Young and I wouldn’t think about it for 2 seconds, personally. His size isn’t even what worries me, it’s his arm strength. But I would feel so dumb if I took one of the other guys and then he just kept doing what he’s always done. Sometimes you just take the free square I think.
When you say size, it’s not just one thing. He’s small, so you have to build an offense around it, which limits your options. He’s small, and therefore has to spend a lot of time on his tip toes, this hurts his ability to release it quickly and get a strong base to drive the ball. Overall is arm strength is poor, his margin for error is very small. He’s small, so his ability to stay on the field is a huge question mark. He’s small, which means he has to break structure and scramble more often than other QBs, which means injuries are more likely. He’s not just short, he’s skinny, comparing him to Kyler or Tua is not realistic. Kyler and Tua are a lot bigger, and they can’t stay healthy.
I know that for some the tape is all that matters, but college is not the pros. Maybe Bryce can become a unicorn. But we’ve literally never seen a guy his size succeed at QB. I think he’s going to be a bust, but even if you buy the college production translating, you have to concede that he’s an outlier and a risk. The 1st or 2nd overall pick shouldn’t come with that kind of question mark. Even if he defies history and plays 15+ games a season, I don’t see how he’s beating Mahomes on Sundays. There’s a ceiling there.
Drew Brees would be the poster child for small quarterbacks being successful, but google says he had 2" and 16 pounds on Young. (6’0" 210 vs 5’10" 194.) If you were going to group QB sizes by tier I think they’d be in the same tier, but “Drew Brees, except 2” shorter and 16 lbs lighter" would definitely give me pause.
Doug Flutie was the same height and 13 pounds lighter. Flutie was fine, but not exactly what you’re looking for in a top 3 pick.
Bryce’s Combine weight was complete bullshit too. Dude probably swallowed some ball bearings and wore a giant tungsten butt plug. Most people close to the program say his playing weight was closer to 185.
Do these guys look like they are within a couple pounds of each other?
And here’s Drew.
Goddamn he looks small in the preview image for the video you linked. I think I agree with you about his weight; so basically the same height and weight as Doug Flutie.
I mean, like I said before, Flutie was fine. Good, even. But even with a crystal ball seeing how good he would be in the pros, I don’t think I draft him in the top 10.
EDIT: Crap, this week totally got away from me. Draft starts in less than 24 hours!
Speaking of weight, this dude has a 1st round grade at CB and weighed in at the Combine at 166.
I mean, wow.
Russell Wilson was really good for a decade, and he’s only an inch taller at 5’11”. (Though he weighs 215 and it’s muscle weight.) I don’t think height is necessarily an issue, but being so light might be.
Russ was obviously successful, but the wheels came off comparatively young, Debatable how much his size has to do with that, but he’s not looking like the prototype you want to follow at this point.
Personally, I think it’s because too much of his game relied on his legs. I don’t think his size had too much to do with that.
It’s chicken and egg. Short QBs need to run more because they have a harder time with dump offs over the middle to RBs and TEs. Short QBs take deeper dropbacks so they can see and throw over the line which reduces their opportunities to step up into a pocket. They also end up with a lot more designed roll outs, again, because they want to avoid batted balls and create clear line of sight to the secondary.
These are all very valid points. Do you think certain GMs/teams fall in love with one aspect of a player (like the cog test) and get blinders? I can’t imagine they don’t see what everyone else sees. Maybe I give them too much credit.
Maybe they fall in love with an arm or legs (Al Davis and JaMarcus Russell is a big cautionary story) but the cognition test?
No, just no.
Like many things in life, the cognition test does not tell you if somebody will work out. But it does provide one more way to raise red flags. Basically, you won’t draft a QB based on primarily the test results but you might talk yourself out of drafting one if the result is bad. It’s just another data point but one that can only really hurt a player’s draft chances, not help them.
I think y’all are overthinking this. One very basic measure of college QBs is college success. It’s not a 100% foolproof thing, but a QB who has success at one of the big powerhouse schools has achieved that success for a reason (an arm, smarts, leadership, legs, whatever). A lot of times, whatever made them successful in college does not translate well to the NFL but, in general, you will do better starting from that pool of players.
It’s Bill Parcells’ old formula. Find a QB who started in 3 seasons, won at least 23 games out of at least 30 games started for a team in a major conference, with a 2-1 TD-INT ratio, and 60% pass completion rate, and you’ve probably found at least a solid option. Again, not 100% foolproof but a decent formula. Nothing in there about height (though he would probably have to think about that one).
Once you start talking measurables (height, number of reps, 40 times, etc), you’re sizing up dinner, not a player.
6’00" Drew Brees, who passed for 80,000 yards, had 753 yards rushing … in his entire career. Complete statute and 6’4" Tom Brady had 1123 yards rushing his career. Complete statute and 6’5" Phillip Rivers had 609 yards rushing. All three averaged 1.6 or 1.7 attempts per game.
Meanwhile, 6’3" Justin Fields, 6’2" Lamar Jackson, 6’2" Jalen Hurts, 6’5" Cam Newton, 6’5" Josh Allen, and 6’4" Trey Lance all had more rushing attempts per game than 5’10" Kyler Murray.
I’ll also note that, although there is a lack of actual data on drop back depth, this site indicates that 6’0" Brees had a comparable average dropback depth to the NFL average.
Offensive line play, the QB’s skill set, and offensive playcalling have a ton more to do with a QB “running more” or “deeper dropbacks” than height does.
I finally got around to watching a bit of game tape of Anthony Richardson. Dude’s athleticism just pops off the screen. As does his inaccuracy (53% career completion percentage) and inability to protect the ball (9 interceptions). He’ll make the wow plays you love, then just flat out miss guys. A lot.
He’s a more athletic Mitchell Trubisky. Big, strong, very good runner, hard to bring down, and excels at playground football when stuff breaks down. His lack of experience (one year starter after he couldn’t beat out Emory Jones at Florida), injury history (part of the reason he couldn’t beat out Emory Jones), and poor passing would make him nothing but an intriguing longterm prospect to me, but you can clearly see the appeal of his athleticism. Just like you could with see the athleticism of Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, and Cam Newton. Which one he’ll actually develop into will be interesting to watch.
I usually try to do a “my guys/your guys” post about the draft, but I have done next to none actual research this year. So I’ll just say that Anthony Richardson is a your guy, Michael Wilson (WR Stanford ) is a my guy, and best of luck to all of them.
I will, however, include the list of my favorite names from this years’ draft:
Bumper Pool
Jordan Battle
YaYa Diaby
Nick Herbig
Andrew Voorhees
Kyu Blu Kelly
Carrington Valentine
Juice Skruggs
Jake Bobo
Jaxon Player
Enjoy!
Please tell me this is his actual, given name and not a nickname.
Not his given name, but it is his legal name. According to Wikipedia, he had it legally changed to Bumper James Morris Pool.
Amazing. I hope the Patriots draft him in the first round!
Question for Bears fans: Among all the likely and plausible scenarios for tonight’s first round, what’s the result that will most disappoint you?
My choice is taking Skoronski at #9. He’s my least favorite of the top 4 offensive linemen because he may be better equipped to be a guard than an OT. If we trade down and end up with him, OK, at least we added more picks. But I’ll be pretty deflated if we straight up pick him without a trade back.
Bijan and it’s not that close.
Which of course means that’s exactly what’s going to happen.