You don’t see the difference? Really?
Then I’ll explain it to you. Biden did a great job as president and was following the natural trajectory of seeking a second term. But it soon became evident that his physical health was deteriorating beyong the point where this was a reasonable goal.
JD Vance is a misogynistic moron who was picked for the job by another misogynistic, racist moron with a long history of being obviously incapable of making good judgments about anything.
How likely is it that the current SCOTUS would find the relevant part of the constitution self-executing?
I think that Musk would harm Trump’s chances, and is unqualified. But so is Trump.
Trump can show use of good judgment by picking someone better.
From a self-interest standpoint, I do not see the big downside with Trump pushing Vance out and selecting someone with a smaller oppo research profile.
Now, if the replacement is also unpopular, that would harm Trump.
Lordy. You put “Trump” and “good judgment” unironically in the same sentence.
Pull the other one; it’s got bells on.
It’s not that Vance has done a poor job as a candidate, because he hasn’t really done anything as a candidate. The reaction against him is because of who he has always been, and that reflects badly on Trump.
Well, sure, if Trump picks an electorally better veep – I’d say, Rubio or Stefanik – some swing voter somewhere will remember that Donald had first picked Vance and hold it against Trump. But they wouldn’t be more down on Trump for having first picked Vance. Instead, they would be less negative on Trump for having fixed it.
If Trump switches veep horses to someone slightly more moderate than Vance, I predict it gets Donald a bump.
Trump already picked one unpopular running mate. How many tries does he get to get it right?
Recent history hasn’t been kind to failed veep candidates’ political ambitions. Just ask Mike Pence, Tim Kaine, Sarah Palin, John Edwards, and Dan Quayle. Ryan did OK for awhile but still flamed out a few years later. Lieberman malingered on in the Senate for another decade but didn’t accomplish much except from becoming a Republican in all but name.
I think you have to go all the way back to Dole in '76 to find an unsuccessful veep candidate who had lasting political success afterward.
I think Trump is jealous of the press has given Vance, unsavory as it is. Trump doesn’t care, he wants the flashbulbs flashing for only himself.
If he gets pissed enough he may want to kick Vance to the curb. And he may start whining about it. It will take his advisers doing some fast talking to try and talk him down.
Heck, they may have already told Vance to shut up. What, has it been 2 whole days since he said something massively stupid?
Not so much. This is from earlier today I believe.
“Tim Walz has been going around saying that he served in war, and maybe they did it in Chicago so that he could actually, accurately say he visited a combat zone,” said Sen. Vance.
There’s a big difference in Vance’s situation. He’s not just a right-wing Senator from a red state with name recognition, which in the normal political calculus gives him a big head start on re-election to the seat. The difference is, he’s personally on Trump’s radar now.
Trump is the undisputed king of petty vengeance. He holds grudges like nobody’s business. If he loses, he will want payback against anyone and everyone he can convince himself deserves blame, whether or not it’s rational or reasonable to the rest of us. And Vance will be high on that list.
So if Trump loses, he will go on the warpath, tearing down Vance and trying to end his Senate career, by attacking him and talking up his primary opponent(s). Obviously, Vance isn’t up for re-election until the 2028 campaign, so it’s anybody’s guess if Trump will still be cognitively functional and/or politically relevant. But if Trump still has a grip on the party in four years (presuming he’s still alive and he’s not in prison), in anything resembling a close race, this could very well tip the balance. And even if Trump spends the next few years nosediving in popularity, he could still do a lot of damage to Vance before he goes.
All of these are, of course, big ifs. But I don’t think it’s correct to evaluate Vance’s future by the usual political benchmarks. Trump, as always, for everything, is the giant wild card.
It paints him as an idiot who couldn’t even pick a good VP candidate, let alone be smart enough to run the country.
Yeah, that’s obvious to us. And his base would make excuses. But the reason for dropping Vance would be to appeal to those who are undecided.
It may seem like machismo to insist you can’t be wrong, but that narrative is a significant part of Trump’s appeal. He never admits mistakes, and that makes some people think he’s strong and powerful.
The only way he pulls it off is to have some sort of excuse that people will buy. I think Trump, for all his faults, instinctively knows that, and would at least try for plausible deniability.
The benefit of the machismo of not admitting fault isn’t entirely baseless. It really does play into a narrative that far too many accept.
Two.
By the time the polling comes in for the second ticket, early voting would be underway. It would then be too late.
Also, the Democrats took two tries to get their ticket correct. It would look bad if it took the GOP more times.than the Democrats.
In theory, the GOP has an advantage in that they can say they got it right the first time. In practice, even low info voters sense they did not. Replacing Vance would just be an acknowledgment of reality.
If Trump sticks with Vance, he is making a mistake.
Quoting Vance:
He has not. He said it once in passing (and in error) in 2018.
And Dole’s position as Senator in 1976 is similar to Vance’s position is today. Dole was elected Senate Majority Leader in 1984, and the same thing could happen to Vance in a few years. Dole played the party line for a long time before seeking the nomination; Vance might do the same. Even if he doesn’t ever seek higher office again, he could be a long-term Senator, just as Dole was.
Now, if Vance is dumped by Trump, that might be the end of his political career.
“A few years” that included becoming Speaker of the House. Tim Kaine, who hasn’t sought higher office since his VP run, won re-election in a landslide in 2018 and seems poised to do so again this year. Palin and Edwards blew up their own careers by making dumb choices that had nothing to do with having been the VP nominee (as did Lieberman, eventually). Pence was a term-limited, not-particularly-popular governor whose career would probably have been over sooner if he hadn’t been VP. I’ll give you Quayle, who might easily be a well-respected senior senator today if Bush hadn’t tapped him, but otherwise there doesn’t seem to be any particular pattern, and being the VP nominee on a losing ticket is not an automatic political kiss of death. (It might be that for Vance, but only because people don’t like what they see now that he’s under increased scrutiny. Or it might not. I’d say the most likely outcome is that he stays in the Senate for as long as he wants to.)
That said, I agree with you that the talk of Vance being replaced is pure fantasy. There isn’t any mechanism for it other than persuading Vance to step down voluntarily, for the good of Trump and / or the Republican party, and I doubt Vance is more attached to either of those entities than he is to his own ambitiions. This is also not a Biden-situation where there was clear-cut evidence that the individual’s presence on the ticket was the problem and running a different individual who didn’t have the same issues would be better. Trump was already unpopular in his own right, and while Vance hasn’t exactly helped him as a VP pick, that’s because he’s unpopular with the same people and for the same reasons as Trump.
The polls are fake. Everyone loves Vance, especially suburban women.
What?
Yup, hence why it was my example of Vance being a public ass of himself in the past 24 hours and not being silent as previously presumed.
No, I get it. I was just adding the context as to why it was particularly stupid.
Gotcha.