They win the close games, which is a sign. But they didn’t really impress today and it took two pick 6’s for them to win.
That Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.
Boy do they miss Collins. Woodson had a nice pick 6 earlier, but if Orton gets time, he’s taking advantage.
They haven’t been able to get much pressure on Orton, either.
Their run defense isn’t all that great. We’l see how that changes when Nick Fairley gets inserted into the rotation, though. Teams will hammer on that and then open up play-action passes because the secondary isn’t very talented.
Calvin Johnson is a freak, isn’t he?
Usually I wait until I’m somewhat sober before posting my thoughts, but what the heck, I might as well share.
The Packers offense looks amazing. Aaron Rodgers is something special, and, as a Packer fan I keep fearing his inevitable meltdown ala Favre, Majikowski, Dickey, but he continues to impress. I’m absolutely stoked to have him as our franchise QB. I’m still not sold on James Starks. I think Grant hits the hole better. If we could combine Grants’ downhill, cutting style with Starks power, we’d have a heck of a RB.
The defense needs work, especially against the pass. I was hoping Collin’s injury wouldn’t be that devestating, but Peprah is clearly a huge step down and Morgan Burnett still needs to develop. The three int’s were very nice, but relying on takeaways is always a risky proposition. I still want to see more pass rush from our front 5.
The Bears took advantage of a very crappy team, so good for them. Matt Forte was a force running the ball, something I don’t normally see from him. It will be interesting to see if the Bears pay him. I hope they do. Other than the win, I wouldn’t really be too excited for the Bears. Cutler had another crappy game, they gave up 543 yards, and they have some serious issues in that secondary. I can’t wait to watch the Lions Bears game on Monday night next week. It will be fascinating.
Speaking of the Lions, although they got the win, I was less than impressed. But for a Romo-esque meltdown, they would have lost. But they win the close games, they have one of the most amazing WR in the game (no, not Burleson), and Stafford looks like the real deal. With the problems in their secondary I can’t see them stopping the Saints or Packers, but their O Line had a pretty good game for once, which could really help.
The Vikings. Oh, the Vikings. I’m happy to see them relegated to the basement. Soon, the Ponder era begins.
So the NFC North goes 3-1 and win the games they should and pull one out that they were given. With the only 2 undefeated teams in the NFC, they’re looking like the best division in football.
Lovie loves to talk about a football season being made up of 4 quarters. After 4 games, the first quarter is finished and the Bears are 2-2. Lovie is happy with that based on his postgame comments. Lets run through the state of the team and see if he’s right.
Overview
As Lovie noted the team is 2-2 and has every right to feel good about that. They’ve faced the 2 best teams in the NFC (top 3 in the league with the Pats), bar none, and lost both games. They looked poor in both and it’s very difficult to be heartened by a loss, but those two stung more emotionally than they do practically. They dominated a Falcons team that is talented but seems a bit lost, and pushed around the upstart Panthers. Coming in I’d have felt great about beating the Falcons, but they aren’t what we expected and I’d have been indifferent to a win over the Panthers but they look to be a potentially scary team in the making. Practically speaking, if you’d have offered me a 2-2 split back in August I’d have taken it happily.
Personnel
The coaching and personnel team are nothing if consistent, consistently frustrating. Our draft once again is playing out as a mixed bag at best. Carimi looks like a solid choice. Paea is nowhere to be seen, though his position group looks to be a position of strength nonetheless. Conte is another in a long line of wasted picks in the secondary, Lovie sure knows how to fuck that up and spend a lot doing it. Enderle showed flashes in the preseason and might be a good developmental project, or not, give him an incomplete but I am in favor of developing QBs at all times. JT Thomas got the annual Bears Redshirt by being placed on the IR with a trivial injury. It’s still too early to make any decisions on any of these guys, but having one immediate impact player besides the 1st rounder is something that separates good teams from bad ones.
The Bears may have augmented that lack-luster draft by finding and developing some impressive UDFA prospects. Sanzenbacher is getting all the press, and he’s admittedly been a pleasant surprise in the slot in the mold of Wes Welker. I think the hype is a bit over the top, he’s really slight and short and needs to get a heck of a lot stronger and he doesn’t have the speed that a little guy like him needs. With Bennett out he’s a must have though. Kyle Adams steps in as a TE/H-back doing some of the same things that Olsen did last season and they scooped up Tyler Clutts off the Browns practice squad who’s been a nice upgrade at FB.
They beefed up the D line with a couple of DEs in Nick Reed and Mario Addison who beat out Vernon Gholston, Reed wasn’t a UDFA, he signed a futures contract before the lockout but is close enough. They also added Winston Venable who’s a core special teamer and potentially impact player in the secondary with some seasoning and Dom DeCicco at LB who has stepped in as well. It’s nice crop of role players. However, it doesn’t bode well that so many of these guys are outshining the players who were actually drafted in the previous couple seasons.
The Bears were really active in the FA market but only shopped in the discount/used bins. That worked well, with Okoye being a perfect fit in the D line rotation and Barber being a upgrade at RB2 when he’s actually healthy. This week he actually showed some goal line chops which the Bears badly need. They struck out with Roy Williams and Vernon Gholston, which isn’t a shock. I foolishly tried to talk myself into Roy Williams, but our WRs are so shabby that I had to do it. Adding Chris Spencer when the Krietz situation blew up has also looked like a nice move, as he’s helped settle things the past couple weeks when injuries cropped up.
Coaching
Lovie and company are just as maddening as they ever were. The defense always looks bad on the stat sheet but they’ve been effective. Offenses are on fire all over the league and the Bears defense is holding up as well as anyone’s. They’ve got some holes, but they’ve generated turnovers and the play calling has been pretty solid. I can’t kill Lovie too much yet this year.
Offensively it’s a different story. Mike Tice has settled the offensive line in the last couple games which is good, but in the first 2 games they made some glaring mistakes that were mental errors. I posted about this earlier, but his schemes leave a lot to be desired. I think he coaches and develops talent pretty well as most of our guys have shown improvement and outperformed their expectations, but when it comes to responding to creative pass rushes he tends to fall on his face. That said, that might be Martz’s fault. Speaking of Martz, he’s got to go. Every so often he uncorks a pretty terrific play design and these crappy Bears WRs will find themselves wide open. Then he turns around and does something wildly stupid like calling a reverse on the goal line. The Bears haven’t given Martz much to work with from a talent perspective, but this high degree of difficulty scheme is more trouble than it’s worth.
Offense
Jay Cutler has been inconsistent. Big shock I know. I’m a fan and I’ll probably keep apologizing for him until the end of time, but he’s shown some real improvement over last year. He still sails some throws over the middle like he did today and will force a ball into triple coverage, but he also make some eye-popping throws. After a lifetime of watching crappy noodle arm game managers, I’ll take that trade off. And frankly, I think he makes those boneheaded throws into coverage out of frustration with a often unproductive scheme. A better scheme would allow him to relax and not force things. Still, he’s made obvious improvement and his mechanics are better when we have protection. The arrow is pointing up, if he had some receivers he might be dangerous.
The offensive line has played better than expected considering the injuries. They need to get Carimi back and the reports are optimistic. Louis, Spencer and Garza are all playing pretty well in the middle. Omiyale has actually picked up the slack when Carimi went down in a way I didn’t think possible. He still commits too many stupid penalties, but he’s better than he was last season. The left side of the line is less promising. Chris Williams is utter shit. He’s not getting blown off the ball and is fine in obvious passing situations but he doesn’t run block well and seems to constantly blow blitz pickups and hand-offs when rushers twist and stunt. Webb has gone largely unnoticed, which is high praise for a LT. There hasn’t really been a game yet where a stud DE has abused him and for the most part he’s been reliable. We’ll see what happens next week against the Lions and when Jared Allen comes to town, but so far I can’t complain too much. The line is by no means a strength, but offensive lines across the league seem to be playing like shit. The Bears are still in the bottom half, but I think they are well out of the bottom 5 now and approaching middling.
The WRs are the most disappointing unit on the team. At one point they were the young group with untapped potential. That appears to have been a mirage. Williams isn’t a solution, we need size and strength on the edge to be that move the chains guy and Williams clearly is not it. The lack of an outside threat with size seems to put the rest of the guys out of position. Hester is still a dynamic playmaker and can be devastating when put into favorable matchups. However we don’t have the talent elsewhere to force those matchups. Knox is a great 3rd or 4th WR, as a number 1 he’s useless. He’s still fast and still runs solid routes and gets open, but he’s just a pussy. He hears footsteps and gives you nothing after the catch. Bennett and Sanzenbacher are nice depth guys and run great routes and get open, but they’d be better in a New England style offense. It seems clear to me that the number one need for this team, aside from a new OC, is a big WR. Oh, how I wish we’d have gotten Greg Little.
Forte is everything we expected him to be. When the offense is struggling he can’t carry it, but when they keep the defense guessing he can be devastating. He can do it all and that’s very rare these days. He’ll get paid. Maybe not DeAngelo Williams money, but the Bears always reward their own in a smart way. Barber needs to get on the field, but today we saw some of the potential he can bring as a 1-2 punch. He’s a short term solution and the injuries are evident, but we’re better with him. Clutts is a better FB than we’ve had in a while which helps. The TEs are wildly disappointing. It’d be a lie to say that we really miss Greg Olsen because of his poor fit with our scheme, but we really need to get more out of Spaeth and Davis. Spaeth has played a ton and he’s helped shore up the pass protection a lot, but Davis should be getting a lot more looks. He’s a big body who should create mismatches, but he can’t seem to find his way into the gameplan. Maybe this is just Martz stopping paying attention to the TE now that a TE of Olsen’s profile is no longer there to generate questions.
Defense
The changes up front with Tommie Harris leaving has had unexpected results. We’re much worse against the run, but we’re getting much steadier pressure on the QB. Not the outcome I’d have expected. The interior rotation with Melton, Okoye, Adams and Toeaina is very solid. Melton and Okoye are more dynamic than anything we’ve had in a long time. Adams is a bit of a disappointment at NT and is probably a key reason why we’re getting run on. The DEs are exactly as advertised. Peppers is a beast and never comes off the field. Idonije seems to be getting less push than he got last year and hasn’t been able to take advantage of some shaky RTs we’ve faced. We miss Wootten so far this year in passing situations because Addison and Reed aren’t quite ready for primetime yet. I think Addison has upside, but he’s not there now.
The Linebackers are excellent. I was a little worried about Roach on the strong side but he’s been fine. They’ve missed more tackles than I’d like but they’ve been instrumental in getting off the field on third downs. The depth gives me some stress, but hopefully that won’t be tested.
The secondary is almost as much of a garbage fire as the WRs are. The corners are actually playing okay, Jennings dropped a pair of Ints today, but generally they’ve been solid. The safeties however are in a competition to see who can make the stupidest play. Chris Harris is still out and he’s really been badly missed. Major Wright missed a couple games and hasn’t been particularly trustworthy when he was in there. Merriweather blew some big plays today and has been a shitty tackler all season. Hopefully he’s still learning the system and the bye week will help him get more fundamentally sound, but based on reports out of New England that seems like too much to hope for. Steltz, Conte and Venable are all massive liabilities in coverage. I’m sure some of the problems are in play calling and scheme, with guys like Brees and Rodgers just being way too good at creating and exploiting mismatches, but on the whole we’re giving up way too many big plays.
Special Teams
Very special, as always. Hester gets the record and the odds look good for him to pad that substantially this year. Gould is money in the bank and looks to actually be getting stronger. The coverage units aren’t nearly as good as they have been, probably due to a lot of turnover on the bottom of the roster but they haven’t cost us any games yet. You have to imagine they’ll get it together soon. We miss Danieal Manning a bit on kickoffs, but Knox isn’t a terrible alternate to Hester. Podelesh is much better than Maynard, though it would have been nice to see him pin the Panthers inside the 20 a couple times when he had the chance.
Outlook
The Bears are nearing the end of the toughest part of their schedule. It wasn’t really expected at the start of the year, but next weeks game against the Lions in Ford Field is a monster matchup. We can’t afford to go down 0-2 in the division and we need to reel in the Lions to position ourselves for the Wildcard. The Lions will probably be looking for revenge from the Megatron call last season, hopefully he doesn’t go off too bad against our shaky secondary. Their run defense is shaky and this week we put some stuff on tape that should scare the pants off of them.
After the Lions we have a very winnable game against the Vikes before flying off to London. These next 4 games will be decisive, wins over the Lions and Vikes will be crucial in the division. Then NFC playoff hopefuls in the Eagles and Bucs will follow. I was happy with a .500 finish coming out of the first quarter. We need better than that after the second quarter.
Detroit’s next six games are the MNF game hosting Chicago, hosting SF, hosting Atlanta, then at Denver before the bye, then at Chicago, then home for Carolina.
I’m looking at that and thinking that it’s feasible (but not probable, don’t get me wrong here) that they could be undefeated when they meet the Pack at Ford Field on Thanksgiving.
How great of a game would that be if both teams were undefeated going in?
How crazy is it that I, a Lions fan, can even have this thought after four weeks of football?!
Jordy Nelson signed a 3 year contract extension for more money than they gave James Jones this offseason. Along with resigning Josh Sitton for 6 years, those are a couple nice contracts to a couple very good core players. Good for the Packers. I like Nelson and if he stops the drops, he can be a great WR in this league. Having Rodgers throw to you helps a lot too.
Watching some highlights of the games I missed, and I just loved the Dez Bryant/Jim Schwartz moment. If you missed it, Dez Bryant runs a route along the Lions sideline, makes an impressive catch that is called a completion, gets up, and starts jawing at Schwartz and the Lions. Schwartz challenges the play, it’s called (correctly) incomplete, and Schwartz is yelling and signalling incomplete across the whole field to Dez.
Those Lions sure have some attitude. Glad to see Dez getting some back at him too.
I don’t see the Packers beating Tampa, Atlanta and San Diego (though I’d be surprised if they dropped more than one of those games). I don’t see Detroit beating Chicago twice, either.
I think it’s great that Lions fans finally have something to talk about other than how good the team is going to be next year, though. You’ve suffered enough.
I was going to say that’s a lot of money tied up in some pretty marginal receivers. There’s nothing special about Nelson or Jones other than their quarterback. Then I looked up the numbers and it turns out that their combined contracts total about $23 million.
I am kind of curious to see what happens to Jones and Nelson when Donald Driver is gone. Neither has ever posted particularly impressive numbers (except for Jones’ rookie year), but neither takes more than half of the offensive snaps, so it’s hard to judge their true value.
Sitton, on the other hand, is a beast- the Pack’s best offensive lineman by far- and deserves every penny. Bit surprised to see how heavily back-loaded the salary numbers are, though:
Considering how close the Packers are likely to be to the cap over the next few years (with a crap ton of rookie contracts coming to an end) it seems like they might be hard pressed to find $5 million a year to pay a guard come 2015.
I agree that it is unlikely that the Packers and Lions both are undefeated, but it certainly looks like it could happen. None of those games mentioned would be surprises if the Lions or Packers won them.
I like the Nelson signing myself. I think he is more than a marginal receiver , he is a good route runner with good hands (despite what Hamlet thinks). Jones, meh, but Cobb looks like the real deal. I like the idea of a consistent set of receivers year after year.
I am not too worried about the contract situation, contracts are not guaranteed, so if they are backloaded, if the player isn’t worth it, just cut him.
That’s the point: he is worth it, and the Packers have cap space now they won’t have in 2015.
It’s an almost impossible offense to stop. So many talented receivers and with Rodgers apparently able to thread the ball through a one foot square at thirty yards while on the run they are are almost impossible to cover. Want to play them man-to-man? Fine. Then watch Rodgers run right down the middle.
If they are undefeated or close to it, I’m sure they’ll bring up the 1962 Thanksgiving Day game between then 8-2 Lions and 10-0 Packers. It turned out to be the Packers only loss of the season. The Packers took one of the bigger beatings of the Lombardi era.
Of course i had season tickets starting back then. We were in the Bleacher Club , which meant rain and snow fell on us. There was no where to go. But the club had great Lion fans .
I may be away for most of the weekend, so here’s an early take on my view of the games this weekend.
Cardinals at Vikings
On the upside, last week the Vikings found a new way to lose; avoiding a second half collapse, but just being beat. As odd as it sounds to say about an 0-4 team, they really aren’t that bad. The Vikings have been in every game, and lost those 4 games by a combined 12 points. They just have a penchant for getting too many penalties, making crucial mistakes, and failing to make the right adjustments at halftime. I think a lot of that comes from the coaching staff and is the result of recent years of stupid handling of players.
I think getting back to the Metrodome and the sheer willpower of All Day, Jared Allen, and Antoine Winfield gets them a win this weekend. The Cardinals have some offensive firepower, but are a middle of the pack team both offensively and defensively. I think for one week McNabb won’t make a killer mistake and the Vikings win a close one at home.
Packers at Atlanta
Hey Atlanta. You didn’t lose last year’s game because you didn’t have a great #2 WR. It’s your defense that sucks, numbnuts. Sorry, I’ve been holding that in since they traded their future to get Julio Jones. The Falcons are the 6th worst team in scoring defense and the Packers have the #1 scoring offense in the league. This game has shootout written all over it. The Falcons offense is going well most games, but Matt Ryan looks like he’s regressed a bit and but for some incredible catches by old guy Tony Gonzalez, he’d be worse. Still, it’s never easy to beat a team at home, and the Packers pass defense has been shredded recently. I don’t like to have to rely on turnovers on defense to win. But even with a shredded defense, the Packers offense is clicking. I think the Packers get another win, but it will be the closest one yet.
Bears at Lions on MNF.
Biggest game of the week in the NFC North. I, personally, am psyched to see this game, because it will announce a changing of the guards, with the Bears giving way to the Lions. However, the Bears are always a tough team to count out. The Lions, although 4-0, have some major weaknesses (no running game, questionable Offensive line, weakness in the seconday). If Peppers plays like he can, it could be a long day for Stafford. But the Bears have weaknesses too (O line issues, questionable secondary, head case QB). At home in front of a home crowd that has been just waiting for a good team to come along, I think the Lions get a win. The Lions D line will sit on Cutler’s head all game while Megatron brushes aside the shrimpy Bears secondary like dusting off his pants. Barring in-game injuries, I think the Lions win handily. But it will be a damn fun game to watch either way.
Atlanta did need to find a guy to stretch the field, because their offense had no big-play capability. I don’t see why they needed to give up a whole draft for Jones, though. There are fast guys everywhere.
ey Atlanta. You didn’t lose last year’s game because you didn’t have a great #2 WR. It’s your defense that sucks, numbnuts. Sorry, I’ve been holding that in since they traded their future to get Julio Jones. The Falcons are the 6th worst team in scoring defense and the Packers have the #1 scoring offense in the league. This game has shootout written all over it. The Falcons offense is going well most games, but Matt Ryan looks like he’s regressed a bit and but for some incredible catches by old guy Tony Gonzalez, he’d be worse. Still, it’s never easy to beat a team at home, and the Packers pass defense has been shredded recently. I don’t like to have to rely on turnovers on defense to win. But even with a shredded defense, the Packers offense is clicking. I think the Packers get another win, but it will be the closest one yet.
This to me is typical Profootballtalk i heard it on Colin bullshit. Look at the julio trade… Perhaps the Falcons draft Adrian Clayborn… or perhaps they draft Cam Heyward… How did the mortgage the future for Julio when they can sign free agents to support the defense.
Plus you don’t take into account that they just 1) Signed Dunta Robinson for big fucking shut down corner money 2) Drafted Sean Witherspoon with the prevous first round pick at outside linebacker. 3) Just paid Ray Edwards big free agent $ this year to come in and play opposite of John Abraham. 4) Curtis Lofton and Thomas Decoud both coming back from a heavy injury 2010
This is an example of Van Gorder’s scheme not working… You have togive something up to get a physical stud like Julio… now that you have him they can no longer double Roddy… Players need to step it up and BVG needs to get his shit together…
Atlanta is doing the West to East coast thing this week, but they also get the late game, which should negate that. Still, they barely handled Seattle and just have not looked good in my opinion, beating Seattle and Philly after Vick went out of the game. They will be at home and have some sort of ‘payback’ in mind (whatever), but I just don’t think they can hang with the Packers.
The CHI-DET game is interesting, this is Detroit’s first game in the spotlight since the have become the league’s darlings. They have required a couple of big comebacks and some help to win a couple of their games, but nonetheless they are damn good. I still think the Lions win because they are at home and the Bears O-line won’t be able to handle Suh and the gang. But it will be close.
The Vikings will lose this game. I just feel it in my bones that this is not going to be their week. I think the Ponder vs. McNabb thing is not helping either.
They gave up 2011 first round pick, 2012 first round pick, 2011 second round pick, and fourth round picks in both 2011 and 2012. That’s three should be starters and two high upside fliers to grab a guy who, while he may become very very good, isn’t the best receiver on the team.
Hows that working out for them? He now has more $40,000 fines than interceptions and their pass defense is 24th in the league
Imagine having 3 more Sean Whitherspoons.
And Edwards has as many sacks as Dunta has int’s. Hell, he has less than the guy he was supposed to replace.
Here’s hoping that works out for them, because relying on guys coming back from injury isn’t usually the best tactic. I get that Julio Jones is the second best WR in this class, and next year, there will be another second best WR in the class, and the defense will still be a problem.