Asking for a next level analysis of down-ticket impacts, and then perhaps what that implies moving forward.
Level one of course is the impact of those traditional GOP voters who just decide to stay home or cross over. It’s been talked about a fair amount but I am not so sure how big that will be. These are the reliable voters and they may leave the President box blank, or even split their ticket, but I suspect they will still by and large still come out and vote for their usual local, state, and Congressional choices.
The next level though I am more unsure about: those voting for Trump but clearly are not fans of the so-called “establishment” of the GOP and are clearly not primarily committed movement conservatives of any of the various stripes … voters voting for a GOP candidate who rejects many past sacred cows of GOP dogma and condemns many of its previous and current leaders.
Do they end up just going GOP down the line because they figure give him the majority that will approve his plans? Vote against those who were aligned with a mainstream that fought him? How do these people vote in elections with hard TPists? Do they just vote for President and leave?