Which voter group is going to most largely determine the outcome of this election?

[xanthous]

I mean, I’m sure a case could be made for several (or all) put together, but is there ONE group that’s going to cinch it? I hear all of this about Independents determining the election, but is it the Independents that are giving McCain the bump in the polls he’s got right now, or are CCs, or the Republican base?

1. Independents
2. Conservative Christians
3. Women
4. Middle income and below
5. Party base

Have I forgotten any voter groups? (I’m kind of thinking more generally about the larger, “likely voter” groups) Am I thinking about this too simply?

[Cisco]

It would’ve been the conservative christians, by staying home. Now with Palin on the ticket the whole election is up in the air, IMO. We’ll probably only find out in the following days and weeks.

[Phlosphr]

I’d say a 50/50 split between base and CC’s giving McCain a bump [small] and as for who will decide the election? I’m going to go out on a limb here and nominate someone that didn’t make your list, First time voters. Millions alone in the primaries, and much of the firsts are students and people in the 25-35 bracket.

[xanthous]

@Phlosphr

I’d say a 50/50 split between base and CC’s giving McCain a bump [small] and as for who will decide the election? I’m going to go out on a limb here and nominate someone that didn’t make your list, First time voters. Millions alone in the primaries, and much of the firsts are students and people in the 25-35 bracket.

Of course, good catch.

1. Independents
2. Conservative Christians
3. Women
4. Middle income and below
5. Party base
6. First-time voters

[Jas09]

I will also add one not on your list. Based on my reading of the current map I think Obama’s easiest route to victory is Kerry States + Iowa + NH + NM + CO (actually swapping NV for CO would produce 269, and of course NV for NM is equally valid). Because of this I will identify Hispanics as the group most likely to determine the election. Bush did relatively well with this demo - a large change here could make the difference.

[xanthous]

@Jas09

I will also add one not on your list. Based on my reading of the current map I think Obama’s easiest route to victory is Kerry States + Iowa + NH + NM + CO (actually swapping NV for CO would produce 269, and of course NV for NM is equally valid). Because of this I will identify Hispanics as the group most likely to determine the election. Bush did relatively well with this demo - a large change here could make the difference.

My original list included Hispanics and African Americans, but I wasn’t sure how truly game-changing they, as voter groups, might be, when stacked up against the others…

1. Independents
2. Conservative Christians
3. Women
4. Middle income and below
5. Party base
6. First-time voters
7. Hispanics
8. African Americans

[gonzomax]

I think Virginia has 50,000 new registrations., that is not unusual this race. We have expanded the base in Michigan quite a lot too. More spin on the ball.

[erislover]

@xanthous

1. Independents
2. Conservative Christians
3. Women
4. Middle income and below
5. Party base
6. First-time voters
7. Hispanics
8. African Americans

9. Racists

Would that it weren’t so. But I bet (9) will determine this election.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

Young people and minorities, most notably black and hispanic people.

[tomndebb]

I’d say the group that votes in the largest numbers in sufficient states to give McCain or Obama enough electoral votes.

[WF_Tomba]

Does it even make sense to say that any one minority group of voters “determines” the outcome of the election? I am inclined to reject the whole concept.

[BrainGlutton]

10. Diebold.

::d&r::

[Lakai]

@xanthous

My original list included Hispanics and African Americans, but I wasn’t sure how truly game-changing they, as voter groups, might be, when stacked up against the others…

1. Independents
2. Conservative Christians
3. Women
4. Middle income and below
5. Party base
6. First-time voters
7. Hispanics
8. African Americans

We know how everyone there is going to vote except Independents. Women is too broad of a category. Since Democrats have a 11 million newly registered voter lead, I’d say they are going to get the First-time voters. The only mystery are Independents and moderates. Particularly the white working class. We know they are more likely to vote Democratic because of the 2006 elections, but we don’t know if they will vote for a black guy.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@WF_Tomba

Does it even make sense to say that any one minority group of voters “determines” the outcome of the election? I am inclined to reject the whole concept.

Well, nearsighted seniors who live in Palm Beach County determined the outcome of the 2000 election…

[BrainGlutton]

@Bryan_Ekers

Well, nearsighted seniors who live in Palm Beach County determined the outcome of the 2000 election…

I recall a bumper-sticker from shortly thereafter: “Jews for Buchanan!”

[BrainGlutton]

@erislover

9. Racists

Would that it weren’t so. But I bet (9) will determine this election.

The interesting question is, how many of them were supporting Clinton and will now switch over?

I wouldn’t take that possibility very seriously, but I recall all those voter interviews from the West Virginia Dem primary . . .

[The_Understander]

@BrainGlutton

The interesting question is, how many of them were supporting Clinton and will now switch over?

I wouldn’t take that possibility very seriously, but I recall all those voter interviews from the West Virginia Dem primary . . .

Yeah, but that’s West Virginia. I gulp think that Michigan and Pennsylvania will snap out of it…

Come on, Michigander Republicans! McCain had a chance to get a real expert on the economy in Mitt Romney and he blew it! He’s anti-Michigan! He roots for Ohio State! You gonna take that?

[Santo_Rugger]

@tomndebb

I’d say the group that votes in the largest numbers in sufficient states to give McCain or Obama enough electoral votes.

[Family Feud]Good answer, good answer!!![/FF]

[Phlosphr]

@BrainGlutton

10. Diebold.

::d&r::

I wish I had a cite, but NPR had Diebold CEO or some higher up on last week explaining the reduntant paper trail systems the machines were bing outfitted with…Hoepfully, it will help [cough]Obama[cough]

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

Skimming the comments on cnn.com’s Political Ticker (I know, I know…), I came across this one:

My 73 year old neighbor went to Lancaster PA yesterday to see mccain and palin speak at a rally. My neighbor is a staunch republican and has been all of her life. She is also very conservative and an evangelical christian. When she returned from the rally she knocked on my door and asked me something I thought I would never hear out of her mouth, she asked did she have to do anything to be able to vote Democratic in november. She said she could not vote this republican ticket. And this coming from a woman who voted for bush, twice.

What fascinates me about the comments in general over there is how strongly they’ve been skewing anti McCain/Palin and pro Obama/Biden recently. During previous parts of this election cycle there was a more even distribution of support for the two sides.