Who do Trump supporters vote for down-ticket?

Asking for a next level analysis of down-ticket impacts, and then perhaps what that implies moving forward.

Level one of course is the impact of those traditional GOP voters who just decide to stay home or cross over. It’s been talked about a fair amount but I am not so sure how big that will be. These are the reliable voters and they may leave the President box blank, or even split their ticket, but I suspect they will still by and large still come out and vote for their usual local, state, and Congressional choices.

The next level though I am more unsure about: those voting for Trump but clearly are not fans of the so-called “establishment” of the GOP and are clearly not primarily committed movement conservatives of any of the various stripes … voters voting for a GOP candidate who rejects many past sacred cows of GOP dogma and condemns many of its previous and current leaders.

Do they end up just going GOP down the line because they figure give him the majority that will approve his plans? Vote against those who were aligned with a mainstream that fought him? How do these people vote in elections with hard TPists? Do they just vote for President and leave?

It’s a good question. I would think a significant portion of Trump supporters are those who like him because they are anti-establishment, and so wouldn’t want to vote for any other establishment candidates, so they might not vote straight GOP. But it is also not uncommon that people hate Congress except for their representative, which is why overall favorability ratings can be so long for Congress for so long but incumbents can keep being reelected.

I would think there should be some info from exit polls, but I haven’t seen anything.

If my Trump-supporting relative is any measure, they don’t vote down ticket. She only votes for President and doesn’t have time to figure out all those silly propositions and local officials.

If Trump is not the nominee then it will depend on his reaction to that. At this point I doubt he’ll accept that he lost a fair fight and if he supports a GOP candidate it won’t be with much passion. I think his hatred of the GOP establishment now exceeds his hatred of Hillary and the result will be decreased turnout for the GOP candidate in the general. If Bernie beats Hillary then Trump may even support him just to get even. You can’t tell with Trump, it’s easier to predict the New England weather.

It depends on what happens with the nomination. If Trump gets “robbed” at the convention and starts an independent run, I expect that a rash of mini-me Trumpkin local candidates will pop up and hitch themselves to his coattails, with or without his endorsement. If Trump just sulks and goes home, the same thing might still happen to a somewhat lesser degree. The result would be a downticket bloodbath for the GOP.

If Trump does get the nomination, it depends on how thoroughly the party establishment kisses and makes up with him. If relations remain strained, with downticket GOP candidates distancing themselves from Trump like he was a plague carrier, the above described mini-me scenario would play out to some extent as local politicians see an opportunity to tap lingering anti-establishment sentiment. If they actually make peace (which I consider the least likely scenario, given the lines that have already been crossed), the election will play out more or less normally downticket.

A friend of mine pointed out that in '92, the down-ticket drop-off closely corresponded to the Perot vote totals. Perot is, I think, a comparable candidate in a lot of ways to Trump, so maybe they don’t.