I’m responding to you here instead of in the FBI Search thread because this is a broader thread in which to discuss consequences from Trump’s efforts to overturn the election and fallout from the documents case as well.
I’m definitely less sure about the nominee half of the prediction than the one about the general election, but here’s why I think what I think:
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As you pointed out, it’s still quite early. Most voters aren’t even paying that much attention. I’d guess most just reflexively respond, “Trump,” when asked who they prefer as their nominee.
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The Moneyed Class™, which includes people like Mitch McConnell, the Kochs and other big bux donors, don’t want him. He’s too unpredictable and selfish. He won’t play for their team, because Trump recognizes no team except himself. That makes him dangerous – even to them. They were prepared to back DeSantis, but DeSantis blew it. The MC has now turned its gaze upon Tim Scott. Notice who’s moving up in the polls lately? Keep an eye on that.
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Trump’s support is softening. It’s slow, but the evidence is in the waning crowds. You’ll notice he only “campaigns” in places where he’s sure to bring in a large number of MAGAs, such as Florida and South Carolina. He’s also been unable to rouse the dangerous faithful. Many of their leaders are now serving lengthy prison sentences, so there are fewer people to organize the hate into a cohesive attack force. Trump tried hard to marshal such a force for the dates of his arraignments in both Manhattan and Florida. None materialized. That’s telling.
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It becomes very hard for most people to ignore mounting evidence. Some will doubtless cling to the misinformation being promulgated by Fox and other batshit crazy “news” sources, but the more often actual evidence prevails, the harder it gets to keep bullshitting yourself. The Fox settlement with Dominion demonstrated this. The Meadows texts behind Trump’s back with various other Trump people showing how they were laughing about the stolen election claims demonstrate this too. Clearly Trump’s people view him as a crackpot behind his back. As more evidence of Trump’s crimes and cynicism comes to light, the more his supporters will quietly turn their backs to him and look for a different MAGAt to take up their cause. That’s why all these chickenshit Trump wannabes such as DeSantis and Scott won’t criticize him and won’t drop out of the race. They want those voters when Trump sinks out of sight.
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Trump fatigue. While they won’t say so on the record, a hell of a lot of Republicans and even fervent supporters are getting sick of the Trump show and privately wish he would just go away. This sentiment will grow as he continues to fleece the rubes of their hard-earned dollars for no greater purpose than to pay his mounting legal bills. He’s burning through the money for sure.
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These indictments/court appearances/trials are going to bury him. And at some point, a federal judge is going to muzzle him from tainting the jury pool with his constant incitement to violence against DOJ/FBI officials. If he fails to obey, he will be jailed. Those will be some rough days, but it’s a corner that must be turned.
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I expect a lot of the Trump rabble rousers are also going to get scooped up in these investigations/prosecutions. Think Steve Bannon, Mike Flynn, Stephen Miller, Roger Stone, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, et. al. These scum turn up everywhere around the rotten, fetid sinkhole that is Trump. With them gone, there will be far fewer instigators of the hate and lies.
The bad news is, Trumpism doesn’t go away with Trump. We’ll be fighting this ongoing attack on our democracy for a very long time. It is what the Republican party has become: A fascist organization that wants to put us all under their boot heels, and in my opinion, we must remain vigilant to prevent it. But one despot at a time, I suppose.