You-Solve-It Mafia Game

The Game Room
321

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

What next? How do we use the information to catch scum? What exactly is the plan?

Here’s one problem I foresee: Let’s suppose for example that one of my traits is “I played college football until I got injured.” (It’s not, really). Let’s further suppose that a couple of scum share this trait with me, but lie about it. Then one of them kills you, and you see that your killer played college football until he got injured. Where does that leave me? I’ll have suspicion all over me for having that trait, whereas the real scum are happily hiding and voting for me! Since scum are going to lie about their lists, how do we really glean anything true?

Can someone please tell me what I’m overlooking here?

I really think we need to think this through. I look forward to having my fears allayed.
[/QUOTE]

The starting information, along with the general tone of the dossiers we’ve seen so far has led me to believe that there’s some sort of connection or clues to the identity of the scum hidden within the dossiers. I don’t think the dossier is a red herring, and the only hidden information I think is in this game is the identity of the scum.

If we have all the information on the table, (even with scum misdirection), we’ll have a chance to sort it out and possibly crack the code that I believe lies within.

Lacking the general agreement that that’s what we should do, I think our next best option is to no-lynch until we have more information out of confirmed townies death scenes.

But I guess people like storyteller have a better plan. If you don’t like the idea of fetching information out of the dossier, how do you propose we procede in our scum-catching. We don’t have the margin of error in this game that we’ve had in the other games. By the way… I was voting for Rysto in order to encourage him to make the dossier reveals. I fully believe that the only people in this game with something to hide are scum… and so the people who will be holding things up will be scum. I think it’s a pretty logical way of scum-finding.

(and, for the record, I’m not convinced Rysto’s scum yet, either. but over-caution on the part of the town will be fatal in this game)

322

[QUOTE=Diomedes]

But I guess people like storyteller have a better plan. If you don’t like the idea of fetching information out of the dossier, how do you propose we procede in our scum-catching.

[/quote]

Did you actually read my previous post, or just skim it?

For the benefit of those looking on - I actually am in favor of dossier revelation, and have stated so repeatedly. So this statement, aimed at me, suggests that you didn’t really read much of my response, other than that I voted for you and mentioned Rysto. Skimming is a scum tell.

However, I’ll answer your question anyway: the way you proceed with scum-catching in the absence of dossiers or investigative roles is to look at the way players act. Specifically, what I am always interested in is this: who appears to be creating, or attempting to create, an artificial rush in a particular direction? Who appears to be dissembling, talking out of both sides of the mouth? Who appears to be attempting to manipulate the group? Who appears to be behaving in an opportunistic fashion? And who carefully backs down from their vote when called on it?

In your case, what I see is that sort of opportunism. You saw Rysto expressing an opinion that ran contrary to the majority. For scum, that represents a great opportunity, because - as you’ve seen in past games - towns like to lynch the mutant (sorry, Rysto, I’m not calling you a “mutant,” but you know what I mean), the lone wolf, the dissenter. So scum will throw a vote in the direction of the dissenter, hoping to start a bandwagon. But if the bandwagon doesn’t start, and if someone challenges them on their vote, scum will often weasel - by saying something like: “I’m not convinced Rysto is scum.” I mean, consider that statement.

There’s no reason, at this stage, that you should be convinced that he is. You have virtually no evidence. It’s a non-statement. The only reason to make this disavowal is to distance yourself from that vote now that someone has associated you with it.

Hell, I could be wrong. But trying to suss out the motivation underlying people’s posts is surely going to be a better key to winning this game than obsessing over the contents of the dossiers.

323

Ok, we’ve had the following final scores from NBA games:


                                Score       Total Points
3 - Charlotte/Atlanta           93-84       177 
4 - Memphis/Orlando             123-119     242
5 - Sacramento/Washington       92-79       171
6 - Philadelphia/Cleveland      92-86       178
7 - Indiana/Miami               106-103     209
8 - New Jersey/New York         94-86       180
9 - Phoenix/New Orleans         101-98      199

If my calculations are correct, the order is:

  1. Rysto
  2. MHaye
  3. ShadowFacts
  4. HazelNutCoffee
  5. Hawkeyeop
  6. faithfool
  7. Freudian Slit
  8. sachertorte
  9. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies

The remaining players are:
1.storyteller0910
2.brewha
3. One And Only Wanderers
4. Hal Briston
5. zuma
6. Kat

We’re waiting on the results of the late games to determine the rest of the order. If somebody could check my math, that’d be great.

324

Shoot, I messed up. I forgot to add 1 after taking the remainder each time, which means that original order that I showed was wrong. Here’s the corrected(and complete) order:


                                Score       Total Points 
1 - Charlotte/Atlanta           93-84       177 
2 - Memphis/Orlando             123-119     242
3 - Sacramento/Washington       92-79       171
4 - Philadelphia/Cleveland      92-86       178
5 - Indiana/Miami               106-103     209
6 - New Jersey/New York         94-86       180
7 - Phoenix/New Orleans         101-98      199
8 - Dallas/Houston              96-83       179
9 - Minnesota/Milwaukee         95-92       187
10- Denver/San Antonio          102-91      193
11- Seattle/Utah                96-75       171

12- NHL 7PM Games
    CBJ/BOS                     2-0         2
    CHI/BUF                     3-1         4
    TOR/MON                     4-1         5
    ATL/OTT                     7-3         10
    PIT/NYI                     3-2         5
    CAR/PHI                     6-5         11
    Total                                   37
  1. Rysto
  2. MHaye
  3. One And Only Wanderers
  4. Freudian Slit
  5. ShadowFacts
  6. zuma
  7. brewha
  8. Hawkeyeop
  9. sachertorte
    10.Kat
    11.ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies
    12.HazelNutCoffee
    13.storyteller0910
    14.faithfool
    15.Hal Briston

In case anybody is wondering how the full order can be set without waiting for the results of the late NHL games, zuma miscounted the number of random numbers that we needed. When there’s only one player left there’s no need for a random number.

325

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
Did you actually read my previous post, or just skim it?

For the benefit of those looking on - I actually am in favor of dossier revelation, and have stated so repeatedly. So this statement, aimed at me, suggests that you didn’t really read much of my response, other than that I voted for you and mentioned Rysto. Skimming is a scum tell.

However, I’ll answer your question anyway: the way you proceed with scum-catching in the absence of dossiers or investigative roles is to look at the way players act. Specifically, what I am always interested in is this: who appears to be creating, or attempting to create, an artificial rush in a particular direction? Who appears to be dissembling, talking out of both sides of the mouth? Who appears to be attempting to manipulate the group? Who appears to be behaving in an opportunistic fashion? And who carefully backs down from their vote when called on it?

In your case, what I see is that sort of opportunism. You saw Rysto expressing an opinion that ran contrary to the majority. For scum, that represents a great opportunity, because - as you’ve seen in past games - towns like to lynch the mutant (sorry, Rysto, I’m not calling you a “mutant,” but you know what I mean), the lone wolf, the dissenter. So scum will throw a vote in the direction of the dissenter, hoping to start a bandwagon. But if the bandwagon doesn’t start, and if someone challenges them on their vote, scum will often weasel - by saying something like: “I’m not convinced Rysto is scum.” I mean, consider that statement.

There’s no reason, at this stage, that you should be convinced that he is. You have virtually no evidence. It’s a non-statement. The only reason to make this disavowal is to distance yourself from that vote now that someone has associated you with it.

Hell, I could be wrong. But trying to suss out the motivation underlying people’s posts is surely going to be a better key to winning this game than obsessing over the contents of the dossiers.
[/QUOTE]

Meh. Skimming is a **Diomedes **tell.

I didn’t leap opportunistically leap onto Rysto… I gave him plenty of time and chances to go along with the only chance I think we have. Plucking scum out based on our beliefs on underlying motives is a decent way to handle a lot of Mafia games, but I don’t believe this set up gives the town a good chance of winning if we approach it the way we deal with most mafia games. There’s a lot of places for mafioso to hide, and there’s plenty of them if we do chance on one or two of them.

I can’t imagine any sort of information that the dossiers will provide that will enable the scum to take an advantage over the town. If someone wants to spell out the dangers of dossier information-reveal to me, in small words of two syllables or less, I’ll shut up about it. But until then, I can only see dossier-revelation as pro-town manuever, and therefore, moves to withhold dossier information as an anti-town manuever.

Ergo, my vote for Rysto. (for now)

326

12 hour check-in… and nothing.

327

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I can’t imagine any sort of information that the dossiers will provide that will enable the scum to take an advantage over the town. If someone wants to spell out the dangers of dossier information-reveal to me, in small words of two syllables or less, I’ll shut up about it. But until then, I can only see dossier-revelation as pro-town manuever, and therefore, moves to withhold dossier information as an anti-town manuever.
[/QUOTE]

This reminds me a lot of the Mafia: Conspiracy game we both just recently played. Remember the early going in that game when many of us, myself included, were pressing **sachertorte **to reveal all his info, but he was holding back? Many people were saying “There’s NO reason not to reveal this info?” Turns out, there was good reason to hold back and we were all better for it.

The lesson: just because you can’t see a downside, doesn’t mean there isn’t one. And those who disagree with you are not necessarily inherently anti-town. That kind of black and white thinking is counterproductive. Add on to it the rush rush rush! to reveal everything NOW! (or else!!) and that’s not a good way to play. We should take our time and think it through, listening to all opinions on the matter.

Now, I posted some questions above about the reveal plan that were not really answered at all. I’d like you or **Pleonast **or anyone else who is confident in the plan to address my questions. In other words - convince me you are right and I will happily go along with the plan. Right now, I am not convinced, and I won’t do it until I am. You can go ahead and vote for me for that if you want, or you can try to change my mind.

328

Okay, I’m somewhat caught up. Yeah, ShadowFacts, that’s a good point. In light of all that, I’m more inclined to be conservative about the info sharing this time out.

I’m also wary of lynching the noobs right away…though at this point it seems to soon to tell. I was a noobie last time (granted, I was scum) and most of the mistakes I made that made me look scummy weren’t because I was actually scum, but because I just wasn’t sure what was going on. No one has pinged my radar quite that strongly just yet in this game, though.

329

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

Now, I posted some questions above about the reveal plan that were not really answered at all. I’d like you or **Pleonast **or anyone else who is confident in the plan to address my questions. In other words - convince me you are right and I will happily go along with the plan. Right now, I am not convinced, and I won’t do it until I am. You can go ahead and vote for me for that if you want, or you can try to change my mind.
[/QUOTE]

I’ll try…

There are no power roles. zero. It’s vanilla vs. scum. We’ve been conditioned to keep secrets in this game so far, because we want to protect all of our power roles. What is the motivation to keep secrets now?
NAF states as much in his opening posts on page one of this thread.

I’ll choose to take NAF’s word for it that the “7%” thing is nothing to lose sleep over, or to count on. It does seem to be making people paranoid, though.

And in case anyone is worried about there being a secret cop or some such, if NAF’s “not something to count on or lose sleep over” comment doesn’t do it for you, he also says this:

He’s told us we’re all vanilla. I ask those who are resisting disclosing information, what good does it do us to hide it? To what end? Who are we protecting?

The “twist” itself, the fact that we learn the identity of one of the traits of the killers, tells me that these traits are key to determining who the scum are. The scum already know who we are, and they don’t have to worry about targeting power roles because there aren’t any. I see no likely scenario where being open hurts us. I see several where it hurts scum.

Maybe townies all share a few traits exclusively. Maybe scum do too. Maybe scum aren’t allowed to lie about their traits. Maybe when all the traits are on the table, we’ll find distinct semi-related “groups”. I don’t know.

The point is that the scum know who we are, none of us are worth killing more than others to them, and just possibly the traits are of use to us to catch scum. The death revelation twist seems to point in that direction.

Unless someone can point to a good reason not to reveal it, I’ll be voting for one of the people resisting. Because the only group I can envision wanting to keep this information secret is scum.

330

Also, Rysto, I ran the numbers and came up with the same list you did.

331

Sorry for the lack of participation today - I have guests visiting from out of town. I’ll catch up [del]once I drug them[/del] they go to bed.

332

[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]

Now, I posted some questions above about the reveal plan that were not really answered at all. I’d like you or **Pleonast **or anyone else who is confident in the plan to address my questions. In other words - convince me you are right and I will happily go along with the plan. Right now, I am not convinced, and I won’t do it until I am. You can go ahead and vote for me for that if you want, or you can try to change my mind.
[/QUOTE]

It’s tough. See, I think I’ve figured out part of the logic puzzle that is the dossier. So I may be helpful in determining true from false dossier claims. But I can’t give you that information until we have all the dossier claims, for what I hope are obvious reasons.

333

I’ll be very interested to see what you’ve figured out with only your own dossier, everyone’s public statement & what we can derive of Rugger’s. In fact I’d like to hear it BEFORE we reveal everyone’s dossier. If it’s too clever, it may indicate your membership in a group that can share information. And as we know, there’s only one such group in this game.

334

[QUOTE=One And Only Wanderers]
I’ll be very interested to see what you’ve figured out with only your own dossier, everyone’s public statement & what we can derive of Rugger’s. In fact I’d like to hear it BEFORE we reveal everyone’s dossier. If it’s too clever, it may indicate your membership in a group that can share information. And as we know, there’s only one such group in this game.
[/QUOTE]

Pleo and Hockey have also revealed their dossiers as well.
And I’m afraid that if I reveal what I’ve figured out, then the value of my information becomes worthless. Or, at least, worth much less. if you guys hang me, I’ll post what I’ve got in my death scene… but as soon as it becomes public knowledge, it’s too late to help us out the scum.

335

I can see where you don’t want to put out your theory first. How about you compose a post now detailing what you have surmised, and then post that with your updated one after the reveals? Also, I need to pay more attention, I have somehow missed the Pleo and hockey reveal. Off to have a look now.

336

[QUOTE=One And Only Wanderers]
I can see where you don’t want to put out your theory first. How about you compose a post now detailing what you have surmised, and then post that with your updated one after the reveals? Also, I need to pay more attention, I have somehow missed the Pleo and hockey reveal. Off to have a look now.
[/QUOTE]

Good idea. I probably ought to also run down and make sure that my assumptions (based on some pretty decent initial analysis, I think) is entirely on point. I’ll compose forthwith.

337

Hey, before we go diving into whatever Diomedes has in store for us, I just wanted to put on the record my opinion that this:

[QUOTE=Diomedes]
Meh. Skimming is a **Diomedes **tell.
Plucking scum out based on our beliefs on underlying motives is a decent way to handle a lot of Mafia games, but I don’t believe this set up gives the town a good chance of winning if we approach it the way we deal with most mafia games. There’s a lot of places for mafioso to hide, and there’s plenty of them if we do chance on one or two of them.

[/quote]

…is absolutely false. Analyzing underlying motives is not only just as good a way to find scum as it has been in past games, it is actually better. In previous games, identifying scum based on evident inconsistencies or dissembling in their arguments was complicated by a significant confounding factor: the fact that the power roles needed to hide from the scum, and the behavior of pro-town power roles, in many cases, may appear similar to that of the scum.

In this game, there are no pro-town power roles. No pro-town player has any reason to be inconsistent or dissembling; behavioral analysis should be easier to do in this game than in others.

Further, I’d go so far as to say that the incredible emphasis we’re placing on the dossiers so far is more likely to hurt us than to help us. I figured by discussing them quickly and reaching a consensus on how to handle them, we’d move on to a more behavior-based analysis mroe quickly, but instead we’ve become bogged down in revelation systems and dossier-based theories and whatnot. I’d be surprised, given their public statements on their design, if the moderators created the dossier system to be very much more than a fun MacGuffin; it seems plain that this game was designed to reward a more behavior-based analysis than past games, and the amount of attention we’re paying to what is likely a terrifically small aspect of the game may be counterproductive.

In simpler terms: say everyone reveals their dossiers, and the scum all tell the truth. We’ve lost nothing. We’ve probably gained nothing. It’d be a wash, since I’d venture to guess that every trait is shared by at least two players. So we need to find better ways to find scum, which we will not do as long as we’re devoting this much mental energy to discussing dossiers.

338

It seems that ordered reaveals are nnt popular with scum and others. i have walked along the shore of the bay of pigs. my great great grandfather was a duke in scily.

339

By the way, without a really strong lead, are we better “No Lynching” to reduce the body count to one per day? Obv if we have good reason to suspect someone is scum we can string them up.

340

[QUOTE=One And Only Wanderers]
By the way, without a really strong lead, are we better “No Lynching” to reduce the body count to one per day? Obv if we have good reason to suspect someone is scum we can string them up.
[/QUOTE]

What strong leads are you referring to? I think faithfool’s messup re: confirming is about as strong a lead as we can hope for, and I think that’s far from a lock for scum.

It’s looking like dossier reveals aren’t really going to happen, so we probably won’t have any clues divined from those. The daily dead-man reveal won’t give us any lock, either, unless the information given happens to be the piece of information given out publicly at the start of the game: even then, some of those items are duplicated in other player’s dossiers. If we’re going to play this as a straight vanilla-vanilla game, I don’t see the benefit of no lynching.