Even though I believe (my fellow Austinites would flay me for saying so) that Sam Bradford is a better pro prospect than local hero Colt McCoy, I still think picking quarterbacks is too big a crapshoot to pick one #1 overall. There have been too many expensive busts among quarterbacks taken early in the first round.
Suh and McCoy are both very close to being sure things, which means the Lions SHOULD have taken one of them (preferably Suh) and gotten a slightly lesser QB (like McCoy, though not necessarily him) later.
This is NOT a knock on Bradford… but I suspect that Suh and McCoy would be a more valuable combo than Bradford and whoever they get with tonight’s first pick.
The longer I think about it the more okay I am with the Bengals pick of Gresham. Not that Gresham isn’t a fine player, he is, I just questioned the Bengals taking a TE at 21. But, it IS a position of need, it will certainly help Carson Palmer in the passing game that floundered badly after the loss of both starting TE’s to season-ending injuries in training camp, the injury/death of Chris Henry and the erosion of Lavernues Coles over the course of the season.
All this of course is predicated on Gresham not having any more health issues. If both he and Chase Coffman stay healthy and can get on the field at the same time, that’s a pretty sick receiving TE combo right there.
I’m kinda on the fence about this. While I think Suh is the best player in the draft and has the potential to be an absolute force in the NFL, defensive tackle alone just isn’t a position that changes games. Quarterback is. The best example is Cortez Kennedy. He was an outstanding defensive tackle, one of the best of all time perhaps. The Seahawks used their first round pick (#3 overall) in 1990 to get him, and he went on to 8 Pro Bowls, the 1990’s all decade team, and the 1992 Defensive Player of the Year, and will likely be in the Hall of Fame. Great career, great player, one of the best DT’s ever.
And the Seahawks, as a team, didn’t go anywhere. They went from 9-7 without him to 7-9, 2-14, 6-10, 8-8, 8-8, and on and on in mediocrity. Defensive tackle, even a very good defensive tackle, has problems making the team that much better alone. A very good quarterback, however, can.
Like I said, I’m still up in the air, and I do think Suh is the BPA, but I can’t really blame the Rams for going QB over DT. It’s a much higher risk, especially with Bradford, to be sure. But if they couldn’t trade down (which would have been ideal), I can see why they went with the high risk.
I would never, ever draft a player in the first round who hasn’t played real live football for over a year. I think the Bengals are going to regret passing on the WR’s that went right after him.
The pick in the first round that surprised me was the Giants. By and large, I tend to like how they draft and the guys they get. But grabbing the most overrated player in the draft at a position that’s not really a need really surprised me.
Finally, I predict that the Bills or the Browns will move up to the Rams’ spot and select Jimmy Clausen. The Rams will have them bid against each other and get a pretty good deal in return.
So, the Broncos traded a lot. In their trades down, they gained #70, #87, and #113. In trading up, they lost #43, #70, #113, and #114, but gained a second 1st Round pick they didn’t have before. So, in essence, they used only #114 to move from #43 to #25. Am I missing something? Because that doesn’t sound too bad, irrespective of the player they chose at #25.
I get your point, but 1990 was one of the worst classes of QB ever. Emmit Smith was the best player out of that draft, and RBs can change the game, too.
Still, it comes down to that ever-present term, “upside,” and its less-spoken-of brother, “downside.”
Worst case for Suh is being a productive started for five plus years. Worst case for Bradford is a #1 QB bust (like that’s never happened before). However, best case for Suh is a feared perennial Pro-Bowler. Best case for Bradford is teams in the NFC West shifting their draft boards out of fear of him, desperate to catch up to a Greatest Show on Turf revival.
Look, if you put the proverbial gun to my head and said I HAD to take a QB with the first overall pick, I’d take Sam Bradford. He has all the tools I’d want.
Problem is, LOTS of spectacular busts have had all the tools I’d want, too! Do I want to shell out that much guaranteed money for a guy who plays a position that’s so hard to predict with any accuracy?
If you get lucky and take Peyton Manning, you’re a contender for a decade. If you take Ryan Leaf (who, I kept hearing, had far more “upside” than Manning), you’re screwed and hamstrung for almost as long.
What it comes down to is, almost EVERY quarterback is “a project.” Sam Bradford has some valuable tools that Colt McCoy doesn’t have, but both are STILL “projects” who’ll take years to develop… IF they develop at all.
I’m on the fence myself, it seems. But if I were a GM, I’d lean in the direction of taking a sure thing with the number one overall pick, and trying to find a good quarterback prospect later. There’s liable to be a Kurt Warner or a Tom Brady who can be had for cheaper in a later round.
The problem I see with that is the difference between Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy or Tim Tebow is larger than the difference between Suh and say Terrance Cody or Brian Price. I think successful DT’s are a hell of alot easier to find after the first round than successful QB’s. And, as I said in my first post, QB is so much more valuable to the team than DT is.
I think it comes down to risk averse-ness. You (and generally I) want to avoid a bust more than we want to get a potential stud at a vitally important position. The Rams decided that they would rather take the risk of a bust at QB. I think if they can trade down now and in the 4th round, they’ll be able to put together a good draft that will hopefully help alleviate the problems if Bradford is a bust.
Now, then. Do the 49ers go back to defense in Round 2? DB or D-Line?
There’s a hug drop-off after the 2nd Round for cornerbacks, so if they see one they like, they’d better go for it. D-line or rush linebacker could work, too. They need to ramp up their secondary somehow to complete a fearsome defense.
If Mays falls all the way to #49, do they bite on him. If they do, does he become the new Ronnie Lott, or the next Ken Norton Jr.?
Do they go with a playmaker on offense, like Dexter McCluster or Joe McKnight?
From what I’ve read, the debate between Leaf and Manning was mostly made up by the media and possibly encouraged by the Colts to aid them driving down the contract demands for Manning. But, again, from what I’ve read, the Colts had no serious consideration of taking Leaf. How much a “sure thing” Leaf was is exaggerated by the people who want to play up the bust potential of the draft. Which isn’t to say top QBs don’t bust - they certainly do - but the classic Manning/Leaf 50/50 shot debate isn’t historically accurate from what I understand.
I also wouldn’t say it screw you over for “almost a decade” if you draft a bad one. The contract sucks and kills your salary cap, but you can get rid of them by year 3 or 4 and be fairly confident about it. Not only that, but you can always draft developmental QBs and try to find that Warner or Brady in the 5th round even when you’re giving more of a chance to your high round pick, so it’s not an either/or situation.
Finding an elite QB is such a ridiculous difference maker in today’s NFL, to the point where you could throw Peyton Manning or Drew Brees onto a shitty team and they’d have a good shot at the playoff, that it’s worth the risk, IMO. Teams that manage to succeed despite mediocre QB play are few and far between, and usually aren’t regular contenders. Remember how Minnesota was #1 in rushing and #1 in rush defense for 2 or 3 years, while racking up 8-8 seasons? As much as people want “run and stop the run” to be true, they prove that it takes more to succeed in the modern NFL.
If I were them, I’d go best player available. If that is Kyle Wilson, fantastic. If that is Jimmy Clausen, draft him. Same with Taylor Mays. I think you can still find good DB’s in this draft in the 3rd round, so make it a priority then.
Lot of talent fallen out of the first round. Drafting 6th in the round, the Browns are going to be able to land one of: Clausen, Kindle, Mays, McCoy, Golden Tate, or whichever one of the good tackles left projects best at right tackle, or even one of the pretty good DTs. That’s roughly my order of preference too.
Sports radio in Boston last night after the Pats traded down and down, then selected a CB, was going apeshit. The consensus was unanimous that, while secondary was a need and McCourty is a solid player, the team needs a pass-rushing DE or OLB much more than CB. Basically everyone (pundits and fans) thought this was a terrible pick.
That said, one of the players everyone said they should have taken - Kindle - is still available, so maybe the Pats will be able to get him in round 2. They certainly have enough picks to move up if they want.
You’d have to expect that with all day to think about it, some team is ready to trade up and get Claussen. He’s rapidly approaching best athlete available territory, in my opinion, which seems kind of ridiculous for a quarterback.