Now that Senator Lisa Murkowski’s BFF Susan Collins has lost her election and it looks like the other senator from Alaska is going to be a Democrat, will Murkowski remain a loyal Republican, or will she become an independent and caucus with the Democrats?
I think it’s very unlikely.
Even if she has been one of the few GOP congresspeople to sometimes stand up to Trump, and one of the few remaining “moderate Republicans” left in Congress, she’s a lifelong Republican, and the daughter of another Republican politician.
While she has expressed unhappiness with the direction of the GOP under Trump, she’s also said that she could never consider herself to be a Democrat. Even if she were to declare as an independent, I would more suspect that she would try to work towards fixing her own party, than to side with the Democrats.
Also, she’s not young (though she’s a lot younger than some of her fellow Senators); she’ll be 71 when she faces re-election in '28. I could see her deciding to not run again.
Does Lisa know that the Dems stopped doing clitoridectomies when Hillary ran for President–she insisted.
With only 74% of the vote counted, it’s too early to say for sure but ISTM that the ranked choice voting there is going to tilt red.
Over in the general Senate 2026 thread we’ve had some discussion of how the Sullivan / Peltola race’s RCV will break. There is some actual evidence cited that so far at least the break is leaning D not R. See here and subsequent discussion:
No, she won’t.
AI is telling me that there have been six D to R congressional party switches since 2000 (Matthew Martinez, Virgil Goode, Ralph Hall, Rodney Alexander, Parker Griffith, Jeff Van Drew), and only one going the other way (Arlen Specter). This suggests to me that the thread question answer is – probably not.
Republicans are eager to welcome Fetterman. Democrats seem to me less welcoming to centrist newcomers (see post above by Thelma Lou).
I personally like welcoming newcomers.
Also, Sen. Jeffords of VT switched from R to Independent in 2001 and caucused with the Dems from then on, so for all practical purposes he switched from R to D.
(AI is probably too dumb to pick up on such nuances.)
Her value is not so great now. What does it gain her and what does she gain team D?
Why would she want to? Why would they especially want her?
Why not? After all, why would she switch unless she’s a good deal more in tune with the Dems than her voting record shows? Why would she switch if she’s still going to vote with the GOP most of the time? So if she wants to switch, the Dems want her to switch, so that she feels free to vote the way she has really wanted to all along.
But I have no reason to believe that we haven’t been seeing the true Lisa Murkowski all along, that there are occasional situations where she will vote against her party, but on the whole she’s in the right place. She’ll stay put.
No reason to not want her, but it isn’t like Senate control is in the mix. She’d be welcome to come aboard, but not promised choice appointments as inducement. No real Democrat should lose out a spot they want to make room for her.
Like others, I doubt very much that Murkowski would jump (though I can’t imagine she’s terribly happy with her party right now).
But if she were to approach the Dems about switching, I’d want them to listen very carefully to what she thinks she can offer them.
Oh sure. But I didn’t think we were even talking about any of that, just whether she’d be welcomed if she switched.
In theory, I’d say that every Republican voter is in the wrong place. Why not every Republican politician?
Most likely, if she changed parties, she would also change how she votes on multiple issues. But even if she quite implausibly changed her mind on the sole question of whether the Senate should be organized by Republicans or Democrats, that is enough of a reason to welcome her. A wave election in the other direction in 2028 or 2030 cannot be ruled out, and she may then be needed.
No, I don’t think she’ll switch parties but she can be persuaded to vote for good legislation that helps people. And if she returns in 28 and the Dems get to 59, it’ll be really important to work with her.
Murkowski endorsed the Democratic candidate for Alaska governor, so she doesn’t seem to be all about party loyalty.
Why is this even coming up?
There is no reason for her to want to switch now than any other time. And no desperate need to have her.
Again fine to have her if she wanted to put a different letter after her name. And it probably wouldn’t change her votes much? Unlike Collins she actually voted against Kavanaugh. Her brand is bipartisan and crossing lines. Not party obedience. She is moderate for the GOP; as a Democrat she would be quite to the Right of Fetterman.
To be fair, the OP asked about switching to independent, not Democrat.
There have only been 5 Senators that have switched parties since 2000. All but one switched to independent. The exception, Spector, switched back to Democrat.
Interestingly, there have only been 3 party swaps (R to D or D to R) since Strom Thurmond in 1964.
Reps are a completely different beast since their districts and constituents change.
As for the OP, no way. Senators have an army of staff, supporters, donators, and voters that they’ve built up over decades. There’s no advantage to alienating all the ones that still think of themselves as Republicans.
Switching to a D in Alaska would be political suicide. For all her faults, Lisa is a hundred times better than her father ever was. He spent 21 years in the senate with nothing to show for it, then came home and served four disastrous years as governor of the state. He was bounced after one term. He appointed his daughter as the interim senator, and she’s managed to stay in office ever since. While she usually votes red, I have to say that Lisa has the best interests of the state at heart and has the backing of the Alaska Native population.