CNN is now throwing Priebus and Bannon into the mix.
You can see how Trump might be fantasizing about blaming everything on ol’ Reince, who has no powerbase and therefore no real way to fight back.* Yessir, we all knew that Reince had some deal going with someone–we just didn’t realize it was with the Russians! That sneaky guy!*
Bannon would make a much less satisfactory scapegoat–he’d fight back plenty.
Oh God, I laughed right out loud at this one! I almost predicted it…
There are already a lot of parallels to Watergate and there are only going to be more in the months ahead. But what I’m seeing suggests Trump might still keep his base of support, and that’s because a lot of that strength comes from white christian nationalists and other just plain white extremists who really just don’t give a shit about the rule of law; they want someone to pass their agenda. Trump is more than willing to do their bidding.
Trump’s base will probably never vary much from 38%, which is frightening. But it’ll be interesting to see what Congress does now…they may be thinking that now that they’ve got their “tax reform” Trump has ceased to be of any further use.
Tweet courtesy of Patton Oswalt:
Suppose Pence gets ousted before Trump. What’s your bet on who gets the VP job? AIUI Trump would nominate someone who would have to be approved by both the House and the Senate.
Who would be in the small group of people that Trump would nominate and both House and Senate would approve? I’m having trouble coming up with anyone with the current Congressional makeup, and approval could well go into 2019. I have no clear idea of what Congress will look like then.
Does Ryan have to be reapproved as Speaker after new members are seated in 2019? If so, is he a shoo-in?
I keep flashing back to 1974. If I had a time machine, I’d go back to spring of 1973 and place a lot of bets that before the 1976 election Gerald Ford would be POTUS. I think I could get the kind of odds that would turn me into a very wealthy woman.
One Seth Abrahamson has been running a fascinating Twitter commentary on all this for some time now. Today’s pinned thread is up over 100 posts so far, and it’s a doozy.
- Yes.
- Kinda depends on what the new Congress looks like.
a) If the Dems regain the House, then they get to choose the Speaker. In all likelihood, Nancy Pelosi gets the gavel back.
b) If something weird happens between now and fall 2018 where the Dem gains are minimal, then Ryan probably keeps control.
c) If the GOP hangs on, but just barely, the districts the GOP loses will be its most moderate districts, so there’ll be a higher proportion of radicals in the GOP caucus. In this scenario, I see Ryan losing the speakership to someone more overtly conservative. (Not that there’s that much ideological difference. But once a radical has been in power for a few years, he doesn’t look and feel so radical anymore. So the other radicals want someone new.)
Dumb question. Did Flynn plead guilty to a felony? Or was it reduced? Will this have any effect on his military benefits?
From a procedural perspective, the move to get rid of Pence is only useful if the two events are close in time: Pence first, so he can’t pardon Trump, then Trump impeachment recommendation to Congress as soon as possible after. There may be impediments to doing this that I’m not aware of, but I’ve always thought Pence has far more exposure than most people realize. Mueller flat has him cold on obstruction re Trump’s Rosenstein memo for why he fired Comey. That’s already all a matter of public record. Pence lied and lied and lied. And unlike a sitting president, the vice president doesn’t have a path to immunity from indictment.
I wouldn’t expect the process of VP nomination to even play out, because Mueller would move quickly to wrap up Trump shortly after he’s already got Kushner and Pence. If Trump tried to rush a VP nomination… I can’t even imagine who he might nominate that would pass muster through both houses of Congress – and be acceptable to Trump.
Paul Ryan is the only potential I can even think of, but there are a lot of problems with even that terribly unimaginative pick. And what would be the point, if Ryan takes the seat after Pence anyway? We’re just in uncharted territory here. Honestly, I have no idea. Trump hates everyone in the establishment, and no one else would make it through Congressional approval.
He does have to be renominated/elected as speaker in 2019, and that’s assuming a) that Republicans remain in the majority in the House (doubtful in my opinion); and b) he still even has his seat. There are already little rumblings (WaPo) about ousting Ryan as Speaker emanating from the batshit Freedom Caucus. And Ryan [has a fight on his hands just to keep his seat in Wisconsin](has a fight on his hands just to keep his seat in Wisconsin:). (Randy Bryce youtube)
You most assuredly could!! 
My fantasy would be that the America-hating fuckstick administration hang on by its fingernails through next year; the Dems take the House in the midterms; Pelosi takes up the Speaker’s gavel. The following day, a political bombshell goes up, implicating Pence in criminal activity in Indiana, leading to his forced resignation. The next morning, the America-hating fuckstick keels over dead at the breakfast table.
That afternoon, President Pelosi is sworn into office.
Also, I get a pony in this scenario.
Works for me, except I’m not really interested in a pony. Can I have a winning Powerball ticket instead?
Just saw a story that the White House is saying Obama authorized Flynn to talk to the Russians.
Sad!
That doesn’t even pass the laugh test. Flynn had been persona non grata with the Obama administration since 2014, and was currently working for the America-hating fuckstick.
Yabbut the cultist base will eat it up, wanna bet?
Would the Hiss Act apply to Flynn? Also, couldn’t the Army could recall him to active duty and bust him back to E2?
No, that would be a bad idea. Once given, that power would never be let go, and there are people I like who’d be endangered by it.
To mark the Flynn plea…: Cop Rock ~ "He's Guilty" - YouTube
If I understand your link correctly, the Hiss Act applies to members of Congress, which Flynn isn’t, so, no.
It’s my understanding that, legally, retirement from the military confers lifetime membership in the Reserves, entailing benefits (like the right to medical treatment in military facilities and access to military bases, commissaries, and exchanges) as well as obligations, such as being subject to the UCMJ for life (as well as eligibility for recall to active duty).