Arizona State’s romp at UCLA not only gets them into the top 25, but also keeps USC (which beat them last week) ranked coming off a bye week and lifts the Aggies (who beat them in the opener) all the way to the peak. Thus far, my master plan to demonstrate that the SEC is overrated doesn’t seem to be working out too well.
Texas A & M (3-0 against P5 teams, 1-0 against my top 25)
Stanford! (3-1, 1-1)
Florida (3-0, 1-0)
Northwestern! (3-0, 1-0)
Utah (2-0, 1-0)
LSU (3-0, 0-0)
Alabama (3-0, 1-1)
TCU (3-0, 0-0)
Cal! (3-0, 0-0)
UCLA (3-0, 0-1)
Iowa (3-0, 0-0)
Ohio State (2-0, 0-0)
Bowling Green (2-1, 0-1)
Memphis (1-0, 0-0)
USC (1-1, 1-1)
Michigan (2-1, 0-1)
Florida State (2-0, 0-0)
Georgia (2-1, 0-1)
Ole Miss (2-1, 1-1)
Notre Dame (3-1, 0-1)
Toledo (2-0, 0-0)
Arizona State (1-2, 1-2)
Clemson (2-0, 1-0)
Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0)
Oklahoma State (2-0, 0-0)
Now with a bit more than a third of the season gone, the contrast between this list and the AP is getting more interesting. The big outliers are Baylor and Michigan State, who are playoff teams per the AP but not quite good enough to make this list. Baylor has been blowing everyone out, but has only played one Power 5 team. Sparty is 2-0 against P5 teams, but both wins were close and at home and neither opponent seems much good so far (sob!). Clemson’s win was impressive, and they are 4-0, but two of the wins were over Wofford and Appalachian State. For once, the AP and I approximately agree about Alabama, which enters these ratings after its second decent win of the season. Toledo is hanging around the bottom of both lists. I am kind of shocked that Bowling Green isn’t getting a single vote in the AP poll; sure, they are 3-2, but they have two road wins against Big Ten teams (albeit crappy ones). I am really looking forward to the BCS title game between Stanford and Northwestern!
How can one-loss Stanford be #2? Yes, they’ve got some road wins, but they lost already and struggled to beat a UCF team that lost to Furman and FIU in the preceding games (and not incidentally, leads the nation in games lost to injury and defense not played - as in, they are the worst defense in the NCAA statistically).
I think they went to the chart too early. ND scored with 14:13 left to make it a 21-9 game. True, going for two puts you within 10 pts of a tie if you succeed. But if you don’t, you need two TDs. Or if they get a FG you need 2 TDs. It only makes sense if you can keep them from scoring and if you make it. So at 10:56, Clemson makes it 24-9. Now you’re screwed, you need 2 TDs plus a PAT plus a 2 pt conversion plus keep them from scoring. Sorry, but I think that the correct move is to kick and make it 21-10.
Well, after further review, I have discovered an error, and have revised the rankings accordingly!
Stanford!! (3-1, 1-1)
Texas A & M (3-0 against P5 teams, 1-0 against my top 25)
Florida (3-0, 1-0)
Northwestern! (3-0, 1-0)
Utah (2-0, 1-0)
LSU (3-0, 0-0)
Alabama (3-0, 1-1)
TCU (3-0, 0-0)
Cal! (3-0, 0-0)
UCLA (3-0, 0-1)
Iowa (3-0, 0-0)
Ohio State (2-0, 0-0)
Bowling Green (2-1, 0-1)
Memphis (1-0, 0-0)
USC (1-1, 1-1)
Michigan (2-1, 0-1)
Florida State (2-0, 0-0)
Georgia (2-1, 0-1)
Ole Miss (2-1, 1-1)
Notre Dame (3-1, 0-1)
Toledo (2-0, 0-0)
Arizona State (1-2, 1-2)
Clemson (2-0, 1-0)
Oklahoma (2-0, 0-0)
Oklahoma State (2-0, 0-0)
In Week 2, I mistakenly thought (with apologies) that UCF was an FCS team rather than FBS, and failed to give Stanford its one point for that win (which I didn’t watch, but it was 31-7; how much of a struggle could it possibly have been?!).
Stanford has three wins over power 5 teams, including a win at USC, and most P5 teams haven’t even played three P5 opponents yet; this will all even out in the end. For example, Stanford has a bye week coming up, so they certainly will fall in next week’s rankings.The system doesn’t penalize teams for losing (except insofar as losses represent wasted opportunities); I don’t see why Stanford should get LESS credit for losing to Northwestern than, say, Oregon got for beating Eastern Washington in that same week.
0 for losing to Northwestern
1 for blowing out UCF
5 for beating ranked USC on the road
4 for blowing out Oregon State on the road
3 for blowing out Arizona
TAMU is the only team to have earned points in every week, but still totals only 12:
5 for blowing out ranked Arizona State
1 for blowing out Ball State
1 for blowing out Nevada
3 for beating Arkansas on the road
2 for beating Mississippi State
Just gonna pretend that Ole Miss never happened? How can they be 3-0 against P5 teams, but 1-1 against your Top25? I think you have a serious flaw in your calculations here.
Should be 2-1, 1-0, of course. That error doesn’t affect the actual ranking, but now I notice that I made the same mistake I made wrt UCF and failed to give Bama credit for thumping Middle Tennessee State, which will elevate them to #4. Tomorrow I am going to carefully recheck everything! Embarrassing, but nice to know that folks are paying attention.
OK, my conscience wouldn’t allow me to sleep until this was cleared up. I have double checked everything, and found no further errors. So here are the (please God) final week 5 rankings.
Stanford!! (3-1, 1-1)
Texas A & M (3-0 against P5 teams, 1-0 against my top 25)
It was 10-0 Stanford at the half. The second half was basically the result of UCF’s true freshman backup quarterbacks going three and out nine straight times. By way of comparison, UCF lost to FCS Furman the following week, a team which had lost its only two games to that point (against FCS Coastal Carolina and VA Tech.)
Well, that’s interesting, but I’m certainly not trying to analyze every single game at that level of detail; I’m just looking at results and trusting that the fluky ones will even out over the course of a season. And it’s not at all unusual for an inferior team to keep it close early on before their relative lack of talent and depth starts to show; I have gotten used in the last few years to Oregon games being close at the half and blowouts at the end.
The USC v LSU game has been moved from Columbia to Baton Rouge due to the flooding. Just as well really, no sense trying to push the limits of the already damaged infrastructure and public safety personnel for a football game. Plus it was going to be a blow out anyway; I suspect we’ll get the home field next time we meet in 2020 by which time we’ll have a new coach (Is Phil Fulmer available?) and a better team.
USC’s offense looked damn near unstoppable coming into that game and then they just laid a complete turd on the field. Calls for Sark’s job should be coming soon, if not already.
As a fan of a team that’s already beaten Washington and has USC coming up in 3 weeks, I view this development with a great deal of pleasant surprise and good cheer.
Shoot, anytime USC loses is cause for celebration.