would have kept Up and District 9 waaaay out. So really, anything’s possible.
I’m calling The Tourist for a nomination! Because hey, we all know that the whole purpose of the Golden Globes is to give a preview for what MIGHT happen at the oscars…
I voted for Shutter Island because in a perfect world, it would be.
Nah, Pixar will always have a place in the Best Picture lineup. Well, maybe not Cars 2. Up was nominated in both categories last year.
I love Pixar. I do. I loved TS3 and Up, I did, but to me, since Animated has its own category now, a place in the BP lineup is just taking a spot away from another film that needs that spot and that attention, so I can’t help fighting an internal battle between my love for the movies, and my resentment toward them.
fusoya, I assume you meant The Social Network? Thanks for mentioning Winter’s Bone in your 5.
pepperlandgirl, I agree about Shutter Island. I would love to see that nominated. I’d rather see it there than Toy Story 3.
Imagine a year when a great Scorsese movie is the unlikely-to-be-nominated underdog? How bizarre is that?
I can’t see **Shutter Island **getting any kind of recognition. That film was pushed back so many times and finally ended up opening in the dumping ground of February. I don’t remember it getting that great of a critical reception either, but I could just be forgetting.
I forgot the **Up **was nominated last year! In the case, my predicts are:
**
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
127 Hours
The Fighter
**
plus one surprise nomination.
(In which case, I may have actually seen all the nominated films before they even get nominated!)
Inception, True Grit, The Town, and Shutter Island can’t possibly be nominated, because I’ve actually seen them already 
I really can’t imagine why The Town would get nominated for anything, but the others were pretty decent. I haven’t seen Black Swan, Winter’s Bone or 127 Hours yet, but I expect that they’ll all be nominated based on what I’ve heard about them. No clue what Another Year or Blue Valentine are, and The Fighter’s trailers make it look unlikely to be nominated for anything.
Not only will it be nominated for several awards, it’s quite likely to win, at the very least, Best Supporting Actor for Christian Bale, and Best Supporting Actress for Melissa Leo. Sure, the wins aren’t set in stone, but don’t be surprised, especially Bale’s win. And, if any of the nominated movies is likely to sneak past The King’s Speech and The Social Network, which might be so close as to cancel each other out, to steal Best Picture, it’ll be The Fighter. You heard it here first! I predict these nominations for The Fighter:
Best Picture (possible win)
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (possible win)
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo (possible win)
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
Best Original Screenplay
Best Editing
I don’t see it winning Director, Screenplay or Editing.
Not a single surprise in the Best Picture race. Perhaps one of the easiest to call in recent memory.
The ten films nominated are:
**
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone**
The only one of those ten I have not seen is Winter’s Bone.
I got 9 out of 10 – I had selected Blue Valentine over Winter’s Bone, and that’s the “little-seen critical darling” that could have gone either way, although BV really hasn’t had a wide release yet.
And Equipose is absolutely correct about The Fighter - he was right about the nominations (don’t know about editing) and Christian Bale is almost a lock for the win. I thought Leo (and Adams) were great, but I hope the Supporting Actress goes to Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit – the Academy seems to love very young supporting actresses.
I’ve seen 6 of the 10 so far, with The Kids… waiting in my DVD player. I’ll probably see Black Swan this weekend. That leaves 127 Hours and Winter’s Bone left, which I think are or will be out on video before the ceremony. This might be the first year ever that I’ve seen all the BP nominees.
I have not seen any of the 10 yet, but I’ll be seeing all the nominees in the 2 Saturdays before the Oscars.
In some cases (Social Network, Inception, Toy Story), I wanted to see them but never got around to it – the second half of 2010 was very busy for me. Others (Black Swan, True Grit, The Fighter) I intentionally stayed away from knowing I’d probably see them during this event. The rest either didn’t catch my interest or even show up on my radar at all until the Oscar buzz began.
I recommend this showcase for any movie fans. Been going since 2007 and I’ve always enjoyed it – and I’ve seen some great films I might otherwise have missed.
I’m amazed. I was 10 for 10 on my Best Picture choices, and 7 for 7 on my The Fighter predictions!
I’ve seen all the movies, but I hope to do the AMC BP marathon this year. I had been going in years past, but missed it last year due to work.
Yep, it got Editing. She, btw.