You-Solve-It Mafia Game

Rysto · February 14, 2008, 8:42pm

I’ve tried googling and it doesn’t seem that Sand and Water has any cello music in it; nor can I find any connection between Traffic and Beth Chapman.

It’s possible that this trait was unique to the scum and they lied about their dossier. If nobody can decipher this clue then I think that we should pass on faithfool for toDay and focus on the rest of us. If we can find scum today we can get another clue tomorrow that might definitively clear faithfool; if we can’t find the other scum we lose anyway.

Pleonast · February 14, 2008, 9:56pm

So, the good news is faith is quite likely to be Town. The bad news is faith is not around to vote. Does this mean we’re screwed?

Rysto · February 14, 2008, 10:01pm

If faith is Town and can’t vote, then we almost certainly lose. faith, it’d be really great if you could stop in at the library a couple times to keep up. Even if it’s only for a minute to throw out a vote. If you can’t, though, well, it’s only a game.

Pleonast · February 15, 2008, 3:18pm

Ok, so here’s what we need to do to have a shot at this.

Everyone give their opinion on everyone else. With reasons, if possible.
Once the rest of us have something out, Faith can read through and then post his own opinions.
We need to decide who to vote for, without actually voting.
Actually vote.
Wait for verdict for the mods.
Repeat Tomorrow.

Hawkeyeop · February 15, 2008, 3:58pm

Well, here we go. I prefer not to use reasoning like this, but the hour the late and my buddy Brewha is counting on me. I’m going to go heavily into macro game reasons here for it is imperative, at this point, that the other two town members not only not vote for me, but vote with me. We can still win, but we need to play this exactly right.

First off, I’m assuming that Faithfool is not scum. We know she didn’t lie about her dossier, so unless the last clue revealed can be connected to her, she cannot be scum. It is unlikely that Hal would have been given the dossier of a scum anyway, so I’ll consider her town. If I’m wrong here, we lose.

Next, I’m not scum. I don’t ask you to take my word for it, but hope you would take Naf’s. Anyone following the off board game knows that Naf attacked me early because of “my tone”. Now, his argument was off base, but that does not matter here. For in order for him to make the argument, I would have to be town in this game. Here is his explanation for his vote.

Naf tried to not reveal who I was in this game, but I don’t think he succeeded. This took place on page 1 of the game. If I’m scum in this game, Naf would have no idea how I would sound if I was town. It is unrealistic for someone to make the argument that someone’s first few posts sound exactly that person always has, therefore they are scum. On the other hand, if he knew I was town in this game, I could see an early “change of tone” as causing a vote.

http://psychopathgame.proboards106.com/index.cgi?board=rottk&action=display&thread=1201030708&page=1 You can read my posts if you like and see if the tone seems different to you. Or you can go by what other posters say. For example, Roosh stated “Hawk’s tone IS very different from his other game.” I think it is clear that Naf meant my tone changed.

So hopefully step 2 worked. Step 3 is to pick out a scum. On the bright side, assuming I was right on Faithfool, I have a 2/3 chance of being right here. I’m going to stick with voting for Sach. His just doesn’t seem that determined to find scum. His attitude seems similar to that of Hazel and OAOW before they were lynched. We are in desperation time, and if you aren’t playing desperately, I get suspicious. I’m torn between Rysto and Pleo. I lean towards Rysto, due to his defense of Sach and his sharing a dossier trait with me, but I don’t believe it will be my decision to make.

Step 4:

Faithfool,

If you believe, me please vote with me today. If you are still alive the last day, and town, you will likely need to pick between Rysto and Pleo. Listen to their arguments and do your best.

Sach,

Sorry if you are town and I just ensured our loss.

Rysto and Pleo,

Whichever of you is town, vote with me. Then do your best to convince Faith or I that you are town on the last day.

‘Crosses Fingers’

Vote Sach

Pleonast · February 15, 2008, 4:34pm

Hawkeye, I never find meta-game arguments convincing. It’s too easy for scum to manipulate them to their benefit (wine-in-front-of-me setups). I’m also fairly deaf when it comes to the “tone” of players’ posts. I’m the more analytic type. So I don’t find your claim of Towniness to be especially persuasive.

I see faith as nigh-confirmed Town, and Rysto as likely scum. So I need to decide between you and sach. Yet instead of putting out an argument for sach’s scumminess, you instead assert your Towniness with an argument that’s not useful for me. And you vote, knowing the risks of a bad vote at this point.

You’ve not reduced my skepticism of your motives. But at least you have something. Rysto, sach would you two put forth arguments?

Hawkeyeop · February 15, 2008, 5:01pm

Fair enough. I believe it was the only shot I had, so I took it. Like I said, the town members need to vote together or the town loses. If we are both town, but you vote for Rysto, and I vote for Sach, we could lose.

Just to be clear I was not making a tone argument. I was making a “Naf would only of done what he did if he knew I was town in this game” argument. I won’t dispute it was a metagame argument, and that I have gotten burned by those earlier this game.

On not making an argument against Sach, here is the thing. If everyone is right about Faith being town, all I need to do is convince the third town member that I’m not scum. For example, if you aren’t scum, then Rysto and Sach are. In that scenario, I don’t need to explain to you why Sach is scum. If Faith is not scum, and I’m not scum, and the third town member believes this, then by process of elimination, he will know who the scum are. I also don’t really see the point of having a consensus with a group of people, assuming Faith won’t be part of the arguments, who are half scum. I pretty much believe I’m on my own in picking out who is scum. I did briefly go into why I picked Sach though, and had longer arguments yesterday.

Finally, I don’t find voting risky at this point. We need four votes for an instant lynch, which means everyone would have to agree on the same target. I find that highly unlikely.

sachertorte · February 15, 2008, 6:06pm

This is totally messed up and serves as a MAJOR example of why discussing other ongoing games is an extremely bad idea.

I know Hawkeyeop’s alignment in the Three Kingdoms Game.
We all know that NAF knew Hawkeyeop’s alignment in this game.

Now I know Hawkeyeop’s alignment in this game through circumstances that should never have happened. But if I state what I know, I reveal Hawekeyeop’s alignment in the Three Kingdom’s game.

Damn it. I’m going to assume that hawkeyeops posts in this game constitute a sufficient confession (Sorry DBI).
I believe Hawkeyeop is Town in this game. But Pleonast and Rysto already know that.

So, hawkeyeop, you’ve succeed in convincing the non-faithfool townie that you are not scum: But only because I have knowledge that shouldn’t be applied to this game.

Vote Rysto

Pleonast · February 15, 2008, 9:24pm

Keep turning the statements sach and Hawkeye over in my mind, trying to figure out who’s lying. Just getting a headache instead.

Six possible cases of who’s scum:

Hawkeye and Rysto. Hawkeye says he’s indifferent to me or Rysto, and pushes sach lynch. If I follow, scum win with the mislynch. But sach says he’s sure Hawkeye is Town. Both meta-arguments are wrong.
Rysto and sach. Hawkeye is right; sach is lying and bluffing by voting Rysto.
sach and Hawkeye. Scum are using a tricky bluff. They can afford to sacrifice one of their own and still keep us in lynch-or-lose.

Faith could be scum who’s never killed. We’ve thought it’s unlikely faith is scum because of the game setup. But here we are at double lynch or lose. Hal having knowledge of a scum’s Dossier might have been a counter-balance to the number of scum. Got to consider it at this point.

Hawkeye and Faith. Hawkeye is trying to mislynch sach, while sach is wrong about Hawkeye.
Rysto and Faith. sach is correct. Hawkeye is truthful about his own Towniness, but by assuming faith is also, is going wrong with voting sach. Both meta-arguments are right.
sach and Faith. Hawkeye is half right; sach is lying.

I’m tempted by Case 5 (scummy Rysto and Faith) at this point. If we’re going to meta-game: because a mod-kill of a Town Faith at this point would end the game, the fact we’re still playing implies he’s not. Less meta-gamely: why would the scum not kill Faith last Night, when they would be able to predict our likely conclusion that faith is Town. Obviously subject to WIFOM, though.

I’m also tempted by Case 2 (scummy Rysto and sach). Hawkeye has been giving me a pro-Town vibe for most of the game. Too bad I can’t trust my gut instincts more.

I think my best place to vote is for Rysto. I won’t place it their yet, in case I’m wrong.

Comments to each of you:
Rysto: please make a case for/against someone.
sach and Hawkeye: Your meta-arguments may be right, but please reconsider your assessments of faith.
Faith: if you’re Town, we really need some input from you. If nothing else, put a vote on whoever you think is most scummy. If you’re scum, I guess you can do whatever you like.

Final comment: I hate two things in Mafia games: restrictions on posts, and meta-arguments. Both suck the fun out.

Hawkeyeop · February 15, 2008, 9:31pm

Pleo,

Faith could not be a scum who hasn’t killed. There are only 2 killers left. We have had two different killers the last 2 nights. So both remaining scum have killed. It is possible that Faith killed and we haven’t figured out the right trait, but it is not possible that Faith is both scum and hasn’t killed.

Pleonast · February 15, 2008, 9:33pm

How do we know that?

Hawkeyeop · February 15, 2008, 9:34pm

How do we know what? If the killer was the same Brewha would of told us.

Rysto · February 15, 2008, 9:35pm

What can I say? Guys, I wish that I could say that I am scum. I wish that I could tell you all that I’ve been leading you all down the primrose path. I wish that I could say that I scammed you all into wasting your last two mislynches. I wish that I could say all of those things because the only alternative to me being brilliant scum is me being a dumb-ass townie.

Unfortunately for my ego, an examination of the body of my work suggests the latter. Take M1: Werewolf. I did vote for Menocchio, the Alpha Wolf, Day One and was night-killed Night One. Convinced of my own brilliance, I emailed RT, the mod:

I quickly got a reply:

At which point I immediately formed the theory that JSexton must be a Werewolf. My comments in the forbidden thread are along the same lines, and just as bad.
Then there was M2, in which I put in what was without a doubt my worst ever single-Day performance. That was Day 2, during which I led bandwagons against both chrisk, the Doctor, and Blaster Master, the Vigilante. I had this crazy theory that chrisk and the rest of the Mafia were using “trust/mistrust” lists to sniff out Detectives. The detective was killed Night One, and I leapt in head-first. I scarcely need tell you that every single conclusion that I drew in that post was wrong: everyone that I accused was Town, the mafia did not kill CaerieD and they had no idea she was the Detective. I don’t remember much else from that game besides the Autolycus lynch(the less said about that the better), but I certainly remember this exchange from the forbidden thread. To the end I was posting wild, completely inaccurate theories.

I didn’t play again until Pleonast’s Conspiracy game. As a witch I urged that the three of us act extremely cautiously; I quickly managed to convince the Town that I was scum and the Vampire that I was a witch, and died Night Two. My insistence that there must be a Vigilante in the game did not help me, and once again I was totally wrong. The only really crazy theory I came up with(besides being utterly paranoid that the witch’s board was being watched by scum), was that I thought that the scum were pushing the mass-claim idea on Day One: that theory was quickly put to rest when Hockey Monkey was investigated as Town.

So what’s the point of this self-flagellation? I’m trying to demonstrate that my actions over the past 3 days are completely in character for myself as town, and that it’s hardly unusual for my theories to totally backfire. I can’t say that much, if anything, that I’ve done in this game has ended up helping the town, but I really don’t want to top the last three days off by being the losing mis-lynch. I have done my best to build up cases and present them to the Town, and I feel like I’ve been alone in that. I think that the scum have been quite content to ride my coattails and let me do all of the hard work for them(I’m tempted at this point to joke, “Don’t you townies wish that you hadn’t prodded me into participating more?”).

I don’t know what to think about any of you. I’m not going to assume that faithfool is Town until it’s proven, but as I said earlier, she could easily end up confirmed Town toMorrow so we should lay off her toDay. I was going to say that if Pleonast has managed to manipulate his post analysis method into allowing him to vote for townies he’s a genius, but I did just say that I thought that the scum were letting me do the leading, so maybe he’s just been throwing out any old vote and letting people follow my bandwagons instead. On second thought, Pleo’s been voting like that since long before I stopped lurking, so that seems unlikely. My original analysis of why Hawkeyeop was scum was obviously completely flawed, so I’m back to square one with him. As to sach? I have some vague suspicions, but I need to re-read and see if there’s anything that backs them up.

Maybe I should look for who I think is towniest and vote for them? Can’t work worse than my current method…

Pleonast · February 15, 2008, 9:50pm

Hmm, good point. But aren’t these death posts munged by the nefarious mods? Maybe something critical was taken out. (Or, Mafia gods forfend, brewha might have forgotten!)

I guess I’m leaning towards Faith as Town, but I don’t want to throw the game because I was too eager to jump to certainty.

Rysto, I feel what you mean. If I’ve learned anything from these Mafia games, it’s that I’m a horrible judge of disguised motives. If you’re Town, we can’t expect anything more than your best shot.

I’ll be taking a trip over the long weekend (to San Diego, SoCal’s better half), so don’t expect much from me until Tuesday. (Another reason not to vote yet, I won’t be able to react quickly.)

Hawkeyeop · February 15, 2008, 9:51pm

Liar! Oh right, Nevermind.

Rysto · February 16, 2008, 5:09am

A quick thought: Day 5 could do with some looking at, again. The Diomedes vote saved Hazel. I have a really hard time believing that there were no scum on that bandwagon other than Hazel. If that’s true, either Hawkeyeop or sachertorte must be scum(or me, of course, but I exclude myself from consideration for the obvious reasons). I’m leaning towards sachertorte at this point, but that’s by no means definitive.

On the other hand, I have a hard time believing that all three scum would pile onto Dio. Pleo voted for Hazel. In fact, Pleonast led the charge against Hazel. He gets major townie points for that: at the time we had 5 lynches to catch 3 scum. The difference between needing to catch 3 scum in 4 lynches and 2 scum in four lynches is huge.

faithfool, on the other hand, voted for brewha and didn’t switch onto any of our traditional last-minute bandwagons. God, I wish we could decode that clue and clear her for good. I have actually had a thought on that: we know that the traits were taken from “two truths and a lie” and the “controversial opinions” thread. If we could find a potential trait in either thread that matches the clue, we could definitively clear faithfool.

Although now that I’m thinking about this more, that’s not worth it. ToDay we must lynch scum. If we kill last Night’s killer, then faithfool is definitively cleared. If we kill the third killer, then we get a new clue toMorrow that we can decode to clear or implicate faithfool. I had it right earlier toDay:[del] we [/del]I need to stop worrying about faithfool toDay.

sachertorte and Hawkeyeop. That’s where I’ll be focussing my attentions tomorrow(well, actually today, but I’ve always said that tomorrow doesn’t start until I get some sleep or the sun comes up).

Rysto · February 17, 2008, 3:12am

My plans are finalized: I will be leaving early Wednesday afternoon; probably a couple of hours before the deadline.

Time for the re-read.

Rysto · February 18, 2008, 3:06am

I’ve been mostly poo-poo’ing dossier analysis to this point. So what have I found myself doing tonight? Dossier analysis. But I think that I’m on to something here. I’m about to post all of the traits in the order that they were claimed. Green traits are traits that we know are real traits: public traits, traits claimed by townies, and faithfool’s traits. Underneath each trait is the order in which the traits were claimed. Confirmed townies are in blue and confirmed scum are in red. There are also three traits coloured purple: these are traits originally brought up by scum or unknowns that were subsequently confirmed as real traits. Ok, here we go:

I was a trombone soloist in college.
(public), Cookies

I’ve travelled with royalty in torn T-shirt and jeans.
(public), Story, zuma

I graduated from college over 9 years after enrolling, and I was nearly expelled twice.
(public), HM

I have walked along the shore of the Bay of Pigs.
(public), zuma

I believe farts are really funny. People only pretend to not think they are.
(public), Freudian, Rysto

While Jay Leno was doing a stand-up show I attended, he recognized me as someone who had previously seen him perform and spoken briefly with him.
(public), Dio

I’ve climbed to the top chamber of Cheops.
(public), sachertorte

I wear a size 7 shoe.
(public), Rysto, Hazel, Kat

One of my high school classmates was killed in the attack on the USS Stark.
(public), Santo Rugger

I believe the Honda Element is a good-looking car.
(public), faithfool, MHaye, OAOW

I enjoy practicing the cello
(public), ShadowFacts, faithfool, MHaye

I believe that zombies are inherently funny.
(public), MHaye, Santo Rugger

I played piano with Sly Stone in a Holiday Inn restaurant.
(public), Kat, MHaye

I had my last cat, Clawdia, professionally preserved and she sits in my bedroom.
(public), Pleonast, Dio

I once had sex in front of the Washington Monument.
(public), OAOW, Kat

I am scared of moths.
(public), brewha, Pleonast

I own an authentic 1920s lady’s flapper outfit.
(public), Hazel, Story

I have performed an exorcism.
(public), Hawkeyeop, Santo Rugger, faithfool, brewha

I have a near phobia of octopi.
(public), Hal

I believe that cruelty makes foie gras all the more tasty.
Santo Rugger, Rysto, Hal

I sat next to Robert Plant at Fat Tuesdays.
Santo Rugger, Hal

I have eaten bull testicles more than once.
Santo Rugger

I have handled and fed a lot of snakes, alligators and crocodiles.
Pleonast, MHaye

**I’ve wandered and built on an old, live Soviet bomb dump. **
Pleonast

My mother was a former NFL cheerleader.
Pleonast

I was once bitten by a wild animal while visiting Dollywood.
Pleonast, Freudian

I have had a conversation with Laurence Fishburne
Dio

I provided a line in a song that became a top 20 hit for the band Traffic.
Dio, faithfool, Kat

I’ve been bitten by a tiger.
Dio

I have had a conversation with Michael Chiklis.
Dio, OAOW, Freudian

I got an autograph from Billy Crystal on top of the World Trade Center.
HM, sachertorte

I’m in favour of making mandatory both organ donation and the use of human corpses as a source of meat.
HM

I once drove a VW Bug through the front door of a 7/11.
HM, OAOW

I have gone to Disney World 3 times and Disneyland at least 5 times
HM, sachertorte, Hal

I have held 5 American Bald Eagles.
HM

My great-great-grandfather was a duke in Sicily.
zuma, Hazel

I believe that aliens are stealing my socks.
zuma

I believe that the Apollo moon landings were filmed in Hollywood.
zuma, Cookies, ShadowFacts

I have memorized the entire “D” section of the dictionary.
zuma

I have been shot in the head with a muzzleloading .45 caliber pistol and in leg with a bow and arrow.
faithfool

I voted for a boy for prom queen.
faithfool

I was in a biker movie.
Rysto, Cookies, Hawkeyeop

I believe that the world would be a much better place if about 25% of the population were taken out back and shot.
Rysto

I started a forest fire by playing with matches.
Rysto, brewha

I worked as a professional audio engineer for three years.
Hazel

I can say ‘hello’ and ‘thank you’ in nine languages.
Hazel, brewha, OAOW

I watched as over 30 people jumped out of an airborne aircraft.
Hazel, sachertorte

I was a trombone soloist in college.
brewha

I’ve bowled two perfect 300 games.
brewha, Kat, Hawkeyeop

I am the funniest person alive.
Story

I have performed on stage at Branson, MO.
Story, Cookies, Hal

I’ve been trodden on by an elephant.
Story

I’m not fully convinced that Kurt Cobain committed suicide.
Story

I believe that corporations and the wealthy are no longer sufficiently taxed.
Cookies

I believe that spending years building kids’ self-esteem does more harm than good, in the long run.
Cookies, ShadowFacts

I have met Chuck Norris
MHaye

I’ve eaten grilled cow udder more than once.
OAOW, sachertorte

I once met Cliff Burton from Metallica before he died.
ShadowFacts

I have a photo of myself with Dick Clark
ShadowFacts

I went trekking after gorillas in The Impenetrable Forest.
ShadowFacts

I have been an assistant on an archaeological dig in the ancient Malian capital of Djenne.
Freudian

I’ve been a model appearing on the cover of a nationwide catalog.
Freudian, Hawkeyeop, sachertorte

I interviewed Pete Townshend via email, and he posted it on his website.
Kat

I’ve been on the cover of a Chicago area phone book.
Hawkeyeop

I speak Swahili.
Hawkeyeop

I believe that homosexuals should be allowed to be as miserable as straight couples. If they want to get married, let them.
Hal
I think that this makes it clear what the scum did for their dossiers. They copied some traits that already existed and made up some new ones from the two threads. The “hello” and “cow udder” traits give me a bit of pause, but the overall pattern is just too clear. faithfool had a truthful dossier when we know that most of the scum were lying, so I trust her. Pleonast introduced two real traits; his dossier looks clean. I also introduced two real traits. sachertorte and Hawkeyeop, you share some very suspicious traits with scum. Any comment?

Rysto · February 18, 2008, 3:49am

I made a small boo-boo here.

Rysto · February 18, 2008, 7:02pm

Motherfucker! I made a huge boo-boo in constructing that: sachertorte revealed before Freudian Slit. I never would have caught the mistake had I not seen Hawk say way back in Day 5 that Freudian had no first traits. I know exactly how I made the mistake: I missed sachertorte’s dossier reveal on my first go-through and had to go back at the last minute and fill his traits in. I must have forgotten to ensure that I got the order right. Here’s a corrected version. God, I hope that there aren’t any other errors in this. Analysis of what this change means is forthcoming; I’m still working my way through a re-read and I’ll put all of my analysis together in one post when I’m done.