Will Trump finish his term?

Politics & Elections
#1
Will Trump finish his Term?
  • Yes, he will be President up to the time Biden takes his oath
  • No, he will resign
  • No, he will be removed by the 25th Ammendment
  • No, he will be removed due to impeachment
  • No, Other

0 voters

Today is January 8th and with less than 2 weeks to go we still don’t know exactly how this Presidency will end.

When Trump was first elected I made a bet with a friend at work on this very question. I said that there was no way Trump would make it to the end of his first term due to resignation, impeachment, or the 25th amendment. If Trump makes it all the way through I owe him lunch, otherwise he owes me lunch. We both agreed that if Trump had died in office that the bet was a push so no winner.

Up to Wednesday morning I thought I had lost and was ready to pay up when we could finally get together again. But in typical Trump fashion, this bet remains a nail biter to the end. What say you?

Personally I think he’ll make it to the end but if he gets wind that he’s going to be forcibly removed he may resign to spare himself that humiliation. If he’s too stubborn to do that, I think impeachment will be the nail in the coffin…

#2

If he doesn’t make it to the end, I’m guessing resignation just before the Senate votes to convict.

#3

I’m not sure either, and glad I didn’t place any wagers. I think the key barometers are

a) whether the number of Republicans supporting the 25th amendment or impeachment continues to increase and

b) whether in response to that Trump does the predictable thing of doubling down and it becomes a snowball-effect thing

#4

From what I’ve heard on CNN, that won’t stop a conviction.

#5

Yeah, I forgot that a conviction doesn’t just remove him from office, but also prevents him from holding future office. Still, I wouldn’t put it past him to pull the old “You can’t fire me; I quit” ploy.

#6

While I think he should be removed immediately, my prediction is he is impeached, but not removed by the Senate, although the vote will be closer. He will finish his term and then be arrested.

#7

That’s an add-on penalty. Not automatic.

#8

I think that will be a necessary condition to get some 2024 GOP hopefuls on board.

#9

He will probably finish his term. I hold out hope for completing an impeachment with a conviction even after he leaves office so he can be prevented from running again. There’s no way to know if that would actually work.

#10

You need a 2/3 vote to convict. Are there 17 Republicans that would vote to convict?

#11

I dunno. A quitter is the worst type of loser.

#12

I’m watching the Rachel Maddow show and she just noted that while a 2/3rds majority is required, it is not specified how many Senators must be present to achieve this and does not necessarily need to be all of them. So theoretically, if 20 Republican Senators just stayed home that day… (FWIW I don’t think this would work but who knows?)

#13

Rules read “two thirds of the members present”.

Which the impeachment bill being circulated explicitly requests, possibly foreseeing that removal may become academic by the time it goes through.

#14

I agree it’s all but certain at this point he’ll be impeached (again) by the House, but he won’t be removed by the Senate. I doubt there would even be a trail (even a show trial like last time). On the other hand he’s mentally unbalanced, his underlings are deserting him, he’s being deprived of his ability to connect with his followers, and he’s facing his worst fears imminently coming true. This is his Führerbunker moment.

#15

You’d need 25 to sit out.

#16

…unless you have five that are willing to go on the record for removal. I can think of at least three.

#17

If Trump pardons himself but doesn’t immediately resign, there will be a firestorm for impeachment, and 17 Rep. Senators may even have enough backbone to vote for conviction. But if he does resign he’ll be seen as admitting that he’s been beaten. So that means he can’t resign, and he can’t pardon himself until the last minute.

It’s unlikely Pence will try to invoke the 25th Amendment unless Trump does something even MORE outlandish/stupid than he’s already done.

The logical choice for Trump is to just wait it out, figuring he still has at least 33 Senators who won’t vote to convict.

OTOH, the New York Times is reporting that McConnell is telling aides that Trump actually committed an impeachable offense, so he might let an impeachment go forward, and Trump might resign rather than risk conviction.

#18

I agree with all of the above, but it starts to sound like Vizzini in The Princess Bride, going through his reasoning for which wine goblet has the iocaine powder in it.

It is also worth noting that Vizzini claimed a massive intellect, and look at where that got him. :smiley:

#19

Sasse (R-NE) and, if The New York Times second-hand reporting is accurate, McConnell (R-KY) have indicated that they are open to impeachment and will consider the articles once sent. (Both were just re-elected for another six-year term.)

Toomey (R-PA) has said he thinks the President committed impeachable offenses but isn’t sure impeachment is “desirable” with only a few days left. (Toomey has announced that he will not run for re-election in 2022.)

Murkowski (R-AK) has said she wants Trump to resign. (Murkowski will run for re-election in 2022.)

Collins (R-ME), a usual suspect, hasn’t committed yet. (Collins was just re-elected for another six-year term.)

Romney (R-UT) voted to convict last year, but when asked about impeachment this year he said “I think we’ve got to hold our breath for the next 20 days.”

That being said, the Senate probably won’t vote to convict before Biden takes office. The lame-duck Senate is currently in recess until noon of the 19th, and it would take unanimous consent to conduct formal business before that date. The current session expires on the 20th, so there really isn’t time to conduct a trial. And good luck getting Republicans to impeach their own President without even the pretence of a trial.

~Max

#20

We are already in the 1st session of the 117th Congress and that does not end the 20th.